Asinine and unfair closings

[Logosone]

9 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Isolation is the only sure way to slow down the growth in cases.

I don't think so. 

 

First of all there is no real 'isolation'. Nowhere. Not in any country. Moreover there could not be. Even if people listen to the UK government and don't go to pubs they will have to go to supermarkets. Many have to go to work. Many have to take public transport. Even if Germany closes its borders they wave through commuters, truck drivers etc., even if Thailand closes massage spas, beauty salons remain open. Even if the UK cancels football matches, people went to Cheltenham, the West End.

 

Even in China, when they tried to isolate Wuhan, 50% of people already left and spread the virus around China and the world.

 

This isolation fantasy is just that, a fantasy.

[richard_smith237]

31 minutes ago, Skeptic7 said:

39 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

There’s no reason to panic. But to ignore the potential would be silly of us all. 

https://reason.com/2020/03/20/if-covid-19-killed-1-4-of-people-with-symptoms-in-wuhan-the-overall-fatality-rate-is-likely-to-be-much-lower-than-people-feared/?itm_source=parsely-api

Agreed, the 'case fatality rate' could be much much lower than originally thought. 

But even if the 'case fatality rate’ is much less if the transmission continues unhindered, in less than 2 months 1 billon people will be infected - then even if the 'case fatality rate’ is 0.1% its still 1 million deaths. 

 

What ever we believe, the case mortality rate to be, the spread of this virus has to be prevented. 

It critical that a vaccine is generated.

 

 

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by richard_smith237

[FolkGuitar]

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

I don't believe, I know for a fact, that I don't have the Covid19 virus so I will keep going out whenever I please. It's called freedom.

 

No... It's called Egocentrism . Listed as a 'Personality Disorder' in the DSM-5  (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders - Fifth Edition.)

 

I hope, for the sake of the people you come in contact with, that you don't have the virus.

Of course, there is absolutely no way that you could know 'for a fact' that you don't have it, and hubris alone won't be enough to keep those others safe.

You are a very selfish person, more concerned with your own pleasures than the safety of those around you. I often think it a shame that Egocentrism hasn't been labeled a crime against society.

[Skeptic7]

11 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Agreed, the 'case fatality rate' could be much much lower than originally thought. 

But even if the 'case fatality rate’ is much less if the transmission continues unhindered, in less than 2 months 1 billon people will be infected - then even if the 'case fatality rate’ is 0.1% its still 1 million deaths. 

 

What ever we believe the case mortality rate to be, the spread of this virus has to be prevented. 

It critical that a vaccine is generated.

 

 

 

Everyone acts like we are IMMORTAL. We are not. We are all dying. 1 million is a sad, yet acceptable number IMO. A treatment and/or vaccine is coming. Shutting down the world and the global economy is unacceptable and will cause more pain and misery in the long run than another million deaths...mostly elderly and already compromised. This may be too stark and callous for most, but that's the reality of it. 

Edited March 21, 2020 by Skeptic7

[Logosone]

9 minutes ago, FolkGuitar said:

 

No... It's called Egocentrism . Listed as a 'Personality Disorder' in the DSM-5  (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders - Fifth Edition.)

 

I hope, for the sake of the people you come in contact with, that you don't have the virus.

Of course, there is absolutely no way that you could know 'for a fact' that you don't have it, and hubris alone won't be enough to keep those others safe.

You are a very selfish person, more concerned with your own pleasures than the safety of those around you. I often think it a shame that Egocentrism hasn't been labeled a crime against society.

If you look up the definition of "Egocentrism' you will find it is "an inability to accurately assume or understand any perspective other than one's own."

 

So that would describe your excessive urge to dictate to others what they should do, despite objective reality.

 

You can relax, I don't have the virus, the women are still alive.

 

 

[richard_smith237]

3 minutes ago, Skeptic7 said:

Everyone acts like we are IMMORTAL. We are not. We are all dying. 1 million is a sad, yet acceptable number IMO. A treatment and/or vaccine is coming. Shutting down the world and the global economy is unacceptable and will cause more pain and misery in the long run than another million deaths...mostly elderly and already compromised. This may be too stark and callous for most, but it's the reality of it. 

 

What numbers are unacceptable to you? 

 

The worlds governments and experts have already decided, pretty much unanimously, that the numbers are too high. 

They didn’t come to the same conclusions with Ebola, SARS, MERS, Swine flu.

