This is a screaming buy...what funds/shares are you buying?

[RAZZELL]

William Hill is another that has tanked in the UK.

 

RAZZ

[HaoleBoy]

I'm still waiting for lower drops, but watching / analyzing a few stocks.

Visa (V) I've always liked the business model.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) has been a great stock for 10 yrs.  Wait for  a low enough dip and buy.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) ... Buffet's got 128 Billion cash on this fund.  If it hits 158 / share it's a buy.

Alibaba (BABA) should bounce back good.

Netflix (NFLX) always does well in a recession when people stay home.  Should do real well in a quarantine period.  Waiting for a drop to 260 or so ...

 

[moontang]

General Mills hit a 52 week high yesterday..my only one that weathered the storm..so far. Everything I did to diversify and limit my exposure, except cash, has backfired, including preferreds, REITs, ETFs, and bond funds..

[BillStrangeOgre]

Yesterday my take on this fast evolving situation was that we were nearing the bottom of the sell off and that by the summer the health crisis would be improving.

Looking at the news and analysis this morning i've changed my mind...in my view the markets have a lot further to fall and due to government policy of 'flattening the curve' the Coronavirus is going to be around for a lot longer.

The consequences for economies around the world are becoming critical, this soon could turn into a financial crisis as well...☹️

[Tagged]

On 3/18/2020 at 12:53 PM, Logosone said:

I'm buying British Airways, BP, TUI, Shell and of course Rolls Royce who make airline engines.

 

These companies will have a great future...

Just looking at Emirates, and Im sure they will maintain the brand og and make sure they come strong back. 

[JerseytoBKK]

Accidentally posted this is a different topic, but it belongs here:

 

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6142694474001/

 

Interesting interview with the CEO of FedEx. Has 700 employees in Wuhan. Predicts V shaped recovery.

 

Bought large amount of Exxon twice this past week, way more than prudent, but couldn't resist the bargain. Obviously a little ahead of the curve but current average cost is $37.7, yielding 9.2% while I wait for Russia & Saudis to play nice or Iran to lob a couple more missiles into the Saudi oil fields.

 

If oil stays below $20 and Exxon cuts div first time after 37 years of consecutive increases, then I'll be OK with a 50% div reduction while waiting patiently for the rebound.

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, jojothai said:

History suggests the markets are likely to go a lot lower, so dont be fooled by the rallies. This is not a normal situation, its likely to be U shaped not V shaped.

IMHO from previous we should have a sharp rally of about 1/3 of the fall , then go back down or a bit lower. 

If we do not rally you can expect much lower.

Markets do not normally go down in straight lines. Look at 2008-2009 as what could happen.

Stronger rally in perhaps 2 months after the " sell in may" subsides.

But from history, be prepared for the worst afterwards.

As regards what stocks to buy, most well regarded forecasters have been promoting precious metals especially gold for the last year. US goes to negative interest rates, everybody throws massive amounts of money at the problem. Thats the recipe for gold to rise. Current selling for liquidity is perhaps a great buying opportunity.

Individual stocks?  Be careful, the concepts of some types of stock may well change. 

Look for technological / biomedical advances that are likely to be more in demand on the basis of what is happening.

Likely the best are the providers of services on the internet, as everybody in lock down uses them more.

Rethink your approach.

As mentioned by rwill, Zoom (ZM)in the US is one of the best performers - video conferencing.

Its actually risen in the turmoil.

China appears to be over the worse.

JD.com has held up well.

Alibaba perhaps, or Tencent has held up well.

Look at Amazon , it went up initially but fell 20%. It rose yesterday wednesday 18th.

Personally i have to do more research also on which thai stocks offer best prospects. I pulled out from the local market last year when we started to go into a bear market well before the virus.

The local market has been hammered. There are some very tempting high yields available.

Hope this helps,

Enough for now.

To put it shorter, just think about Japan 30 years ago.

 

This could be the best case scenario for US stocks... and bonds... 

 

For the worst case, you'd have to go back 90 years... 

 

[Logosone]

4 hours ago, RAZZELL said:

Ok brains...what do you suggest? ????

 

(your previous post said "I'm buying British Airways, BP, TUI, Shell and of course Rolls Royce who make airline engines.

