Here's how Thailand would respond to a 'worst case' coronavirus scenario

[KruZik]

2 hours ago, Vigilante said:

A comforting fact

All flu viruses hate hot weather.

Flu epidemics don't happen in the middle of a hot summer.

Northern latitudes have a few more months to go but we are already there.

 

 

 

 

This is the one explanation for the lack of cases here in Thailand I can think of. I've been trawling the Internet since this started and while I'm no doctor, I can't think of another credible reason for the small number of cases. I realise that some people think there's a cover-up but it could simply be the weather. I hope so. I have a 6 month old baby and I'm starting to get spooked.

[metisdead]

Posts containing content from unapproved YouTube sources have been removed.

 

Off topic posts, troll posts and the replies have been removed. 

 

Posts containing disallowed references to the PM have been removed. 

[christophe75]

6 minutes ago, KruZik said:

This is the one explanation for the lack of cases here in Thailand I can think of. I've been trawling the Internet since this started and while I'm no doctor, I can't think of another credible reason for the small number of cases. I realise that some people think there's a cover-up but it could simply be the weather. I hope so. I have a 6 month old baby and I'm starting to get spooked.

 

Documented cases prove you wrong.

 

The woman who infected 9 members of her family... during a lunch in Hong Kong ?

 

No link with temperature, or sun, or UV light whatsoever.

 

The "conference" in a luxury hotel in Singapore with a few infected people ? I guess, strong air conditionning inside !

 

The dozen of cases in a church in Singapore ? Or the hundreds in a "cult" in South Korea ? What is out door ?

 

Absolutly not.

 

The "weather" might have a role, but in modern urban environment... I mean it's unlikely.

 

Compare the BTS with a train in Tokyo ? Or Seoul ? Or a cruise ship ? Big difference in temperature ?

 

All those environments have air con.

 

What could make a difference is "superspreader".... 

 

Was Thailand lucky ? Very lucky ? Despite dozen of DIRECT FLIGHTS between Wuhan and Bangkok before the lock down ?

(i counted 3 in DMK and 3 in Suva, per day) ?

 

Well, if you say yes, then you should play... lottery. ????

Edited February 22, 2020 by christophe75

[ICELANDMAN]

2 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

bro you really need to get out more ????

 

 

Sorry but your replay don't make me any sense, why shouldn't I check what I eat ? By controlling the nitrate level you can avoid many health problem.

 

[samuttodd]

50 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

I wonder how many Chinese die from common flu every month.

 

There is something sinister about this pandemic, how it started and how fatal it is.

 

 

 

 

SHC014. Google it.    Yup,  it is sinister.

It already existed in a lab 5 years ago. A gain of function virus engineered in a lab from a bat base made to jump to humans. SARS-COV2 is either SHC014 itself or a further modified version. Again, it has existed for 5 years in a lab so the fact that such a virus was engineered is undisputed.

[ParkerN]

26 minutes ago, KruZik said:

I can't think of another credible reason for the small number of cases

I can...

[KruZik]

16 minutes ago, christophe75 said:

 

Documented cases prove you wrong.

 

The woman who infected 9 members of her family... during a lunch in Hong Kong ?

 

No link with temperature, or sun, or UV light whatsoever.

 

The "conference" in a luxury hotel in Singapore with a few infected people ? I guess, strong air conditionning inside !

 

The dozen of cases in a church in Singapore ? Or the hundreds in a "cult" in South Korea ? What is out door ?

 

Absolutly not.

 

The "weather" might have a role, but in modern urban environment... I mean it's unlikely.

 

Compare the BTS with a train in Tokyo ? Or Seoul ? Or a cruise ship ? Big difference in temperature ?

 

All those environments have air con.

 

What could make a difference is "superspreader".... 

 

Was Thailand lucky ? Very lucky ? Despite dozen of DIRECT FLIGHTS between Wuhan and Bangkok before the lock down ?

(i counted 3 in DMK and 3 in Suva, per day) ?

 

Well, if you say yes, then you should play... lottery. ????

 

17 minutes ago, christophe75 said:

 

Documented cases prove you wrong.

 

The woman who infected 9 members of her family... during a lunch in Hong Kong ?

 

No link with temperature, or sun, or UV light whatsoever.

 

The "conference" in a luxury hotel in Singapore with a few infected people ? I guess, strong air conditionning inside !

