UK coronavirus death toll under 20,000 would be 'good result' - health chief says

[rooster59]

UK coronavirus death toll under 20,000 would be 'good result' - health chief says

By Paul Sandle and Guy Faulconbridge

 

Medical staff at an NHS drive through coronavirus disease (COVID-19) testing facility in the car park of Chessington World of Adventures as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues, Chessington, Britain, March 28, 2020. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls

 

LONDON (Reuters) - The United Kingdom will do well if it manages to keep the coronavirus death toll below 20,000, a senior health official said on Saturday after the deadliest day so far of the outbreak saw the number of fatalities rise to more than 1,000.

 

Stephen Powis, the medical director of National Health Service England, warned the public against complacency and said everyone had to play their part in hindering the spread of the virus.

 

The number of confirmed cases stood at 17,089 on Saturday morning. The death toll rose by 260 in a day to 1,019, the seventh highest toll in the world behind Italy, Spain, China, Iran, France and the United States.

 

When asked if Britain was on the same trajectory as Italy, where the death toll has passed 9,000, Powis said that if the public adhered to the nationwide lockdown the total toll could be kept below 20,000.

 

"If it is less than 20,000... that would be a good result though every death is a tragedy, but we should not be complacent about that," he said at a news conference in Downing Street.

 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson became the first leader of a major power to announce a positive test result for coronavirus on Friday. He is self-isolating in Downing Street but still leading the UK response to the crisis.

 

Britain is bracing for the epidemic to peak in the coming weeks, and is building field hospitals in London, Birmingham, Manchester and Cardiff to bolster its state-run National Health Service (NHS).

 

The government, which had been criticised by some doctors and nurses for not providing them with enough protective gear and testing kits, said on Friday it was introducing a much bigger testing regime, with checks for health workers in England.

 

Frontline medical staff in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are already being tested.

 

CORONAVIRUS IN GOVERNMENT

 

As the British government urged the public to stay indoors, the virus struck at Downing Street itself. Besides Johnson, health minister Matt Hancock has also tested positive and chief medical adviser Chris Whitty is self-isolating with symptoms.

 

The minister for Scotland, Alister Jack, said on Saturday he had developed a temperature and a cough in the past 24 hours and was now working from home in isolation. He has not been tested for coronavirus.

 

Jack spoke in the House of Commons on Wednesday, immediately before Johnson appeared at the weekly Prime Minister's Questions session, during which Jack was seated on the government bench behind Johnson.

 

Efforts were under way to keep building up the NHS's ability to cope.

 

Hospitals have been rushing to increase intensive care capacity, including by turning operating theatres and recovery areas into beds for critically ill patients.

 

"At the moment, I am confident the capacity is there," Powis said. "We have not reached capacity."

 

A drive-through coronavirus testing facility for health workers has begun operating in the car park of the Chessington World of Adventures theme park near London.

 

Health workers, who remain in their cars, are tested by nurses who carry out swabs in the nose and mouth through the windows.

 

(Reporting by Estelle Shirbon, Paul Sandle and Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Giles Elgood and Frances Kerry)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-03-29

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

 

 

[natway09]

Another wake up call for Thailand.

Open up areas like conference & exhibition centres & prepare them for patients 

to leave some hospitals free of the virus.

If all the hospitals are contaminated (very few reverse pressure rooms ) 

the country will experience death tolls in excess of the projected in the UK.

 

[Basil B]

At the present rate we will surpass 20,000 by April 10...

 

Hopefully the current measures will reduce the rate of climb dramatically, but it probably will be mid week before we see the numbers of new cases drop and next weekend when see the decline of deaths per day, but the problem is how long can we keep the shut down going before more people start to break the rules.

[sawadee1947]

4 minutes ago, Basil B said:

At the present rate we will surpass 20,000 by April 10...

 

Hopefully the current measures will reduce the rate of climb dramatically, but it probably will be mid week before we see the numbers of new cases drop and next weekend when see the decline of deaths per day, but the problem is how long can we keep the shut down going before more people start to break the rules.

the problem is how long can we keep the shut down going before more people start to break the rules........

 

Depends how much you love life ????

[timendres]

11 minutes ago, Basil B said:

At the present rate we will surpass 20,000 by April 10...

 

Hopefully the current measures will reduce the rate of climb dramatically, but it probably will be mid week before we see the numbers of new cases drop and next weekend when see the decline of deaths per day, but the problem is how long can we keep the shut down going before more people start to break the rules.

You expect to see 20,000 dead by April 10th?

[Basil B]

1 hour ago, timendres said:

You expect to see 20,000 dead by April 10th?

