Virologist says measures must be implemented for one year to address coronavirus

[rabas]

1 minute ago, englishoak said:

Literally Hundreds of vids are out there showing people dropping dead in China THEY ARE LYING TO YOU and they are deleting posts that reveal the truth.. this virus is far more deadly than they claim....

Someone from Wuhan has now explained that many of these people picked off the streets by medical workers are not necessarily dead. The nCoV2019 has been shown to also infect the heart (~7%  in early studies) and they are suffering from heart failure (heart not functioning correctly).

 

Viral heart infections are well known. In this case they occur because  nCoV2019 infects deep in the lungs closer to the heart.

[englishoak]

Just now, rabas said:

Someone from Wuhan has now explained that many of these people picked off the streets by medical workers are not necessarily dead. The nCoV2019 has been shown to also infect the heart (~7%  in early studies) and they are suffering from heart failure (heart not functioning correctly).

 

Viral heart infections are well known. In this case they occur because  nCoV2019 infects deep in the lungs closer to the heart.

This is true 

 

Problem is there is no room in the hospitals and bodybags arnt stretchers, I know and can see the difference. People are going to 4 or 5 hospitals and being turned away and told if they dont have the test then they arnt positive... they have run out of test kits in most places..ambulances arnt being deployed for other conditions and problems and it all compounds things on an already over burdened system.

 

The killer is going to be an over burdened system to cope, people are unable to get the help they need when they need it, and so it spreads even more throughout the body.  

 

Its coping thats the main problem but it also makes things worse and gives the virus more chance to mutate and spread

[0815]

14 hours ago, monkfish said:

Well I am very relieved to hear that maybe you should tell China as they're on lockdown and probably overreacting.
I think a TV member said something similar on today mmm.

TVMs get the most relevant information from their magic beer and whisky glasses ? <deleted>...

[hotchilli]

14 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

so it's a disease for the old?

 

that could be a problem

 

we're not all young around here 

 

Thailand has it's fair share of elderly people and most of them are lets be fair "not in the best of condition'

so the mortality rate if it takes hold could be quite high.

Japans over 60's equates to about 30% of the population... that's got to be causing some anxiety!

[Elkski]

How does the population immune system get ready for this.   What is this guy smoking?  

[Jimbo2014]

At 20% cumulative growth in cases each day I dont see how we have a year to implement measures.  Maybe thats the case in some countries like Australia that are implementing reasonable measures but certainly not the case for Thailand with its Baht before Health attitude.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

Any guesswork based on statistics i.e. number of infected vs number of dead is completely meaningless. The only known facts we have is that studies in early patients have showed a 15% and a 11% mortality rate. On the bright side - (an inconclusive) study has shown that Asian men are far more likely to be impacted than women or whites/blacks - which could explain the huge numbers in China but relatively low numbers in other countries. We will know for sure in a week or two.

 

[OffshoreMig]

Whats missing is the nodal points of transmission, Where and how is the infection predominately being transmitted.  I think China is doing an amasing job under the circumstances.   I hate to think how bad it could be had they not acted when they did  It is still early days. 

[zydeco]

16 hours ago, DrTuner said:

A-ha, so that's why they deleted the number of pending lab results from the daily reports. Easy to minimize the count when you don't give any results. In other words, pure Thai, 'let's wait and see if it goes away'.

 

Brought to you courtesy of Xinhua: https://www.thaienquirer.com/7301/thai-media-is-outsourcing-much-of-its-coronavirus-coverage-to-beijing-and-thats-just-the-start/

Can't bump this link enough. People need to read this and pass it on.

[JRUSA]

I was told by the husband of a wife stuck in China that it is a man made virus. Got loose. Sound plausible?

[ThaiBunny]

5 minutes ago, JRUSA said:

I was told by the husband of a wife stuck in China that it is a man made virus. Got loose. Sound plausible?

I love a good conspiracy theory. Any more information? Was it the CIA or the Chinese equivalent that manufactured it?

[CGW]

22 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

I love a good conspiracy theory. Any more information? Was it the CIA or the Chinese equivalent that manufactured it?

Nothing like a good "conspiracy theory" to scoff at ???? "Governments would never lie to us ????

They love people that believe, think they call them "sheep' ?

Pure coincide:- 

"In January 2018, China's first maximum security virology laboratory (biosecurity level 4) designed for the study of the world's most dangerous pathogens opened its doors — in Wuhan.^41,42 Is it pure coincidence that Wuhan City is now the epicenter of this novel coronavirus infection?"