 

The dozen of cases in a church in Singapore ? Or the hundreds in a "cult" in South Korea ? What is out door ?

 

Absolutly not.

 

The "weather" might have a role, but in modern urban environment... I mean it's unlikely.

 

Compare the BTS with a train in Tokyo ? Or Seoul ? Or a cruise ship ? Big difference in temperature ?

 

All those environments have air con.

 

What could make a difference is "superspreader".... 

 

Was Thailand lucky ? Very lucky ? Despite dozen of DIRECT FLIGHTS between Wuhan and Bangkok before the lock down ?

(i counted 3 in DMK and 3 in Suva, per day) ?

 

Well, if you say yes, then you should play... lottery. ????

The weather in Hong Kong is currently 21 Celsius - significantly colder than here in Thailand. Likewise South Korea - 10 degrees or less. From what I've read, if this novel coronavirus spreads in a similar fashion to influenza - through droplets from an infected person - then colder temperatures favour that kind of transmission. Coronaviruses don't tend to do too well in hot climates. Having said that, MERS spread in very hot countries like Saudi Arabia, so I just don't know.

 

And I take your point about the air-con. The BTS, malls and other spaces in Bangkok are freezing, so it's possible the disease could spread that way. 

[KruZik]

So you're seriously suggesting that this is a cover-up? Where are these potentially thousands of infected people being secreted? Wouldn't it have come out by now? Genuine questions. 

Edited February 22, 2020 by KruZik

[FarFlungFalang]

4 minutes ago, KruZik said:

The weather in Hong Kong is currently 21 Celsius - significantly colder than here in Thailand.

Singapore kind of blows your theory away it's got more cases than Hong Kong and it is considerably hotter.

[samuttodd]

I don't think the hot weather destroys the virus.   I think it just puts it in pause mode until suitable conditions are found.  

[ParkerN]

8 hours ago, Orton Rd said:

This is more than 2% more like 3 and higher for over 60's. The one in 1918 which killed about 50 million had a similar death rate of 2.5%, could kill millions as well. At least the Chinese are taking harsh measures to contain it, the Thais seem to be welcoming it in!

Probably there's a fast buck in it for them somewhere.

 

 

[christophe75]

33 minutes ago, KruZik said:

So you're seriously suggesting that this is a cover-up? Where are these potentially thousands of infected people being secreted? Wouldn't it have come out by now? Genuine questions. 

 

Every sane person ask those questions. And i do not have definitive answers.

 

I'm just looking at statistics, and data that are coming up (for instance, today, the chinese media are talking about a man... who was negative for.... 37 days, but was infected).

 

What if this is much more common ? Super long incubation time ? Reminder : first it was 14 days, then 24 then... more ?

 

Again... Wuhan lockdown was on january 23. One month ago.

 

Same with numbers of chinese tourists... I mean.... 11 millions in Thailand in 2019... Just for january 2020 : almost 1 million.

 

South Korea 5,5 millions... Singapore 3,4 millions...

 

Furthermore... Pneumonia. What are the epidemiological studies ? 

 

How do you make the difference between a classic pneumonia and the Wuwflu ? And a regular flu ?

 

How a thai doctor could make the difference ? up country ?

 

And how many people would simply stay home, buying what i call the "candies bags" (you know the small packages they buy on a daily basis... at the local guru local drugsture : 1 pill of antibio, 1 pill of steroid, 1 pill of paracetamol, 1 pill of antihistamine etc. All the colors of the rainbow ! Some people buy only 1 or 2 bags.....)

 

One thing is for sure : they don't look for the virus.

 

South Korea did thousands of tests. Thailand ? We do not know. USA ? A total joke... less than 500. For a country of 327 millions people, with mega urban centers and countless flights with China (and numerous chinese communities).

 

Another proof : it's only yesterday that they said : we are going to look in Thailand for sick people.... without any "travel history"...

 

But wait... it gets better : "Thailand may need to consider screening travellers arriving from Italy for coronavirus following a sharp rise in cases in the European country, health officials said on Saturday."

 

"Fais ce que je dis, pas ce que je fais" : do as I say, not as I do.

 

The same thai authorities who cry a river when Israel dare to close the door to thai visitors...

 

We are looking, in real time, at the total collapse of global tourism.

