New testing method behind sharp increase in Covid-19 cases since March 15

[donnacha]

19 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Except no matter how they class the cases (CV vs pneumonia or whatever), if the outbreak keeps spreading unchecked, the hospital admission numbers are going to continue swelling to the point of being unsustainable. And that's something, ultimately, they won't be able to hide.

As far as I can tell, it was initially denial that slowly morphed into a stalling strategy, but that has now been successfully completed and they will slowly wind down the cover-up.

My guess is that, as they became aware of the scale of the problem in China, the Thai government knew it had to already be in Thailand, by far the favorite foreign destination of the citizens of Wuhan, but hoped that they could delay any decisions until after the busiest time of year for the Thai tourist industry. An informal consensus formed in government circles that the virus would not spread as effectively in Thailand's warmer climate.

Meanwhile, China's line was that they were controlling the situation and would be disappointed if other countries overreacted by blocking flights from China. The Thai government could not afford to offend China, the main supporter of their regime. So, they continued to welcome Chinese visitors with open arms, most memorably by stage-managing supposedly spontaneous public demonstrations of solidarity with the sufferers of Wuhan Flu. Thailand, of courses, had no cases of it. Just an awful lot of people with pneumonia. Laws were instituted to prevent regional health authorities from talking to the media about this strange coincidence.

The government's original hope that the virus would just disappear as the weather continued to heat up was eventually replaced with the pragmatic calculation that Thailand should continue to suppress the outbreak until the virus spread to enough countries to take the spotlight off Thailand. That time is now. As America, with 54,000 active cases, overtakes Italy as the world epicenter, Thailand feels confident enough to replace their rigged testing process, deftly sweeping their cover-up under the carpet. The official narrative going forward will be that the outbreak in Thailand was caused not by the political cowardice and greed of failing to halt all entry from China in January, but by mostly European tourists who refused to wear masks.

 

 

[rabas]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

I think there also are two different issues at play:

--one is the rate at which different age groups can become infected with CV.

--the other is the rate at which CV causes serious health problems in different age groups.

 

I'm not sure that younger age cohorts are any less susceptible to being infected with the virus. But the medical opinion and results are pretty clear thus far that older age cohorts are much more likely to have serious health problems once they are infected.

Here are the 2 issues on the same graph from ARS. Younger people make up the majority of cases. I would assume because much older people are less mobile.

 

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by rabas

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, donnacha said:

The government's original hope that the virus would just disappear as the weather continued to heat up was eventually replaced with the pragmatic calculation that Thailand should continue to suppress the outbreak until the virus spread to enough countries to take the spotlight off Thailand. That time is now.

 

You can see here my comparison of the official stats from this Tuesday vs Tuesday one week ago.... The numbers are skyrocketing.... with PUI current hospitalizations now exceeding 5000 nationwide, more than doubling in just one week. 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Mung]

5 hours ago, ParkerN said:

 

 

Ooh. Scary. But not Corona Virus (no corona)

 

Still scary though...

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah that name corona stems from "crown" or "halo", which refers to the characteristic appearance reminiscent of a crown or a solar corona around the virions (virus particles) when viewed under two-dimensional transmission electron microscopiy, due to the surface being covered in club-shaped protein spikes.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Mung

[Mung]

4 hours ago, sciack said:

But that’s not a coronavirus 

I didn't say it was, neither is the OP image a corona virus. 

[Krataiboy]

20 hours ago, sweatalot said:

It's the other way round.

The old testing method in Thailand is behind the unbelievably low number of cases before.

 

9 hours ago, donnacha said:

Extrapolating anything from the official Thai government figures is a waste of time.

They did everything they could to avoid conducting tests and, once forced to take a test, they set this ridiculous barrier of requiring that two labs both get a positive result - if you are getting different results often enough to have a noticeable impact on your overall numbers, wow, there is something seriously wrong with at least one of your labs.

We know what result they actually wanted because any scientifically valid system would count one lab positive and one lab negative as either a confirmed infection or, at the very least, retake the test. Quite deliberately, they counted one positive and one negative as a negative result.

Every single Thai working in the health system knows that the government has been funneling all the cases requiring hospitalization into the stats for pneumonia, hoping to camouflage the outbreak until it had spread to enough other countries to take the attention away from Thailand. It was shameless, it was criminal, but, we have to admit, it worked.

So, forget about the "interesting" age groups they are now claiming have it, forget about comparing their stats with countries who actually tested and reported transparently. The real question is what areas Covid-19 will now suddenly emerge in, and whether those are exactly the same areas that have spent the past 3 months dealing with an unprecedented outbreak of "pneumonia".

 

The testing methods being used vary substantially - even within countries, as evidenced by Thailand - and are unreliable.

 

All official infections data be taken with a big pinch of sodium chloride. As should computer-modelled forecasts of the spread of the virus.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

 

 

[DrTuner]

9 hours ago, rabas said:

If it is the new testing they announced a a short while back, it is not antibody testing. It's the latest, state of the art CRISPR rna/dna rapid detection from the US MIT and others. It takes 30 to 45 minutes and stands to be a real game changer.

 

Google "CRISPR coronavirus" or "CRISPR COVID-19".

CRISPR may be a game-changer for a cure too: https://www.wired.com/story/could-crispr-be-the-next-virus-killer/

 

The netflix documentary "Unnatural Selection" is good binging material while isolated at home and bored to watch "Contagion" for the umpteenth time.

 

[DrTuner]

6 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The numbers are skyrocketing.... with PUI current hospitalizations now exceeding 5000 nationwide, more than doubling in just one week. 

With R0 hovering somewhere between 2-4 and average duplication time of ~5 days, yes, it should more than double in a week.