[WaveHunter]

4 hours ago, rabas said:

Here is another scientific study released by Lancet that correctly measured the death rate at 14.6%. Not sure how to say it more clearly.

Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China

You are NOT interpreting this study correctly.  At present, the "Confirmed Fatality Rate (CFR)" of nCoV is NOT 14.6%.  The death rate referred to in the Lancet paper was for a cohort of 41 cases that had gone on to develop serious complications (pneumonia and ARDS). 

 

Since only 20% of those admitted to hospital as "confirmed" cases of nCoV go on to develop serious complications requiring ICU care, the actual death rate for the virus (comparing deaths to confirmed cases) would be much lower than this.  In this cohort study, it is really comparing "serious complication" cases with deaths.

 

In order to know the Confirmed Fatality Rate (CFR) of any disease you must be able to compare total number of deaths against total number of confirmed cases.  You can not do this until the outbreak has played its' course due to the lag time of incubation.  It can only be known from a historical perspective, after the outbreak has peaked.  In the case of nCoV, that may not occur until April.

 

A far more informative white paper from Lancet has just been released involving a 99 case cohort study.  I'll post the link shortly.

Edited February 5, 2020 by WaveHunter

[rabas]

35 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

In order to know the Confirmed Fatality Rate (CFR) of any disease you must be able to compare total number of deaths against total number of confirmed cases.  You can not do this until the outbreak has played its' course due to the lag time of incubation. 

I believe I pointed this out with exquisite clarity in my post just below the first one.

 

As for to 41 cohort study, this was a closed study in that all 41 cases were either dead or recovered. Their outcome is known. You are correct about sampling issues, but, no one will ever have statistics on all the patients that never reported to a hospital or were not recorded correctly. Even today, numbers for the Spanish flu as mostly estimates. There will never  be exact figures, for 1918 or 2019.

 

Thus the 10% - 14% numbers now reported several times are useful working estimates. Much better than saying there is no problem, especially with the deep lung infections, heart infections, and new reports of cytokine storms in some healthy patients.

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by rabas

[Mikeasq60]

My daughter works in a hospital in Massachusetts USA, and I asked her whats the hospital doing about this coronavirus. Her response was normal precautions wash your hands and try to avoid people coughing and sneezing. In other words carry on your life just use normal precautions. I honestly dont know whats going on with this SCARE because I believe this virus is being overblown! The cold kills more people than this.

[FarFlungFalang]

5 hours ago, miamiman123 said:

The Baht getting weaker and the coronavirus getting stronger??? That’s what I’m talking about ha! 

Baht has strengthened slightly against the Aussie dollar!Ha!

[WaveHunter]

REGARDING DEATH RATE for nCoV:  A lot of misinformation is going around about "death rate" figures.  Again for those who keep harping on a specific death rate figure for nCoV, there is no valid number right now since it requires comparing actual deaths against the number of confirmed cases, and that is not possible to do in an ongoing outbreak involving incubation lag time.

 

However, it is possible to correlate Serious Complication cases (i.e.: those with pneumonia and/or ARDS) with deaths.  The most valid study to date is this one (published on Lancet):

 

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study

 

Again, the death rate discussed here is NOT the mortality rate of those infected; it is the fatality rate of those who have gone to to develop serious complications requiring ICU care (i.e.: pneumonia and ARDS), which in the case of nCoV appears to be about 20% of those confirmed to be infected.

 

SInce this new 99 case study is more granular than the previous 41 case study which showed a 15% mortality rate, the 11% mortality found in the 99 case study is probably more indicative of predictive mortality rate based on the scoring system that was assigned.

 

The clinical features that predict mortality are discussed and this scoring system has been assigned (MuLBSTA Score).  Each clinical feature is given a score and the combined total score gave a prediction of mortality rate. 

 

The clinical features and assigned scores were:

• Both lungs involved - 5 points
• Lymphocytes < 0.8 - 4 points
• Bacterial co-infection - 4 points
• Acute Smoker (active smoker) - 3 points
• Quit Smoker (former smoker) - 2 points
• Hypertension - 2 points
• Age > 60 - 2 points

Total Score and Mortality Rate:

• A score of 0 indicates chance of mortality at 0.47%
• A score of 6 was 2.9%
• A score of 12 was 15%
• A score  22 points was greater than 69% mortality rate

 

 

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by WaveHunter

[tomauasia]

Totally ignorant government. Like a Thai hooker that knows she has Chlymidia but doesn't care. Fools 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

14 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

 

It is promising to see an end point in April, but very troubling to consider what will occur between now and then, not only in China, but in all nations of the world because this IS a pandemic now by definition of the word, and how serious a one it will be depends on people making the right decisions, right now.

