Thailand records 107 new coronavirus cases, bringing total to 934 - health official

[balo]

60% of the population will get infected sooner or later. The virus can't be stopped until there is a vaccine ready.   

[Chazar]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

860 patients are still being treated in hospitals.

i  still  dont  get  this......if  most  people  have  mild  symptoms  why  are  they  keeping  them in?

[CLW]

1 hour ago, fcbkk said:

 

May i suggest to refrain from speculation? Simple search finds this article that reported daily test capacity between 7.5-11k as of 13-March, and in the process of expansion. However, i doubt they actually conduct tests to capacity.

Has anyone seen official reports of the number of test conducted? 

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30384005

Well the numbers just make not much sense when relying on mathematical models and experiences from other countries.

The number of infected person according to the calculations should be much higher.

[CLW]

39 minutes ago, spermwhale said:

I think you are right because the last few days the new cases have been about the same. 

There are two weak links in the Thai system that I have not seen covered by any news outlet:
1. The respirator situation ... how many they have and what are they doing to get more. Prayut should meet with the carmakers here so they can retool their factories to start pumping out respirators as is happening in UK and in the US voluntarily. 
2. Testing ... How many tests can they carry out daily. Why aren't they getting more tests from South Korea which has been aggressive in testing. The government should be paying for all tests considering that the majority of Thais cannot afford them.

 

A doctor from Chulalongkorn University said that in the whole country of Thailand there are only 100 beds or units available that have a negative pressure system for isolation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that is probably also the reason why private hospitals refuse to treat Covid 19 patients. They can't afford to infect other critical ill persons.

 

They only way out I see are isolation facilities outside of regular hospitals.

[Timwin]

Thai government is doing quite ok job with this despite of the TV squad denigrating, belittling anythign related to their current place of stay. Certainly UK and USA are not doing any better.

 

Of course the tropical weather helps a lot to reduce the spreading. Coronaviruses (there are many) typically have U-shape number-of-cases curve where summer is in the middle. 

[nullx8]

so I guess that means there where 934 tests made and all where positive ? Without the reference about the total samplesize this is completely useless information.

[ThailandRyan]

21 minutes ago, Chazar said:

i  still  dont  get  this......if  most  people  have  mild  symptoms  why  are  they  keeping  them in?

They need tiddlywink partners.....

[sahibji]

it is the 67 who are going to prove to be the issue. contact tracing may be impossible now.

[robsamui]

The government banning hospitals reporting new cases on 4th March . . .
The 80 illegal workers returning from S. Korea who simply walked away from government quarantine in Chon Buri on March 8th . . .
1,130 people missing, unaccounted for and untested out of the eventual 5,000 who came back from S. Korea on or around the 11th of the month . . . 

Many thousands (at least 6,000 at the last reckoning in mid-March) deemed to be suffering  from "viral flu" . . . 
Chinese tourists in mid-March still allowed in and encouraged by visa fee being waved . . . (happily China wouldn't let them out of the country) . . . 

The 3rd week in March bars, restaurants and entertainment venues closed, causing thousands of Thais to all crowd together at train and bus stations to head for the provinces . . . 

Foreigners and tourists forced to adhere to medieval bureaucracy in immigration queues . . . no sympathy, no mercy, no compassion from the government - fines for overstaying . . . 

 

And now, suddenly in a panic, the government declares a state of emergency, long after all the damage has already been done, but does nothing to actually enforce the ban on public gatherings.

 

Taking a step back - if that's possible - and looking at these actions, this might appear to be a nation firmly set on self-destruct.

 

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by robsamui

[sahibji]

26 minutes ago, balo said:

60% of the population will get infected sooner or later. The virus can't be stopped until there is a vaccine ready.   

that is a frightening prediction. hope it is does not come true.

[TheFishman1]

The numbers are much higher I’m sure

[balo]

1 minute ago, sahibji said:

that is a frightening prediction. hope it is does not come true.

That's what many experts in Europe are talking about. Herd immunity.  But many people will die along the way so not a good idea.  