[richard_smith237]

35 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I don't think so. 

 

First of all there is no real 'isolation'. Nowhere. Not in any country. Moreover there could not be. Even if people listen to the UK government and don't go to pubs they will have to go to supermarkets. Many have to go to work. Many have to take public transport. Even if Germany closes its borders they wave through commuters, truck drivers etc., even if Thailand closes massage spas, beauty salons remain open. Even if the UK cancels football matches, people went to Cheltenham, the West End.

 

Even in China, when they tried to isolate Wuhan, 50% of people already left and spread the virus around China and the world.

 

This isolation fantasy is just that, a fantasy.

OK - so you seem to be missing the point (deliberately?) on how Social Distancing works, also quarantine, prevention of movement (flights etc) and all other isolation methods that will minimise and slow transmission of the virus.

 

It has already worked in China. 

 

But agreed, there is no 100% isolation, but I think we can all agree to avoid the semantics and recognise that ‘isolation’ in this case means measures to avoid each other on a personal level up to a nationwide and global level.

 

This youtube link outlines how social distancing and other ‘isolation’ methods work.

 

Original Source [Washington post] https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by richard_smith237

[mike787]

Second coming of Christ is coming...be ready for Dantes inferno....it is all over...the apocalypse is finally here....goodbye everyone! 

[CLS]

21 hours ago, greeneking said:

30-60 day suspension of business will be financial ruin for many....

Better financially ruined than dead.

[Skeptic7]

29 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

What numbers are unacceptable to you? 

 

The worlds governments and experts have already decided, pretty much unanimously, that the numbers are too high. 

They didn’t come to the same conclusions with Ebola, SARS, MERS, Swine flu.

My personal acceptable numbers would be unacceptable to most, but are immaterial. The reality is acceptable and perspective necessary. 

 

Total deaths from all the above combined was approx 25,000. Hasn't been a case of SARS in 16 years. It was over-reacted to back then also. 

 

REMEMBER THE MILLIONS KILLED BY EBOLA? SARS? MERS? SWINE FLU? BIRD FLU? 

ME NEITHER.

DON'T PANIC.

 

 

[FolkGuitar]

41 minutes ago, Logosone said:

If you look up the definition of "Egocentrism' you will find it is "an inability to accurately assume or understand any perspective other than one's own."

 

 

You can use your dictionary, and cherry-pick out the sentence you need.

I'll stick with the 'Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders - Fifth Edition.' No need to try to choose a single sentence. They all seem to fit.

It boils down to plain selfishness.  That is about as far removed from real 'freedom' as it gets.

[Logosone]

44 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

It has already worked in China. 

 

But agreed, there is no 100% isolation, but I think we can all agree to avoid the semantics and recognise that ‘isolation’ in this case means measures to avoid each other on a personal level up to a nationwide and global level.

 

This youtube link outlines how social distancing and other ‘isolation’ methods work.

 

Original Source [Washington post] https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

 

How, has it already worked in China? When China put Wuhan into isolation half the population had already left. Other parts of China were still infected.

 

Yes, today it looks like cases in China have stopped increasing, but how can you be sure that this was because cities were cordonned off, where half the population had left already.

 

Maybe there are other reasons why the cases have stopped increasing.

[rumak]

9 hours ago, chuang said:

Need a massage, call for room service i am sure they come....

nah, they're just faking it   

[MrBrad]

Dr. Anthony Fauci heads the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease and is one of the top public health officials in the U.S. He’s helping to lead the national response to the novel coronavirus pandemic. On Thursday, Fauci joined Judy Woodruff to discuss the crisis, including what we have learned from other countries, the status of testing for COVID-19 and how we can slow its spread.

 

[connda]

23 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

I believe it futile to explain to some  the need and direct benefits for social distancing. They will need to find out first hand.  They can then look back (if still alive) and understand that a 30-60 day suspension of business will have been better than the financial ruin that lies ahead for those who only cared about themselves.

The Op has a point.  
Let see:
Going to massage shop, pubs, entertainment venues if "Selfish". Not OK!
Going to the Mall, Big C, or just going shopping is not "Selfish".  OK!

Lord!  If you catch this flu you have a 98% of survival.  And yet those in dire fear and tossing around terms like "selfish" and calling for martial law and forced quarantines all think they are at Death's Door.  