Yes, at the current rate of increase per day running at over 25% increase on the previous day. 

Yesterday was 34% increase on Friday, my modeling is based on 25%.

Date		Deaths UK		Per Day
Wed 25 Mar 20		475	Actual
Thu 26 Mar 20		578	Actual	103
Fri 27 Mar 20		759	Actual	181
Sat 28 Mar 20		1,019	Actual	260
Sun 29 Mar 20		1,274	Projected	255
Mon 30 Mar 20		1,592	Projected	318
Tue 31 Mar 20		1,990	Projected	398
Wed 1 Apr 20		2,488	Projected	498
Thu 2 Apr 20		3,110	Projected	622
Fri 3 Apr 20		3,887	Projected	777
Sat 4 Apr 20		4,859	Projected	972
Sun 5 Apr 20		6,074	Projected	1,215
Mon 6 Apr 20		7,592	Projected	1,518
Tue 7 Apr 20		9,490	Projected	1,898
Wed 8 Apr 20		11,863	Projected	2,373
Thu 9 Apr 20		14,828	Projected	2,966
Fri 10 Apr 20		18,536	Projected	3,707
Sat 11 Apr 20		23,169	Projected	4,634

 

Actually I do not expect to see 20,000 dead in the UK by the 10th April but all that is going to happen is it slows down due to the shutdown but it will just keep going until most of us are immune to it.

 

Edit in:

just to note the figures I get are for the day before and now seems they only count those who were "Hospitalised" so those who die at home or on on the way to hospital are not counted.

twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1243901924786790400

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Basil B

[welshguy]

2 hours ago, sawadee1947 said:

the problem is how long can we keep the shut down going before more people start to break the rules........

 

Depends how much you love life ????

Personally I love life!

 

However, in the U.K. (at least where I am) there are still a fair few people "out and about"...madness...sheer madness.....

 

Something needs to be done...but nothing in place to "stop them"...really..

 

Ive "heard" cses of cars/people being stopped and asking them where they are going...not personally seen anything myself though.

 

Im still in work...i drive a train....its meant to be for "key workers and essential travel only"......ive seen some get on trains, with flip flops, bikes, kids in prams etc.......crazy! 

 

As for "enforcing" "essential journeys"..thats a no go...the U.K. is too awash with bleating people gong on about "huma rights this that the other blah blah blah!"!!

 

Rant over!

[3NUMBAS]

dont use banknotes and coins is the latest plea ..use contact less only

[3NUMBAS]

the infected now were infected before the distance rule came into effect ..so it may have happened in a queue for food stocks

[White Christmas13]

13 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

dont use banknotes and coins is the latest plea ..use contact less only

a lot of old people don't have credit or debit cards how are they going to live?

[sawadee1947]

1 hour ago, welshguy said:

Personally I love life!

 

However, in the U.K. (at least where I am) there are still a fair few people "out and about"...madness...sheer madness.....

 

Something needs to be done...but nothing in place to "stop them"...really..

 

Ive "heard" cses of cars/people being stopped and asking them where they are going...not personally seen anything myself though.

 

Im still in work...i drive a train....its meant to be for "key workers and essential travel only"......ive seen some get on trains, with flip flops, bikes, kids in prams etc.......crazy! 

 

As for "enforcing" "essential journeys"..thats a no go...the U.K. is too awash with bleating people gong on about "huma rights this that the other blah blah blah!"!!

 

Rant over!

At the end it's like a selection. The rich will survive because of better education or advisers. No need to work. Just order what you need. Enjoying the time in a beautiful garden and house. ????

[timendres]

2 hours ago, Basil B said:

Actually I do not expect to see 20,000 dead in the UK by the 10th April but all that is going to happen is it slows down due to the shutdown but it will just keep going until most of us are immune to it.

Ah! I thought you were talking about here in Thailand. That is why I was surprised.

[Basil B]

1 hour ago, White Christmas13 said:

a lot of old people don't have credit or debit cards how are they going to live?

In the real world (UK), very few do not have any credit  or debit cards, they need them to draw their pensions.l

[Basil B]

10 minutes ago, timendres said:

Ah! I thought you were talking about here in Thailand. That is why I was surprised.

The headline: "UK coronavirus death toll under 20,000 would be 'good result' - health chief says"

[Yinn]

10 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Stephen Powis, the medical director of National Health Service England, warned the public against complacency and said everyone had to play their part in hindering the spread of the virus.

Stephen should tell Boris the super spreader. Boris went to a coronavirus hospital and shake hands with....

”EVERYONE”!

