If we keep up the good work of self-islolating we can beat this thing a lot quicker so don't be an idiot.

For the first time in history you can save humanity by sitting at home and doing nothing so ...

DON'T <deleted> IT UP!

Edited March 28, 20206 yr by metisdead
8.) You will not post disruptive or inflammatory messages, vulgarities, obscenities or profanities.

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

This remains an incredibly low number, considering the millions of Chinese people who were crowded about in Thailand in January. And if those people were infected, and mixing with the general population, and if we were going to see an explosion in cases, like alot of fear mongering officials are saying, it would have happened already. Sorry to disappoint. But, it will not grow to alarming numbers here. I anticipate it leveling off at 5,000 cases or less. Granted, I could be wrong. This is simply my personal estimate, partly based on some evidence that heat seems to decimate this virus, and the fact that it seems to thrive in temperatures of 35-67 degrees F. There is some science to back up this assertion. If this was going to become an alarming situation, it would have happened already. 100 new cases a day is nothing. We are seeing 10,000 plus in the US.

 

 

There were 5,000 Thais who came back from S. Korea in December/January - of which 1,113 'disappeared':
As you say, there were 1 million Chinese here for the Chinese New Year and Tet:
The last I heard, several weeks ago, there were 6,000 suffering from "viral flu":

I rather think the gov. has NO idea at all how many tens of thousands of cases there now are.
Not to mention they - once again - have put another gag order on anyone publishing or recording figures. But it's all 100% under control.
Until it erupts like wildfire in a few week's time.

Edited March 28, 20206 yr by robsamui

1 hour ago, AlexRich said:

Still beats three brain cells.

You should know.

Thailand has a restricted criteria for testing! Only those who test positive are recorded.

i guess there are many who like Boris Johnson have a temperature and sore throat but are not tested and are hopefully isolating?

Time will tell, let’s all stay the f...k home and see in the coming weeks!

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.  

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

19 minutes ago, robsamui said:

There were 5,000 Thais who came back from S. Korea in December/January - of which 1,113 'disappeared':
As you say, there were 1 million Chinese here for the Chinese New Year and Tet:
The last I heard, several weeks ago, there were 6,000 suffering from "viral flu":

I rather think the gov. has NO idea at all how many tens of thousands of cases there now are.
Not to mention they - once again - have put another gag order on anyone publishing or recording figures. But it's all 100% under control.
Until it erupts like wildfire in a few week's time.

And why would it errupt in a few weeks? Was the virus hiding the past three months? 

2 minutes ago, AussieinThaiJim said:

Thailand has a restricted criteria for testing! Only those who test positive are recorded.

i guess there are many who like Boris Johnson have a temperature and sore throat but are not tested and are hopefully isolating?

Time will tell, let’s all stay the f...k home and see in the coming weeks!

Your first phrase is important as we all try to guess (best we can do) at the severity of the infections in Thailand. A previous post in this thread explained how very, very narrow the factors must be for someone to get tested in Thailand. That filter is certainly making the reported cases extremely understated. Does that mean that we necessarily have an out of control problem here? Hard to tell. I want to think that it's not that bad and won't get too bad here. But, I also think that limiting those tested with the aforementioned criteria makes us fly blind.

3 hours ago, humbug said:

Just to give an example from known numbers from the free societies from past viruses:

 

Chinese swine flu 2009-2010, in the US it lightly infected more than 50 million, most never knew, 280,000 were hospitalized and 12,000 died, that’s the swine flu in one country, if the Wuhan virus is more virile, then many millions of people would be lightly infected in each country and not even know, some will be severe and need hospital treatment, and some will die, same as the Chinese swine flu

 

This idea that a few are being infected every day is nuts, this land had its first public known infection on Jan 13th, maybe others infected far earlier, that patient was from Wuhan, China, a 63 year old tourist, for 2-3 months, very little was done, and very little testing,

 

the only way it goes to post-Wuhan virus panic, is when people want to earn money and work, and think, Sod it, few people die, it’s a waste of time these lockdowns, and start to rumble, revolt wise, and authorities panic, and allow post-Wuhan virus way of life, and accept herd immunity, as vaccines are a long way off, that way hospitals can be better prepared for extra severe patients, most people have learned to be responsible, and greater amounts of testing,

being with these gangsters in charge, you never know, but they will start to panic too, about people’s reactions, forced not to earn money 

Looks like any country has "gangsters in charge" nowerdays...

1 hour ago, realfunster said:

 

Your statement ‘China is now experiencing a second wave’ bears zero correlation to the article you linked to....

 

Did you even bother to read the article realfunster, I think you missed this if you did:

 

China, the former epicenter of the outbreak, has seen a much lower rate of new infections this month than it did in January and February. However, most of the people testing positive had traveled overseas or had contact with someone who did.

In recent weeks, the country has reported dozens of new cases each day, down from thousands of new infections on most days of February.

