This is a screaming buy...what funds/shares are you buying?

[rwill]

13 hours ago, rwill said:

CEQP. At the price right now, about $3.20, it is paying over 50% dividend yield.  Buy it now and you are locking in that yield even when the share prices go back up. DHT also with a dividend and has dropped way less than the market. ZOOM has been been going up overall in a down market, teleconferencing company . 

Sorry, the ticker for ZOOM is ZM. 

[saengd]

I know a little bit about BBofC, Saxena was a client for a few months, that was plain and simple crooked dealings. And there have been other bank failures of course, it might surprise you to learn that over 4,000 financial institutions have failed in the US in the past 50 years. So what, banks fail, the important thing is that banks in Thailand haven't failed since a revamped BOT took charge after the '97 crash.

 

Deutsche Bank is not a typical example of anything really, their role in the GFC was key to their downfall, it is a lesson in how not to run a bank.

 

If you're going to look at Thai banks history you really have to look at the time since 1997 because their performance and stability have been usually strong and robust since that time, Bank of Ayudhya (sp) for example is owned by bank Mitusbishi and has assets of over USD 2.5 trill. The revamped BOT has taken their governance and oversight role seriously since the crash, there is no doubt at all the central bank is going to make absolutely certain there are no failures on its watch. And the credit bureaus agree, last year Moody's and S&P upgraded all of them.

 

 

[Omnipotent]

47 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

With due respect, Deutsche Bank has 14.15% but is still hanging by a thread.

 

https://annualreport.deutsche-bank.com/2017/ar/risk-report/risk-and-capital-performance/capital-and-leverage-ratio/minimum-capital-requirements.html

 

And in Thailand history shows Thai banks have not been immune to failures.

 

"Although the scale of money involved in the Bangkok Bank of Commerce is unprecedented by Thai standards, bank collapses are nothing new in this fast developing South-east Asian nation.

The first incident was in 1984 when the Asia Trust Bank Co., owned by the Sino-Thai Tarnvanichkul family, collapsed due to excessive lending of funds to people close to the management. After Asia Trust chairman Wallop Tarnvanichkul fled to Hong Kong to escape prosecution, the bank was taken over by the government and subsequently merged with the state-owned Krung Tahi Bank.

The second case occurred in 1986 when the First Bangkok City Bank Co., faced bankruptcy due to its funds being used for speculation in Hong Kong’s foreign currency market.

Also during the past decade, disputes and scandals have broken out in several other small and medium-sized family run banks including the Siam City Bank, Union Bank of Bangkok and Laemthong Bank that have rocked the Thai financial system.

According to a report prepared by Moodys — the U.S. based credit rating agency — the transparency of financial statements issued by Thai Banks is “generally poor”."

 

http://www.ipsnews.net/1996/07/thailand-finance-banking-scandal-erodes-public-confidence/

 

If Deutsche Bank can fail, I have no doubt Thai Banks could fail.

 

But again, there is absolutely no sign of that now, whatsoever, so I'm actually opening a Thai bank account.

But not donating your life savings I’m sure ????

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

I know a little bit about BBofC, Saxena was a client for a few months, that was plain and simple crooked dealings. And there have been other bank failures of course, it might surprise you to learn that over 4,000 financial institutions have failed in the US in the past 50 years. So what, banks fail, the important thing is that banks in Thailand haven't failed since a revamped BOT took charge after the '97 crash.

 

Deutsche Bank is not a typical example of anything really, their role in the GFC was key to their downfall, it is a lesson in how not to run a bank.

 

If you're going to look at Thai banks history you really have to look at the time since 1997 because their performance and stability have been usually strong and robust since that time, Bank of Ayudhya (sp) for example is owned by bank Mitusbishi and has assets of over USD 2.5 trill. The revamped BOT has taken their governance and oversight role seriously since the crash, there is no doubt at all the central bank is going to make absolutely certain there are no failures on its watch. And the credit bureaus agree, last year Moody's and S&P upgraded all of them.

 

 

That is very assuring. And yes DB seems to be managed by fly by nights for a long time.

 

Let's hope the oversight is as tight as you say.

[Logosone]

57 minutes ago, Omnipotent said:

But not donating your life savings I’m sure ????

I'm putting in minimal cash flow needs for monthly expenses, since I don't want to pay the 220 Baht for each withdrawal.

 

Also for the visa requirements. 

 

So minimal amounts.

[Omnipotent]

34 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I'm putting in minimal cash flow needs for monthly expenses, since I don't want to pay the 220 Baht for each withdrawal.

 

Also for the visa requirements. 

 

So minimal amounts.

