Exclusive: China's top virus expert says outbreak may peak this month

[snoop1130]

Exclusive: China's top virus expert says outbreak may peak this month

By David Kirton

 

Zhong Nanshan, head of the National Health Commission's team investigating the novel coronavirus outbreak, attends an interview with Reuters in Guangzhou, Guangdong province, China February 11, 2020. REUTERS/Thomas Suen

 

GUANGZHOU, China (Reuters) - China’s coronavirus epidemic may peak in February and then plateau before easing, the government’s top medical adviser on the outbreak said.

 

In an exclusive interview with Reuters, Zhong Nanshan, a leading epidemiologist who won international fame for his role in combating the SARS epidemic in 2003, said the situation in some provinces was already improving, with the number of new cases declining.

 

Zhong, who had previously predicted an earlier peak, said the forecast was based on modelling and developments in recent days, as well as government action.

 

“So, we suppose maybe, the peak time may be reached at the, maybe middle or late this month, February ... and then keep a little bit plateau or something like that and, then going down,” he said.

 

He said containment measures in the city of Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, were necessary, and the country should also permanently ban trade in wildlife.

 

It also needed to improve its disease control mechanisms and even help set up a global early warning system for contagious diseases.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-02-11

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[darksidedog]

7 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

Zhong, who had previously predicted an earlier peak

Having got it wrong once already, you can't help but think the latest prediction is based to some degree at least on a wing and a prayer.

[mfd101]

Fingers crossed. Quite apart from health matters, the whole world economy and supply trains of all kinds in all directions and in just about all countries are grinding to a halt.

 

We may yet have a new generation - well, several actually - who will have to learn from their grand- and great-grand parents how to raise spuds, carrots, lettuce, tomatoes, beans, chooks, apples, oranges ... how to milk a cow, ride a horse ... Heavens, I feel exhausted already.

Edited February 11, 2020 by mfd101

[Surelynot]

Should move to Switzerland. Cloud cuckoo land. 

[AussieBob18]

He'll be right this month - if not then the next - then next .....................

[Caldera]

That's already the second time he's moved his prediction, and I'm sure he's prepared to further move it as often as necessary. Or in other words, such a prediction is worthless - we will know it has peaked once it has peaked.

[JHolmesJr]

Just read another piece that said the transmission rate is slowing not peaking.

You never know what the Chinese are saying.

 

I am disgusted by the way they treat their people...it's all out on twitter.

 

There's a video showing 4 cops dragging a waif thin woman out of a car and wrestling her to the pavement. The video is obscured but you suddenly see her leg twitch and she goes limp.  Fake news alert: some commentators are saying one cop broke her neck, another says they administered an injection that knocked her out.

 

Either way...disgraceful!

[transam]

1 minute ago, rhyddid said:

China is doing very well to contain the spread, hat off to them, some matter has been handled in a draconian way, indeed it was needed to allow the spread to be more wide.

We have seen in several other countries the spread is happening, let see how they will handle, then we can re-call all the comments against China.

????...................????

[sawadee1947]

19 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

So, we suppose maybe, the peak time may be reached at the, maybe middle or late this month, February

Wow, very precisely statement. ????

[Srikcir]

19 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

plateau before easing

 

19 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

then keep a little bit plateau or something like that and, then going down

What's a "little bit plateau or something like that"?

He's not going to speculate which perhaps means that plateau is unknown and thus, without predictable bounds.

Consider this potential for plateau in China from a couple infections:

• There are 500 suspected camps and prisons where China is detaining up to at least one million Uighurs. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-uighur-prison-camp-suspected-locations-maps-2019-11

 

[timendres]

23 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Having got it wrong once already, you can't help but think the latest prediction is based to some degree at least on a wing and a prayer.

Or a very strong suggestion by his government sponsored institution.

[Redline]

4 hours ago, rhyddid said:

China is doing very well to contain the spread, hat off to them, some matter has been handled in a draconian way, indeed it was needed to allow the spread to be more wide.

We have seen in several other countries the spread is happening, let see how they will handle, then we can re-call all the comments against China.

First, China did not enforce their laws, that caused this to happen AGAIN!  They also covered it up and took the doctors away that were announcing it early on.  The first doctor is dead.

What makes you think the information coming out of China now is accurate?  There are 5 million Chinese that left the infected area that have not returned during the time of cover up.

Fine job they are doing .  And they are praising Thailand and Cambodia for not stopping flights.  Super!