Thai GDP growth forecast for the year slashed

[webfact]

Thai GDP growth forecast for the year slashed

By THE NATION

 

 

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking has revised downward the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year to between 2 per cent and 2.5 per cent from the previously forecast 2.5 to 3 per cent.

 

The revision is in line with the number of local and global uncertainties and risks, particularly the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, according to its statement on Wednesday (Feburary 5).

 

The committee has estimated that if the virus situation drags on for between three to six months, it could cost the Thai tourism sector between Bt108 billion to Bt220 billion.

 

Other risks factors include the protracted delay in the disbursement of the 2020 fiscal budget, the ongoing drought, and impacts from the PM2.5 particulate dust pollution.

 

However, it has maintained the forecast for exports this year to between minus 2 per cent to flat growth.

 

TMB Analytics, an economic analysis division of TMB Bank, has also revised downward its 2020 GDP forecast for Thailand to between 1.7 per cent and 2.1 per cent from 2.7 per cent, due to the impacts from the virus outbreak, the drought, and the delayed budget disbursement.

 

The Cabinet on Tuesday (February 4) approved the Finance Ministry’s proposed measures to mitigate the impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak and global uncertainties on the tourism sector.

 

Among the measures approved is the extension of the deadline for filing personal income tax returns to June this year from March. Companies will be allowed to enjoy tax deductions for expenses on local seminar activities taking place during January-December 31, 2020, with the deduction being two times the actual cost.

 

It also approved the reduction of jet fuel excise tax for domestic flights from Bt4.726 per litre to Bt0.20 per litre until September 30.

 

The Cabinet also approved plans by state-run banks to offer soft loans and extend debt repayment periods to tourism businesses affected by the big decrease in the number of tourists amid the virus outbreak.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30381628

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-02-05

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info

[yokat]

I'm sure they are all very ashamed of having to lower this number, I wonder if they will ever reveal that the economy actually shrank when the situation settles down.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, yokat said:

I'm sure they are all very ashamed of having to lower this number, I wonder if they will ever reveal that the economy actually shrank when the situation settles down.

Economy shrank, only in your dreams!

[petermik]

Baht must be due for an upsurge after that news...........

[saengd]

5 minutes ago, petermik said:

Baht must be due for an upsurge after that news...........

Coincidentally....https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB

[DLock]

It will be revised down every month of this year...

[Scot123]

If they are saying this the situation is a hell of a lot worse. I stopped believing all governments figures and even external figures as these originate from the governments own figures. I personally believe Thailand went into recession almost instantly the military stole the country. Foreign investment that could leave left then when the general stole a foreign gold mine and tried to extort Toyota over the Prius only fuelled the country's demise with out of control immigration targeting foreigners causing those that could leave to leave. Why people still support these people is beyond any modicum of sanity. Forget the hate just look at T's figures when he was in power. 

[Soikhaonoiken]

I think this Government is being very optimistic in the down graded figure, if this virus continues for a longer period Thailand could slip into recession during 2020.

[saengd]

Peoples sheer dislike or hate of people in power cloud their vision of economic fact and cause all sense of balance or logic simply go out the window. It's very satisfying I imagine to be able to vent publicly the degree of disdain for the less than democratically elected policy makers but it doesn't do much for understanding where the economy is or where it's going. And since posters don't believe any of the numbers coming out of any part of government there's no point in recycling the logic about current account surplus, foreign currency reserves and Baht strength, not when the clouded judgement thinks the reality is the exact opposite of those things!

[ThomasThBKK]

18 minutes ago, saengd said:

Peoples sheer dislike or hate of people in power cloud their vision of economic fact and cause all sense of balance or logic simply go out the window. It's very satisfying I imagine to be able to vent publicly the degree of disdain for the less than democratically elected policy makers but it doesn't do much for understanding where the economy is or where it's going. And since posters don't believe any of the numbers coming out of any part of government there's no point in recycling the logic about current account surplus, foreign currency reserves and Baht strength, not when the clouded judgement thinks the reality is the exact opposite of those things!