Withdrawals and bill payments in Thailand are minimal and nowhere near 220baht so I take it your acc is to be used elsewhere...,It’s a volatile markets and nothing is sure at the moment...I will be all in bullion with a couple of years expenses spread out on cash.(And in for my life on property...but they are all for my son so no heartache there as they are a long haul investment)

 

p.s Apologies if I have went off topic... 

I’m 100% in for Gold physical bullion, I wish I could get my hands on Physical Silver bullion I would be interested,I’ve always been put off on the tax here,Why they have tax here on Silver I have no idea.

If you have physical proven bullion Silver (not scrap) and need to sell some Kg’s at a good rate, drop me a me Line thanks.

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by Omnipotent

[eisfeld]

2 minutes ago, Omnipotent said:

Withdrawals and bill payments in Thailand are minimal and nowhere near 220baht so I take it your acc is to be used elsewhere...

He probably has no Thai bank account yet and uses a german card to withdraw.

[DaRoadrunner]

On 3/18/2020 at 1:40 PM, Logosone said:

 

Definitely, Easy Jet is a screaming buy, also Heathrow Airport holdings, Fraport, Carluccio's restaurant and Cineworld are also screaming buys.

 

Would definitely buy those companies with a glittering future ahead....

 

 

 Big airlines are shut down and struggling. Small ones like Easy Jet may go bankrupt?

Edited March 19, 2020 by DaRoadrunner

[swissie]

So many interesting posts. To break the monotony, I have decided to post the most boring post (hoping to win a price for it):
- 1929 will not be repeated (Helicopter-Money will prevent it).
- Buy low, sell high.
- For every panic-seller, there is a level-headed buyer.
- Leveraged accounts, needing to sell everything, including their kitchen-sinks to cover margin-calls are by now out of the market.
- Asset holders, refusing to sell their "kitchen-sink" at a 50% discount, refusing to do so.

The bottom is near.

Warning! To sell now, (instead of nibbling at the Smorgasboard of opportunities, your sons and daughters will never foregive you.)
As promised, I just delivered the most boring post within this thread.

[URMySunshine]

On 3/18/2020 at 5:01 AM, kenk24 said:

Been liquid for quite a while [month or so]... no plans to buy for a while... the recession is yet to come, profit announcements going forward etc... mnaybe at Dow 15k or lower,... for the moment, I am happily on the sidelines... 

Cash is a potential problem though - in a bank - a bank run  , a bank holiday and a government haircut down the line for the small guys. I'm buying a Rolex tmrw - better than gold and easy to hide. Plus wine and spirits I'm buying those like there's no tomorrow in the UK - that is MONEY. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by URMySunshine

[Airalee]

I wouldn’t put any faith into what Moody’s or S&P state with regards to anything.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/bearstearns-rating-sandp-idUSN3023316620070730

[URMySunshine]

1 minute ago, Airalee said:

I wouldn’t put any faith into what Moody’s or S&P state with regards to anything.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/bearstearns-rating-sandp-idUSN3023316620070730

Stuff's going to being blowing up all over the place though - anyone who says they can call this market is a liar or deluded or both. 

[Airalee]

2 minutes ago, URMySunshine said:

Stuff's going to being blowing up all over the place though - anyone who says they can call this market is a liar or deluded or both. 

Exactly...which is why so many of the most vocal contributors to the “all is well in Thailand” chorus should be summarily discounted.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ratings-lawsuit/moodys-sp-and-fitch-sued-over-failed-bear-stearns-funds-idUSBRE9AA0QF20131111

[URMySunshine]

4 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Exactly...which is why so many of the most vocal contributors to the “all is well in Thailand” chorus should be summarily discounted.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ratings-lawsuit/moodys-sp-and-fitch-sued-over-failed-bear-stearns-funds-idUSBRE9AA0QF20131111

Social unrest of some sort is sort of baked in at this stage. How far it will go and how bloody it maybe will be down to how much faith is put in the army and whether the levers of the dinosaurs still work. Pondering if mid-ranking army might turn al la 1932 if so that could be good for everybody (dinosaurs excepted). Well that's my hope anyway. If that happens there's a huge pot of real money to bring to Thailand's table. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by URMySunshine

[Logosone]

24 minutes ago, DaRoadrunner said:

 Big airlines are shut down and struggling. Small ones like Easy Jet may go bankrupt?

I was being sarcastic. I would not be surprised if Easy Jet goes bankrupt.

 

Again, I would not invest in airlines.

 

I would invest in Crematoria.

[URMySunshine]

1 minute ago, Logosone said:

I was being sarcastic. I would not be surprised if Easy Jet goes bankrupt.

 

Again, I would not invest in airlines.

 

I would invest in Crematoria.

There's gallows humour there but that is pretty much a government monopoly. Undertaker's though....

