Finding source of new coronavirus critical to control situation, say medical experts

[webfact]

Finding source of new coronavirus critical to control situation, say medical experts

By The Nation

 

 

The new coronavirus outbreak, called 2019-nCoV, has shaken up the world raising questions as to when it is going to be controlled. 

 

Many people infected with the virus have developed severe pneumonia symptoms in less than two months. The new virus has been found in 28 countries, with more than 30,000 infected in China and around the world, and it has taken more than 600 lives. 

 

Scientists who decoded the genetic material of 2019-nCoV have found that 88-96 per cent of the gene sequence was similar to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), a coronavirus that spread from bats in 2002. Sars infected more than 8,000 people in 17 countries and caused nearly 800 deaths. “Mers” or Middle Eastern Respiratory Disease, which also is a coronavirus, infected 2,500 people in 27 countries and caused 858 deaths.

 

Experts continue to guess how long the 2019-nCoV will continue, but according to data as of February 6, the death rate is still at “2 per cent”.

 

Prof Dr Amorn Leelarasamee, president of Medical Association of Thailand and a specialist in infectious diseases, assessed the trend of the Wuhan coronavirus epidemic according to four assumptions published in the Lancet medical journal. They are:

 

1 The first infected patient who showed up on December 1, 2019 contacted the virus by around the end of November before entering the infection stage. After questioning 41 victims, it was found that there were 13 people who had not gone to Wuhan city. This means these infected people might have come from other areas and there was a high chance of the virus spreading in the market and causing human-to-human transmission.

 

2 Flying animals, including bats, which have the 2019-nCoV virus, might not be infected but could be carriers. The spread of the virus might start when the butcher slaughters the virus carrier in front of the customer. A small molecule of infected blood is sprayed in the air, and the virus gets inhaled by the customer and passersby.

 

3 Flying animals, including bats, might fly over the Wuhan market and their droppings on other animals or humans then gets inhaled and causes the infection.

 

4 The infection might come from a bunch of bats living under the roof of a human house in Wuhan city. The bat droppings release the virus which are inhaled by people who then get infected. There are reports of infected people who did not go to the nearby market. Possibly bats from other provinces flew around and spread the virus.

 

 

“According to the four assumptions, it means that we have to find the real source of the virus as soon as possible before predicting the infection period. In my assessment there are four arguments:

 

1 If the government’s order of shutting off the city and the suspected area led to a positive response, it would have meant that we had control over the source of the virus. If the outcome leaned to this choice, the trend of infection would have clearly dropped within two months or the number of infections would have decreased. However, after China shut down the cities, the numbers continue to keep going up.

 

2 The source of the virus, such as for instance bats still flying and spreading the virus, has not been found. It would take at least nine months to stop a new infected patient in China alone, said the doctor.

 

“I want to suggest to China’s government to check the air for any new coronavirus. The investigation team needs to collect samples of air in the infected areas, residential areas and bat droppings on people’s houses to find the DNA of the spray then match it with the current epidemic virus.

 

If it matches, the official can cleanse the source of infection,” Dr Amorn added.

 

An x-ray flim of new coronavirus infected patient.

 

Prof Dr Amorn added that the first animal-to-human transmission would be through inhalation of airborne droplets as that would have more viruses than those who “eat bats” or poultry with coronavirus because the virus would die from the heat during the cooking process.

 

The severity of this disease will more or less depend on the number of coronaviruses reaching the “lung tissue”, or how deeply they get embedded in the lungs. If the droplets are smaller than 2.5 microns with more than tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of the virus travelling through the nasal pharynx and deep into the lung tissue at the same time, it will cause pneumonia in many parts of the lungs at the same time, resulting in insufficient oxygen in the lungs, which could cause sudden respiratory failure.

 

More importantly the incubation period of this virus is as short as 2-4 days, so the body is unable to build immunity in time as white blood cells are unfamiliar with this infection. Most of the deaths are those of elderly people or chronic lung disease patients, while those who have recovered would have built up immunity.

 

Regarding the production of drugs or vaccines to prevent “2019-nCoV virus”, medical experts agree that it would be possible but no one knows if there would be a relapse of this deadly virus. A drug company has to invest hundreds of millions of dollars and it takes no less than one year to make the drugs, so they have to consider if it would be worth the investment.

 

However, the “Chinese government” has the money and many resources, and they may order production of such vaccine regardless of profits. “We probably have to wait with hope,” he said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30381757

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-02-07

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[DrTuner]

At least they don't have to wonder about how it came to Thailand. Brilliant idea not to stop the flights from China.

[Senechal]

I love how the idea of an accidentally released bio weapon is a "conspiracy theory", but somehow bat soup is plausible.