 

Fini. Over. Vanished. It was there... And 1 month after it's simply gone. It's truely fascinating.

 

Tomorrow Italy, Iran, South Korea. Next week ?

 

Edited February 22, 2020 by christophe75

[URMySunshine]

This teaching Dr has some great videos which he updates daily. 

 

 

[URMySunshine]

If you must prep then this mumsnet thread is a good place to start .

 

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/preppers/3822854-prepping-for-a-pandemic-4

[humbug]

1 hour ago, KruZik said:

This is the one explanation for the lack of cases here in Thailand I can think of. I've been trawling the Internet since this started and while I'm no doctor, I can't think of another credible reason for the small number of cases. I realise that some people think there's a cover-up but it could simply be the weather. I hope so. I have a 6 month old baby and I'm starting to get spooked.

There was a  virologist on an investment call with clsa, it was reported on yahoo news, as the private conversation went public, that he said it was similar to a cold, as warmer climates reduce the virus spreading and he guessed that May would be the end as it would be warmer in China,  
 

but that might mean a reduction but it doesn’t mean countries around the equator are immune, UAE has 2 new cases bringing their total to 11, both the new cases were in contact with Chinese nationals, or Lebanon there are new cases that’s also a hot country, so too Egypt with cases, and let’s remember this country had very quickly 32 cases, and all went quiet, this is also a hot country

 

there is so much cover up on numbers that every one can never figure out what really is going on, but would a cooler climate country really quarantine 100 million people and lockdown another 500 million people, that’s 8% of the worlds population just because it was a virus that is weather orientated, it seems to be a lot of hidden information, and last 2 days twitter lit up with personal stories in Beijing of buildings being in quarantine and sudden spikes of people being infected and then today, virtually zero information about Beijing
 

 

[URMySunshine]

Rabobank analysts war game some possible scenarios. 

 

Thai tourism, for example, constitutes 20% of GDP and employs about 10% of the workforce. Chinese tourists alone account for about 6% of Thai GDP. Indeed, the virus is already hitting Thailand hard as seen from anecdotal reports from Thai resorts and Bangkok, which is a popular destination for visitors from Wuhan.

 

https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2020/february/coronavirus-outbreak-of-uncertainty/#3293d093-8cb2-429e-9494-5b14daa54e87

[KruZik]

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Singapore kind of blows your theory away it's got more cases than Hong Kong and it is considerably hotter.

I thought about that and don’t have an immediate answer. Perhaps it more/less humid than here? I imagine the facts, when they are fully known, will reveal a more complex situation than is currently understood. Heck, not even the experts know what’s going on here.

[3NUMBAS]

infected can be  carriers but not be seen when checked with the tests and just go passing it around without even getting sick

[ChaiyaTH]

Those at the top with TAT are very relieved now they have something to blame everything on and keep their jobs.

[Rhys]

Let's see will China influence Thailand's data flow via the WHO?   Seems the WHO Director is going out of his way to praise his benefactors - China for the investments to his country.  

[hotchilli]

On 2/22/2020 at 6:56 AM, rooster59 said:

Here's how Thailand would respond to a 'worst case' coronavirus scenario

Deny everything, offer the world free visa on entry... 50% off all Chinese tours.
Another nationwide package to promote Thai resorts... eat, spend and shop till you drop stimulus for Thais only.

[soalbundy]

If you don't test you won't find any infections

[humbug]

11 hours ago, DannyCarlton said:

How can you watch this rubbish? Steve Bannon can't lie straight in bed.

 

The guy speaking is Guo Wengai an exiled Chinese billionare with a serious beef with the Chinese government.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/janelytvynenko/a-site-tied-to-steve-bannon-is-writing-fake-news-about-the

 

 

You have Top virologists in the Uk, Hk and Us, saying the growth rates even with mild and severe cases don’t match the CCP nonsense numbers, mid-jan it was put at 40k infected not all serious infections estimates by the top virologists, it doubles every 6 days, in some countries it doubles ever 2-3 days, it would be easily 1-2 million infected by now in China, mostly not severe cases, but to think that the CCP quarantined 100 million people, lockdown 500 million people, just because 75,000 people are infected is an insult to everyone with an iq above 1

