Thailand reports 143 new COVID-19 cases, 1 death

[ukrules]

31 minutes ago, Eibot said:

Do you see my point?

Winter is coming for the southern hemisphere.

[Eibot]

14 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

There was no mention of deaths in your post, simply the number of cases.

Stop digging that hole....you are only getting deeper.

Yes, you are saying the numbers are doubling daily in Australia. Which is simply not true. 

[DrTuner]

Ok so the data source for daily tests/pending/etc is https://data.go.th/en/dataset/covid-19-daily

And the new visualization is https://covid19.th-stat.com/

 

Anybody can take the data and do their own visualizations. This should have been the level of transparency from day 1. At least it's there now.

 

The government body publishing this is https://data.go.th/en/ , 'Open Government Data of Thailand'.

 

Naturally it could still be a case of GIGO: Garbage In, Garbage Out. If somebody is keeping their foot on the diagnostics pipeline or using PUI admission criteria tailor made to produce the results they want, these figures mean very little.

Edited March 29, 2020 by DrTuner

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

6 minutes ago, jimn said:

Nonsence, so when the figures stay in the 100's and not double evey day you will know you are wrong. By your reckoning cases will be 286 tomorrow, 572 on Tuesday and over a 1,000 on Wednesday. Dont you see how crazy your comment is?

 

The "reported" numbers might grow like that if the government was testing and reporting test results for all the PUI cases that are coming thru the door.... But as the stats presented above clearly show, they're only reporting out a fraction of the PUI cases that are getting presented. There's a constraint in the system somewhere, and we simply don't know what that is.

 

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Trujillo]

Let me post this again, but mind you, at the time there were SIX deaths and now it has SKYROCKETED to SEVEN! 

 

Probably better to say that as of now, 0.0018 percent of the population here (in Thailand) has been infected, with 0.000009 percent of the population dying from the virus. 

 

By the way, in the UK: "... two-thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months would most likely have died this year from other causes."

 

Picking up a pattern here? 

[ukrules]

12 minutes ago, rabas said:

These are all based on genetic code not antibodies.

Also cheap and cheerful 15 minute test at home antibody blood tests will be available very soon.

 

We would be able to get them as well if they hadn't shut down the international mail systems.

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, Trujillo said:

Picking up a pattern here? 

Yeah. There's a pattern of posters that are ok with letting the elderly croak in favor of protecting the economy. Interesting exercise in human ethics.

Edited March 29, 2020 by DrTuner

[Eibot]

4 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Winter is coming for the southern hemisphere.

The drop in temperature will certainly mean that the transmittable capabilities of Covid-19 increases. I think it will be good to monitor it closely, especially in the northern region of Thailand. The range you don't seem to want to drop under is 23 degrees Celsius. Luckily Thailand stays fairly warm throughout the year but it's definitely something to be wary off. 

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Also cheap and cheerful 15 minute test at home antibody blood tests will be available very soon.

Already are if you want some, not sure about how Thai customs would react to them incoming: http://www.bluesoleil.com/products/H0011202003240001.html

[ukrules]

2 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The "reported" numbers might grow like that if the government was testing and reporting test results for all the PUI cases that are coming thru the door.... But as the stats presented above clearly show, they're only reporting out a fraction of the PUI cases that are getting presented. There's a constraint in the system somewhere, and we simply don't know what that is.

 

 

Agreed, the numbers are far higher than are reported, everywhere, even in places doing 10,000 and up test per day.

 

The more you test the more you find. I guess like most countries they're constrained by the number of tests they can do each day, this is the only limit to the number of infections detected. Why waste a test on someone with a mild fever when there's other people with severe respiratory issues who need the same test.

 

Even then the test doesn't really tell you anything, it just gives confirmation of the suspicion, the treatment won't change at all.

 

I reckon the antibody tests will reveal that a lot more people have had this virus than anyone expected, orders of magnitudes of difference. It would be nice to know if you're had it or not but in truth once contact tracing stops - it doesn't really matter.

[ukrules]

1 minute ago, DrTuner said:

Already are if you want some, not sure about how Thai customs would react to them incoming: http://www.bluesoleil.com/products/H0011202003240001.html

They shut down the international post system already - just to make sure nobody can order anything!