 

Very proud himself!

 

 

 

 

 

[White Christmas13]

23 minutes ago, Basil B said:

In the real world (UK), very few do not have any credit  or debit cards, they need them to draw their pensions.l

well it might be correct in the UK but in OZ we get our pension credited in

to our bank account and yes i know what you mean

[RickBradford]

Just for perspective, an average of 17,000 people in the UK die each year of seasonal flu. The highest recent year was 2014-15 when the death toll was 28,330.

 

Covid is a danger to old people, for sure, but it is not some completely new apocalypse.

[Yinn]

15 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

Just for perspective, an average of 17,000 people in the UK die each year of seasonal flu. The highest recent year was 2014-15 when the death toll was 28,330.

 

Covid is a danger to old people, for sure, but it is not some completely new apocalypse.

The UK coronavirus death toll has risen by 209 in 24 hours from 1,019 to 1,228. A total of 127,737 people have now been tested for coronavirus, with 19,522 positive results.

Edge Health, a UK health care data analysis company, revealed that while the official figure of coronavirus cases stood at 10,000 on March 26, the company's estimated true figure for infections in the UK was 1,614,505.

 

With widespread testing not yet available in Britain and swabs only being given to those in hospital and some NHS critical care staff, there could be thousands who have COVID-19 and are not aware of it, the study suggests.

 

Those with milder symptoms who are not admitted to hospital are also not accounted for in official figures. 

[thaibeachlovers]

I'd like to know how many died after being ventilated, and how many were just kept on a ward because too old/ too ill etc, and how many never made it to hospital. I hope they are not using normal flue deaths to inflate the Corona total.

[thaibeachlovers]

31 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

Just for perspective, an average of 17,000 people in the UK die each year of seasonal flu. The highest recent year was 2014-15 when the death toll was 28,330.

 

Covid is a danger to old people, for sure, but it is not some completely new apocalypse.

There are over 7 billion people on the planet. It will have to kill a lot more than a few thousand to be really apocalyptic. Millions, apparently, died of the Spanish flue and life went on after. I doubt they locked everyone down then.

[Basil B]

1 hour ago, White Christmas13 said:

well it might be correct in the UK but in OZ we get our pension credited in

to our bank account and yes i know what you mean

It is immaterial anyway, AFASIK anyone over the age of 70 is deemed at risk in the UK and must stay home, so they will not be able to get any money and will starve to death if COVID-19 does not get them first. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Basil B

[timendres]

1 hour ago, Basil B said:

The headline: "UK coronavirus death toll under 20,000 would be 'good result' - health chief says"

Of course. Your use of "we will surpass" threw me, since I am here in TH. ^_^

I now wonder if symptoms of COVID-19 will include reduced reading comprehension and limited attention spans.

[URMySunshine]

It will come as no surprise that we will be paying for this for years to come. Probably something like Greece austerity ++ and rising prices, inflation and falling spending power. There will huge loan defaults and mortgage delinquency and the banks will need to be bailed out again with QE almost to the moon.  Paradoxically this could mean more assets price inflation as the value of money is eroded and wealth looks for assets rather than fiat. As for the exchange rate vs thai baht. That all depends whether the army can keep the lid on things which if they don't bail out the poor and soon could be the big unknown.

 

UK stability will keep the Uk attractive to international investors so there may be yet another mini boon for the wealthy and London and SE property market holding up. As for the red wall - anyone's guess if the working class find their standard of living taking a dive compared to the wealthy then it might go back red and deep red. One thing's for sure there will be no going back to normal that boat has well and truly sailed.

 

But one thing is clear the Uk as a nation has put public health and the protection of its people in the crisis at the center of policy and for that it should be applauded. 

 

Britain faces years of austerity after government's massive coronavirus bailouts amid fears of 2.75million jobless by June and a 10% hit to GDP

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164767/Michael-Gove-hints-looming-austerity-massive-coronavirus-bailouts.html

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_austerity_packages

Edited March 29, 2020 by URMySunshine

[Stargeezr]

I wonder how the refugees in Greece and other parts of the world have been doing?

  I have not heard as much news about them as of late.  A bit off topic,  but was curious.

I hope the UK is able to keep their deaths down, but as always, it is up to how

serious the people treat this virus, and stay home, or at least apart from

others as much as possible.

Geezer

 

[mrfill]

1 hour ago, URMySunshine said:

But one thing is clear the Uk as a nation has put public health and the protection of its people in the crisis at the center of policy and for that it should be applauded. 

