What lies beyond the epidemic

[Brunolem]

Reading the forecasts published by the Thai tourism authority, and by many economists worldwide makes one wonder.

 

"Only" 30 million or so tourists this year in Thailand, and a V shaped economic recovery for the second quarter of 2020, with GDP growth only moderately affected by year end...

 

Guys, guys, guys...down to Earth!

 

Assuming that the coronavirus would go into hibernation during summertime, there are still 2 months of winter or semi-winter in the Northern hemisphere to cope with.

 

And 2 months ago, no one was infected outside China...so imagine where the world could be 2 months from now.

 

Yes, it seems that a lockdown might be effective, but this strategy is quite costly since it implies a simultaneous shutdown of the economy in the concerned region.

 

That's for starter...then what?

 

Do these spin doctors believe that once the epidemic (not a "pandemic" before next July because of some obscure financial shenanigans at the WHO) recedes, people are immediately going to rush to restaurants, cinemas and planes, in order to make for the lost time?

 

What the TAT doesn't seem to grasp is that most tourists, save those coming from neighboring countries, do not decide to travel to Thailand on a whim...they plan such a trip months in advance.

 

Opening their front door for the first time in weeks or months, they are not going to say "hey, you know what, let's go to Thailand!".

 

It will take months for the affected populations to regain their habits and start looking beyond tomorrow.

 

All this to say that the most likely scenario is that 2020 will be a lost year...at best!

[NCC1701A]

Bloomberg with coverage of Italy being in 100% lockdown.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dp8PhLsUcFE

[Golden Triangle]

I make you right on the nail with that mate.

[Kwasaki]

What lies beyond the epidemic, easy really the next epidemic. 

[NCC1701A]

maybe people will wake up. this could be a tremendous opportunity for Thailand.

 

"The more civilized humans became, building cities and forging trade routes to connect with other cities, and waging wars with them, the more likely pandemics became. See a timeline below of pandemics that, in ravaging human populations, changed history."

 

https://www.history.com/topics/middle-ages/pandemics-timeline

[thaibeachlovers]

3 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

What lies beyond the epidemic, easy really the next epidemic. 

As long as humans continue to move to cities epidemics will become more common. Cities are the ideal way to spread disease to lots of people and mass air travel is the best way to spread it worldwide.

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

As long as humans continue to move to cities epidemics will become more common. Cities are the ideal way to spread disease to lots of people and mass air travel is the best way to spread it worldwide.

Mother nature's way of culling I guess.

[blackcab]

A post with oversized font has been removed.

[Traubert]

10 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Opening their front door for the first time in weeks or months, they are not going to say "hey, you know what, let's go to Thailand!".

 

The Chinese will. Many cities are coming out of isolation in the next few days, mine included. No new cases detected in 28 days. There's already four provinces coloured white on the map (infection free) and in a week there'll be ten. There'll be a lot of health officials with new time on their hands to issue medical certificates if need be.

 

My own city re-opens on Friday, Guangzhou on Monday, flights never stopped although they were sparsely used. That's a lot of people with pent up travel needs, delayed plans.

 

Country wide 60000 recovered and 17790 still in hospital, the vast majority in Hubei and Wuhan city. Roughly 1300 a day are being discharged.

 

Sadly, I just got back from Thailand so I'm still banged up for 11 days. ????

Edited March 10, 2020 by Traubert
Addition

[Grumpy John]

Once the worst is over it will be back to the same old same old.  Think I am wrong?  So how many times a day do you normally  think about the flu...or MERS,  or SARS1, or H1N1?  Unless you were direcTly effected I suspect not much if aT all. 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Grumpy John
Smelling

[Brunolem]

1 minute ago, Grumpy John said:

Once the worst is over it will be back to the same old same old.  Think I am wrong?  So how many times a day do you normally  think about the flu...or MERS,  or SARS1, or H1N1?  Unless you were direcTly effected I suspect not much if a all. 

MERS and SARS didn't put entire countries in lockdown.

 

At some point, things may go back to same old, but not right away.