I don't hate people in power.

 

I dislike people that steal from a whole country.

[Scot123]

6 minutes ago, saengd said:

Peoples sheer dislike or hate of people in power cloud their vision of economic fact and cause all sense of balance or logic simply go out the window. It's very satisfying I imagine to be able to vent publicly the degree of disdain for the less than democratically elected policy makers but it doesn't do much for understanding where the economy is or where it's going. And since posters don't believe any of the numbers coming out of any part of government there's no point in recycling the logic about current account surplus, foreign currency reserves and Baht strength, not when the clouded judgement thinks the reality is the exact opposite of those things!

Most expats or ex~expats who comment on here have lived and watched from the side lines for decades (my self since 2002). What I believe is my own eyes, conversations with Thai people and the comments from people who are involved in businesses in Thailand. Using commonsense and judgement. And the big one "TAKING OFF THE ROSE COLOURED GLASSES". having lived through 2 coups and noticed the instant changes to attitudes and the damage done to the country. I really do love Thailand and it breaks my hart witnessing a country that should have been where Japan now sits or even South Korea is wallowing in a feudal state where it seems to regress and not progress. Being ex military I can not bring myself to see the Thai military more than a mafia ready to be bought for the next pot of gold. Generals earning a Captains wage but becoming billionaires in the military. Yes I think there is a lot on here who knows exactly what is going on but are unable to really comment the truth. 

[saengd]

Great! But none of that changes anything to do with the economics, except you guys don't see it because you're so wrapped up complaining about the aspects of the country you don't like. You can't escape the fact that Thailand's currency has outperformed any for the past year. You can't escape the fact Thailand is consistently operating a current account and trade surplus. You can't escape the fact the BOT Foreign Currency Reserves are twelfth highest in the world at over USD 215 billion. Now, from an economics perspective the country's economy has undeniably had a very good past year at very least and I'm not wearing any colored glasses when I say those things.

 

[FarFlungFalang]

45 minutes ago, Scot123 said:

I think there is a lot on here who knows exactly what is going on but are unable to really comment the truth

That's because we can't handle the truth.

36 minutes ago, saengd said:

You can't escape the fact the BOT Foreign Currency Reserves are twelfth highest in the world at over USD 215 billion. Now, from an economics perspective the country's economy has undeniably had a very good past year at very least and I'm not wearing any colored glasses when I say those things.

I worry the USD 215 billion will disappear down the trough when it looks like it's time for the current bunch of usurpers to get moved on.Thus leaving the incoming lot with an empty piggy bank.

[saengd]

7 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

That's because we can't handle the truth.

I worry the USD 215 billion will disappear down the trough when it looks like it's time for the current bunch of usurpers to get moved on.Thus leaving the incoming lot with an empty piggy bank.

Given the successful track record of BOT's defense of that money, and the very public support from the monarchy of BOT's independence in the past, I would not be too worried that the funds might be diverted.

[PatOngo]

8 hours ago, ThomasThBKK said:

I dislike people that steal from a whole country.

I dislike the people that let them!

[Jimbo2014]

The annual ritual of GDP forcast slashing has begun early this year! 

[RichardColeman]

16 hours ago, webfact said:

The Cabinet also approved plans by state-run banks to offer soft loans and extend debt repayment periods to tourism businesses affected by the big decrease in the number of tourists amid the virus outbreak.

So, dig yourself out of a tourism hole by digging a public spending debt hole. I feel that public hole will pretty much come up somewhere in Glasgow

[saengd]

1 minute ago, RichardColeman said:

So, dig yourself out of a tourism hole by digging a public spending debt hole. I feel that public hole will pretty much come up somewhere in Glasgow

Just out of curiosity, did you ever post anything that is Thai positive, a rhetorical question of course!

[FarFlungFalang]

11 hours ago, ThomasThBKK said:

I dislike people that steal from a whole country.

What about those that steal a whole country?