Thailand heading towards recession as Covid-19 ravages world economy

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, Enzian said:

Will the third quarter be the time to buy that Sukhumvit condo I've always wanted?

For those that don't live in lala Thailand, it's never time to buy property in Thailand. Just read some of the hard luck stories on TVF by people that ignored good advice and bought condos.

[JMSIII]

4 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Covid 19 isn't ravaging the world economy- it's the actions of some governments in reaction to it that is causing the problem.

It's also caused by putting too many eggs in one basket ie China. That was always a recipe for disaster. The Thai government should have learned the lesson when all the Russians stopped going to LOS.

Fighting over toilet paper- couldn't make it up.

I agree.  The common flu has a much higher current death rate...  The media is to blame for a lot of the hysteria.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, JMSIII said:

I agree.  The common flu has a much higher current death rate...  The media is to blame for a lot of the hysteria.

Oh please!!!

[thaibeachlovers]

2 minutes ago, saengd said:

The psychology behind it is fascinating: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-are-people-panic-buying-and-why-toilet-paper-11952397

I don't read web sites that demand that I accept their spyware, so didn't read it, but I'm sure it had some of the answers. Toilet paper is never in short supply as long as people read newspapers.

[thaibeachlovers]

7 minutes ago, JMSIII said:

 

This was done by George Soros shorting the Thai baht with 1 Billion of his dollars.  He has openly bragged about what he did to Thailand and the UK.

 

Soros is still very active in many negative ways around the world.

 

Now is NOT the time to keep making the baht stronger.  Thai people have been hurting since 2014, when their money purchasing power has continually declined...

 

Soros himself has remarked:

“For instance, by selling the Thai baht short in January 1997, the Quantum Fund managed by my investment company sent a market signal that the baht may be overvalued. Had the authorities responded to the depletion of their reserves, the adjustment would have occurred sooner and been less painful. But the authorities allowed their reserves to run down; the break, when it came, was catastrophic."

If hell exists, Soros is destined for the deepest circles of it, IMO.

[JMSIII]

8 minutes ago, saengd said:

Oh please!!!

Editor's note: Updated March 6 with the latest information on COVID-19. 

The new coronavirus outbreak has made headlines in recent weeks, but there's another viral epidemic hitting countries around the world: flu season. But how do these viruses compare, and which one is really more worrisome?

So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 100,000 illnesses and more than 3,000 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 

 

Here is the link, you can read it for yourself:  https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

[Bkk Brian]

16 minutes ago, JMSIII said:

Editor's note: Updated March 6 with the latest information on COVID-19. 

The new coronavirus outbreak has made headlines in recent weeks, but there's another viral epidemic hitting countries around the world: flu season. But how do these viruses compare, and which one is really more worrisome?

So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 100,000 illnesses and more than 3,000 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 

 

Here is the link, you can read it for yourself:  https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Yes but the paragraph directly following that states 

 

"That said, scientists have studied seasonal flu for decades. So, despite the danger of it, we know a lot about flu viruses and what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about the new coronavirus and the disease it causes, dubbed COVID-19, because it's so new. This means COVID-19 is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause."

 

In addition the death rate is higher than seasonal flu.

[saengd]

18 minutes ago, JMSIII said:

Editor's note: Updated March 6 with the latest information on COVID-19. 

The new coronavirus outbreak has made headlines in recent weeks, but there's another viral epidemic hitting countries around the world: flu season. But how do these viruses compare, and which one is really more worrisome?

So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 100,000 illnesses and more than 3,000 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 

 

Here is the link, you can read it for yourself:  https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

From your link:

 

"The death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu". 

 

Stop wasting my time, out.

[connda]

8 hours ago, Muzzique said:

There was a fake news story that told people that toilet paper manufacturer would stop as they will use it to make face masks. For some reason it never died. Even if it were true I'm not sure why they can't just recycle it after its been used instead. I'm sure no one would mind the odd skid mark on a mask if it saved their lives. You could just say it was a camouflage print.

It's amazing what happens when you're brought up in a culture where you wipe your bum as opposed to washing it.  I keep telling my American friends and family: "Buy one of those kitchen sink rinsers and install it in the bathroom.  They are a lot more hygienic.  Ever wonder why many Thai think farangs smell.  It's because they do.  

