Wake up guys!

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, URMySunshine said:

Boris. Did.It We were warned. Trump's gonna be furious so please don't tell him. 

 

Joking aside though that's your spin on the NYT report and doesn't quite explain why ER's are overwhelmed with multiple additional deaths when the virus reaches a critical mass in its host countries.Time and time again. It's like the Y2K bug if it all goes well then folk will say was it worth it. If it is ultimately inconsequential as you suggest then a world rest may turn out to be a healthy way to start the world and countries on a different trajectory. A system reboot that cleans out a load of accumulated <deleted> that was taking us nowhere. The bubble to end all bubbles had to pop in the end and the world needs to move to more domestic production and a more equitable way of organising society. This changes have already begun.

 

If Trump wants to go that way then up to him here in the Uk we will wait it out for a couple of months,  get enhanced healthcare facilities in place and support our population - because that's what we do. And in Thailand a great reckoning is long overdue - bring it on. And of course the US is basically a rogue English colony - it's in your DNA. Korea,Vietnam,Cambodia,Laos,Iraq to name but a few if we are in the business of cataloging clusterf&cks - it's what Empires do after all. 

I read that twice and still have little idea of what you are saying. Perhaps you could re write it more simply, please.

[AussieBob18]

10 hours ago, URMySunshine said:

Hi Bob hope you will be volunteering at ER when they need a hand for this pesky flu. They sure could do with a helping hand. 

Let me know the name and location of your nearest hospital and I will make sure you get the treatment you deserve ????

 

[cornishcarlos]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

What I do know is that the government has the power ( police ) to force us to stay in our accommodation regardless of the consequences.

 

Maybe for a short period but once the majority have had enough of being caged, there will be blood in the streets....

The internet will have to be censored to stop an uprising... 

Where are we going on this journey ???

[Olmate]

10 hours ago, URMySunshine said:

Needs must. 

Whoosh! Over your head.....

[Brunolem]

8 hours ago, bartender100 said:

260 died yesterday in the UK, one of those i knew personally, and she dies in complete agony France had even more deaths

 

And some clowns think this is not serious

Sorry to hear that.

 

Now, how many died of cancer, in terrible pain.

 

The problem with those obsessing about the coronavirus is that they have come to believe that this virus is the ONLY cause of death, and pain, in the world.

 

As I said somewhere else, faced with a choice between getting a cancer and getting the virus, I would chose the virus right away.

 

What about you?

[Tagged]

22 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Meanwhile, in Sweden which has only 2,510 cases and 42 deaths, schools, bars and restaurants are open, and only those over 70 are asked to stay home...

Updatet information 

 

 

sweeden 

3445 cases

105 deaths

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[Tagged]

1 minute ago, Tagged said:

Updatet information 

 

 

sweeden 

3445 cases

105 deaths

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

That is 5 times almost Norway who is in almost complete lockdown, but only half population. Registered cases means nothing since the real number for Norway is estimated to be 5-7 times mote. 
 

basicle it means accepting double deathrate when comparing Norway and Sweeden. 
 

Some still say it is just a natural cleaning up by nature, but it also put healthy people at risk when resourches and capacity could have been used different.

 

 

[rumak]

1 hour ago, cornishcarlos said:

The internet will have to be censored to stop an uprising... 

just a flick of a switch  CC     

 

"they got us by the balls!"    GC  (george carlin)

[Brunolem]

39 minutes ago, Tagged said:

That is 5 times almost Norway who is in almost complete lockdown, but only half population. Registered cases means nothing since the real number for Norway is estimated to be 5-7 times mote. 
 

basicle it means accepting double deathrate when comparing Norway and Sweeden. 
 

Some still say it is just a natural cleaning up by nature, but it also put healthy people at risk when resourches and capacity could have been used different.

 

 

It is a choice between two evils.

 

Either they sacrifice a small part of the population now, and go on as usual

 

or

 

they go on lockdown now, and sacrifice the economy and a large part of the population later...but not much later...very soon in fact...

[rumak]

Gee,  why did she need to start her own topic ??

 

Why some Caucasion not wear mask???

By Yinn
Started 35 minutes ago

 

we are all in this room Ms Yinn.    please bash us over here if you like

[Olmate]

16 minutes ago, rumak said:

Gee,  why did she need to start her own topic ??

 

Why some Caucasion not wear mask???

By Yinn
Started 35 minutes ago

 

we are all in this room Ms Yinn.    please bash us over here if you like

Because as potty,Thai lady, on expat forum, in time of need, that’s the best she got...oh yes and it’s original!