Personally, I'm not afraid of the flu - it's a flu.  I'm much more concerned about Dengue as well as this irrational panic than I am of Covid-19 flu.
"Just wait.  Just wait until you are at Death's Door and look back, you could have..........."  
Stop. Just stop.  Everybody dies.  When your number is up, it time to go.  Not prepared?  Is that what all you folks are so ungodly afraid of?  That you're gonna die from Covid-19?  I think so.  Perhaps you all should work on the quality of your life's as well as getting your live's in order.  That may assuage a lot of your fear.  Then you can kick back and take life as it comes.  The future is uncertain.  Use the uncertainty to reflect on your life.  And then accept it.  Life is uncertain!
"Oh, but Covid-19 is gonna get me! <hand-wringing>
Yeah, it may.  And then you'll beat it and move on with your life.  And if you don't - go gracefully and without fear.  Your gonna die anyway.  More likely from a accident on Thai roads then Covid-19. 

Peace!  Stop panicking people.  You're just making yourselves miserable and you're creating more panic!

 

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by connda

[connda]

1 hour ago, CLS said:

Better financially ruined than dead.

How many of the financially ruined will take their own lives? 

A financial disaster was avoidable.  Now?  I don't think so.  At least not in the West.  Thailand may yet weather the economic storm if cooler minds prevail.  

Dead?  A small minority of the infected will die.  The vast majority will recover.  

Fear is the mind killer.  Stop indulging people.  

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by connda

[FolkGuitar]

3 minutes ago, connda said:

How many of the financially ruined will take their own lives?  Serious observation.

 

Only the middle class and above.

The poor rarely commit suicide.

[tropo]

On 3/20/2020 at 9:23 PM, glennb6 said:

and when rules become tyranny....

 

" That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. "

 

"But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.-- "

 

woops, sorry, wrong country - here they just have military coops.

If given a choice between reopening the bars and massage parlours or closing everything else, the second choice is the most likely scenario. I would consider a massage parlour the greatest risk of all. You're asking for a coronavirus infection if you go to those filthy places (clean health spas excluded). Hand to face contact is one of the main methods of transmission. Why should a massage girl risk touching everyone. Masks won't help.

 

Thailand has been very slow to react, but soon you will be happy to find everything is closed, as it is headed that way. The bars should have closed weeks ago.

[donnacha]

6 hours ago, Nanaplaza666 said:

I like your comment just until the last 3 lines where you started to talk about people over 60yo , it will affect every person with underlying illness just as hard doesn't matter what age . Someone who's 28 and has lung problems or some kind off hartdeseace also has a big chance of not surviving . Diabetese , overweight , unhealthy , underlying illness it will hit people of every age .

You misunderstood. I said "people over 60 are in more trouble than they realize" because many at that age are robustly healthy, not diabetic, not overweight, still occasionally able to maintain an erection. They do not really believe they could suddenly have a problem. 60 is not really so old and it would be easy for someone at that age to not really believe they were at risk.

The people with underlying conditions, however, are already aware of how vulnerable they might be.

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by donnacha

[donnacha]

6 hours ago, Russell17au said:

Well, you have picked on the masseuses but you have failed to mention another job that has just as much contact with the customer as the masseuse and yet their shops are not closed and that is your hairdresser who is running their unclean hands through your hair and around your face while cutting and styling your hair and whilst standing over your face breathing on you whilst they give you your shave, but their shops are allowed to remain open.

The discussion was about the closing of the massage parlors. Your post is the first mention of hairdressers. If you are asking me if I think they should close too, of course I do.
 

 

6 hours ago, Russell17au said:

There is no difference between a bar and a restaurant as both the customers and the staff can infect each other exactly the same which ever one it is, but the bars are closed and the restaurants remain open. These laws are badly thought out and it is only doing a selected protection.

Sure, close them all, but I would not say that the distinction between restaurants and bars is "badly thought out". Restaurants provide food, which is necessary for proper human functioning. Bars sell alcohol which is not necessary for survival and specifically impairs proper human functioning. In particular, it impairs good decision-making, which obviously makes transmission prevention far harder.

Of course, this is all too late. At this stage, everyone with the exception of emergency and delivery workers should stay at home and f*cking stay there until at least June.

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by donnacha

[shy coconut]

On 3/20/2020 at 4:33 PM, orchis said:

do you get massaged with a 6 foot pole?

Those Polish girls are tough, I couldn't imagine a massage by one

who is 6 foot tall.