 

Most people are going to think twice before moving away from home, especially to far away countries...

 

[cmarshall]

Here is a useful graph from the Financial Times showing rates of infection.  China is not included, nor is Thailand.  The US is about 2 weeks behind Italy according to the confirmed cases, but the actual number of cases is certainly higher because of very limited testing.  The next few weeks are going to be horrible.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

 

[UbonThani]

On 3/11/2020 at 7:56 PM, Brunolem said:

MERS and SARS didn't put entire countries in lockdown.

 

At some point, things may go back to same old, but not right away.

 

Most people are going to think twice before moving away from home, especially to far away countries...

 

Corona is a con job. Swine flu killed 575k.

 

 

[jastheace]

On 3/11/2020 at 9:53 AM, Grumpy John said:

Once the worst is over it will be back to the same old same old.  Think I am wrong?  So how many times a day do you normally  think about the flu...or MERS,  or SARS1, or H1N1?  Unless you were direcTly effected I suspect not much if aT all. 

H1N1 has a bit of history, i'm just thinking of around 1917. I wasn't directly affected. but a few were. I believe that was given the tag ' spanish flu'. if cv19 is as weak as you think, then I will be happy. think you are wrong? no, fingers crossed you guessed correct.

[jastheace]

33 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

Corona is a con job. Swine flu killed 575k.

 

 

clocks still ticking...????

[saengd]

ASEAN and Chinese tourists represent the bulk of tourists visiting Thailand in 2019, given that China is now starting to recover a V shaped recovery is entirely possible but 2Q20 seems premature, especially since that's low season anyway. I think we're probably looking at one more full quarter of downturn plus some of the following quarter, by September there should be a semblance of normality 

[cmarshall]

33 minutes ago, saengd said:

ASEAN and Chinese tourists represent the bulk of tourists visiting Thailand in 2019, given that China is now starting to recover a V shaped recovery is entirely possible but 2Q20 seems premature, especially since that's low season anyway. I think we're probably looking at one more full quarter of downturn plus some of the following quarter, by September there should be a semblance of normality 

Unless, of course, the infection lasts for two years like the 1918 Spanish Flu or the 2009 Swine Flu epidemics.

[AlexRich]

My fear about this is that it follows a similar path to the 1918 pandemic, which came in three waves, before disappearing. The first wave was like a heavy flu, with some deaths. But it was the second wave that caused the most deaths. The virus mutated and became more efficient and aggressive. It killed many in the 20-35 age range, and some died within a few hours. The third wave was milder, and didn’t cause the same level of damage. At least 50 million died. 
 

Let’s hope that we knock it on the head by the end of the Summer.

[saengd]

30 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Unless, of course, the infection lasts for two years like the 1918 Spanish Flu or the 2009 Swine Flu epidemics.

Yes sure, but I wouldn't want to do any future planning or forecasting on the basis that it will, it's simply a risk.

[Chazar]

29 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

My fear about this is that it follows a similar path to the 1918 pandemic, which came in three waves, before disappearing. The first wave was like a heavy flu, with some deaths. But it was the second wave that caused the most deaths. The virus mutated and became more efficient and aggressive. It killed many in the 20-35 age range, and some died within a few hours. The third wave was milder, and didn’t cause the same level of damage. At least 50 million died. 
 

Let’s hope that we knock it on the head by the end of the Summer.

1918 when healthcare was not as  advanced

[scubascuba3]

the problem with any lockdowns is as soon as it's stopped it only takes 1 case to kick off further spread. This seems to be why UK is going for delay and herd immunity. If this drags into winter later this year it will be even worse.

 

Maybe Thailand is just lucky with the heat. 2020 down the toilet for every country, 2021 maybe half the year

Edited March 12, 2020 by scubascuba3

[rvaviator]

33 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

My fear about this is that it follows a similar path to the 1918 pandemic, which came in three waves, before disappearing. The first wave was like a heavy flu, with some deaths. But it was the second wave that caused the most deaths. The virus mutated and became more efficient and aggressive. It killed many in the 20-35 age range, and some died within a few hours. The third wave was milder, and didn’t cause the same level of damage. At least 50 million died. 
 