 

Being sloppy in a lab with science they don't really understand, is *exactly* the kind of mistake China would make. Not unlikely at all. Their safety standards are primitive. Their scientists are poorly trained. And Wuhan is the site of their only level 4 bio lab.

 

But no... "bat soup."

 

As Einstein said, two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity.

[RubbaJohnny]

Regardless of the aetiology force majeure may allow communist regimes unaccountable to electors to trial faster than lawyered up places like US.

 

Of course poor advice is an added hazard.

As should change mosit masks say 2-3 per day, after bathing , 21 per week or allmost 100 for a family of 4, the supply of quality masks for medical pros and those diagnosed may be insufficient.

 

As no bin collection and fires banned the bins around dwellings are to be filled with masks.

 

One of the few positives folks may wash their hands more frequently and endangered species won't be torn from the wild for exotic diners.

Edited February 7, 2020 by RubbaJohnny

[nausea]

Personally, I think we should just let it take its course. Let the core population build up a resilience. Like, the more we put it off, the more deadly the final version will be. Obviously, we are totally incapable of containing these things, through political and economic pressures. 

[jsflynn603]

I am sick of hearing this 2% death rate.

 

The statement “…according to data as of February 6, the death rate is still at “2 per cent” is absurd.

 

The real death rate on February 6 was 29.3%

 

Why do we see ~2% CDR (case death rate)?  Here’s why:

 

They use total death / total number confirmed cases:  Today’s #’s (2/6) = 565/28,344 = CDR = 1.99%

 

This would be ok looking at a past epidemic but NOT at one that is ongoing.  Why?  Because we have no idea as to how many of the remaining confirmed of 28,344 will die or recover.

Here is a somewhat more reasonable response:

 

Total deaths so for of 465 + total recovered so for of 1,363 (sum) population whose outcome has been determined.  This population is 1928.  Using this the CDR = death rate divided by population, so 565 divided by 1928.  Therefore, today (February 6, the date of the article) the death rate is 29.3% Not 2%.

 

Note: As days go buy the number of total recovered increases compared to those who died therefore over the past 5 days the CDR rate has improved greatly.

 

Today the population of dead + recovered = 2402, number who have died = 638 therefore the current death rate (CDR) = 638/2402 = 26.6%, which is a significant improvement from yesterday.

The likely reason is availability of test kits to test those with lesser, or no symptoms.

 

Yet, the fact that there are those with little or no symptoms that are spreading disease (as has occurred to a shopkeeper and tour guide in Singapore (who never travelled to China) may mean that in a week or two there will be an uptick of secondary cases.

 

There is no comparing this to the seasonal flu, even though 10-20,000 deaths occur (in America) each year because the seasonal influenza death rate (CDR) is, on average seen as ~1 deaths per 10,000 cases.

 

At today’s rate (if said rate continues) for every 10,000 to become infected with the coronavirus we would see a death rate of 2,900 deaths per 10,000 cases.    Huge difference.

Edited February 7, 2020 by jsflynn603

[justin case]

what 99,99 percent of the world does not know, is that during middle ages, the CHURCH released infected RATS with the plague to control cities that were overgrown with people

[Orton Rd]

3 minutes ago, justin case said:

what 99,99 percent of the world does not know, is that during middle ages, the CHURCH released infected RATS with the plague to control cities that were overgrown with people

Rubbish

[spiekerjozef]

the source can be found in the virology institute in wuhan,

if you're looking at that market you're looking in the wrong spot.

[spiekerjozef]

15 minutes ago, justin case said:

what 99,99 percent of the world does not know, is that during middle ages, the CHURCH released infected RATS with the plague to control cities that were overgrown with people

now I understand why most churches are empty today.

[ThaiBunny]

16 minutes ago, justin case said:

what 99,99 percent of the world does not know, is that during middle ages, the CHURCH released infected RATS with the plague to control cities that were overgrown with people

Source?

[stephenterry]

17 hours ago, Senechal said:

I love how the idea of an accidentally released bio weapon is a "conspiracy theory", but somehow bat soup is plausible.

 

Being sloppy in a lab with science they don't really understand, is *exactly* the kind of mistake China would make. Not unlikely at all. Their safety standards are primitive. Their scientists are poorly trained. And Wuhan is the site of their only level 4 bio lab.

 

But no... "bat soup."

 

As Einstein said, two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity.

IMO, I don't believe in coincidences - that a level 4 bio lab situated in Wuhan and the Coronavirus has no correlation towards the outbreak. To my mind, it's a far greater probability than blaming bat droppings in a wild animal meat market. I suppose the Chinese don't experiment with live wild animals in their lab, then?   

