Virus numbers stable, recoveries continue

[PingRoundTheWorld]

33 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I'm betting on 2 and panic spreading out at the point where the hospitals are overrun. Results should be in in 2-3 weeks, we'll see.

It took Wuhan about 15 days from first reports of the disease on 12/31 to the start of exponential growth from 1/16 onward. By 1/22 there were 566 confirmed cases. The first report in Thailand was a month ago (1/13), and of course many more came on 1/25. If we are to follow the Wuhan example then exponential growth of confirmed cases in Thailand should've started already at least 1-2 weeks ago. Unless of course they're lying and there's already hundreds of cases.

[Haecksler]

19 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

It took Wuhan about 15 days from first reports of the disease on 12/31 to the start of exponential growth from 1/16 onward. By 1/22 there were 566 confirmed cases. The first report in Thailand was a month ago (1/13), and of course many more came on 1/25. If we are to follow the Wuhan example then exponential growth of confirmed cases in Thailand should've started already at least 1-2 weeks ago. Unless of course they're lying and there's already hundreds of cases.

Good point but in Wuhan the infected people where much concentrated and don't forget the big dinner a couple of meters away from the wet marked.

Here the whole thing is much more scattered and assuming that many people might totally unaware because they never where in China.

[mrfill]

1 hour ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

It took Wuhan about 15 days from first reports of the disease on 12/31 to the start of exponential growth from 1/16 onward. By 1/22 there were 566 confirmed cases. The first report in Thailand was a month ago (1/13), and of course many more came on 1/25. If we are to follow the Wuhan example then exponential growth of confirmed cases in Thailand should've started already at least 1-2 weeks ago. Unless of course they're lying and there's already hundreds of cases.

Remind us all of the number of fatalities in the rest of the world, excluding China and then try and get the word exponential into the description of the change since mid January.

 

I hear a mutant start goat is about to devour our planet soon....

[248900_1469958220]

4 hours ago, Caldera said:

While I share the skepticism that Thai officials might not be telling the truth, I think it has to be said that it would be impossible - in Thailand - to keep a major outbreak secret. Nurses and doctors use Facebook and Line just like any other Thai, and unlike the Chinese government, their Thai counterpart cannot outright delete posts they don't like (only threaten action later). The Korat mall shooting is a perfect example for that.

 

I don't think that they have the situation under control, mind you. I just think that they've been quite lucky so far.

 

I have to agree with this....there is no word on 'the grapevine' as yet.....and that grapevine tells me all sorts of sordid things about particular people etc etc.... Again, from what I have read and seen the virus is LESS LIKELY to survive very long in the temps we are having here right now. Doctors are looking to contain it till the Northern hemispheres summer for a reason. They obviously feel making it to that point will help to slow it at least. I am skeptical but I am hopeful. 

[rkidlad]

20 minutes ago, 248900_1469958220 said:

I have to agree with this....there is no word on 'the grapevine' as yet.....and that grapevine tells me all sorts of sordid things about particular people etc etc.... Again, from what I have read and seen the virus is LESS LIKELY to survive very long in the temps we are having here right now. Doctors are looking to contain it till the Northern hemispheres summer for a reason. They obviously feel making it to that point will help to slow it at least. I am skeptical but I am hopeful. 

But what about Singapore? 

[Tayaout]

39 minutes ago, rkidlad said:

But what about Singapore? 

They get more and more case pretty much everyday. 

[248900_1469958220]

1 hour ago, rkidlad said:

But what about Singapore? 

Yeah, not going to argue. As I said, it 'seems' that flus dont do so well in higher temps.....The temp in Wuhan is a lot colder than Singapore....I know the rates in Singapore are climbing, but is it anywhere near the rate in China? Again, I am about as far away from being a doctor as Hillary Clinton is being the next president of the good ole U.S.A

[englishoak]

Maybe Thailand should take control of the Chinese problems or advise them then... 

 

China Says Nearly 2,000 Doctors & Nurses Infected As Shortages Of Medical Supplies Persist

 

• China says 1,716 medical workers have been infected
• Singapore reports largest daily jump in cases
• Hubei's new party boss orders quarantine tightened
• President Xi touts new "biosecurity law"
• Hong Kong Disney land offers space for quarantine
•  
• https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-says-nearly-2000-doctors-nurses-infected-shortages-medical-supplies-persist

[yokat]

On 2/13/2020 at 6:58 PM, Fex Bluse said:

Seems a few of you posting here believe the Thai government is 1) capable of capturing the correct numbers and 2) willing to report them truthfully

They were able to capture some number in the beginning so I assume the problem is with the reporting part

[Tayaout]

One more victim is a Thai nurse: https://pr.moph.go.th/?url=pr/detail/2/04/138717/

 

They also mention discharging a Chinese "sex tourist".

[DrTuner]

19 hours ago, rkidlad said:

But what about Singapore? 

That does indeed speak against the temperature theory. Population density might be a factor in the local R0 value.

[DrTuner]

8 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

One more victim is a Thai nurse: https://pr.moph.go.th/?url=pr/detail/2/04/138717/

 

They also mention discharging a Chinese "sex tourist".

2 are in severe condition. Won't be long before Thailand clocks it's first death in. The question is will they attribute it to other causes. Would not be surprised.

[Tayaout]

9 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

2 are in severe condition. Won't be long before Thailand clocks it's first death in. The question is will they attribute it to other causes. Would not be surprised.