[saengd]

34 minutes ago, JMSIII said:

 

This was done by George Soros shorting the Thai baht with 1 Billion of his dollars.  He has openly bragged about what he did to Thailand and the UK.

 

Soros is still very active in many negative ways around the world.

 

Now is NOT the time to keep making the baht stronger.  Thai people have been hurting since 2014, when their money purchasing power has continually declined...

 

Soros himself has remarked:

“For instance, by selling the Thai baht short in January 1997, the Quantum Fund managed by my investment company sent a market signal that the baht may be overvalued. Had the authorities responded to the depletion of their reserves, the adjustment would have occurred sooner and been less painful. But the authorities allowed their reserves to run down; the break, when it came, was catastrophic."

Once again your comments are wildly inaccurate and misleading!

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-george-soros-broke-the-bank-of-thailand-2016-9

 

Soros was not responsible for the Asian crisis, offshore borrowing in USD was, as was BOT's foreign currency reserves mismanagement (all the reserves were tied up in long dated instruments hence they were unable to defend the Baht). Soros did indeed take an offshore position against THB but he was not the cause of BOT removing the USD peg. And just so you know, THB is a restricted currency that cannot be held in volume outside Thailand, it is not fully convertible. As a consequence it would not be possible for an offshore financial institution or trader to take a position against THB.

 

Now stop posting false and misleading information, there's a forum rule against doing so. 

 

 

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

On 3/9/2020 at 4:59 AM, webfact said:

The government plans to hand out Bt2,000 each to low-income people, estimated to be about 14 million. Anusorn said to make it effective, the government should target those currently holding State Welfare cards and members of the National Savings Fund.

 

The stimulus may boost the economy by 0.015 to 0.03 percentage point, preventing it from contracting by more than two per cent.

so that is why they hand out 2000 baht to "low income people"...not because they care about them, but 

because they care about the "2% contraction" and economic face...

[JMSIII]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

Once again your comments are wildly inaccurate and misleading!

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-george-soros-broke-the-bank-of-thailand-2016-9

 

Soros was not responsible for the Asian crisis, offshore borrowing in USD was, as was BOT's foreign currency reserves mismanagement (all the reserves were tied up in long dated instruments hence they were unable to defend the Baht). Soros did indeed take an offshore position against THB but he was not the cause of BOT removing the USD peg. And just so you know, THB is a restricted currency that cannot be held in volume outside Thailand, it is not fully convertible. As a consequence it would not be possible for an offshore financial institution or trader to take a position against THB.

 

Now stop posting false and misleading information, there's a forum rule against doing so. 

 

 

Nope, you are wrong.  George Soros has bragged about what he did in the UK and Thailand back in 97.  It's even in a 60 minutes interview, but I will let you find that.  And you should take you own advice about posting false and misleading information...

[saengd]

21 minutes ago, JMSIII said:

Nope, you are wrong.  George Soros has bragged about what he did in the UK and Thailand back in 97.  It's even in a 60 minutes interview, but I will let you find that.  And you should take you own advice about posting false and misleading information...

Troll

 

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/1997/07/31/of-crashes-and-conspirators

 

http://factsanddetails.com/southeast-asia/Thailand/sub5_8g/entry-3309.html

Edited March 10, 2020 by saengd

[Tony125]

4 hours ago, saengd said:

When people can't afford to live here and/or meet the financial requirements for a long stay visa, they move to a cheaper country where the restrictions are less severe. That's a slippery slope, all countries in the region are tightening their visa requirements, Vietnam just did.

And for 1400 USd  and  a deposit to a Phillippine bank of 1500 USD an ex-military ( Honorable Discharge) person can get a lifelong visa. I may be doing that after I visit the Phillippines later to check out the different areas.  SRRV (Special Resident Retirement Visa).  Courtesy Expanded

[Neilly]

Iceland, population 364,260 with 69 confirmed cases

 

Thailand, population 69,428,453 with 53 confirmed cases

 

When is someone going to call them out on these unrealistic figures?...and no I don't mean Iceland's ????

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[EricTh]

15 hours ago, findlay13 said:

???? I would say even before last year though .The overvalued baht was hitting the economy for awhile now.