[robblok]

20 hours ago, Logosone said:

No, actually flu pandemics in the past had a far higher mortality rate.

 

You make the mistake of just counting identified cases. If you times that figure by ten or twenty, as Sir Vallance suggests you have a more accurate figure of the mortality rate in Italy.

 

You're clearly not well informed. The problem with your let's all stay at home to give time for hospitals to help Covid19 patients is that it will cause more deaths. As hospitals focus on Covid 19 for longer the care for the 80% of non-Covid 19 patients is impaired, operations are cancelled, beds moved off-site to people with less expertise. The longer this is dragged out the more deaths from critically ill non-Covid19 patients will happen. And all for what? To let doctors deal with Covid19? They have no therapy, no vaccine, no materials. What's the benefit? Those that die are over 81 for the most part, bar the odd exception.

No your not well informed at all, you might be right about the mortality rate but then one could say the infection rate is much higher. What is happening in Italy is unheard of never happend with a flu. So start thinking straight this is what can happen. Having to turn people away and letting them die is what they are doing there. This has not happened in modern history.

 

Have fun with your austridge politics. 

[Logosone]

6 hours ago, AlexRich said:

The Germans got their act together and tested. If they hadn’t they’d be having the same issues as other countries. So far Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea have done likewise, with good results. They all learned the lessons from previous outbreaks like SARS. 

Yes, as soon as the genome was released by the Chinese a small German company started working day and night and weekends and produced 1.4 million test kits in four weeks. They had so many they gave over a million to the WHO for other countries. I'm mystified why UK and US companies didn't do that, don't they have biotech companies? South Korean companies did the same.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/16/cdc-who-coronavirus-tests/

 

This does of course not change the fact that the German government was criminally reckless in not preparing better in 2012 when its own Robert Koch Institute warned of this pandemic. They should have already had the tests. And much like South Korean and everyone else they should have closed the country in January when the world watched what was unfolding in Wuhan. So much for learning lessons from SARS.

[AussieBob18]

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC USA estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus (Swine Flu).

306.8 million - population of USA

60.9 million cases = 19.85% infection rate

12,469 deaths = 4.5% of those hospitalised (274K)

12,469 deaths = 0.000002% of those infected (60.9 million)

 

In Italy (worse case of Covid19) the death rate of those being treated is 10%

But they are counting people who commit suicide who have Covid19 as dieing of Covid19

And they are allegedly counting all people who die who have Covid19 in blood as dieing of Covid19

Italy are over estimating the death numbers, and they are greatly under testing the population

 

Germany is mass testing on a scale unmatched anywhere else in the world (until USA ramps up).

Germany has now ramped up its testing to 500,000 a week - brilliant

They estimate over 800K have now been tested - 48.5K infected - infection rate = 6.1% (and shrinking)

48,582 cases - 325 deaths = 0.67% of those infected

 

Worst case scenario as predicted by WHO - 3-5 million people die from Covid19

Long way to go, but the numbers dont yet add up to justify a worldwide panic and economic collapse

 

If they are wrong - cannot be said - because they said IF notiing is done Covid19 will kill that many.

I still think and hope they were wrong - but the impositions are in place and I will comply.

Either way the outcomes will be bad whether they are right or wrong, but they could also be good.

 

• Ramped up medical services and infrastructure (for the next one - like Germany was able to provide);
• Massive increased skeptibility against 'chicken little' claims by Govts/People in the future;
• The People even more skeptical against the fake news media - even more focus/attention to social media;
• Ramped up inbuilt safety mechanisms to stop any panic selling on stock markets;
• Clearly understood and rationally planned steps of implementation to control people's movements in a country;
• Clearly understood and rationally planned steps of implementation to control people's movements internationally;
• Severe economic punishment for China's refusal to share information and for allowing people to travel in and out.

 

[Logosone]

5 hours ago, Blue Mango said:

So, in a nutshell, Germany have also implemented social distancing. Therefore Germany are also following Ferguson. 

 

This Ferguson chap seems to wield more power and influence over Earthlings than General Zod ????

 

Yes you could say that. However, Germany had the social distancing before the UK, they phased the measures in slowly from 6 March. Whilst the UK, due to Ferguson, was still following the herd immunity approach. Then Ferguson thought he'd made some mistake and totally revised his paper. The UK then followed the suppression route and become social distancing central. The reason for this was also that the UK had no testing kits, so doing what Germany did was not an option, Ferguson said this.