It's interesting that they say that they are already using plasma with antibodies from recovered patients to treat those who are still sick. I read this morning that the Chinese are also doing this with great results. Unfortunately, it doesn't prevent reinfection since the immune system doesn't learn itself how to create the antibodies. 

[fusion58]

Best site for reliable tracking and data:

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[khunpa]

1 hour ago, Tayaout said:

One more victim is a Thai nurse: https://pr.moph.go.th/?url=pr/detail/2/04/138717/

 

They also mention discharging a Chinese "sex tourist".

Wonder how they are reacting to a nurse being infected. How may of her patients and co-workers has she infected? And how many in contact with those have they infected? Also what about the family members?

 

Just this one nurse means a lot of detective work to trace and isolate possible new cases.

 

The question is. Are they doing this? I doubt it.

[tomauasia]

On 2/13/2020 at 7:43 PM, sirineou said:

Very good news indeed. lets hope they continue. 

And you believe this <deleted> lol

[sirineou]

55 minutes ago, tomauasia said:

And you believe this <deleted> lol

Not so much but It is better than bad news. The good news is that the virus deem to not thrive in hot humid weather of which we have a lot in Thailand. if that's the case also good news. 

[DrTuner]

44 minutes ago, sirineou said:

Not so much but It is better than bad news. The good news is that the virus deem to not thrive in hot humid weather of which we have a lot in Thailand. if that's the case also good news. 

It's doing just fine in Singapore, which is hot enough. My take is we're in a coverup phase now, which will inevitably blast open later.

[ashkale]

Wait till all those sick and dead start showing up all over the country. Its strange obsession with material wealth that will kill the goose.

[sirineou]

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

It's doing just fine in Singapore, which is hot enough. My take is we're in a coverup phase now, which will inevitably blast open later.

I get it, and you are right.

I don't know much about these things, perhaps the cover up was a good thing by preventing panic. perhaps not. I hope what they say concerning the virus's susceptibility to  high temperatures and humidity is true, as it is about to get hot and humid. This would give as a respite and a chance to regroup develop a vaccine, do some studies, and be ready for next  winter. 

I am in the US now and was getting ready to come back to my Thai home that has being empty for eight months , when this thing started, I am keeping an eye on it, later today I will meet with my accountant, and as soon as I do my taxes, and a couple of other things that I need to do, If things are progressing good with the virus,  I am on my way .   let's keep our fingers crossed, I miss Thailand terribly. 

[Gulfsailor]

25 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

It's doing just fine in Singapore, which is hot enough. My take is we're in a coverup phase now, which will inevitably blast open later.

The cases in Singapore can all be traced back to office buildings, which have air conditioning. I do believe the virus dies very quickly out in the open when exposed to heat and humidity. So while there could be transmission in malls and office building in Thailand, you won’t get infected from being outside. That’s very different in large areas of China, hence the exponential rise in cases there and not in Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia or Singapore.

[ChouDoufu]

On 2/14/2020 at 7:07 PM, rkidlad said:

But what about Singapore? 

singapore's changi airport is a major hub for budget airlines.

 

cheap flights and more connections to bangkok and other seasia destinations.

[Boomer6969]

On 2/13/2020 at 6:08 PM, spiekerjozef said:

Maybe the smart beamer has corona virus sensors on it's roof?

Most certainly, this enligtened government's  power of anticipation should now be obvious to most of us. They forced us to buy a health insurance because they saw COVID-19 coming and we should thank them for being well protected and safe.

[ThaiBunny]

9 hours ago, Gulfsailor said:

I do believe the virus dies very quickly out in the open when exposed to heat and humidity.

That must be the explanation for the number of reported cases in Indonesia

[fhickson]

thai way of not admitting problems bothers me here and casts doubt on whats being reported...

[Thian]

On cruiseship the Westerdam was 1 passenger who was infected with the virus....so did she get that in Cambodia or on board of the ship? 

[zydeco]

12 hours ago, Gulfsailor said:

So while there could be transmission in malls and office building in Thailand, you won’t get infected from being outside.

Outside malls?  Like in the a/c supplied BTS, MRT, taxis, some buses, condos, hotels, universities, airports, restaurants, etc?  Actually, I don't think heat stops it. I think heat and humidity might well be an incubator. That's what China's "miracle hospital" constructed in one week is turning out to be. It's apparently falling apart already, with water leaks and foundation problems and providing an atmosphere for the virus to grow, rather than be controlled.

[zydeco]

1 hour ago, fhickson said:

thai way of not admitting problems bothers me here and casts doubt on whats being reported...

You're new here, aren't you.

[Assurancetourix]

On 2/13/2020 at 6:50 PM, yokat said:

They are either extremely lucky or not truthful, with the amount of chinese still coming to Thailand it's incredible that they did not spot more infected.

 

This is completely normal;
when the Coronatruc virus sees the Thai border , it becomes afraid and self-destructs ...

[Sonhia]

Not according to many other sources and I know who I would rather beleive.

 

Apparently Thailand is unable to contain the virus with far greater numbers, being the second most infected country! Well I guess that is something to be proud of?

 

Cannot loose face...  Cannot accept reasoning or wrong doing.

 

Paradise. Cough! Cough! I think not...

 

Does the word Honesty exsist within Thai vocabulary?