[richard_smith237]

9 hours ago, Logosone said:

How, has it already worked in China? When China put Wuhan into isolation half the population had already left. Other parts of China were still infected.

 

Yes, today it looks like cases in China have stopped increasing, but how can you be sure that this was because cities were cordonned off, where half the population had left already.

 

Maybe there are other reasons why the cases have stopped increasing.

Yes,..,. maybe ‘god’ slowed the spread...  Or maybe, just maybe the lock-down on Wuhan and social isolation in the rest of China had an impact on slowing down the spread of the virus such that it has been brought under control. 

 

 

Or... some unknown other reason - so what will you do, keep guessing. Or start accepting what the experts are saying that Isolation and social distancing works. It has worked in China and it will work else where if carried out properly. 

 

Remember, these measures are not about ’stopping transmission’ that is pretty much impossible. They are about ’slowing transmission’ so that we continue to have the resources to respond and are not overwhelmed at once. 

 

 

 

 

[RJRS1301]

On 3/21/2020 at 2:07 AM, Logosone said:

Closing massage parlors is stupid. 

These places could be models for "social distancing." You are in close contact with one person, you are separated from others by at least 6 feet and a curtain, and sometimes a different room, and if you get a foot massage and there are lots of people, you can sit every other chair. It's a model of how to keep a business running and be keeping your distance. 

 

I went to get a massage a couple of days ago as I feared they would do this. The place I go to has separate rooms. A scrupulously clean 23 year old masseuse with skills of divine touch.

 

To deprive a good honest farang of such pleasure is not just stupid, it is almost cruel and unusual punishment. 

 

I wouldn't dream of going to those curtain places though, I need separate rooms for privacy. 

I am curious as to know how the masseuse remains at least 1.5meters away from the customer when delivering a service.

 

 

[richard_smith237]

9 hours ago, Skeptic7 said:

10 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

What numbers are unacceptable to you? 

 

The worlds governments and experts have already decided, pretty much unanimously, that the numbers are too high. 

They didn’t come to the same conclusions with Ebola, SARS, MERS, Swine flu.

My personal acceptable numbers would be unacceptable to most, but are immaterial. The reality is acceptable and perspective necessary. 

 

Total deaths from all the above combined was approx 25,000. Hasn't been a case of SARS in 16 years. It was over-reacted to back then also. 

 

REMEMBER THE MILLIONS KILLED BY EBOLA? SARS? MERS? SWINE FLU? BIRD FLU? 

ME NEITHER.

DON'T PANIC.

 

[DON’T PANIC] - by that do you mean, don’t do anything? or just don’t get into a panic about the precaution measures being taken world wide?

 

The Numbers: Deaths so far are not considered extremely high in comparison other viruses, cancer, parasites etc. However, do you know this Virus will not spread to the billions? do you know that millions won’t be killed if we don’t do anything?

 

IF you were in a position of decision making power would you do nothing or having seen the projections (based on current growth rate and CFR) would you take effective measures to mitigate and slow down the transmission of this virus in its infancy.

 

In short: Would you stand by and do nothing? 

 

Governments took minimal action (in comparison to this global action on Covid-19) against Ebola, SARS, MERS, Swine Flu and Avian Flu because the models presented by experts were different and not as alarming. 

 

The Ebola spread rate was lower (it was not aerosol), SARS and MERS had very low transmission rates. 

The Flu’s had very high transmission rates and very low CFR’s, vaccines were quick to come by because we have been studying Influenza for decades. 

We have less knowledge of the Coronoaviruses, we ’should’ have studied them more after SARS and MERS, only Korea had taken measures to effectively respond to such an outbreak. 

 

 

 

[jastheace]

5 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

I am curious as to know how the masseuse remains at least 1.5meters away from the customer when delivering a service.

 

 

sounds like the same service my gf has supplied to me for the last 2 years. that's why I am sad that S6 has closed down.

[richard_smith237]

9 hours ago, Logosone said:

Yes, today it looks like cases in China have stopped increasing, but how can you be sure that this was because cities were cordonned off, where half the population had left already.

 

Maybe there are other reasons why the cases have stopped increasing.

 

With this logic, when in 6 months time the control measures on this crisis have been deemed a success and the ‘curve of infection rate’ has been smoothed such that health care was not overwhelmed and deaths curtailed to numbers significantly lower than the models suggested had we not done anything, people with the same argument as you would suggest... "See... it was ok, all of this was an over reaction !! what if there was another reason the cases stopped increasing?" !!!!