 

Ferguson is extremely powerful and influential. This is because he worked on previous pandemics and his qualifications in epidemiology and statistics are flawless, but also because his work was not flawed on the previous pandemics he worked on, he got an OBE. Of course this is still the business of mathematic modelling. It tried to predict the future. And in the absence of crucial data. Mistakes can happen, and have happened. See the Guardian's criticism of Ferguson's model:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling

 

[AussieBob18]

18 minutes ago, Logosone said:

See the Guardian's criticism of Ferguson's model:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling

 

Just like the modelling to claim climate change will destroy the planet in 12 years?  Sorry - off topic but I had to say that.

Back to it ...........

[Tagged]

27 minutes ago, robblok said:

No your not well informed at all, you might be right about the mortality rate but then one could say the infection rate is much higher. What is happening in Italy is unheard of never happend with a flu. So start thinking straight this is what can happen. Having to turn people away and letting them die is what they are doing there. This has not happened in modern history.

 

Have fun with your austridge politics. 

The common flue strain, we have some immunity against and also an yearly vaccine for those who is at risk, and also for those who working with people. 
 

Corona, we do not have a vaccine against when next generation strain is arriving! 
 

simple math for most! 

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, Tagged said:

That is 5 times almost Norway who is in almost complete lockdown, but only half population. Registered cases means nothing since the real number for Norway is estimated to be 5-7 times mote. 
 

basicle it means accepting double deathrate when comparing Norway and Sweeden. 
 

Some still say it is just a natural cleaning up by nature, but it also put healthy people at risk when resourches and capacity could have been used different.

 

 

Your analysis is wrong, Tagged.

 

As you rightly say identified cases does not equal actual cases. So how can you make a statement about the death rate when you have no accurate number of actual cases?

 

The best you can do is estimate, but if you do so, you should do so correctly. The UK has said that for every death there 1000 cases. So using this multiplier in Sweden there could be 105,000 cases, there's probably more, but lets take this conservative estimate. That would mean Sweden has a death rate of 0.1%.

 

Rinse and repeat for Norway, same result. 23000 cases and 0.1% death rate. 

 

Of course Norway, thanks to North Sea Oil, is a more affluent country than Sweden, and also half the size. The reason for the lower deaths is therefore most likely A) Norway has fewer cases and B) It has less people sick in its health service and better resources to allocate to the critically ill Covid19 patients than Sweden.

[AussieBob18]

22 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes you could say that. However, Germany had the social distancing before the UK, they phased the measures in slowly from 6 March. Whilst the UK, due to Ferguson, was still following the herd immunity approach. Then Ferguson thought he'd made some mistake and totally revised his paper. The UK then followed the suppression route and become social distancing central. The reason for this was also that the UK had no testing kits, so doing what Germany did was not an option, Ferguson said this.

Ferguson is extremely powerful and influential. This is because he worked on previous pandemics and his qualifications in epidemiology and statistics are flawless, but also because his work was not flawed on the previous pandemics he worked on, he got an OBE. Of course this is still the business of mathematic modelling. It tried to predict the future. And in the absence of crucial data. Mistakes can happen, and have happened. See the Guardian's criticism of Ferguson's model:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling

 

How I see this going forward is that one of three things will occur.

 

1.  The number of infections and deaths will continue to grow in the next month or two, in which case this will be the new norm for the next year or so. Because no Govt will take the risk to shut snctions down, and risk this virus ramping back up.

 

2.  The number of infections and deaths will slow and decrease in the next month or two, in which case these impositions will be slowly eased and pulled back - while keeping an eye on the numbers.  Because all Govts want to get to normal, but they want to be able to justify easing the sanctions - just in case the virus ramps back up.

 

3 A.  The number of infections and deaths will slow and decrease in the next month or two, in some countries and not in others.  In which case these snactions will be slowly eased and pulled back in some countries - while keeping an eye on the numbers and holding the ban on international travel in place, with a few exceptions for those certified as Covid19 free. 

 

3 B. The number of infections and deaths will continue to grow in the next month or two in some countries, in which case this will be the new norm for them for the next year or so. Because no Govt will take the risk to shut the sanctions down, and risk this virus ramping back up - and all international travel bans will remain in place.

 

[Logosone]

43 minutes ago, robblok said:

No your not well informed at all, you might be right about the mortality rate but then one could say the infection rate is much higher. What is happening in Italy is unheard of never happend with a flu. So start thinking straight this is what can happen. Having to turn people away and letting them die is what they are doing there. This has not happened in modern history.