Let’s hope that we knock it on the head by the end of the Summer.

Well one would guess that medical science may have moved on a bit since then - So hopefully in a year or so we will have a vaccine. Unless of course one are a subscriber to the 'big pharma bad boy theory' ..... 

 

It reminds me of a bumper sticker from US .. If you do not like the police, next time you are burgled, call a hippie ... Maybe 'big pharma should do a similar one  ... If you don't like big Pharma, Next time you are sick, call a Witch doctor  

[cmarshall]

21 minutes ago, Chazar said:

1918 when healthcare was not as  advanced

In some respects that's obviously true, but the essential steps that need to be take now, which are quarantine and social distancing, haven't changed since 1918.  At some point there will be a vaccine, but not now when we need it most.

 

Also, treatment for acute cases is much improved with respirators used in a critical care setting, but the capacity for such treatment is strictly limited even in rich countries.  A fast-spreading virus like corona will quickly overwhelm the medical facilities so that many sick people would have no more chance of effective treatment than they would have had in 1918.

Edited March 12, 2020 by cmarshall

[cmarshall]

9 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

the problem with any lockdowns is as soon as it's stopped it only takes 1 case to kick off further spread. This seems to be why UK is going for delay and herd immunity. If this drags into winter later this year it will be even worse.

 

Maybe Thailand is just lucky with the heat. 2020 down the toilet for every country, 2021 maybe half the year

Why the virus hasn't spread rapidly in Thailand is puzzling.  Ambient temperature is a possible explanation.  It's also possible that the Thais have been under-reporting or under-testing, but we don't hear that the hospitals are overwhelmed.  In the beginning when the infection rate is low chance can play a big role in the rate of spreading.  I see that the confirmed count just jumped from 43 to 70 in a few days.  If it doubles again quickly, then we are off and running.

[DannyCarlton]

2 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Why the virus hasn't spread rapidly in Thailand is puzzling.  Ambient temperature is a possible explanation.  It's also possible that the Thais have been under-reporting or under-testing, but we don't hear that the hospitals are overwhelmed.  In the beginning when the infection rate is low chance can play a big role in the rate of spreading.  I see that the confirmed count just jumped from 43 to 70 in a few days.  If it doubles again quickly, then we are off and running.

A lot less personal contact here. Less than any country I've ever visited. No shaking hands, a wai at a respectful distance and no public hugging. Of countries that I've visited, the opposite end of the spectrum would be......Italy.

[scubascuba3]

1 minute ago, DannyCarlton said:

A lot less personal contact here. Less than any country I've ever visited. No shaking hands, a wai at a respectful distance and no public hugging. Of countries that I've visited, the opposite end of the spectrum would be......Italy.

Yes, Italians also are close talkers plus talk a lot and spray, that must be a factor. Anyone disagree?

[cmarshall]

1 minute ago, DannyCarlton said:

A lot less personal contact here. Less than any country I've ever visited. No shaking hands, a wai at a respectful distance and no public hugging. Of countries that I've visited, the opposite end of the spectrum would be......Italy.

Maybe, but within China the huge difference between the infection rates in Wuhan and Chongqing aren't due to cultural differences, but to how quickly the local government imposed quarantine and other containment measures.

[scubascuba3]

Just now, cmarshall said:

Maybe, but within China the huge difference between the infection rates in Wuhan and Chongqing aren't due to cultural differences, but to how quickly the local government imposed quarantine and other containment measures.

but once quarantine is lifted it could spread again

[Gumballl]

Eventually a vaccine will be developed. It will be dispensed just like the flu vaccine, thus mitigating wide spread occurrences of COVID-19.

 

Naturally, side effects of this vaccine will be that those vaccinated will turn into zombies, and the whole COVID-19 fiasco will be lost to history.

[cmarshall]

Just now, scubascuba3 said:

but once quarantine is lifted it could spread again

Of course, but the discussion was about the differential rates of infection in Thailand and other countries, not future long-term outcomes.