 

WH, was their projection of the April peak just for China alone, or for the world?

 

If for China alone, then all the other places and countries, including Thailand, are going to have presumably sequentially longer times to peak and resolution, because they were later starters in the process, so to speak.

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[DrTuner]

29 minutes ago, tomauasia said:

Totally ignorant government. Like a Thai hooker that knows she has Chlymidia but doesn't care. Fools 

Pretty accurate analogy.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 hours ago, zydeco said:

Can't bump this link enough. People need to read this and pass it on.

That's a quite interesting and well written article...

 

I'd just have one comment on Teeranai's comment from Khaosod EN:

 

Quote

Now the Thai media has another option, to hear from Chinese people directly. From the perspective of Thai media, that benefits our coverage.”

 

When you get content from these kinds of Chinese sources, you're not getting content from "Chinese people directly." You're getting content and facts and spin from an entity and people under the control and influence of the Chinese government and its propaganda arms...

 

[WaveHunter]

3 hours ago, OffshoreMig said:

Whats missing is the nodal points of transmission, Where and how is the infection predominately being transmitted.  I think China is doing an amasing job under the circumstances.   I hate to think how bad it could be had they not acted when they did  It is still early days. 

With all due respect, I think Chinese government (CCP) has done an absolutely horrible job to date.  I say "government", not people.  I love China.  I visit often and I have many friends there.  What the doctors, scientists, nurses, and journalists are doing there right now is awe-inspiring, courageous, and even heroic.  Especially those who are trying to make the public and the world aware of the true extent of this crisis, and doing this at their own peril of government censorshp and even arrest under the Chinese "Rumors Law" 

 

What the Central Government (CCP) is doing and how they have handled this so far is absolutely deplorable!

 

The first reports of human involvement occurred back in early December yet the government not only did nothing but they began aggressively censoring and even arresting doctors, scientists, and journalist who started voicing concerns. 

 

Even after over 50 cases had been confirmed, the government was still actively promoting a record-breaking open air banquet of over 100,000 people in which they all would be gathered in close quarters sharing dishes of food and eating utensils.  This banquet was located only 7km from the marketplace where the virus was originally believed to be the source location!

 

It was only when the first international cases began to be reported that you saw the government's "reported" cases of infection begin to surge daily. 

 

Even when they finally announced a "lockdown" of Wuhan (almost a month after the first reported cases), they waited far too long to do so, even though they knew that with the Lunar New Year approaching, the largest annual migration of people in the world was about to occur.

 

By the time of the "announced" lockdown of the city, over 5 million people had left the city of Wuhan, many of whom travelled internationally.  And even worse, the announcement was made a day before it was put in place, allowing over 200,000 vehicles to flee the city!  Many of those people are infected as evidenced in city seeding of the virus in all provinces of China now, and around the globe too!  It is now a true pandemic by definition.  So containment has failed, and failed miserably!

 

You should be aware that the actual number of infected people that have yet to be confirmed in Wuhan is estimated to be around 75,000 people...yes that is correct, 75,000, and possible as many as 133,000!  This is according to expert epidemiology computer modeling, as published in Lancet a few days ago, the most respected and trusted source of medical information in the world.  

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext.

 

What the Chinese government has done is NOT what I would call an "amasing" job! 

 

Some will say, "OK, they made some mistakes early on, but now they are stepping up to the plate in an earnest attempt to do the right thing".  But they are not!  They continue to cover up the true extent of this crisis with misinformation regarding confirmed cases and actual deaths and a lot of "happy face" proclamations and video footage of citizens cheering their efforts.  It is pure and obvious political propaganda that the ruling party (CCP) are experts at doing in such crises.  It is a template that is repeated over and over again by the ruling class party (CCP).

 

Why has the Chinese government virtually censored all independent media from covering what is happening?  Why has the US Government's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) offer of assistance been completely ignored by the Chinese government?  The reason is very clear.  They are hoping to somehow get a handle on things and don't want anyone from the outside to be allowed in to see what's really going, until they are able to do so...and they are failing miserably!

 

The virus has now spread to ALL provinces and new epicenters have now developed.  Containment, according to many experts is now impossible and international seeding is already occurring.  Many experts are saying that the end game will be in April for the outbreak to peak, and it will do so, not because of effective containment but mostly due to the natural "herd immunity" effect.