[rabas]

Just now, Eibot said:

The drop in temperature will certainly mean that the transmittable capabilities of Covid-19 increases. I think it will be good to monitor it closely, especially in the northern region of Thailand. The range you don't seem to want to drop under is 23 degrees Celsius. Luckily Thailand stays fairly warm throughout the year but it's definitely something to be wary off. 

Thailand's flu season is in the warm rainy season starting in a month or so. Your wife would know about that.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

7 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Ok so the data source for daily tests/pending/etc is https://data.go.th/en/dataset/covid-19-daily

And the new visualization is https://covid19.th-stat.com/

 

A pretty strong growth rate of confirmed cases, even with the testing constraints:

 

[Trujillo]

"Letting the elderly croak"? How is that? 

You can't totally defend against a virus and at some point you have to understand that things are going -- have gone -- overboard. You can't save everyone. 

Why not ban cars going over 15 miles an hour? That will save thousands of lives. 

 

As I said, most of the old people will die soon of something. This virus pushes many over that edge. No one is suggesting that we want to kill people off; rather, be reasonable in response. What about the seasonal flu? It kills many people every year. Should we hunker down for that too? 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Trujillo
misspelling

[Eibot]

1 minute ago, rabas said:

Thailand's flu season is in the warm rainy season starting in a month or so. Your wife would know about that.

Luckily It's no the flu my wife says. You learn something everyday don't you.

[jimn]

28 minutes ago, 473geo said:

I believe I did say the same in my post - pleased you managed to get that right, and thanks for the confirmation Dr

Good job I didn't just say irritating cough, you might have been overcome with concern ????

Just goes to show posts can be interpreted differently. I took your post to read that you and your family had just recovered from a tickly cough and fever etc ???? nudge nudge wink wink, it was really Covid 19 but nobody counted us.

[Miami007]

5 hours ago, Eibot said:

You can only see.the effects.of social distancing (not much is happening in Thailand) in about 14 days due to the incubation period.

It hasn't been working in Europe or USA 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

7 minutes ago, ukrules said:

They shut down the international post system already - just to make sure nobody can order anything!

 

I think the airmail services have been affected. But not the incoming private courier services like Fed Ex, et al.  I have a FedEx package that was in transit via China over the weekend and is due to arrive here on Monday/tomorrow.

 

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, rabas said:

Thailand's flu season is in the warm rainy season starting in a month or so. Your wife would know about that.

Yes Rabas, just as you say, coming up is the Hot and Humid time of the year, it may be considered winter, but that is not the truth, not winter like at all.....My Aircon runs almost 24/7, but the upside is my skin does not dry-out like it does in the US

[Eibot]

Just now, Miami007 said:

It hasn't been working in Europe or USA 

 

Yes it has. Check hospitalization rate in Italy and new cases. The peak was last week. Upcoming week the peak is to be expected in Spain. 

[ThailandRyan]

10 minutes ago, Eibot said:

The drop in temperature will certainly mean that the transmittable capabilities of Covid-19 increases. I think it will be good to monitor it closely, especially in the northern region of Thailand. The range you don't seem to want to drop under is 23 degrees Celsius. Luckily Thailand stays fairly warm throughout the year but it's definitely something to be wary off. 

Eibot, The winter here in Thailand is during what they call the "high season" starting in November and ending in April.  As we all know, those of us that live here, and this is when places like Chiang Mai get snow or heavy frost on the Mountain tops at the higher elevations. Coming up starting in April is the Rainy Season, which is hot and humid.  This is why a certain individual stated that the virus should blow away during Songkran.......

[rabas]

3 minutes ago, ukrules said:

4 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Already are if you want some, not sure about how Thai customs would react to them incoming: http://www.bluesoleil.com/products/H0011202003240001.html

They shut down the international post system already - just to make sure nobody can order anything!

There is a Thai customs help line number you can call and ask, they are surprisingly responsive.  I would guess a non invasive test would be fine.

 

But ukrules is right, can anything get in? I had 5 items on order from China from early March and so far only one ever got here.  Otherwise I would buy one.

[Eibot]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

Eibot, The winter here in Thailand is during what they call the "high season" starting in November and ending in April.  As we all know, those of us that live here, and this is when places like Chiang Mai get snow or heavy frost on the Mountain tops at the higher elevations. Coming up starting in April is the Rainy Season, which is hot and humid.  This is why a certain individual stated that the virus should blow away during Songkran.......