[Millian]

14 hours ago, Jimbo2014 said:

Testing?  We have had Covid19 after our house guest tested positive upon arrival at his destination.  We are waitlisted 5 more days for safe testing, thats 15 days post infection.  Fortunately a relatively mild case.  Seems there is no real access to testing in Bangkok.

They are testing, but it's prioritised for people with symptoms or at very high risk of having been infected.

 

I've been for a test myself at Chulalongkorn hospital, as I live with someone that has been tested positive and is in hospital at the moment.

 

There is a long wait, I got there before 7am on Monday, had number 46 and left at 3pm.

 

They prioritise the people by symptoms and non symptoms. If you don't have symptoms, you get a chest x-ray and if that is clear they do not do the swab test for covid19.

 

If you have symptoms, or like myself have been in very close contact with a confirmed case, they will also do the covid test. This is after a consultation with a Dr who asses your x-ray, symptoms/risk of infection and decides if you warrant a test.

 

The swab test is around the back of the mouth and right up the nose, which really stings!

 

I got my results approx 24hrs later, which were negative.

 

[Traubert]

On 3/24/2020 at 7:16 PM, Guderian said:

 

On 3/24/2020 at 7:16 PM, Guderian said:

I could rattle on about several other things in there , but don't want to bore anyone.

 

 

 

 

Crack on. A far few aren't as considerate.

[Letseng]

On 3/24/2020 at 1:45 PM, smedly said:

more younger people are active - next time you are out and about in Bangkok do a quick survey of young versus old you see as you move around - might surprise you 

Problem will come when kids pass the virus to grandparents. Kids have no symptoms. This is why so many old ppl are infected in Italy. Schools closed down early, kids were parked with grandma. Bingo.

In Austria the highest no. Is also in the younger age groups.

Infections spread in ski resorts.

More men than women.

[Letseng]

1 hour ago, Millian said:

They are testing, but it's prioritised for people with symptoms or at very high risk of having been infected.

 

I've been for a test myself at Chulalongkorn hospital, as I live with someone that has been tested positive and is in hospital at the moment.

 

There is a long wait, I got there before 7am on Monday, had number 46 and left at 3pm.

 

They prioritise the people by symptoms and non symptoms. If you don't have symptoms, you get a chest x-ray and if that is clear they do not do the swab test for covid19.

 

If you have symptoms, or like myself have been in very close contact with a confirmed case, they will also do the covid test. This is after a consultation with a Dr who asses your x-ray, symptoms/risk of infection and decides if you warrant a test.

 

The swab test is around the back of the mouth and right up the nose, which really stings!

 

I got my results approx 24hrs later, which were negative.

 

And is everybody queueing up in the same area?

[dcnx]

That’s what I’ve been saying all along and some of you dummies want to pretend there’s no problem here. Thailand has been full of cases since January and they were diagnosing them as having pneumonia. Others were not getting tested.

[Boomer6969]

Let's hope antibody test kits become available soon, and then we might face a massive surprise: the proof that millions of people have been exposed. Hopefully it will be the case as all the current containment measures could be dropped and  a new strategy developed. 

[Jimbo2014]

10 hours ago, Millian said:

They are testing, but it's prioritised for people with symptoms or at very high risk of having been infected.

 

I've been for a test myself at Chulalongkorn hospital, as I live with someone that has been tested positive and is in hospital at the moment.

 

There is a long wait, I got there before 7am on Monday, had number 46 and left at 3pm.

 

They prioritise the people by symptoms and non symptoms. If you don't have symptoms, you get a chest x-ray and if that is clear they do not do the swab test for covid19.

 

If you have symptoms, or like myself have been in very close contact with a confirmed case, they will also do the covid test. This is after a consultation with a Dr who asses your x-ray, symptoms/risk of infection and decides if you warrant a test.

 

The swab test is around the back of the mouth and right up the nose, which really stings!

 

I got my results approx 24hrs later, which were negative.

 

Appreciate that.  We have been through the process.  We had a close friend stay from UK who 12 hours after leaving our house tested positive upon arrival at his post.    My wife and i both developed symptoms 3-4 days later.  We are on day 11 since infection and 3 days waitlisted for a drive through testing.  Given events and contact level which was very high, we have little doubt as to our status but we are fortunate to have not had a severe infection.  We phoned four hospitals and were told that unless we had moderate or severe symptoms to stay away as the testing wait was long and we would be seated with others waiting who may have other viruses or even other strains of Covid.  The nurse sounded tired and indicated services were strained.  Given we were not life threatened we opted for the wait and continue self isolating for 20 full days.  My wifes main concern is that her sense of taste and smell have not returned which for a Thai is twice as important ????but other than that we seem to have survived ok but have periods of low energy.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Jimbo2014

[Ian Nagle]

On 3/25/2020 at 12:08 AM, realfunster said:

 

Some folks in my office tried to get tested, no symptoms, just out of fear.

They were turned away from numerous hospitals. Great, they should be testing those of concern at this stage. 

For this video, whilst it is mildly informative, I think a minor sore throat is probably insufficient to consider yourself as high risk.

Based on her presentation style she clearly is a frequent and experienced media contributor, so it’s all good stuff and a small price to pay to get the views and Ad revenues on her channel...

Her 'dirty farang'  boyfriend paid anyway. No skin off her nose job.

[Aussie999]

On 3/25/2020 at 12:30 PM, sciack said:

But that’s not a coronavirus 

the photo is of a bacteriophage, the phage group, of bacteria, are used as an antibacterial agent, so a very wrong photo, used when discussing coronavirus..

[DrTuner]

I shall predict 107 today.

 

They need a couple of dozen more "new testing methods" to go over that. Or somebody could take their foot off the pipe.