 

and buzzfeed has a reputation of being planted anti-us propaganda from CCP China, put it this way, patient zero as reported by the ‘lancet’ the top world medical journal never went to the Wuhan food market, and everyone is asking CCP China, where did it start and how? no one believes CCP and you see their influence in south east asia in countries bordering China, hardly any news on infections

 

 

Edited February 23, 2020 by humbug

[DannyCarlton]

7 minutes ago, humbug said:

You have Top virologists in the Uk, Hk and Us, saying the growth rates even with mild and severe cases don’t match the CCP nonsense numbers, mid-jan it was put at 40k infected not all serious infections estimates by the top virologists, it doubles every 6 days, in some countries it doubles ever 2-3 days, it would be easily 1-2 million infected by now in China, mostly not severe cases, but to think that the CCP quarantined 100 million people, lockdown 500 million people, just because 75,000 people are infected is an insult to everyone with an iq above 1

 

 

Agreed but the figures quoted on Steve Bannon's show are equally nonsensical. Can't anyone give us the truth?

[humbug]

1 minute ago, DannyCarlton said:

Agreed but the figures quoted on Steve Bannon's show are equally nonsensical. Can't anyone give us the truth?

People on Steve bannon show are using the growth rate figures from the top virologist out of HK, at john Hopkins university who helped with SARS of 40,000 in mid-jan and how it doubles every 6 days, that would put it in the 1-2 million and the next week put it at 2-4 million and so on, it would include all cases, mild, critical, so the numbers by CCP just don’t add up by any top virologist

[DannyCarlton]

10 minutes ago, humbug said:

People on Steve bannon show are using the growth rate figures from the top virologist out of HK, at john Hopkins university who helped with SARS of 40,000 in mid-jan and how it doubles every 6 days, that would put it in the 1-2 million and the next week put it at 2-4 million and so on, it would include all cases, mild, critical, so the numbers by CCP just don’t add up by any top virologist

Nope. It was a Chinese billionare who hadn't been to China in 4 years. The figures just came straight out of his head.

 

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/janelytvynenko/a-site-tied-to-steve-bannon-is-writing-fake-news-about-the

 

 

Edited February 23, 2020 by DannyCarlton

[humbug]

1 minute ago, DannyCarlton said:

Nope. It was a Chinese billionare who hadn't been to China in 4 years. The figures just came straight out of his head.

That interview with mikes Kwok stated the same that his estimate comes from doubling the growth, it’s just his estimates are higher than ever one else’s and the other guests use estimates from john Hopkins university, that every few days it doubles, you also had Nial Ferguson From UK saying similar infection rate, and how it would be in the millions, if you double every few days, everyone is using estimates from past viruses to work out some information, as the CCP is just hiding and lying about all numbers, people have to try to work out what is going on 

[biplanebluey]

21 hours ago, KhunKenAP said:

Prayut's response to the virus.

HaHa Love that one

[DannyCarlton]

9 minutes ago, humbug said:

That interview with mikes Kwok stated the same that his estimate comes from doubling the growth, it’s just his estimates are higher than ever one else’s and the other guests use estimates from john Hopkins university, that every few days it doubles, you also had Nial Ferguson From UK saying similar infection rate, and how it would be in the millions, if you double every few days, everyone is using estimates from past viruses to work out some information, as the CCP is just hiding and lying about all numbers, people have to try to work out what is going on 

He was introduced on the show as Miles Guo, his real name is Guo Wengui, he can't even tell the truth about his name. He's facing serious charges in China including a rape allegation made by a former assistant.

 

Agree that official Chinese figures are suspicious but Guo's figures are far more suspicious. Not good to counter fake news with even faker news.

[humbug]

7 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

He was introduced on the show as Miles Guo, his real name is Guo Wengui, he can't even tell the truth about his name. He's facing serious charges in China including a rape allegation made by a former assistant.

 

Agree that official Chinese figures are suspicious but Guo's figures are far more suspicious. Not good to counter fake news with even faker news.

I wouldn’t trust any news from CCP China about Guo or miles Kwok, and CCP are the masters of fake news, If you don’t like the estimates from miles Kwok or guo, then look out for professor neil Ferguson from the UK’s imperial

college london, maybe his information is more to your estimates, he’s had quite a few recent interviews, I am okay with many estimates, I have no issues with war room, lancet, Ferguson, john Hopkins university, I am just very weary of information now from WHO and CCP China because they both have been caught covering up numbers especially CCP China,