SURVEY: Coronavirus, is the gov’t doing enough?

[Haecksler]

11 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

20% of what.... if 20% ended up in ARDS with a lack of resources... the mortality rate would not be 2% it would be significantly higher.

 

Advanced models indicate that while the current confirmed cases are 15,000, the number of actual cases are likely north of 200,000.   There are likely lots of people not showing up in the numbers at all right now because you can have it and be without symptoms (a troubling thing if you are trying to track contacts). 

 

You can also have it and test negative...  so the tests themselves are fallible.

 

What is the source for your 20% number?

 

I think I found the source for the 20% number, but you are misinterpreting it.   Of those that went to hospital, and were admitted to hospital then 20%+ cases were sever and required ICU or had ARDS.  The problem with quoting that number in isolation is the vast majority of those infected would NOT go to hospital and NOT be admitted to hospital but just be quarantined at home.

Quite good point how ever without heaving secured raw data everything is just a guess.

The source came from the result from the very first 41 cases and the subsequent 91 cases as far as I know so where Chinese doctors had secured data.  Follow this link it says many but nothing.

https://dailyblocks.com/r/videos/comments/euy2yq/dr_gabriel_leung_dean_of_medicine_dire_projection/

What we know is that the virus makes sick and in some cases very sick. Further more it is highly contagious if you have it you might spread it to your family and friends. If really the sh...t hits the fan you might have problems to find help in case you are very sick. Happen right now in china. How many people die because the virus we don't know, how many people are infected we don't know.

What we know for sure we can not trust the numbers either from Chinese nor from any other "democratic elected" Government in this region.

 

[DrTuner]

3 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

I think the biggest risk is that this mutates into a more deadly version and makes a reappearance the following year or the year after that.

As long as Chinese keep messing with the wildlife, the Chinese gift is a gift that keeps giving. 17 years between SARS and this, I expect the intervals to get smaller as they encroach more forests. Not to mention arooyyaroooyy bat soup and civet fry.

[zydeco]

16 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

One may say people don't die from the virus but they die from complications caused by the virus which would be a good way to keep the numbers to an absolute minimum.How would we know?

Apparently, that is what they do in China.

[RBOP]

22 hours ago, RBOP said:

Yes I agree with you. That's the pattern I also see and its been exponential growth since January 25. Maybe they will release new numbers in a day or 2.  

6 more confirmations just announced bringing it to 25.  Continues to grow exponentially (I updated the graph below). Will the government implement stricter draconian mitigation measures in the coming days or wait and see?

[bkkcanuck8]

23 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

One may say people don't die from the virus but they die from complications caused by the virus which would be a good way to keep the numbers to an absolute minimum.How would we know?

OK, you don't trust Chinese numbers - so exclude them and recalculate mortality rate.

 

There are 153 infections out of China and 1 death, or a mortality rate of 0.6%

 

[DrTuner]

38 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

There are 153 infections out of China and 1 death, or a mortality rate of 0.6%

I don't trust those either, let's say 5000 infections and 1 death, 0.02%. That's my guess for today, it'll rise as the infection takes hold.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Quote

Death rate among patients admitted to hospital

A study found that out of 41 admitted hospital patients who had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in China, 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.^[5]

Days from first symptom to death

The China National Health Commission reported the details of the first 17 deaths up to 24 pm 22 Jan 2020. A study of these cases found that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days.^[6]

 

It's just a matter of time before Thailand gets it's first casualties.

[bkkcanuck8]

34 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I don't trust those either, let's say 5000 infections and 1 death, 0.02%. That's my guess for today, it'll rise as the infection takes hold.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

 

It's just a matter of time before Thailand gets it's first casualties.

OK, you don't trust the numbers - only your gut... nothing but your gut can be trusted.

 

If you compare it to SARS, it was very evident early on it was going to have a high mortality rate ... in fact early on the mortality rate was thought to be much higher but settled down to 10% overall.  This does does not have the same 'feel' (higher transmission). 

 

I suspect this Coronavirus will mutate over time (there will likely be slightly different strains) and those that don't kill quickly or at all are going to be transmitted more widely basically out competing the ones that are more deadly.... and the mortality numbers will decrease as the pandemic continues.

