It's estimated 40% of the UK's population have underlying health problems.

 

If we carried on as normal we'd see a bigger loss of life in Western countries than in WW2.

 

BoJo is starting to get it. Save the people first, then the economy.

2 hours ago, Senior Player said:

Learn to read and process information properly before reeling off a response,. It'll help you in the upcoming months.

Drama lama

1 hour ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

you're right the current estimate is at least 18 months

 

spanish flu rolled on for 3 years but with a credible vaccine they could half it

 

“Estimate” is the key word. 

4 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Mamma Cup !

Ma ma noodles

4 hours ago, Tapster said:

Still, Thailand is doing better than some First World countries (I'm talking about you, United Kingdom!).

i very  much doubt  that,  lack of freely available testing here and the nice  opportunity to pay  if  you dont have it and the tests  come  back negative.............. just ask Myanmar almost no cases is  it? no testing = no cases

Don't worry, it will be gone soon. They are out at night with the fire hoses to wash it off the streets. That nasty Covid hiding in the streets and jumping on passers by. ????

4 hours ago, Chazar said:

look  on the bright side, soon infections  will equal road deaths daily, out  driving today witnessed the two Thai behind me both with masks  on while  driving, both with no seatbelts

Sorry, can black cat that with motorcyclists, no helmets but wearing face masks.

Places that will be stripped are the likes of Tesco/Makro/Big C but I doubt the the big mall supermarkets will be as they are so expensive for your average Somchai brainwashed type.

 

As for new cases of the virus, then now that the world is in chaos then the authorities here will be happier to release some more increases in infections. I think the powers that be have been telling porkies but this idea that the virus likes cooler climates could also be true to some extent if not completely. It is still happening here but not on the scale it has in less humid and cool places ...so I think a mix of the two would be reasonable to explain the situation here. However, we'll see in the next 3 weeks.

Breaking news, my ass...

 

Until now only a few hunderd covid cases here in Thailand. What a bummer for all the cynical clowns here who are still waiting for a real covid disaster so they can trash Thailand.

36 minutes ago, dogfish180 said:

Don't worry, it will be gone soon. They are out at night with the fire hoses to wash it off the streets. That nasty Covid hiding in the streets and jumping on passers by. ????

Yeah. Can someone explain the logic of this? I know the streets are dirty and it's great that they're being cleaned. But, have the road surfaces been discussed as a vector for infections at all during all of this?

Close the borders and the flights for 14 days and hunker down ....

5 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

43 cases of community spread

 

come on, man up, stage 3 is here

 

 

Community spread is defined in the USA as cases that did not travel and had no contact with previously infected people.  Basically people who got sick and did not know how and where they got the virus.  The 43 mentioned were in contact with sick people.  

5 hours ago, Chazar said:

they  will BUT  they have one very big advantage to  help them, vegetables and fruit  abound  here, seeds  to veg in literally a  matter of  days sometimes, youmcan grow almost anything very fast,  no one should  starve

Oh yes, because in urban Bangkok there is alot of fertile land to feed 10 million.

Pattaya and Chiang Mai too.

And if we go to movement restrictions, somchai won't be able to bring his papyaya to town to sell at an inflated price.

49 minutes ago, Chazar said:

i very  much doubt  that,  lack of freely available testing here and the nice  opportunity to pay  if  you dont have it and the tests  come  back negative.............. just ask Myanmar almost no cases is  it? no testing = no cases

Lack of freely available testing in the USA as well.... Different story, if you play sports and/ or have money. 

5 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Should have done many things a long time ago. 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

 

But hey man up, just a flu bro, raaaaaaaaaaah real men go lick mosque gates, tarzan bundolo, maibpenrai.

But is that source qualified to make these statements?  He seems to be a blogger without a medical/ public health background.

If he were right, Europe (especially Italy) would already see a decline in new cases (as Italy implemented Social Distancing more than 7 days ago)   - but Italy is not

4 minutes ago, aBigSmile said:

Whats' the big deal?

 

Let the disease run its course. 3% would die, that is the old smelly farts, making some room for others. The other 97% would develop natural immunity. 

 

 

  Keep telling yourself that it's only older people who need to worry:

 

"But of the 508 patients known to have been hospitalized, 38 percent were notably younger — between 20 and 54. And nearly half of the 121 patients who were admitted to intensive care units were adults under 65, the C.D.C. reported."

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/younger-adults-comprise-big-portion-of-coronavirus-hospitalizations-in-us/ar-BB11nGEB?li=BBnb7Kz

  

14 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

But is that source qualified to make these statements?  He seems to be a blogger without a medical/ public health background.

If he were right, Europe (especially Italy) would already see a decline in new cases (as Italy implemented Social Distancing more than 7 days ago)   - but Italy is not

He's a data scientist. He is not making any statements, but presenting data in visual form. That data in the graph comes from a mathematical model. Feel free to contact him and discuss the validity of that model, if you have doubts.