 

The Chinese tourists helped prop up the economy even though the Thai baht is strong. Thailand's economy is based mainly on tourism. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand#Top_25_arrivals_by_nationality

 

Now that the Chinese tourists are gone, the economy will be hit and the Thai baht might go down if there is no inflow of speculation money.

Edited March 10, 2020 by EricTh

[Soikhaonoiken]

On 3/9/2020 at 9:18 AM, Peterw42 said:

It appears the baht is still remaining strong.

Wonder why, think they are playing with the figures, which will come back and bite hard... 

[saengd]

7 hours ago, EricTh said:

 

The Chinese tourists helped prop up the economy even though the Thai baht is strong. Thailand's economy is based mainly on tourism. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand#Top_25_arrivals_by_nationality

 

Now that the Chinese tourists are gone, the economy will be hit and the Thai baht might go down if there is no inflow of speculation money.

A few things:

 

Thailand's economy is not based on tourism it's based on exports which account for 65% of GDP, of that amount tourism represents about 20%.

 

Speculative Money: BOT has put measures in place to prevent unwanted inflows and to prevent speculative investments, bond sales were even suspended to prevent this. And by extending the length of time exporters have before they must repatriate overseas earnings they are sending very clear messages, we do not want you to buy Baht because doing so makes it stronger. BOT has even introduced mew measures that allow Thai citizens to invest overseas up to a record amount, allowing them to do so will mean those people will sell Baht and hopefully weaken the currency.

 

Baht Going Down: The problem with the Baht is current account strength which is mainly a function of the trade surplus, exports are higher than imports. Now tourist numbers have fallen and presumably exports will take also fall so in theory that should reduce the trade surplus. BUT because exports have reduced that means business is not as productive as it might be and people are earning less money, that means the demand for imports will also fall, the effect of those things is that exports will remain higher than imports albeit both will remain at a lower level than before.

 

Reducing the gap between exports and imports means Thailand need to spend its income differently, it needs to open up to outside competition and import more and balance its trade. But of course doing that threatens the security of home grown markets and favored relationships with countries such as Japan for example, it would also threaten the revenue streams of large Thai conglomerates which would prevent such businesses from buying companies such as Tesco!

 

 

[saengd]

6 hours ago, Soikhaonoiken said:

Wonder why, think they are playing with the figures, which will come back and bite hard... 

Every year the Thai Government and BOT sells over a trillion Baht's worth of bonds, most of it is designed to finance budget debt. Bond sales are usually oversubscribed, Thai bonds are well regarded and considered to be good quality international debt.

 

Bonds sell at a price relative to their face value, duration and coupon rate. In very simple terms and by way of an exaggerated example they say, here's a clutch of bonds worth say 1 million baht, paying 3% interest, redeemable in ten years, in ten years time we will give you your 1 million back again, in the meantime we'll pay you 3% interest per year.

 

Over 17% of all bond sales are to foreign entities, large banks, insurance companies, governments etc, people who understand finance, economics and investments.

 

Do you think those companies/people would buy Thai bonds on that sort of scale if they had even the slightest whiff that somebody might be playing with the figures or if they even suspected that the Baht was being manipulated?

 

 

[saengd]

9 hours ago, Tony125 said:

And for 1400 USd  and  a deposit to a Phillippine bank of 1500 USD an ex-military ( Honorable Discharge) person can get a lifelong visa. I may be doing that after I visit the Phillippines later to check out the different areas.  SRRV (Special Resident Retirement Visa).  Courtesy Expanded

I think people need to be careful with such things, the winds of change are blowing and countries are changing the rules for visa and residency along with the financial thresholds. Just because something looks doable today doesn't mean it's going to remain that way forever and moving countries when you're in old age isn't the greatest thing. The other consideration is that every change of country for financial reasons usually involves a downgrade in lifestyle, infrastructure and security, neither the PI nor Cambodia are exactly revered for their medical care and low crime.

[Oziex1]

Like the photo, they have all their eggs in one basket, Tourism.

[saengd]

12 minutes ago, Oziex1 said:

Like the photo, they have all their eggs in one basket, Tourism.

I guess you write but don't read!

[Oziex1]

4 minutes ago, saengd said:

I guess you write but don't read!

Read? Read the stories why on earth would I want to do that.

I'm not on Thai Visa to read stories I'm here to respond to the other posts and write whatever i want.????