 

Britain faces years of austerity after government's massive coronavirus bailouts amid fears of 2.75million jobless by June and a 10% hit to GDP

 

 

The UK has just had 10 years of austerity which has run down the Health Service to the extent that it cannot cope. And in the last 4 years we have had a lot of instability because of the brexit nonsense which has not been helpful.

The only good that come out of this would be if the non-doms and corporates get to pay a fair amount of tax or at least greater than zero. Public health has only just suddenly become ever so important to the politicians but it has been mostly hot air. We need 20000 ventilators and have 4000 - the government proudly announced today that a further 4000 have been acquired so we are 60% short. Testing is only for those in hospital showing symptoms (with notable exceptions for politicians and the rich and famous) and we hope to reach 25000/day 'within weeks'. Weeks????

[URMySunshine]

5 hours ago, RickBradford said:

Just for perspective, an average of 17,000 people in the UK die each year of seasonal flu. The highest recent year was 2014-15 when the death toll was 28,330.

 

Covid is a danger to old people, for sure, but it is not some completely new apocalypse.

The modelling suggest 250,000 without intervention - so 10x more than the worse flu season and overwhelm all healthcare facilities in short order. 

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/

[URMySunshine]

11 minutes ago, mrfill said:

The UK has just had 10 years of austerity which has run down the Health Service to the extent that it cannot cope. And in the last 4 years we have had a lot of instability because of the brexit nonsense which has not been helpful.

The only good that come out of this would be if the non-doms and corporates get to pay a fair amount of tax or at least greater than zero. Public health has only just suddenly become ever so important to the politicians but it has been mostly hot air. We need 20000 ventilators and have 4000 - the government proudly announced today that a further 4000 have been acquired so we are 60% short. Testing is only for those in hospital showing symptoms (with notable exceptions for politicians and the rich and famous) and we hope to reach 25000/day 'within weeks'. Weeks????

The average Brit will be a full blown virtual statist  commie when this has runs its course and the government are getting us ready for potentially 6 months of disruption. The rich will have pretty much nowhere to run either - they will need a soaking. 

[GordyS]

20,000 + will die but only 100 will be atrributed to the virus.

Therefore the junta and it's sycophant fans will be able to give themselves a good old pat on the back

[GordyS]

28 minutes ago, mrfill said:

The UK has just had 10 years of austerity which has run down the Health Service to the extent that it cannot cope. And in the last 4 years we have had a lot of instability because of the brexit nonsense which has not been helpful.

The only good that come out of this would be if the non-doms and corporates get to pay a fair amount of tax or at least greater than zero. Public health has only just suddenly become ever so important to the politicians but it has been mostly hot air. We need 20000 ventilators and have 4000 - the government proudly announced today that a further 4000 have been acquired so we are 60% short. Testing is only for those in hospital showing symptoms (with notable exceptions for politicians and the rich and famous) and we hope to reach 25000/day 'within weeks'. Weeks????

Utter guff, the UK has well over 10,000 ventilators and that is suffice normally

The NHS is not under funded, the budget is 139,000,000,000 pounds

To put that into context it would take you 4,448 years to count to that amount, assuming you could say each number in one second!

The blame lies solely on China.

They lied about the virus and then lied about how many had died and been infected

No govt in the world would worry about 3000 dying in a population of 1.4 billion and therefore adequate provisions weren't put in place

Hundreds of thousands if not millions have died in China but they covered it up and now the rest of the world has to suffer

If the world had know the magnitude of Chinese deaths they would have locked down much quicker and started production on more PPE equipment, ventilators etc

[Basil B]

1 hour ago, mrfill said:

The UK has just had 10 years of austerity which has run down the Health Service to the extent that it cannot cope. And in the last 4 years we have had a lot of instability because of the brexit nonsense which has not been helpful.

The only good that come out of this would be if the non-doms and corporates get to pay a fair amount of tax or at least greater than zero. Public health has only just suddenly become ever so important to the politicians but it has been mostly hot air. We need 20000 ventilators and have 4000 - the government proudly announced today that a further 4000 have been acquired so we are 60% short. Testing is only for those in hospital showing symptoms (with notable exceptions for politicians and the rich and famous) and we hope to reach 25000/day 'within weeks'. Weeks????

Actually they have started to test NHS workers.

 

Quote

Coronavirus: Testing rolled out for frontline NHS staff

Frontline hospital staff in England are starting to be tested to see whether they have coronavirus.

Workers with symptoms and those who live with people who have symptoms will be checked - starting with hundreds of critical care doctors and nurses.

Tests for A&E staff, paramedics and GPs are expected to follow, and later social care staff will be tested.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52072568