 

Regarding the delay, it's due to delays between infections and diagnosis and is about two weeks, this is what was learned from Hubei:

 

 

I know people have the need for a leader, an Oracle of the old that knows all, but there's a reason the virus had the "Novel" in it. Means it's new and nobody has the knowledge yet. All we can do is take what is available and analyze it. What you do with analysis is up to you. It can be converted into pre-emptive action if done carefully. Pays to be a step ahead.

Add another 4 from my wife's district in Sisaket. Spectators at a cock fight, so probably a bunch more coming positive soon. Clearly many are not taking precautions.  I observed people still dipping their spoons in each other's soup bowl last night and came across 6 young women on Hua Hin beach today sitting in a tight circle with food on a blanket in the centre,  again all eating directly from the same dish. Big <deleted> storm coming. 

I am amazed how they can determine the numbers that were infected at a certain place when in Europe it takes days to find out the same answer

As more people are tested, more will be diagnosed. This is nothing to panic about.

Bottom lines is that no one knows how many people have COVID19 or the WuhanV.  

Because not everyone has been tested and many, many folks will fall into one of two categories:

1. Mild flu like symptoms that will go away in a few days.

2. Asymptomatic 

Both will develop immunities and will never be affected personally by the virus.

Now, these folks could infect others.

I've read that 80% of those infected will never show symptoms. 

We will never know exact ratios of infected to deaths or even infected to sick because of the above.

6 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Ok somebody started testing in larger quantities. Good. But still:

 

 

2606 pending. Low new PUI is probably because of their admission criteria, which is also why we're not seeing stage 3, they are not counting as PUI those without recent travel, contact to tourists, etc unless they already have heavy symptoms: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_CPG_en.pdf

 

 

Starting to look blindingly clear the virus is making rounds in general population. Prepare for stage 3, mandatory quarantines.

Gotta be dead on the road to count as a road death
Gotta be infected with Covid to count as a pneumonia case.

Same bunch of government chaps moving the same sort of goalposts around. 
"Face" is everything in Thailand - even when you're coughing your lungs up through it.

Edited March 19, 20206 yr by robsamui

14 hours ago, Tapster said:

Yup, Stage 3 is probably here.

Still, Thailand is doing better than some First World countries (I'm talking about you, United Kingdom!).

 

We're self-quarantining, because my wife was critically ill with pneumonia two years ago. She's at high risk.

Makro in Rawai, Phuket wasn't going crazy two days ago. Hopefully, Buddhist Thai's won't panic like stupid, spineless westerners.

Go well!!

 

<deleted> has being Buddhist got to do with it

Edited March 19, 20206 yr by metisdead
Profane acronym removed.

The fact that all the confirmed cases have to be hospitalised suggests that only patients with severe symptoms are being tested. With 400 odd confirmed cases there ought to be another 3,000 or so mild cases not requiring hospitalisation but needing isolation. I wonder where they all are.

 

Reading between the lines there must be 10,000 plus cases by now spread through all the provinces and villages as well as cities.  By the government's own Emergency Operations Department estimates 400,000 will become infected in best case scenario, 10 million in the base case scenario and 37 million in the worst case scenario.  Given that they have done virtually nothing to prevent the spread or test for it the best case scenario which assumed dropping onward transmissions down to 1.6 per case is no longer possible and the base case is now looking challenging. The government should prepare for something between the base case and the worst case, assuming they eventually start to take some effective measures to avert the worst case.  Then they should prepare for around 20 million infections. Assuming some 15% will need hospital treatment, they need to prepare beds, ICUs, ventilators and medicine for 3 million hospital patients up until the end of 2021, extrapolating from their own estimates.  Assuming a mortality rate of 8%, the same as Italy, temples need to be ready for 1.6 million funerals, or 2.4% of the population. 

Edited March 19, 20206 yr by Dogmatix

9 hours ago, mixed said:

The infections from the boxing stadium have been previously reported as Lumpini, this story says Rajadamnern. Accuracy is important in these times.

Thailand... Accuracy ????

4 hours ago, aBigSmile said:

Whats' the big deal?

 

Let the disease run its course. 3% would die, that is the old smelly farts, making some room for others. The other 97% would develop natural immunity. 

 

As for clogging the healthcare system, just don't treat anyone over the age of 70. End of story. 

How's your Mum and Dad? ???? aBS!

1 hour ago, Dogmatix said:

The fact that all the confirmed cases have to be hospitalised suggests that only patients with severe symptoms are being tested. With 400 odd confirmed cases there ought to be another 3,000 or so mild cases not requiring hospitalisation but needing isolation. I wonder where they all are.