 

Not that we'd never know, because such an occurrence would be buried by the Chinese government. I'm looking forward to the USA to stick their oar in - what a trade negotiating benefit...

 

[Orton Rd]

28 minutes ago, spiekerjozef said:

the source can be found in the virology institute in wuhan,

if you're looking at that market you're looking in the wrong spot.

More rubbish conspiracy theories with zero evidence, so they made a not very good virus to kill their own people, well at least the Jews are not being blamed as usual.

[DrTuner]

14 hours ago, jsflynn603 said:

I am sick of hearing this 2% death rate.

 

The statement “…according to data as of February 6, the death rate is still at “2 per cent” is absurd.

 

The real death rate on February 6 was 29.3%

 

Why do we see ~2% CDR (case death rate)?  Here’s why:

 

They use total death / total number confirmed cases:  Today’s #’s (2/6) = 565/28,344 = CDR = 1.99%

 

This would be ok looking at a past epidemic but NOT at one that is ongoing.  Why?  Because we have no idea as to how many of the remaining confirmed of 28,344 will die or recover.

Here is a somewhat more reasonable response:

 

Total deaths so for of 465 + total recovered so for of 1,363 (sum) population whose outcome has been determined.  This population is 1928.  Using this the CDR = death rate divided by population, so 565 divided by 1928.  Therefore, today (February 6, the date of the article) the death rate is 29.3% Not 2%.

 

Note: As days go buy the number of total recovered increases compared to those who died therefore over the past 5 days the CDR rate has improved greatly.

 

Today the population of dead + recovered = 2402, number who have died = 638 therefore the current death rate (CDR) = 638/2402 = 26.6%, which is a significant improvement from yesterday.

The likely reason is availability of test kits to test those with lesser, or no symptoms.

 

Yet, the fact that there are those with little or no symptoms that are spreading disease (as has occurred to a shopkeeper and tour guide in Singapore (who never travelled to China) may mean that in a week or two there will be an uptick of secondary cases.

 

There is no comparing this to the seasonal flu, even though 10-20,000 deaths occur (in America) each year because the seasonal influenza death rate (CDR) is, on average seen as ~1 deaths per 10,000 cases.

 

At today’s rate (if said rate continues) for every 10,000 to become infected with the coronavirus we would see a death rate of 2,900 deaths per 10,000 cases.    Huge difference.

Yes, the 2% was an early estimate from WHO and it's stuck in the narrative. The dead/recovered ratio will eventually settle at the final number. It started from around 60%, likely because the sickest went to hospital first and died. Lancet's articles from the first 41 and a second batch of 99 that were still ongoing by th time of writing the article were about 14 and 11%.

[smutcakes]

15 hours ago, jsflynn603 said:

I am sick of hearing this 2% death rate.

 

The statement “…according to data as of February 6, the death rate is still at “2 per cent” is absurd.

 

The real death rate on February 6 was 29.3%

 

Why do we see ~2% CDR (case death rate)?  Here’s why:

 

They use total death / total number confirmed cases:  Today’s #’s (2/6) = 565/28,344 = CDR = 1.99%

 

This would be ok looking at a past epidemic but NOT at one that is ongoing.  Why?  Because we have no idea as to how many of the remaining confirmed of 28,344 will die or recover.

Here is a somewhat more reasonable response:

 

Total deaths so for of 465 + total recovered so for of 1,363 (sum) population whose outcome has been determined.  This population is 1928.  Using this the CDR = death rate divided by population, so 565 divided by 1928.  Therefore, today (February 6, the date of the article) the death rate is 29.3% Not 2%.

 

Note: As days go buy the number of total recovered increases compared to those who died therefore over the past 5 days the CDR rate has improved greatly.

 

Today the population of dead + recovered = 2402, number who have died = 638 therefore the current death rate (CDR) = 638/2402 = 26.6%, which is a significant improvement from yesterday.

The likely reason is availability of test kits to test those with lesser, or no symptoms.

 

Yet, the fact that there are those with little or no symptoms that are spreading disease (as has occurred to a shopkeeper and tour guide in Singapore (who never travelled to China) may mean that in a week or two there will be an uptick of secondary cases.

 

There is no comparing this to the seasonal flu, even though 10-20,000 deaths occur (in America) each year because the seasonal influenza death rate (CDR) is, on average seen as ~1 deaths per 10,000 cases.

 

At today’s rate (if said rate continues) for every 10,000 to become infected with the coronavirus we would see a death rate of 2,900 deaths per 10,000 cases.    Huge difference.

Your figures would be the death rate of those in serious enough condition to require treatment, if projections of the virus infecting upwards of 50-100,000 people are correct but the vast majority recover without requiring hospital or doctor treatment its only a small % who sadly pass away.