 

These companies will have a great future..."

 

Like all the other sheeple ETF's?

 

All the above have risks. Didn't say they didn't.

 

We can re-visit in 3 years and see eh? ????

 

RAZZ

 

Obviously that was a joke. Who in their right mind would buy British Airways Rolls Royce, TUI, BP or Shell, basically anything to do with airlines?

 

Flybe in the UK just went bankrupt. What do you think two years of enforced non-travel will do for airlines?

 

Of course I was joking. I would not buy anything to do with airlines, TUI, Rolls Royce, nor Carluccio's or Cineworld.

 

Crematoria is the best investment you can make right now. Invest in Crematoria giants.

[Logosone]

4 hours ago, Time Traveller said:

hahahaha....yeah real great future when all of the airlines are bankrupt. 

 

Some people can appreciate irony.

 

Others can't.

 

Smh.

Edited March 19, 2020 by Logosone

[RAZZELL]

48 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Obviously that was a joke. Who in their right mind would buy British Airways Rolls Royce, TUI, BP or Shell, basically anything to do with airlines?

 

Flybe in the UK just went bankrupt. What do you think two years of enforced non-travel will do for airlines?

 

Of course I was joking. I would not buy anything to do with airlines, TUI, Rolls Royce, nor Carluccio's or Cineworld.

 

Crematoria is the best investment you can make right now. Invest in Crematoria giants.

 

People who can see an upside?

 

Two year flight ban? Have you gone nuts?

 

This won't go on forever...

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3075224/coronavirus-parks-and-tourist-attractions-reopen-china-tries-get?fbclid=IwAR0Zdu2qr9NzBDBHyWZUtmv_LJ_Wk7jHDZVjochSpfCd9ssynYT2VlUdEJk

 

 

[drguid]

I fled China (via Thailand) and now I'm back in the UK. People in the UK are gradually getting the message but my sister (a teacher) is still thinking... hmm I could go and private tutor these kids...

 

They still do not get it.

 

Anyway, I have increased my cash and food stocks and now I'm buying Personal Assets Trust (PNL). It holds treasuries, gold and all the 'last man standing' stocks. I am looking at silver and palladium but there is still more deleveraging to come.

 

I still hold a tonne of THB notes from when I fled China which I guess is marginally safer than GBP.

 

Personally I think GBP is now in serious trouble as helicopter money will be the only way to keep "but I have to go to work" people happy.

 

It is way too early to buy stocks given that markets suggest there's a 33% chance of Boeing going bust!

Edited March 19, 2020 by drguid

[AussieBob18]

Wait another 2 weeks. Then it will be a 'dead cat' bounce, with slow recovery - or a cat up a tree.

 

 

[Brunolem]

2 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Wait another 2 weeks. Then it will be a 'dead cat' bounce, with slow recovery - or a cat up a tree.

 

 

Do you mean another 2 years?

[sirineou]

My portfolio lost 21% in value in the past few days, earlier today, I got out of the market and I am parked .

2007-2008 I Lost almost everything,took me this long to get back where I was. I am now almost 63 years old, I dont have the time or the energy to recover again.

When things start improving I might jump back in. Right now I am in maintenance mode. 

[AussieBob18]

5 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Do you mean another 2 years?

USA has started a 15 day plan - if it fails to slow the spread = dead cat - if it slows the spread = cat up a tree 

 

[farangkinok]

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS/B) at 27 year low $19.58 with $0.96 quarterly dividend (19.20%) hasn't missed a dividend in at least 30 yrs, and XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) $23.98 with annual dividend $2.24387 (9.36%) 

[Brunolem]

33 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

USA has started a 15 day plan - if it fails to slow the spread = dead cat - if it slows the spread = cat up a tree 

 

They call it dead bat bounce these days.

 

There will be a number of those on the way down...reaching a bottom takes time and goes through many detours...

 

No plan will change anything in the short term...the purge needs to happen and go all the way.

[sirineou]

22 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

USA has started a 15 day plan - if it fails to slow the spread = dead cat - if it slows the spread = cat up a tree 

 

IMO We need to be in total lockdown for at least a month . And suspend trading. 