[DrTuner]

Somebody could count change in pending per day minus increase in PUI to see how many tests have been executed that day. Then take the percentage of positives and apply it to currently pending results and you'll get an estimate of positives.

 

I can't even be arsed to do that anymore, I've been yapping about the testing being throttled for a couple of months. Currently the main bottleneck is not testing those that don't fit their narrow PUI criteris. Just check my posting history.

 

I'd guess there are at least 20000 positives out there. The time slot to execute lockdown is passing by in a few days and Thailand will enter the phase of uncontrolled growth in infections and deaths. 

[dave moir]

3 hours ago, ThreeEyedRaven said:

Given the incubation period, it is the numbers about a week from now that are going to be all important. The 100 or so a day being picked up now will probably lead to an exponential rise of hundreds or thousands daily, at which point we will be in serious trouble.

We're doomed Captain Manering!!!

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Somebody could count change in pending per day minus increase in PUI to see how many tests have been executed that day. Then take the percentage of positives and apply it to currently pending results and you'll get an estimate of positives.

 

I can't even be arsed to do that anymore, I've been yapping about the testing being throttled for a couple of months. Currently the main bottleneck is not testing those that don't fit their narrow PUI criteris. Just check my posting history.

 

I'd guess there are at least 20000 positives out there. The time slot to execute lockdown is passing by in a few days and Thailand will enter the phase of uncontrolled growth in infections and deaths. 

Exponential growth at an unknown pace...its just plain sad to see that some people love to play with other peoples lives instead of protecting them.. Just think about the border countries where Thailand unleashed those migrants through the locked border facilities the last two days...just tragic.  If I was one of the leaders of those countries I would be furious, but then they will probably track there citizens and provide them with the needed help....thanks Thailand, China, and all those countries that did not step up soon enough, Yes USA I am upset with my own country as well, to put my children who are involved in the medical community and military, directly in harms way...

Edited March 25, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[Chazar]

11 minutes ago, sahibji said:

that is a frightening prediction. hope it is does not come true.

ok mr  <deleted> yer  pants go read the survival rates  to cheer  yourself  up

[bkk6060]

The numbers really are low.

I believe in Team Thailand.

[Brunolem]

41 minutes ago, Chazar said:

i  still  dont  get  this......if  most  people  have  mild  symptoms  why  are  they  keeping  them in?

They need to treat them so that they don't go out infect others.

 

Anyway, what matters most is the breakdown of the numbers between the different stages of the sickness.

 

From what I saw today on national TV, only 4 infected persons are actually in a very critical state.

 

Total numbers are meaningless.

 

Better have 1,000 infected with 4 deaths and another 4 critical cases, than 100 infected with 10 deaths and 10 critical cases.

 

It's all a matter of proportions between mild and severe...

 

 

[Chiang Mai Bill]

934 -- this means that 934 people have been ''tested'' and found positive!

 

There will be many more that have not yet been tested; some will have contacted the virus but will have no reaction (but are carriers); some will have the symptoms in the next 48 hours!

 

The figures will be well in excess of 1000 tomorrow!

[RJRS1301]

5 minutes ago, Chiang Mai Bill said:

934 -- this means that 934 people have been ''tested'' and found positive!

 

There will be many more that have not yet been tested; some will have contacted the virus but will have no reaction (but are carriers); some will have the symptoms in the next 48 hours!

 

The figures will be well in excess of 1000 tomorrow!

Probably 2000 before the weekend

[DrTuner]

4754 pending test results yesterday. And that's with the restrictive PUI criteria. Draw your own conclusions, stay home, stay safe. Going to be a rough three months.

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

Probably 2000 before the weekend

Today plus 105 x days is likely a good estimate. The limit of their capacity to do tests.

[cardinalblue]

The only thing that is important is how many cases in CM?

[jmacken306]

3 hours ago, spiekerjozef said:

There are many countries who don't test (only the ones who went to a hospital with symptoms). That's why numbers in Italy, Netherlands etc. should be much higher.