[saengd]

2 hours ago, Airalee said:

Exactly...which is why so many of the most vocal contributors to the “all is well in Thailand” chorus should be summarily discounted.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ratings-lawsuit/moodys-sp-and-fitch-sued-over-failed-bear-stearns-funds-idUSBRE9AA0QF20131111

The man child is so keen to see anything I have to say be refuted that he follows me around and reads microscopically everything I write, advising everybody to disregard every  word on any subject , too funny but the mortgage expert needs to grow up and get a life!

 

Credit bureau reports and credit ratings represent just another piece of the jigsaw puzzle, it's more data to be considered, a plus in one column to be added to many other pluses or minuses. They are NOT the definitive stand alone answer but sensible people already know that. 

[Airalee]

56 minutes ago, saengd said:

The man child is so keen to see anything I have to say be refuted that he follows me around and reads microscopically everything I write, advising everybody to disregard every  word on any subject , too funny but the mortgage expert needs to grow up and get a life!

 

Credit bureau reports and credit ratings represent just another piece of the jigsaw puzzle, it's more data to be considered, a plus in one column to be added to many other pluses or minuses. They are NOT the definitive stand alone answer but sensible people already know that. 

You seem to be the one who resorts to personal attacks.  First I was an alcoholic, now I’m a man child.  I don’t see that you try to educate people as much as you try to spin things and grasp at straws to promote some sort of agenda.  What that agenda is, I do not know, but your arguments are quite disingenuous.

[swissie]

4 hours ago, swissie said:

So many interesting posts. To break the monotony, I have decided to post the most boring post (hoping to win a price for it):
- 1929 will not be repeated (Helicopter-Money will prevent it).
- Buy low, sell high.
- For every panic-seller, there is a level-headed buyer.
- Leveraged accounts, needing to sell everything, including their kitchen-sinks to cover margin-calls are by now out of the market.
- Asset holders, refusing to sell their "kitchen-sink" at a 50% discount, refusing to do so.

The bottom is near.

Warning! To sell now, (instead of nibbling at the Smorgasboard of opportunities, your sons and daughters will never foregive you.)
As promised, I just delivered the most boring post within this thread.

Must add: During mild "insecurities" concering financial "disturbancies", everyone buys the Swiss-Franc. But once the world realises, that the Swiss-Franc can not replace the US$ as a the "last reseve currency", therefore people start to buy the US$ back again when it comes to the "nitty-gritty".
The US $ gaining aginst the CHF impressively recently means that after all, the US $ is still the Sun, and every other currency is just some planets circeling around the US $. (the Sun).
- Once the US$ stops being the center of the financial world, what would be the next financial "Sun" where every other "currency-planet" revolves around it? Gold, Silver, Bitcoin?
Toilet Paper? No, can't be, we are out of it already.
Cheers.

[Logosone]

7 hours ago, URMySunshine said:

There's gallows humour there but that is pretty much a government monopoly. Undertaker's though....

The largest pension fund in the UK has been investing in Crematoria for years. They will now reap the benefits.

 

https://www.westerleighgroup.co.uk/

 

 

Edited March 20, 2020 by Logosone

[saengd]

4 hours ago, Airalee said:

You seem to be the one who resorts to personal attacks.  First I was an alcoholic, now I’m a man child.  I don’t see that you try to educate people as much as you try to spin things and grasp at straws to promote some sort of agenda.  What that agenda is, I do not know, but your arguments are quite disingenuous.

Dude, I want to pass along my knowledge and observations regarding Thai economics and in the process of doing so I will also learn. I want to do that without being followed around by you everywhere I go and without having thread participants being told by you to ignore my remarks or by you telling everyone you think I have an agenda. If you or anyone else ever has a sustainable intelligent challenge to any of the material or opinions I post I will be happy to engage in constructive debate, anything less than those things will be ignored, as will you, anything along the lines of stalking will be reported. You took issue over something I wrote regarding a Thai mortgage amount and you said it was impossible, "calculators don't lie". Other posters supported what I said with personal case histories, get over it and move on, go find somebody else to hound and annoy.

[saengd]

If there's any Brits out there looking for investments and they've got THB in Thailand, buying UK Pounds is not a far fetched idea if you can get the timing right. 

 

I've done that on a couple of occasions and it can work out well, I hold Pounds Baht in varying ratio's and I'm beginning to think that buying back Pounds if we can see 35 or below, might be smart. That's not because I believe the Baht is going to weaken, it's because I think the Pound is becoming unnaturally weak and sub $1.15 is not sustainable.

[Brunolem]

9 hours ago, swissie said:

 

The bottom is near.