Well, winter, summer, spring - the importance seems to be humidity, heat and UV. Whatever the season ????

[ThailandRyan]

21 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Already are if you want some, not sure about how Thai customs would react to them incoming: http://www.bluesoleil.com/products/H0011202003240001.html

Minimum 10 boxes, each box has 30 tests I see, total coast around $1500 USD, plus shipping if you can use the needed CE which is required to order them.

[HHTel]

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Keep safe, social distancing does not seem to be working.....

That sentence should read:  'social distancing is being ignored!"

[FarFlungFalang]

45 minutes ago, Eibot said:

You don't think all the hospitals aren't closely in contact every hour to assess the situation? Which government hospitals are bursting  at this moment then?

I've been going to Yasothon hospital for 20 years and it's bursting at the seems every time I visit.

[cryo]

4 hours ago, totally thaied up said:

Our market in the village is packed.

 

I drove past it yesterday afternoon in my car when I went to an ATM to get some cash. People are everywhere, the market vendors were all cooking fish  and Moo Ping and it was just another typical day out as far as I could see.

 

I have not left my house for seven days and I needed some cash for our delivery drivers. My family has taken it seriously but it seems in our area, no one else has. I am feeling like a fool sitting at home doing what they say is the right thing when everyone else in our area does not seem to give a <deleted>.

 

Seems to me if this virus is wide spread or going to be wide spread, herd immunity is the way they are going about it because no one gives a stuff in my village. If people suddenly get sick in my area, I won't feel sorry at all as for at this moment, it is still free for all and those of us that are following what the Government is asking, are feeling pretty silly at the moment.

 

The streets may be empty, the Shopping Malls closed but back to the villages everyone had gone home to, life just goes on like normal. The impact this must be having to the economy must be huge and if the Government has shut things down for 30 days, there must be some reasoning to it. Either the figures do not stack up or we are being left in dark as the costs of this is just too big/high to make any sense of it.

 

I am really at a loss what to say. A News Paper article from a paper we cannot mention on here said today that Thai people are not taking social distancing seriously. What is to be done? I don't know but it certainly is not making any sense to me at this time.

Do not feel silly and stick to your regime in approx 10-14 days this thing will take off. Forget herd immunity this should not be a choice as in a country with a population of approx. 70 mil this would lead to more than half a million deaths going by the Chinese infection stats. China only prevented this with a complete lockdown and as yet they do not know if containment can be held, hence the riot on the Wohan Hebei bridge yesterday as even the Chinese people do not believe their own government.

[Eibot]

5 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I've been going to Yasothon hospital for 20 years and it's bursting at the seems every time I visit.

I agree that hospitals in Thailand do have more activity than western hospitals, but looking at the available beds, they have an (okish) system for it. Meaning that there should always be an X amount of beds available of ICU, and have a backup hospital available in case of an influx (read: young boys on motorbikes on the weekend night)

 

When I walk to the hospitals, it seems everyday always takes the whole family to visit a relative who is sick, and they do a full on pick nick on the premises. Haha.

[eastendanto]

5 hours ago, wasabi said:

We know there is limited testing and thus limited utility in these results. However as I've been saying I have the most faith in the death statistic which is very low. We all know many Thai's will never practice social distancing and sanitary conditions in many places are poor and this will increase infection rates but based on today's results I continue to think that the climate likely makes the virus less virulent.  After the mass exodus out of Bangkok it's obvious these numbers are not going down anytime soon. Flattening the curve is doubtful but herd immunity may be tolerable if the virulence of the virus is low. As long as cases don't grow exponentially and death stays low I believe Thailand remains a relatively safe place to ride this out.

so you say limited testing, limitied utility in the results but have faith in the death statistic .... er 1+1 = 3

[MickGC]

46 minutes ago, rabas said:

There is a Thai customs help line number you can call and ask, they are surprisingly responsive.  I would guess a non invasive test would be fine.

 

But ukrules is right, can anything get in? I had 5 items on order from China from early March and so far only one ever got here.  Otherwise I would buy one.

The other four are in the postal workers cupboard at home.