[placnx]

23 hours ago, Senechal said:

I love how the idea of an accidentally released bio weapon is a "conspiracy theory", but somehow bat soup is plausible.

 

Being sloppy in a lab with science they don't really understand, is *exactly* the kind of mistake China would make. Not unlikely at all. Their safety standards are primitive. Their scientists are poorly trained. And Wuhan is the site of their only level 4 bio lab.

 

But no... "bat soup."

 

As Einstein said, two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity.

 

5 hours ago, stephenterry said:

IMO, I don't believe in coincidences - that a level 4 bio lab situated in Wuhan and the Coronavirus has no correlation towards the outbreak. To my mind, it's a far greater probability than blaming bat droppings in a wild animal meat market. I suppose the Chinese don't experiment with live wild animals in their lab, then?   

 

Not that we'd never know, because such an occurrence would be buried by the Chinese government. I'm looking forward to the USA to stick their oar in - what a trade negotiating benefit...

 

Maybe the cleaner in the lab took some discarded bats home for dinner, after preparing the bats then used the infectious chopping block for preparing uncooked food. From "Wild West" China, this is what we can get! Conspiracy gone awry.

[placnx]

17 hours ago, jsflynn603 said:

I am sick of hearing this 2% death rate.

 

The statement “…according to data as of February 6, the death rate is still at “2 per cent” is absurd.

 

The real death rate on February 6 was 29.3%

 

Why do we see ~2% CDR (case death rate)?  Here’s why:

 

They use total death / total number confirmed cases:  Today’s #’s (2/6) = 565/28,344 = CDR = 1.99%

 

This would be ok looking at a past epidemic but NOT at one that is ongoing.  Why?  Because we have no idea as to how many of the remaining confirmed of 28,344 will die or recover.

Here is a somewhat more reasonable response:

 

Total deaths so for of 465 + total recovered so for of 1,363 (sum) population whose outcome has been determined.  This population is 1928.  Using this the CDR = death rate divided by population, so 565 divided by 1928.  Therefore, today (February 6, the date of the article) the death rate is 29.3% Not 2%.

 

Note: As days go buy the number of total recovered increases compared to those who died therefore over the past 5 days the CDR rate has improved greatly.

 

Today the population of dead + recovered = 2402, number who have died = 638 therefore the current death rate (CDR) = 638/2402 = 26.6%, which is a significant improvement from yesterday.

The likely reason is availability of test kits to test those with lesser, or no symptoms.

 

Yet, the fact that there are those with little or no symptoms that are spreading disease (as has occurred to a shopkeeper and tour guide in Singapore (who never travelled to China) may mean that in a week or two there will be an uptick of secondary cases.

 

There is no comparing this to the seasonal flu, even though 10-20,000 deaths occur (in America) each year because the seasonal influenza death rate (CDR) is, on average seen as ~1 deaths per 10,000 cases.

 

At today’s rate (if said rate continues) for every 10,000 to become infected with the coronavirus we would see a death rate of 2,900 deaths per 10,000 cases.    Huge difference.

Death rate calculation is well nigh impossible since we don't know the real number of infections. Anyway, death rate will vary depending on whether victims have access to adequate health care. In Wuhan the BBC now reports that facilities, testing, and supplies are already overstretched, but independent reporting from Wuhan is being suppressed so will we ever know how many really died?

[overherebc]

10 hours ago, Orton Rd said:

Rubbish

I sgree it's rubbish. From what I read they believed it was an airborne disease.

Edited February 8, 2020 by overherebc

[ParkerN]

On 2/7/2020 at 7:43 PM, nausea said:

Personally, I think we should just let it take its course. Let the core population build up a resilience. Like, the more we put it off, the more deadly the final version will be. Obviously, we are totally incapable of containing these things, through political and economic pressures. 

Letting it take it's course is likely how it will turn out anyway. The major exercise is not so much to treat as to prevent spread. It will run it's lifecycle and then fade into history while the Chinese figure out how to double their tourism and get their mates in Thailand out of the cacky.

[metisdead]

A post containing a link to a conspiracy pseudoscience site has been removed. 

[katana]

3 hours ago, overherebc said:

14 hours ago, Orton Rd said:

Rubbish

I sgree it's rubbish. From what I read they believed it was an airborne disease.

Edited 3 hours ago by overherebc

Yes, I thought at the time they were unaware it was spread by fleas on the rats, as we now know.

[Expat Brad]

WTH!!! A World gone MAD through HYPE and deliberate misinformation. 

30,000 global infections causing 600 deaths. That equals 2% fatality rate...... the same as for influenza sheeple!!! Only real difference seems to be that this virus is more contaigious. NOT MORE DEADLY!!!