[bkk6060]

This is turning out to be one of the biggest buying opportunities ever.

I bet the US market is up 50% from its current by Jan 1.

Close to 29,000 Dow.

Don't care what people think. But, I will certainly mark this post for future reference and discussion.

Good luck to all traders and investors.  

 

[Logosone]

3 hours ago, RAZZELL said:

 

People who can see an upside?

 

Two year flight ban? Have you gone nuts?

 

This won't go on forever...

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3075224/coronavirus-parks-and-tourist-attractions-reopen-china-tries-get?fbclid=IwAR0Zdu2qr9NzBDBHyWZUtmv_LJ_Wk7jHDZVjochSpfCd9ssynYT2VlUdEJk

 

 

 

I hope you're right, Razzell. I hope you're right.

 

The German government has said it could take two years for this virus to pass, UK scientists are also talking long term.

 

Of course that may all be wrong, as soon as a vaccine is found things could return to normal. Except they won't. After the medical crisis we will have the economic crisis.

 

Prepare for the bank-run when people are desperate for liquidity they have a habit of not trusting banks with their cash. When that starts banks could fail.

 

But like you, I'm an optimist and we will still have strong companies and banks that exist. But the real economic tough times are still ahead. Stagflation is around the corner.

[Omnipotent]

34 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

I hope you're right, Razzell. I hope you're right.

 

The German government has said it could take two years for this virus to pass, UK scientists are also talking long term.

 

Of course that may all be wrong, as soon as a vaccine is found things could return to normal. Except they won't. After the medical crisis we will have the economic crisis.

 

Prepare for the bank-run when people are desperate for liquidity they have a habit of not trusting banks with their cash. When that starts banks could fail.

 

But like you, I'm an optimist and we will still have strong companies and banks that exist. But the real economic tough times are still ahead. Stagflation is around the corner.

I know I for one have plans to liquidate all my Thai bank accounts tomorrow,Just keeping bare minimum.Its partially to do with seemingly negative comments from government officials on foreigners in Thailand and also to do with feeling the Thai baht bubble is going to burst.

[Logosone]

Isn't that a bit drastic for now? Yes, some thai officials have voiced anti-foreigner sentiment, but I doubt they'd freeze farang bank accounts only.

 

The real danger would be if they freeze everyone's bank accounts. That would only happen if there is an extreme run on banks. If people fear the system will collapse. No sign of that yet.

[saengd]

26 minutes ago, Omnipotent said:

I know I for one have plans to liquidate all my Thai bank accounts tomorrow,Just keeping bare minimum.Its partially to do with seemingly negative comments from government officials on foreigners in Thailand and also to do with feeling the Thai baht bubble is going to burst.

Forgive me for saying but that's a huge over reaction, you appear to not understand the way the country operates nor its currency.

[allanos]

On 3/18/2020 at 7:45 AM, BillStrangeOgre said:

True dat! ????

Still, i'm interesting what people are buying or following for the upturn when it happens?

Cheers

Best advice I can share is to take a look at the Crash of '08.  The circumstances were different, of course, but stocks, gold, etc are following the same path now, and, in all probability, the recovery period will follow a similar pattern.  My own belief is that the markets still have a way to go yet, to the downside.

 

BTC was not around then, so there is no history, so-to-speak.  However it, and some of the other cryptos, have dropped by around 50% in recent days.  Well worth a punt, in my opinion.

[Omnipotent]

5 minutes ago, saengd said:

Forgive me for saying but that's a huge over reaction, you appear to not understand the way the country operates nor its currency.

I understand that the country has an over inflated Baht which has ruined exports and I feel it’s only held up on the word of people in “High” government positions.It doesn’t hurt me one bit to liquidate , but if it is a failing system it could hurt me a lot through failure.

[saengd]

8 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Isn't that a bit drastic for now? Yes, some thai officials have voiced anti-foreigner sentiment, but I doubt they'd freeze farang bank accounts only.

 

The real danger would be if they freeze everyone's bank accounts. That would only happen if there is an extreme run on banks. If people fear the system will collapse. No sign of that yet.

Thai banks are better capitalized than their Western counterparts. Tier II capital adequacy ratio's are required to be at least 2%, Thai banks are funded to 9% minimum.