 

Reading between the lines there must be 10,000 plus cases by now spread through all the provinces and villages as well as cities.  By the government's own Emergency Operations Department estimates 400,000 will become infected in best case scenario, 10 million in the base case scenario and 37 million in the worst case scenario.  Given that they have done virtually nothing to prevent the spread or test for it the best case scenario which assumed dropping onward transmissions down to 1.6 per case is no longer possible and the base case is now looking challenging. The government should prepare for something between the base case and the worst case, assuming they eventually start to take some effective measures to avert the worst case.  Then they should prepare for around 20 million infections. Assuming some 15% will need hospital treatment, they need to prepare beds, ICUs, ventilators and medicine for 3 million hospital patients up until the end of 2021, extrapolating from their own estimates.  Assuming a mortality rate of 8%, the same as Italy, temples need to be ready for 1.6 million funerals, or 2.4% of the population. 

Not immediately disagreeing with your math, but not sure about the leap up to 37M......?

8 hours ago, Senior Player said:

You know nothing. You're not a medical expert. Thailand did nothing to halt the spread as it continued to keep its borders open and unchecked to China for the past four months. I'd rather give credit to Laos and Vietnam for closing their borders the moment they became aware of this serious situation. If you'd been paying any attention at all since this story first leaked from China, you'd know that it has been circulating in China as far back as late November, and that means outside as well. 

 

You're one of those people that seems to takes great delight at wagging his finger at other countries for not doing enough, without wanting to look closer to home as to why this was allowed to spread globally. If you're actually living (or staying) in Thailand then you know that the Thai government was saying that it wouldn't spread in their country due to their hot climate and strong winds. Basically, they buried their heads in the sand, worried that their economy would suffer due to a lack of tourism, nor did they want to offend their Chinese tourists that were bringing in lots of holiday cash. Meanwhile, plenty of tourists from China have been intermingling with tourists from across the globe in that giant petri dish you call Thailand since December, right up to only a few days ago when Thailand finally stopped its flight to and from China. Think about that for a minute. 

 

No country can do enough now because the virus wasn't contained within China. On January 29, when Italy detected and isolated its first coronavirus cases – from two Chinese tourists – authorities were sure they had put together the safest protection system in Europe. The following day, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte immediately declared a state of emergency for six months, and made Italy the first country to block flights from China. Scientists believe that the virus had been circulating unnoticed in the country from at least mid-January – thriving because so many of the infected had no symptoms at all, or only mild symptoms like a cough and a mild temperature. This is consistent with recent research suggesting that the virus can be spread by people who do not yet show any symptoms.

 

Look, I could post lots of info on the "whys" and "how" it spread so easily. Yeah, I'm looking at you WHO and China, but it's not going to alter the here and now. Some of you are of the mindset that this is only a little blip, an unnecessary inconvenience that only requires a simple lockdown lasting only for a few weeks or months and this will all go away. Clearly you haven't understood the scientific models that have come out of the Imperial College London the past few days where the numbers and available data were crunched and the best and worse case scenarios have all been calculated. It doesn't make pretty reading, grim would be a better word. The upshot is you're going to have to be in continually lockdown until a vaccine has been developed and rolled out worldwide, otherwise as soon as you lift a temporary lockdown, the virus will start-up again and each country will be back to square one with thousands of more deaths. That means every country will have to lock its borders and cities for the unforeseeable future and not just for a few weeks or months. A year minimum would probably be a more accurate figure, unless this virus burns itself out naturally and death rates fall by their own accord. Trouble is this is a novel virus, so nobody knows the real longevity or outcome as of yet. 

 

Put it this way, I'd rather be in the UK now, who at least have expert virologist advisors to their government than in Thailand where ignorance is bliss. Each country is going to have to handle things differently due to the size of its population, healthcare system and economy. The EU is in turmoil right now as they have no system put in place for locked borders, so supplies are not getting through across its Schengen Area Member States but snarling up at their borders instead. Nothing is clear-cut or straight forward as you paint it.

 

Anyway, I'm done with the "orange man bad" idiots here and armchair critics that don't understand what's really happening around them. Good luck, my fellow farrangs living in LOS, you're going to need it. May your god, or whatever belief system you have, be with you. 

 

With any luck, I'll be back in LOS in 18 months when this is all hopefully over and the world opens its borders again.

We're not going in lockdown until we have a vaccine. How and where did you get that idea? 

On very short notice we will get Antibody test rolling out that will be able to determine in a quick way who has been infected already and who hasn't. The infected (and cured) will play an important role in herd immunity. I think the lockdowns will be around 30 days to flatten the peak. Anything longer than this is financially impossible aswell. 

16 minutes ago, Traubert said:

You're going to look quite silly when the truth comes out.

He has quite a stuck record there. Hopefully his OCD will be useful when it comes to hand washing. They should call it the Burmese Virus in Thailand for xenophobic consistency. 

 

Can you believe this photo is actually on the PM's official Facebook feed ? Because it actually is....the translated comments below it are also a scream. Note the no photo sign as well !

 

Edited March 19, 20206 yr by URMySunshine

12 hours ago, samtam said:

It is difficult not to be drawn into the hysteria,

im down to the last 48100 toilet  rolls  now