Russia drags down the world economy - Oil prices fall by 20% - Final nail in the coffin?

[Logosone]

That's true, but systemic and scientific changes may mean that a return to the good old days of non-renewable glory days will not happen..

 

All those investments by countries in windmills, hydro energy and such will not go away. The drive towards electric cars will continue.

 

We see with the growing environmental profile raising a real backlash against SUVs in Germany for example, where driving a large car is frowned upon.

 

So it just took a press conference by Trump promising to take strong stimulus action and the market sentiment is reset? USD going up like nothing yesterday.

[ExpatOilWorker]

24 minutes ago, Logosone said:

That's true, but systemic and scientific changes may mean that a return to the good old days of non-renewable glory days will not happen..

 

All those investments by countries in windmills, hydro energy and such will not go away. The drive towards electric cars will continue.

 

We see with the growing environmental profile raising a real backlash against SUVs in Germany for example, where driving a large car is frowned upon.

 

So it just took a press conference by Trump promising to take strong stimulus action and the market sentiment is reset? USD going up like nothing yesterday.

Windmills and solar are static energy, they together with cheap and cleaner natural gas is killing coal.

Oil is mainly used as dynamic (transportation) energy and as feed-stock in the petrochemical industry. 

Attitude among consumers is changing, but when subsidies are removed, people still prefer to purchase larger and safer cars.

 

[Logosone]

You probably have a point. For all the bleating of the Green justice warriors SUVs are still sold even in Germany.

 

Excellent point  about oil being dymanic/transportation energy. And electric transport is still a long way away really.

 

And the green energy does depend on subsidies.

[mshs]

On 3/9/2020 at 6:27 PM, Logosone said:

 

Russia had a lot do with it. They were the ones who unilaterally decided not to cut oil production. 

 

That's why the Saudis were forced to fight for market share aggressively. Because it became clear that cutting production would not work. If Russia does not agree to cut oil production.

Wrong.

 

Oil fell because SA flooded the market, to use that redundant word, unilaterally.

 

Russia is/was producing to capacity.  SA was not.

 

Rest here:

" SArabia was the "restrained" producer, hoping to steady corona-led falling prices..... 

[ExpatOilWorker]

Putin is a cunning strategist. What if he is playing the Saudies and especially MBS for a fool?

China's oil import for January and February 2020 was at a record high. Consumption was low, because of the lockdown so China is filling their strategic reserves hard and fast.

In a couple of months when Europe and the US is struggling with the coronavirus, the PLA could cement their power in the South China Sea, possibly even take Taiwan.

Putin will be the grand chess master of the geopolitical landscape that will follow.

 

[Logosone]

17 hours ago, mshs said:

Wrong.

 

Oil fell because SA flooded the market, to use that redundant word, unilaterally.

 

Russia is/was producing to capacity.  SA was not.

 

Rest here:

" SArabia was the "restrained" producer, hoping to steady corona-led falling prices..... 

 

Wrong.

 

You're cutting out a key piece of the chain of causation.

 

Namely that SA flooded the market AFTER Russia refused to agree to cut oil production.

 

Had Russia agreed SA would NOT have flooded the market. Quite the opposite, they'd have cut production.

 

To argue that Russia had nothing to do with it, is just wrong.

[Logosone]

9 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Putin is a cunning strategist. What if he is playing the Saudies and especially MBS for a fool?

China's oil import for January and February 2020 was at a record high. Consumption was low, because of the lockdown so China is filling their strategic reserves hard and fast.

In a couple of months when Europe and the US is struggling with the coronavirus, the PLA could cement their power in the South China Sea, possibly even take Taiwan.

Putin will be the grand chess master of the geopolitical landscape that will follow.

 

 

The Russians are the masters at chess. Just like in the 60s when they got the US to remove missiles by agreeing to withdraw from Cuba.

 

I don't think China will take Taiwan, but it's possible. 

 

How does refusing to cut oil production give Putin an advantage though?

[ExpatOilWorker]

With Putin you have to look six moves and many years ahead in the game to see the winning strategy. It is ok to lose a bishop now when you can take a Queen later.

China is gaining far more from cheap oil than Russia is losing, so at a later stage China could compensate Russia for its part in the plan. After all, at this stage it is all about money.

Phase II is to let the virus weaken the west.  