My personal life is only a little affected: I cannot go to restaurants, bars, massage, I cannot play golf or even go to the driving range, which becomes boring after a week. I can handle that, no problem.

 

Thanks god (ore whoever) that Thailands infection rates are very low. With 106 daily new cases of infection and a total of 6 deads, a real thread to the country is simply not existing. Every year, there are about 900'000 people who pass away. Every month, there are about 2'000 people who die on the streets. As long as there are not tenthousends of deads of this virus, it is statistically irrelevant.

 

I approve some measures taken to hold the spread of the virus back, but the total lockdown is overshooting the problem.

 

What I really am concerned about is the economy and the endless spending by the countrys. All the signs point to a huge and possible too long contraction of the economy and an unseen growth of debt by states, companies and private persons. The damage caused to all of us is unprecedented.

I don’t believe any of these numbers the Thai government is giving TIT

17 minutes ago, 0815 said:

Looks like any country has "gangsters in charge" nowerdays...

These gangster regimes in SE asia are quite different to the free societies,

 

their problem will be, how to keep people not earning for more weeks, without reacting/revolting, too difficult, even for these anti-human rights gangsters, sooner or later, they will have to loosen the  lockdowns and accept ‘herd immunity’, It has to be close for these countries

 

Jan 13th first reported case, let’s say Dec, first unreported cases on this land, over 3 months, you are looking at millions of people who have very light symptoms, and don’t even realize anything is wrong, once you get to 50% to 80% of population depending on which study you read, ‘herd immunity’ kicks in

 

that still means, extra icu beds, more testing, better messaging on how to be more responsible, knowing many won’t listen

In my opinion, people are only getting tested when they become sick enough to go to a hospital.  The exceptions to that are probably rare. 

46 minutes ago, Gold Star said:

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.  

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

 

Huh....the infection...including the measures taken to stop its spread, have been devastating.

Not a high consequence....jeez.

Thailand's greed for the RMB (and other foreign currencies) is just beginning to show its ugly face!

In the meantime - all of Northern Thailand is burning but

ZERO news on that.  CM Air Quality is again Worst in the WORLD.

6 other Northern Provinces are in the top 10 Globally.

Let's get Data on the Respiratory Death Rate of THAT.

5 hours ago, Guderian said:

Kind of suspicious that it's been hovering around the hundred new cases mark every day for the last four or five days.

Still, a lot better than doubling every two or three days, thank Buddha.

You still have to test to have infections.

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

This remains an incredibly low number, considering the millions of Chinese people who were crowded about in Thailand in January. And if those people were infected, and mixing with the general population, and if we were going to see an explosion in cases, like alot of fear mongering officials are saying, it would have happened already. Sorry to disappoint. But, it will not grow to alarming numbers here. I anticipate it leveling off at 5,000 cases or less. Granted, I could be wrong. This is simply my personal estimate, partly based on some evidence that heat seems to decimate this virus, and the fact that it seems to thrive in temperatures of 35-67 degrees F. There is some science to back up this assertion. If this was going to become an alarming situation, it would have happened already. 100 new cases a day is nothing. We are seeing 10,000 plus in the US.

 

 

i heard that the pollution also will hinder the virus

5 hours ago, 473geo said:

Well lets see now.......if a virus spread cannot be contained, and is rising at a rate that could be alarming, what would be the best way to give the impression a government was in full control, while the prevention methods suggest paddling like fleeing duck?

 

If you're looking for an example of a complete incompetent who is focused only on creating the erroneous impression that he gives a damn and is doing  great job, you need look no further than Uncle Donny. He could give lessons to Uncle Too.

 

Not that Uncle Too needs lessons, he doesn't need to have the public on his side, he has more 'important' people on his side, watching his six.

1 hour ago, SaamBaht said:

It must be the weather here. Even if the government is not testing the masses, you would have ERs all over the country swamped with pneumonia cases if the situation was much worse than what it is. 

With about 1300 hospitals in Thailand blending in a few extra cases every few days over a couple of months would be possible especially if orders are given not to discuss hospital practices.

Coronaviruses are highly temperature sensitive. The cases with other coronaviruses go to almost zero in the summer in northern countries. This 100 cases diagnosed per day in Thailand is more like linear, not exponential. Somebody else commented few days ago that Thailand is currently testing 2000 per day. 

 

South Korea got 2-4 percent hit rate with their mass testing so 100/2000 sounds about right. 

Edited March 28, 20206 yr by Timwin

1 minute ago, FarFlungFalang said:

With about 1300 hospitals in Thailand blending in a few extra cases every few days over a couple of months would be possible especially if orders are given not to discuss hospital practices.

Italy is running over. New York can't handle it. Spain is not putting people on the ventilators anymore, but Thailand is blending in a few extra cases here and there ????