Germany is the biggest testing country. They test 160.000 people in a week. That's more then double the people then S. Korea test in a week.

And what S. Korea did was already impressive.

Glad to see there is at least one smart person n probably been listing to the news. Even the USA count is going up in the last few days because now they have drive-up stations in the most heavily hit areas. There weren't that many kits in the USA and then most of them were faulty. So now with the new kits, they are still only asking the people that have a fever, etc etc to get tested because of the shortage of kits n the length of time to get results..... They are getting new tests, drive-up service n faster results so now the results will change a great deal but not 100% of the people still will not get tested, because have probably recovered. Time will tell. They just closed my home state of Michigan down this week also.  My wife has to call my BKK Dr. to see about my appointment next week since BKK is closed, at least it's just to get a refill at the Army Hospital. 

[fcbkk]

1 hour ago, CLW said:

Well the numbers just make not much sense when relying on mathematical models and experiences from other countries.

The number of infected person according to the calculations should be much higher.

 

You speculated there was a test capacity of 100 per day, which is far from the reality. This is what i responded to and provided a source that is easily available if you had looked. 

It is obvious there are more cases out there, but the reason for not doing more testing is not the lack of lab capacity.

[fcbkk]

40 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Today plus 105 x days is likely a good estimate. The limit of their capacity to do tests.

No that is not the limit. See my previous post #13 with a link for info on test capacity. Whatever the reason for the low number of tests it is not lab capacity. 

[JimLuce]

They’ve already announced in the United States that the numbers are still coming in so of course the numbers are still going to probably get higher in coming days just simply because they are probably still counting infections so it’s no reason to be further alarmed. Plus after a month of self quarantine and social distancing which for the most part people seem to be doing it so hopefully by next month we’ll start seeing these numbers get lower. Because people are seriously taking action reaction unfortunately proactive would have been nice in a certain place but at least they are reacting well and dealing with the situation well and most governments are also doing a good job so far of reacting and trying to salvage the world economy and the entire world order. They’re still in control and the world is still going and we’ll get through this. We’ve seen things like 9-11, and the world has been through worse so in the year 2020 we have the skills, the technology, and the know how to beat this thing. It’s bad but it’s NOT the end of the world. The government seems to be reacting quite well so far and doing the right things so it’ll be ok. 

[DrTuner]

6 minutes ago, fcbkk said:

No that is not the limit. See my previous post #13 with a link for info on test capacity. Whatever the reason for the low number of tests it is not lab capacity. 

I agree it's not the lab capacity. There are many other ways to throttle the pipeline.

[JimLuce]

Is a little bit of humor allowed to post? What about posting a comical YouTube video from a movie clip that satirizes all of us watching the news scared? Am I allowed to post something like that? It’s actually funny and it lightens people up in this mess so I don’t see why not. But I should probably ask before I post it. I’m afraid to post anything funny. I don’t see any thing wrong with humor in times like these.
 

Are YouTube videos allowed? I have something that’ll make everyone chuckle a little. 

Edited March 25, 2020 by JimLuce

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

They need to treat them so that they don't go out infect others.

 

Anyway, what matters most is the breakdown of the numbers between the different stages of the sickness.

 

From what I saw today on national TV, only 4 infected persons are actually in a very critical state.

 

Total numbers are meaningless.

 

Better have 1,000 infected with 4 deaths and another 4 critical cases, than 100 infected with 10 deaths and 10 critical cases.

 

It's all a matter of proportions between mild and severe...

 

 

 

Not quite that simple. Right now, there are 5000+ COVID "patients under investigation" hospitalized in Thailand.

 

Each of those patients is taking up a hospital bed, requiring doctor and nurse care at some level. And that figure more than doubled just in the past week.

 

People can speculate on why and whether the govt. is being truthful and prompt about reporting confirmed cases (900+). But to me, the better indicator is the number of people actually hospitalized with symptoms consistent with COVID.... because that's where the crunch on the health care system is going to occur as that number continues to spiral.