 

[Logosone]

Fascinating theory.

 

Would the Russians trust the Chinese like that in the long term? Who knows who'd be in charge in China by then.

[ExpatOilWorker]

On 3/12/2020 at 9:15 AM, ExpatOilWorker said:

Putin is a cunning strategist. What if he is playing the Saudies and especially MBS for a fool?

China's oil import for January and February 2020 was at a record high. Consumption was low, because of the lockdown so China is filling their strategic reserves hard and fast.

In a couple of months when Europe and the US is struggling with the coronavirus, the PLA could cement their power in the South China Sea, possibly even take Taiwan.

Putin will be the grand chess master of the geopolitical landscape that will follow.

 

Just testing the waters?

 

[Cashboy]

On 3/9/2020 at 11:44 AM, spidermike007 said:

Somehow I doubt that there will be much in the way of sympathy, for most of the Arab oil producers, nor for Russia. None of them are what I would refer to as "good citizens". They have not done much good with their wealth. And they have sowed major discord, especially the heinous Saudi regime, the nasty Emirates regime, and of course Dictator Putin. MBS, Sheikh Maktoum, and Putin are always up to no good. That is just who they are. 

Maybe you would like to expand on what "Dictator Putin" has done wrong and what "no good"he has done?

[spidermike007]

47 minutes ago, Cashboy said:

Maybe you would like to expand on what "Dictator Putin" has done wrong and what "no good"he has done?

Sorry. If that has to be explained to you, you are already beyond convincing. Homey don't play the baiting game. 

[Cashboy]

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Sorry. If that has to be explained to you, you are already beyond convincing. Homey don't play the baiting game. 

You mean you have nothing and you will be torn apart and feel a fool.

By the way, I am British but can analyse what is going on in the world for myself and not a MSM sheep that you are more than likely.

 

If you are indeed American, it is nice to see that Donald Trump and Putin are able to talk and respect each other.

That probably really annoys you.

 

Lets talk about military bases outside the USA.  How many?  800 in 70 countries

How many Russian military bases outside Russia?  21.

So who is the aggressor on that basis?

 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Cashboy

[mshs]

On 3/12/2020 at 5:13 AM, Logosone said:

 

Wrong.

 

You're cutting out a key piece of the chain of causation.

 

Namely that SA flooded the market AFTER Russia refused to agree to cut oil production.

 

Had Russia agreed SA would NOT have flooded the market. Quite the opposite, they'd have cut production.

 

To argue that Russia had nothing to do with it, is just wrong.

Wrong again!

 

Here's your chain.  Who has the capacity to flood the market?  Not Russia!

 

SA would NOT have flooded the market, if they did not have the ability to.

[Assurancetourix]

On 3/12/2020 at 9:15 AM, ExpatOilWorker said:

Putin will be the grand chess master of the geopolitical landscape that will follow.

With the help of Arabia he is bringing to its knees the economy of the USA which did not ask for so much.
Shale oil is only profitable if the price of crude oil is at an acceptable price, which has not been the case for several weeks.
Very many American companies that extract this oil are going or have already gone bankrupt.
Russia is recovering a significant number of customers who bought USA.
When prices go up these customers will stay in Russia.

 

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has still not understood, because of its warmonger, that it was necessary to make cosy up with Russia.
The latter naturally turned to its nearest neighbor: China.

[Rancid]

The US have substantial embargoes on Russia and played games and tried to block Nordstream, now the Russians are paying back in kind. Not sure why some still believe all the evil Russian nonsense the progressive US keeps throwing up, could prove zero after all their investigations.

 

Russia is neither good nor bad, simply acts in its own interests, like most countries. I do find interesting that US policy was historically always to divide Russia and China, and yet now they have pushed them together, creating an adversary with the tech on one side and massive manufacturing on the other. Meanwhile the US slides on both tech and manufacturing due to the greed and corruption of its corporations and military contractors. Madness.

[Logosone]

Russia will not bring down the US economy even if all Shale oil producers go bankrupt.

 

That will be like a pinprick for an economy the size of the US.

 

 

[Leaver]

24 minutes ago, Rancid said:

Russia is neither good nor bad, simply acts in its own interests, like most countries.

Russia was progressing well, until they invaded Crimea.  A nice move by Putin, to put Russians behind The Iron Curtain again, where he can control them.