 

In other words, the crisis will end despite what the Chinese are doing!  Sorry to sound so jaded, but this is how things work in China.  In every viral outbreak, they never act proactively when such actions could work, they wait until there is a true crisis, and then react, but their goal is not for the good of their citizens, but what will best assure their power over them, and what will best "save face"  Look at the history of the Communist Party of China (CCP) in similar crises; it is a template that they repeat over and over, and over again!

Edited February 5, 2020 by WaveHunter

[natway09]

What are the chances of China telling the WHO the real extent of the virul spread ?

None, they tried to hide it from the outset (in which time they lost nearly 6 weeks of combat time) & just release whimsical figures to placate the rest of the world.

Stay safe folks, the next 6 months will tell

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

From the NYT today:

 

Quote

Experts warn they still lack enough data to say definitively how lethal the new coronavirus is. Many residents in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak and the capital of Hubei Province, believe the death toll is much higher than the official tally because people with flulike symptoms are being turned away by overstretched hospitals. The health care system in Wuhan is so overwhelmed that many cases have not been diagnosed because of a shortage of testing kits.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

 

[WaveHunter]

Sorry to go on here, but the real tragedy of this is that many people are going to needlessly die before April when the outbreak is expected to peak.  Considering that the estimated total number of infected people in Wuhan alone is 75,000 and possibly many more (according the the Lancet article I mentioned in previous post), the "serious complication rate" (those who are confirmed to be infected, and then go on to develop serious complications requiring ICU care) is considered to be 20% with nCoV.  The real danger is that with such a high number of suspected infections, the number of serious-complication cases requiring ICU care will outnumber the available ICU beds, and the medical care system in Wuhan will be overwhelmed, despite the highly publicized "token" construction of a couple of new hospitals.  When this happens is when the actual mortality rate (whatever it turns out to be once it can be calculated) will simply skyrocket!

[Farangwithaplan]

19 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

so it's a disease for the old?

 

that could be a problem

 

we're not all young around here 

 

Speak for yourself ????

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

49 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

The reason is very clear.  They are hoping to somehow get a handle on things and don't want anyone from the outside to be allowed in to see what's really going, until they are able to do so...and they are failing miserably!

 

The NYT the other day produced a very interesting 4 minute video in which it remote video interviewed 3 Wuhan area Chinese residents -- a student, a doctor in an area hospital and a male resident, plus a 4th resident by audio only. The student is speaking in EN, but the female doctor and the adult guy are speaking Chinese with EN subtitles. It's well worth watching for an honest, uncensored take on what's really going on there. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/asia/100000006947043/wuhan-residents-coronavirus.html

[SkyFax]

16 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Quote

Experts warn they still lack enough data to say definitively how lethal the new coronavirus is. Many residents in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak and the capital of Hubei Province, believe the death toll is much higher than the official tally because people with flulike symptoms are being turned away by overstretched hospitals. The health care system in Wuhan is so overwhelmed that many cases have not been diagnosed because of a shortage of testing kits.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

And the next paragraph in that article is:

 

Still, the number of people in China recovering from the virus is rising, suggesting that the treatment plan may be working. On Tuesday, 262 people left hospitals nationwide. The number of suspected cases has dropped for two days in a row. Officials said they were tracking 3,971 suspected cases, compared with 5,173 cases the day before.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

And the next paragraph in that article is:

 

Still, the number of people in China recovering from the virus is rising, suggesting that the treatment plan may be working. On Tuesday, 262 people left hospitals nationwide. The number of suspected cases has dropped for two days in a row. Officials said they were tracking 3,971 suspected cases, compared with 5,173 cases the day before.

 

The phgs I quoted above were specifically in response to the prior posts in this thread on the subject of the mortality rate... this number vs. that number.

 

The part I posted wasn't intended to be any kind of summary of what's going on with the overall status of the outbreak, etc etc.

 

[SkyFax]

8 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

12 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

And the next paragraph in that article is:

 

Still, the number of people in China recovering from the virus is rising, suggesting that the treatment plan may be working. On Tuesday, 262 people left hospitals nationwide. The number of suspected cases has dropped for two days in a row. Officials said they were tracking 3,971 suspected cases, compared with 5,173 cases the day before.

 

The phgs I quoted above were specifically in response to the prior posts in this thread on the subject of the mortality rate... this number vs. that number.

 

The part I posted wasn't intended to be any kind of summary of what's going on with the overall status of the outbreak, etc etc.

And I was responding specifically to the OP where it stated:

 

"The country has to minimize the number of infected people for as long as possible, until the immune system can rid the body of the virus."