[saengd]

1 minute ago, Oziex1 said:

Read? Read the stories why on earth would I want to do that.

I'm not on Thai Visa to read stories I'm here to respond to the other posts and write whatever i want.????

Sadly that's true of many posters, that's why so few will ever get smarter and more wealthy, each to their own I suppose.

[Oziex1]

3 minutes ago, Oziex1 said:

Read? Read the stories why on earth would I want to do that.

I'm not on Thai Visa to read stories I'm here to respond to the other posts and write whatever i want.????

Don't be sad saengd its all fun.

[spidermike007]

On 3/10/2020 at 7:41 AM, RichardColeman said:

I predict the following Junta based story.

 

Thailand's 2020 economy beats world' recession.

Thailand continues to beat the world recession with a booming export business and growing tourism whilst the rest of the world continues it's decline. Thai Ministry says this was due to great planning, populace support and amulets.

 

 

 

Exports are falling off a cliff, at the moment. Massive amounts of money are being pulled out of the SET. Tourism is contracting, and quality tourism, (not the quantity over quality type) has been shrinking for six years now. There is NO PLANNING, and the populace absolutely despises the army, now more than ever. However the amulet thing is probably accurate. That is all they got!

[saengd]

Just now, spidermike007 said:

 

Exports are falling off a cliff, at the moment. Massive amounts of money are being pulled out of the SET. Tourism is contracting, and quality tourism, (not the quantity over quality type) has been shrinking for six years now. There is NO PLANNING, and the populace absolutely despises the army, now more than ever. However the amulet thing is probably accurate. That is all they got!

Have you seen the latest export numbers?

[spidermike007]

10 minutes ago, saengd said:

Have you seen the latest export numbers?

Yes. And they are bad.

 

Thailand's economy likely slowed in the last quarter of 2019 as exports were hit by trade tensions, while full-year growth may have eased to the weakest in five years, a Reuters poll showed.

The trade-reliant economy has been buffeted by the Sino-U.S. trade war, soft domestic demand, a delayed fiscal budget and drought. Tourism, which was a bright spot, is being hit by the coronavirus outbreak.

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy was forecast to have expanded 2.1% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to the poll's median of 12 economists.

That would be the slowest pace since 2014's third quarter of 1.1%, and compared with the 2.4% rate in the previous quarter.

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/poll-thai-q4-growth-to-slow-to-5-year-low-as-exports-drop-2020-outlook-tougher-2020-02-14

 

 

[gk10002000]

Covid19 is not ravaging the economy.  Stupid ignorant people are over reacting.  People are stopping the planes, stopping the ships, closing entry and exit points.  Let the virus run its course and be done with it.  Nobody is stopping the virus. Hundreds of millions of people have been exposed and have it.  Most have no or little reaction to it.  Slowing things down, slowing the world trade down just drags things out.  More people will die from car accidents and cancer due to smoking cigarettes than due to this virus.   A small culling of the weak and old is good for the herd.  It's nature's way.

[saengd]

7 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Yes. And they are bad.

 

Thailand's economy likely slowed in the last quarter of 2019 as exports were hit by trade tensions, while full-year growth may have eased to the weakest in five years, a Reuters poll showed.

The trade-reliant economy has been buffeted by the Sino-U.S. trade war, soft domestic demand, a delayed fiscal budget and drought. Tourism, which was a bright spot, is being hit by the coronavirus outbreak.

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy was forecast to have expanded 2.1% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to the poll's median of 12 economists.

That would be the slowest pace since 2014's third quarter of 1.1%, and compared with the 2.4% rate in the previous quarter.

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/poll-thai-q4-growth-to-slow-to-5-year-low-as-exports-drop-2020-outlook-tougher-2020-02-14

 

 

The link is to a poll, that's an opinion piece, I was referring to actual reporting of export values.

 

I'll save you the trouble of looking, January exports were up 3% because of gold shipments, February numbers will be reported in about another week, I was therefore wondering how exactly you thought that exports are falling off a cliff!

 

It's worth saying yet again that exports are down compared to the previous six months but also that they reached an all time high of USD 22.5 billion in July last year. The rate of export growth between 2015 and 2019 was a rate that couldn't be sustained in even a brilliant economic environment so a fall in the past few months is not unexpected, January's figures put us back at 2016 levels, not exactly the cliff that you describe.