 

 

[jastheace]

2 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

[DON’T PANIC] - by that do you mean, don’t do anything? or just don’t get into a panic about the precaution measures being taken world wide?

 

The Numbers: Deaths so far are not considered extremely high in comparison other viruses, cancer, parasites etc. However, do you know this Virus will not spread to the billions? do you know that millions won’t be killed if we don’t do anything?

 

IF you were in a position of decision making power would you do nothing or having seen the projections (based on current growth rate and CFR) would you take effective measures to mitigate and slow down the transmission of this virus in its infancy.

 

In short: Would you stand by and do nothing? 

 

Governments took minimal action (in comparison to this global action on Covid-19) against Ebola, SARS, MERS, Swine Flu and Avian Flu because the models presented by experts were different and not as alarming. 

 

The Ebola spread rate was lower (it was not aerosol), SARS and MERS had very low transmission rates. 

The Flu’s had very high transmission rates and very low CFR’s, vaccines were quick to come by because we have been studying Influenza for decades. 

We have less knowledge of the Coronoaviruses, we ’should’ have studied them more after SARS and MERS, only Korea had taken measures to effectively respond to such an outbreak. 

 

 

 

agree. I also believe that there is more to covid19 than being broadcast. this is a new 'beast'. taken seriously by many governments. this is not SARS or MERS. They know that, but panic trying to be supressed. is this our Spanish flu?

[saengd]

On 3/20/2020 at 10:53 PM, Trujillo said:

Part of my point is that closing some businesses and not others with similar or more contact among people is ridiculous. 

 

How is a bar different from an establishment serving food? Why not close banks? All those people in the same place sitting as close as the now closed theaters? 

 

But oh, the danger! So horrible so far! Already ONE (1) person has died out of the entire population of 69,040,000,000. Are you scared? I know I am. 

(I should mention that the person who died already had Dengue fever, but let's not get distracted by the facts....)

 

You talk about the facts yet you don't know the difference between millions and billions, it doesn't help your argument or credibility.

[saengd]

The headlines out of the UK and USA are all about how people in the 24 to 35 years age group think they are invincible and are ignoring the request to stay home, instead they congregate just as before. From what I read in this thread there are other doubters who also will ignore the advice and of course that will increase the spread and cause even more people to die. How do I know these things to be true? Because I tend to trust the people put in charge to deal with such things and to provide appropriate advice rather than strain myself thinking up contrarian conspiracy theories that ultimately will make me look like a complete <deleted>.

 

What am I going to do? We're fortunate we have a large garden and access to it is very secure, we're staying within our perimeter and NOBODY is allowed in. When we do go out for essential shopping it's to a single store in the shortest possible time-frame, homemade masks and hand sanitizer at the ready. If we start to get symptoms we have paracetamol and we;ll see how it pans out. Our plan B is a run to one of the private hospitals and we have cash on hand in case there are problems. Chances are that if we stay put we'll be just fine.

[Ron jeremy]

22 hours ago, pookondee said:

I agree. 

As far as the bars closing, Its akin to the religious holidays in Thailand when folks moan about the bars being closed for 1 day.

when we hear it said:

If you can't do without it for 1 day, then you have bigger personal issues to consider.

 

Well, this is a very good reason for those places to close for a while. 

Its all about doing anything and everything we can NOW, to minimize the spread.

 

If we do nothing and this virus really spreads and takes hold, then its not just our local areas, but ALL the worlds economies, financial systems..the lot..

will go into meltdown.

Its a scary scenario.

 

And as far as Thailand is concerned,

is even scarier, since (unlike the west) 

Thailand has NEVER had any sufficient welfare systems in place for 

ANY sector of Thai society.

 

I think we can all agree, 500 baht per month WONT cut it.

 

That means if there is long term shutdowns, and massive loss of jobs, then millions of Thai people will left on their own with ZERO income,

not even 300baht a day

 

You dont have to be an Oxford scholar to see how thats gonna work out.

 

Its probably why many people have been advising for some time, for westerners to get out of Asia. 

 

Yet we read on here some people are still trying to find ways around the travel restrictions and scrambling to get back into Thailand thinking it will somehow be better to "wait it out in Thailand" 

 

 

Great post

people don’t understand the severity of the virus, still thinking of booze and whores

i mean get a life

this is the last place anyone with half a brain wants to be. 
and even with things shutting Moro every day, there are still people talking about coming to Thailand