 

Have fun with your austridge politics. 

I'm sure the infection rate is indeed much higher than we know. 

 

Yes, things have been dramatic in Italy, the worst affected country of all, over 10000 people have died.

 

And yet Italy has by far the strictest social distancing rules of any country on earth.

 

What does that tell you?

Edited March 29, 2020 by Logosone

[Tagged]

6 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Your analysis is wrong, Tagged.

 

As you rightly say identified cases does not equal actual cases. So how can you make a statement about the death rate when you have no accurate number of actual cases?

 

The best you can do is estimate, but if you do so, you should do so correctly. The UK has said that for every death there 1000 cases. So using this multiplier in Sweden there could be 105,000 cases, there's probably more, but lets take this conservative estimate. That would mean Sweden has a death rate of 0.1%.

 

Rinse and repeat for Norway, same result. 23000 cases and 0.1% death rate. 

 

Of course Norway, thanks to North Sea Oil, is a more affluent country than Sweden, and also half the size. The reason for the lower deaths is therefore most likely A) Norway has fewer cases and B) It has less people sick in its health service and better resources to allocate to the critically ill Covid19 patients than Sweden.

Still simple math! Deathrate against population! Simple as that! They have 5 times more death, double population right. Almost Complete lock down save lives and capacity in hospitals, and human resourches! 
 

 

[Logosone]

18 minutes ago, Tagged said:

The common flue strain, we have some immunity against and also an yearly vaccine for those who is at risk, and also for those who working with people. 
 

Corona, we do not have a vaccine against when next generation strain is arriving! 
 

simple math for most! 

 

There is no "common flu strain". There are many different influenza viruses. There are many different influenza vaccines.

 

This is because influenza is a type of virus which mutates more frequently than coronaviruses. Covid19 has very few mutations, most of which have been inconsequential.

 

Obviously we are not immune against many influenza strains, hence the need for vaccines in the first place.

 

The same approach will be taken with Covid19, there will be vaccine, and after a long time if a mutation requires there will be another.

 

Remember some viral diseases like smallpox have been completely eradicated with vaccine. It never mutated and returned.

 

So not so simple maths!

[Logosone]

12 minutes ago, Tagged said:

Still simple math! Deathrate against population! Simple as that! They have 5 times more death, double population right. Almost Complete lock down save lives and capacity in hospitals, and human resourches! 
 

 

Well, no, because you attribute the lower death figure to complete lockdown. More likely the cause for the lower death figure is that A) Norway has fewer cases and B) as there are less people in its hospitals it can devote more resources to saving critical Covid19 cases.

 

Why would you automatically attribute the lockdown as the causative factor in the less deaths? What is your evidence for this?

Edited March 29, 2020 by Logosone

[christophe75]

Lastest details from the french government (for march 25th)

 

1331 deaths (in hospitals) (yesterday it was 2314)

 

86 % of them were older than 70 years.

 

It matches perfectly the data from Italy.

 

Other info : the french gvt will start to publish "next week" the mortality numbers, at local (département), provincial (région) and national levels, "all causes" (in France, "état civil" administration issues and collects the birth and death certificates, then those data are agregated by INSEE).

 

This is very important.

 

At last, we will be able to see, clearly, if the virus has any effect on the national level (we need to repeat that to focus on 1 hospital, 1 small city, 1 area etc... like people do in Italy is perfectly pointless).

 

To assess correctly the threat, we need to look at death number (all causes), and do comparisons with previous periods.

 

Right now, it's obvious, the number of "virus deaths" are grotesque at national level, and per year (per year more than 600 000 people die in France... So 2314, even if we extrapolate on 12 months = 27000... is not much... Plus, how many of those old 27000 victims would have died anyway during the year ?).

 

Against hysteria, insanity... we need hard data and we have to put those hard data into perspective.

 

This is the only cure we need right now.

[marqus12]

18 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes, things have been dramatic in Italy, the worst affected country of all, over 10000 people have died.

 

And yet Italy has by far the strictest social distancing rules of any country on earth.

 

What does that tell you?

Italy after Greece is Europe's most indebted country.
Italians have always had good directors.

[Logosone]

20 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

How I see this going forward is that one of three things will occur.

 

1.  The number of infections and deaths will continue to grow in the next month or two, in which case this will be the new norm for the next year or so. Because no Govt will take the risk to shut snctions down, and risk this virus ramping back up.