[saengd]

Just now, Omnipotent said:

I understand that the country has an over inflated Baht which has ruined exports and I feel it’s only held up on the word of people in “High” government positions.It doesn’t hurt me one bit to liquidate , but if it is a failing system it could hurt me a lot through failure.

THB was about 4% over valued, today it is fair value, its forecast by all and any measures is that it will strengthen against USD to 25  within five to seven years.

 

The value of THB has played a role in reducing the volume of exports but only in the context of the trade war between the US and China and an embargo by the EU because of fisheries employment laws, it is inaccurate to suggest the value of THB has ruined exports. Thai exports reached a high of USD 22.5 Bill. in July 2020, in January they dropped to USD 19 billion, a level last seen in 2016 and an increase of 3.25% over the previous month, January is the latest official set of trade figures. The rate of growth of Thai exports rose at at a rapid pace between 2015 and 2020, a pace that most economists and observers knew was not sustainable, it's fall to USD 19 bill. was not a surprise to anyone apart from those who merely looked at two sets of comparative numbers.

[allanos]

How are 401k's weathering the storm?  What happens to their value in a massive stock market fall-out such as we are experiencing now?  Are they secure investments? Are past profits locked in?  For those of you in the know, I would welcome some enlightenment.

[Omnipotent]

10 minutes ago, saengd said:

THB was about 4% over valued, today it is fair value, its forecast by all and any measures is that it will strengthen against USD to 25  within five to seven years.

 

The value of THB has played a role in reducing the volume of exports but only in the context of the trade war between the US and China and an embargo by the EU because of fisheries employment laws, it is inaccurate to suggest the value of THB has ruined exports. Thai exports reached a high of USD 22.5 Bill. in July 2020, in January they dropped to USD 19 billion, a level last seen in 2016 and an increase of 3.25% over the previous month, January is the latest official set of trade figures. The rate of growth of Thai exports rose at at a rapid pace between 2015 and 2020, a pace that most economists and observers knew was not sustainable, it's fall to USD 19 bill. was not a surprise to anyone apart from those who merely looked at two sets of comparative numbers.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Thai Baht strengthens to the US dollar a lot quicker than that the way the US  are printing money right now.But as it’s my gut feeling I will go my own way , where I feel I can limit damage and possibly make gains no matter what the outcome is.

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

Thai banks are better capitalized than their Western counterparts. Tier II capital adequacy ratio's are required to be at least 2%, Thai banks are funded to 9% minimum.

 

With due respect, Deutsche Bank has 14.15% but is still hanging by a thread.

 

https://annualreport.deutsche-bank.com/2017/ar/risk-report/risk-and-capital-performance/capital-and-leverage-ratio/minimum-capital-requirements.html

 

And in Thailand history shows Thai banks have not been immune to failures.

 

"Although the scale of money involved in the Bangkok Bank of Commerce is unprecedented by Thai standards, bank collapses are nothing new in this fast developing South-east Asian nation.

The first incident was in 1984 when the Asia Trust Bank Co., owned by the Sino-Thai Tarnvanichkul family, collapsed due to excessive lending of funds to people close to the management. After Asia Trust chairman Wallop Tarnvanichkul fled to Hong Kong to escape prosecution, the bank was taken over by the government and subsequently merged with the state-owned Krung Tahi Bank.

The second case occurred in 1986 when the First Bangkok City Bank Co., faced bankruptcy due to its funds being used for speculation in Hong Kong’s foreign currency market.

Also during the past decade, disputes and scandals have broken out in several other small and medium-sized family run banks including the Siam City Bank, Union Bank of Bangkok and Laemthong Bank that have rocked the Thai financial system.

According to a report prepared by Moodys — the U.S. based credit rating agency — the transparency of financial statements issued by Thai Banks is “generally poor”."

 

http://www.ipsnews.net/1996/07/thailand-finance-banking-scandal-erodes-public-confidence/

 

If Deutsche Bank can fail, I have no doubt Thai Banks could fail.

 

But again, there is absolutely no sign of that now, whatsoever, so I'm actually opening a Thai bank account.

Edited March 19, 2020 by Logosone