 

An ordinary flu kills substantial amounts of people.  Using CDC averages (1st world numbers) your average flu season kills between 12,000 and 61,000 per year.  It results in between 140,000 to 810,000 hospitalizations per year, and infects between 9,300,000 to 45,000,000 (lower because the strains are recurring and there is some immunity)... 

 

Now adjust for the population difference (not taking into account the higher density in China) of 4.3 times the population you could expect the average flu season in China to product the following numbers: 51,600 to 262,000 deaths; 602,000 to 3,483,000 hospitalizations; 39,990,000 to 193,500,000 infections.

 

So of course there will be deaths -- that is a given.  But even with these annual numbers it hardly rises to even being newsworthy... The difference is the level of panic in people at something new...

 

Though if you truly believe in your gut... and you own property - sell it now, you will be able to buy it back cheaper after everyone's dead.

Edited February 4, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[DrTuner]

46 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Though if you truly believe in your gut... and you own property - sell it now, you will be able to buy it back cheaper after everyone's dead.

There's a flaw in your logic - can't buy it back because all sellers are dead.

 

Anyway, I agree with you that in it's current form this virus isn't deadlier than SARS, it's more contagious though. It might be deadlier then the influenzas once it does go endemic, which seems inevitable at this point. We'll see in a couple of years.

[tominbkk]

Can't answer because I gave not seen a plan from the government yet.

[bkkcanuck8]

9 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

There's a flaw in your logic - can't buy it back because all sellers are dead.

 

Anyway, I agree with you that in it's current form this virus isn't deadlier than SARS, it's more contagious though. It might be deadlier then the influenzas once it does go endemic, which seems inevitable at this point. We'll see in a couple of years.

Even better - free to squat - back to squatter's rights. 

 

Errrr.... no we won't have to wait a couple of years... It will take at most 4 months to spread this year (doubling of 6.4 days calculates to 6.2 billion people in 4 months). This virus family has broken out several times over the years (4 strains cause the colds, 1 is MERS, 1 is SARS and this one is this one).   The highest probability is this year will be the worst since we have not built up immunity to this virus or related viruses - that is the reason why it has a higher risk to it.  In a year this will likely also be able to be included in the annual flu vaccine if necessary.

[DrTuner]

24 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

In a year this will likely also be able to be included in the annual flu vaccine if necessary.

Perhaps, if they finish the research that went into hibernation when they got SARS in control: https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/sars-vaccine-could-be-stopgap-measure-against-the-new-coronavirus-study . Would be a good outcome if they do.

[Sunderland]

Richard Barrow ???????? ???????? (@RichardBarrow) Tweeted:

Dr Thanarak Plipat (Ministry of Public Health): Local transmission cases in #Thailand could now continue for 1-2 months. We could now see daily infections at an increasing rate.

 

#ไวรัสโคโรน่า #coronavirus @FCCThai https://t.co/yJELlF6jro https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1224673747493220352?s=20

[Sunderland]

Richard Barrow ???????? ???????? (@RichardBarrow) Tweeted:

Dr Thanarak Plipat (Ministry of Public Health): It could take 5-6 months before the #coronavirus peaks in #Thailand. So the worst is yet to come.

 

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1224677735429074944?s=20

[Sunderland]

Government ministers cannot agree if there is a shortage of masks or not.

 

I would not trust the opinion, knowledge or supposed expertise of a single member of this government. 

 

Rotten to the core and lives will be lost due to their utter incompetence.

[bkkcanuck8]

54 minutes ago, Sunderland said:

Government ministers cannot agree if there is a shortage of masks or not.

 

I would not trust the opinion, knowledge or supposed expertise of a single member of this government. 

 

Rotten to the core and lives will be lost due to their utter incompetence.

The ministers that have lots of masks in their safe at home - know there is no shortage... while those that did not get any and keep them stocked at home... know there is a shortage

[PatOngo]

https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/its-easy-to-prevent-chinas-developing-neighbours-downplay-coronavirus-concerns/news-story/91244b15fcdca2a8eefbf107275ef720

[Assurancetourix]

I would be curious to know the nationality of the 22 members of this forum who believe that the government is doing enough ...

 

[Tayaout]

18 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

I would be curious to know the nationality of the 22 members of this forum who believe that the government is doing enough ...

 

Chinese. 

[Moo 2]

Yes, the Government says "it's 100% under control". Bring them in!