 

2.  The number of infections and deaths will slow and decrease in the next month or two, in which case these impositions will be slowly eased and pulled back - while keeping an eye on the numbers.  Because all Govts want to get to normal, but they want to be able to justify easing the sanctions - just in case the virus ramps back up.

 

3 A.  The number of infections and deaths will slow and decrease in the next month or two, in some countries and not in others.  In which case these snactions will be slowly eased and pulled back in some countries - while keeping an eye on the numbers and holding the ban on international travel in place, with a few exceptions for those certified as Covid19 free. 

 

3 B. The number of infections and deaths will continue to grow in the next month or two in some countries, in which case this will be the new norm for them for the next year or so. Because no Govt will take the risk to shut the sanctions down, and risk this virus ramping back up - and all international travel bans will remain in place.

 

It's in the Ferguson paper.

 

This is really one of the most fundamental problems with social distancing. Ferguson claims in the paper that this policy has to be in place for 18 months or until a vaccine come for it to be effective.

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

As CornishCarlos has pointed out it will be impossible to maintain such a long period of isolation.

 

Even in China the people of Wuhan have yesterday started rioting and throwing police cars over. They've had enough.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8162773/Chinas-coronavirus-epicentre-Wuhan-lifts-lockdown-travel-restrictions-time-two-months.html

[Logosone]

9 minutes ago, marqus12 said:

Italy after Greece is Europe's most indebted country.
Italians have always had good directors.

Italy was just unlucky. It was the first country hit in Europe. This is because its a tourist destination and two Chinese tourists ignited the pandemic in Italy. So Italy did not benefit from observing first, it was thrown right in at the deep end. Their health system in the north is actually very good, but they also did not have enough resources. Only 5000 icu beds, not much more than the UK. 

 

Because it was the first country it is further ahead in the curve. Like Prof Wieler said, at the end the victims will be in the tens of thousands in every major Europe country, as Christophe said as well.

 

Italians are not stupid. They were unlucky. In two or three weeks when we have the UK figures Italy may not look so bad. Germany also should have more victims. 

 

 

[spidermike007]

18 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Social distancing is going the least of our concerns during the incoming economic depression.

 

What is most likely here to stay is the state of emergency, not for pandemic reason, but for economic reason.

 

Forget social distancing, it will soon be replaced with social despair...

Absolutely spot on. This economic shutdown is going to be 700 times worse than the virus. People will starve to death. Especially in places like India, with over 500 million people existing on $2-5 a day. Is that bailout going to really help them? And if so, for how long? There is something else at stake here. We are not seeing the full picture. I am beginning to believe this is not what it appears, on any level. 

[JHolmesJr]

4 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Absolutely spot on. This economic shutdown is going to be 700 times worse than the virus. People will starve to death. Especially in places like India, with over 500 million people existing on $2-5 a day. Is that bailout going to really help them? And if so, for how long? There is something else at stake here. We are not seeing the full picture. I am beginning to believe this is not what it appears, on any level. 

 

stop spreading panic.

[Brunolem]

19 minutes ago, christophe75 said:

Lastest details from the french government (for march 25th)

 

1331 deaths (in hospitals) (yesterday it was 2314)

 

86 % of them were older than 70 years.

 

It matches perfectly the data from Italy.

 

Other info : the french gvt will start to publish "next week" the mortality numbers, at local (département), provincial (région) and national levels, "all causes" (in France, "état civil" administration issues and collects the birth and death certificates, then those data are agregated by INSEE).

 

This is very important.

 

At last, we will be able to see, clearly, if the virus has any effect on the national level (we need to repeat that to focus on 1 hospital, 1 small city, 1 area etc... like people do in Italy is perfectly pointless).

 

To assess correctly the threat, we need to look at death number (all causes), and do comparisons with previous periods.

 

Right now, it's obvious, the number of "virus deaths" are grotesque at national level, and per year (per year more than 600 000 people die in France... So 2314, even if we extrapolate on 12 months = 27000... is not much... Plus, how many of those old 27000 victims would have died anyway during the year ?).

 

Against hysteria, insanity... we need hard data and we have to put those hard data into perspective.

 

This is the only cure we need right now.

Brilliant!!!

 

This is exactly what is needed: to put things in perspective!

 

Branding numbers out of context is meaningless.

 

Listening to many, it would seem as if the coronavirus had become the ONLY cause of death in the world.

 

People who have no idea of the usual numbers of deaths, because it is not exactly a subject of everyday attention, are sent into panic because 1,000 have died here and 2,000 have died there...but compared with what?