 

Stocks are still valued at over 100% of GDP and have only gone back to their level of 2017!

 

The bottom is very very far from near...

 

Yet some individual stocks, having already lost more than 80% of their former price, may be close to the bottom because there is not much left to lose...but would you invest in airline or cruise business now, or in Deutsche Bank?

 

[saengd]

1 minute ago, Brunolem said:

Stocks are still valued at over 100% of GDP and have only gone back to their level of 2017!

 

The bottom is very very far from near...

 

Yet some individual stocks, having already lost more than 80% of their former price, may be close to the bottom because there is not much left to lose...but would you invest in airline or cruise business now, or in Deutsche Bank?

 

Bruno, you're a doom and gloom merchant, a worst case scenario man, I just don't think this is going to pan out anything like the Armageddon you think, chill out a bit.

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

Bruno, you're a doom and gloom merchant, a worst case scenario man, I just don't think this is going to pan out anything like the Armageddon you think, chill out a bit.

This is your opinion and you are perfectly entitled to it.

 

Now why don't you bring up some facts supporting this opinion, and contradicting mine?

 

I am a numbers person, as cold blooded as a computer, contrary to what my writings may suggest.

 

Along with a number of others, I have seen this economic crisis coming for many years (the virus is only the catalyst...without it, it would have been something else), and it is unfolding right as it should.

 

Hope or despair, and chilling out, won't change anything to it...in the end, numbers always win...and gravity reasserts itself...

 

 

 

 

 

[saengd]

4 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

This is your opinion and you are perfectly entitled to it.

 

Now why don't you bring up some facts supporting this opinion, and contradicting mine?

 

I am a numbers person, as cold blooded as a computer, contrary to what my writings may suggest.

 

Along with a number of others, I have seen this economic crisis coming for many years (the virus is only the catalyst...without it, it would have been something else), and it is unfolding right as it should.

 

Hope or despair, and chilling out, won't change anything to it...in the end, numbers always win...and gravity reasserts itself...

 

 

 

 

 

Well actually that's my problem, you have presented zero facts to support your rhetoric, for example, you wrote:

 

"Stocks are still valued at over 100% of GDP and have only gone back to their level of 2017!

The bottom is very very far from near..."

 

Many countries in the world have borrowings that are greater than their GDP, is there a rule that says this cannot be so and why should stocks values be any different. Bretton Woods did away with the gold standard, since then economies play by different rules.

 

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

Stocks are still valued at over 100% of GDP and have only gone back to their level of 2017!

 

The bottom is very very far from near...

 

Yet some individual stocks, having already lost more than 80% of their former price, may be close to the bottom because there is not much left to lose...but would you invest in airline or cruise business now, or in Deutsche Bank?

 

 

You're absolutely right.

 

The bottom is far from near. Buying the pound now for a long term hold would be the most idiotic thing you could do.  

 

We are still in the midst of the medical crisis. The economic crisis has not even started yet.

 

The massive layoffs, reduced tax income and massive increase in government spending, as they scramble to pay the unemployed and save big companies will lead to stagflation.

 

And you are absolutely right that massive debt, both corporate, private and government will make matters worse and are a real problem.

[saengd]

To be clear, I earlier suggested that expat Brits in Thailand may wish to sell THB and buy the Pound, that was because GBP/USD at 1.14 is not sustainable. So waiting for GBP/THB to hit 35 before buying and then later reversing the trade later could be profitable, I've done that a few times over the years and sometimes it pays off really well. I am not suggesting a long term or indefinite hold of GBP, unless you intend to live in the UK.

Edited March 20, 2020 by saengd

[Logosone]

The Pound/USD has been at considerably lower than 1.14 before.

 

It was at 1.08 in the 80s.

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart

 

The market has a memory. I would not be comfortable to go long on the pound yet. A retest of the 1.10 at least seems likely, so I don't think the bottom has been reached. Of course no decline ever goes in a straight line, and you may see upward corrections. One could trade those, but why go against the trend, which is an obvious downtrend, when the bottom is not in sight, not clear and unknown?

 

Back in 1985 the Pound fell so much because the Dollar was strong, but now things are much worse for the pound, which is facing long term problems that don't even begin to compare to 1985. Serious problems, massive debt being one of the main issues, at a time when spending is needed to support workers and failing systemic companies, no-deal Brexit etc.

 

So even if an upward correction of the Pound were to happen, in the long term stagflation will happen, and it will be a different time. What worked in the past may not work now.

 

 

[saengd]

Each to their own. I don't care too much about USD at 1.14 but I do think GBP/.THB at 35 would be very interesting and could be profitable. But it's only a safe bet if you need and spend both currencies and since I have homes, cash holdings and spend time in both countries each year, it fits well.