 

This would mean either that they a very capable of handling the situation or that the virus is simply not multiplying here fast. Either way, good news I would say.

2 hours ago, maddermax said:

If we keep up the good work of self-islolating we can beat this thing a lot quicker so don't be an idiot.

For the first time in history you can save humanity by sitting at home and doing nothing so ...

DON'T <deleted> IT UP!

 

If started 10 years ago could we not have saved millions of lives from flu deaths by odopting the same measures which we didn't so why start now are flu victims less worthy?

Just got home from getting some food .cannot believe i see a bar with live music and crowds of Thais partying no social distancing then further up the road another closed in bar belting out live music . no policing to be seen on Samui Only 2 confirmed cases of infection ...now waiting with baited breath for increase in the numbers or are the immuned .   

A post using content from an unapproved YouTube source has been removed.

 

A post using a screenshot from some site has been removed. 

28 minutes ago, Eibot said:

Italy is running over. New York can't handle it. Spain is not putting people on the ventilators anymore, but Thailand is blending in a few extra cases here and there ????

 

This would mean either that they a very capable of handling the situation or that the virus is simply not multiplying here fast. Either way, good news I would say.

If Thailand blended 2 cases of deaths each week over 100 hospitals for 4 weeks that adds up that adds up to 800 deaths easily blended.

Here in the UK, there is a theory that far more people have been infected with the virus than first thought but are only getting mild symptoms. Hence why it is has been downgraded from a high consequential infectious disease as the fatality rate compared to the infection rate is now considered greatly reduced. 
 

My work colleagues’ experiences somewhat support this?  To explain, one of them had been to a gathering at his mates house, one of which and after developing symptoms later tested positive for the virus. A few days later my colleague started developing symptoms and therefore went into self isolation for 2 weeks. Speaking with him on Monday when he returned to work, he is positive that he had it although he was not tested due to the limitations in the UK now on who they are exactly going to test. He described his symptoms as being exactly the same as stated by the varying health organisations and that it was nothing like he had ever experienced before in his 30 odd years. His wife and 2 relatively young children have since also experienced the same symptoms as well as another colleague from his team. 
 

Now I’m no expert but the reading I have done on this matter states that normal temperatures have no real effect on the virus and it is only when temperatures of above 54C are achieved does it really start killing it? Where people have commented about it thriving more in colder countries, this is most probably due to the same reasons as the common flu does and is widely recognised as being due to people spending more time indoors together due to the cold weather, hence increasing the number infected from close contact which then gives more chance of them infecting others when they go about their business? Now whilst some people could say that with Thailand’s warmer climate, people spend less time indoors so that reduces that risk, it is more common for them to have multiple people sleeping in the same room and they are more likely to share food, drinks and cigarettes etc than their western counterparts. Therefore I think that whilst the risk of transmission is reduced by some of their actions, it is increased by others?
 

Regarding the figures given out in Thailand, in my opinion they are far too linear which is not really feasible with something like this and is therefore most probably due to other factors as some here have stated, such as limitations on the amount of people actually tested etc or just simply not wanting to tell the full picture?

 

Looking at infection rates around the globe though, the average is that for every one person infected they will pass it on to another 2.5 people. However I read a report on TV yesterday that stated in Bangkok, they believe the infection rate is more like 3.5 and way above the world average? Now if you do the maths even on the lower world infection average of 2.5 and assuming an average incubation period of 5 days before symptoms start, in just 30 days (6 x 5 days), the total infected from just the approx 100 people declared would be 100 x 2.5^6 = 24,414?

 

This figure being rather alarming when you consider when Thailand’s first infection was declared and somewhat supports the theory that a lot more people have been infected than first thought but are only experiencing mild symptoms?

1 hour ago, mberbae said:

In the meantime - all of Northern Thailand is burning but

ZERO news on that.  CM Air Quality is again Worst in the WORLD.

6 other Northern Provinces are in the top 10 Globally.

Let's get Data on the Respiratory Death Rate of THAT.

And there's an ongoing drought and the country is still being kept hostage by usurpers and and and. Welcome to Thailaaan.

33 minutes ago, ukrules said:

It was also an H1N1 flu back in 1918, as found after analysis. They got samples from buried corpses.

 

The H1N1 for the last century has caused so much destruction, modern day, we still have countries using outdated ways in diets, bushmeat, live animals, Sars virus from civets, Wuhan virus likely from bats, some believe pangolins, latest studies show it has a strong resemblance to bats in Zhoushang, China, then you have nipah virus from India, Ebola virus from Africa

24 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

If Thailand blended 2 cases of deaths each week over 100 hospitals for 4 weeks that adds up that adds up to 800 deaths easily blended.

According to statistics 17% of people with severe symptoms die. So that would mean that around 4700 people should be on the ICU. 

 

Good luck blending 4700 critical people in your health system ???? 

 

The hospitals are not any busier now than during any time off year.