Are you really ready for two years of this?

[izod10]

A long ,long time this situation will go on for,and even if the virus is isolated and treated,the financial position most people will be in will be dire

   Taxes through the roof,VAT,council tax,every last penny squeezed out of Joe Soap..jobs? what jobs,none and all paying a pittance.  Years to fully recover,something like 10 I estimate

[mauGR1]

3 minutes ago, izod10 said:

A long ,long time this situation will go on for,and even if the virus is isolated and treated,the financial position most people will be in will be dire

   Taxes through the roof,VAT,council tax,every last penny squeezed out of Joe Soap..jobs? what jobs,none and all paying a pittance.  Years to fully recover,something like 10 I estimate

Yep, and while i expect a few millions to sit quietly starving in their shacks, i expect a few millions taking the streets and look for some kind of mob justice.

 

[Monomial]

3 hours ago, Jingthing said:

On the other hand it is true that many governments are using the crisis of this pandemic to restrict civil liberties and although there are good reasons for many of those restrictions to fight this pandemic, it is a real danger that once lost never regained. 

 

JT,

 

Are you willing, at least, to concede that those "good reasons" have only been voiced by so called "experts", and that there has been no independent and exhaustive explanation of those reasons by the people they are supposedly designed to protect?

 

I for one, am not sure there are genuinely "good reasons" for these restrictions. I understand that if you trust the experts, then they have created SIR models that show preferred outcomes with the restrictions in place, but how do I know I can trust the models?  Where is the primary data?  Where are the PBS specials going over exactly how the epidemiologists arrived at these models, and where they obtained the data?

 

These are very serious restrictions we are being asked to accept, they are restrictions that give the majority of benefits to the wealthy and the majority of costs to the poor, and the authorities have provided NOTHING to prove they aren't massaging the data to suit their own purposes.  You don't need a conspiracy theory to be distrustful. There is a virus. People have died from it. But that doesn't mean that there are "good reasons" for this.

 

How do I genuinely know that these authorities have *MY* best interests at heart, and not their own? Can you at least admit that they have not given anyone any reason to trust them, and that the fault for this lies solely with them?

 

And who is going to demand the wealthy make reparations to the poor for imposing these restrictions?  "Good reasons" is a value judgement, and one I am not sure I share.

[uhuh]

On 4/6/2020 at 12:38 PM, JackThompson said:

 

On 4/6/2020 at 12:38 PM, JackThompson said:

Please link to this study, I would like to read it.  Of particular importance, would be if BOTH drugs were used.  The anti-malaria component, alone, is where I have seen only "moderate efficacy," in past studies.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040758v2

 

This is a summary by the NYT:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-malaria.html

[Metapod]

On 4/8/2020 at 10:50 AM, chessman said:

Actually, studies so far have shown that this virus is quite stable and is mutating much more slowly than, for example, ordinary flu does. This means that a vaccine if/when it comes should be effective.

 

Coronaviruses have been around for many years and there has never been a single vaccine developed for them. Then think about stuff like AIDS with no vaccine for decades.

 

People who assume a vaccine is a sure thing have no idea at all.

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, huangnon said:

Why is no one challenging the mainstream media, or statistics thrown at us? This is basically a coup d'etat on the human race.

 

Are you surprised when you look at the number of people with faces in a screen on the streets ( OK, that was before the virus ). People, IMO, have become brainwashed by the almighty screen and only believe what they see on it. Those that control the screen control the population. The words "social media" were probably never heard before 2000, but now people actually care what about what is on something called twitter or facebook- IMO it's pathetic.

The song "Sounds of silence" was never so relevant as today.

 

There are voices challenging the mainstream, but just voices crying in the wilderness.

[thaibeachlovers]

8 hours ago, izod10 said:

A long ,long time this situation will go on for,and even if the virus is isolated and treated,the financial position most people will be in will be dire

   Taxes through the roof,VAT,council tax,every last penny squeezed out of Joe Soap..jobs? what jobs,none and all paying a pittance.  Years to fully recover,something like 10 I estimate

The mayor of the biggest city in NZ still wants to increase rates this year ( as heard on radio ). Crazier than fiction.

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, Monomial said:

I for one, am not sure there are genuinely "good reasons" for these restrictions. I understand that if you trust the experts, then they have created SIR models that show preferred outcomes with the restrictions in place, but how do I know I can trust the models?

On the talkback radio I listen to there are often "experts" speaking and some disagree with the way the government is dealing with this. Whom to believe, indeed.

Regardless, the only "facts" I have been able to find are

1/ the virus kills mainly those with underlying health conditions- apparently most people will not die, or even become seriously ill.

2/ the lockdown is increasing civil disobedience, domestic violence, poverty and in a huge way, unemployment that will not vanish once the lockdown is over.

I can't even begin to comprehend how many will have no jobs after this is over, and we have no way of knowing when it will be "over".

 

As a "small" person I am powerless when it comes to this situation, and will just have to abide by whatever I'm ordered to do, as all us "small" people have to do, but when we do get to vote, all us "small" people might just get to change the government, if such a beast as a better political party exists. Can only hope.

 

[simple1]

6 hours ago, Monomial said:

how do I know I can trust the models?  Where is the primary data?

Have a look at Lancet

 

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

[jastheace]

only when the 2nd atomic bomb hit japan did they surrender. 

this new virus is more deadly, but people still want to create a revolution for freedom to allow them to be open to it. it's like putting a sign on your doorstep.... please put bomb here....

grow up. there is a reason why governments have put their economies on hold (at enormous cost). not just to save the plebs, but for all.

to those who think it's the flu.... it's not

to those who are despondent…. god help you, but don't take others down with you

[jastheace]

10 hours ago, Jingthing said:

It is not a globalist scam.

This virus is real. 

This virus doesn't have a political ideology. 

This virus is NOVEL.

Having antibodies for COLDS is irrelevant. 

The entire human race is virgin territory for infection from this virus and it is massively more threatening than the common cold. People are free I suppose to post ridiculous and obviously false conspiracy theories as above but they should be countered with facts based info every time.

On the other hand it is true that many governments are using the crisis of this pandemic to restrict civil liberties and although there are good reasons for many of those restrictions to fight this pandemic, it is a real danger that once lost never regained. 

yes yes and yes.

would I agree to losing a certain amount of freedom to secure the life of my children?

YOU BETCHA!

[cornishcarlos]

10 minutes ago, jastheace said:

only when the 2nd atomic bomb hit japan did they surrender. 

 

They didn't surrender because of the 2nd bomb but because of the potential of bombs 3,4,5,6 and 7 etc...

[jastheace]

2 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

They didn't surrender because of the 2nd bomb but because of the potential of bombs 3,4,5,6 and 7 etc...

yes I know. thanks. didn't want to go too far off topic....

[JackThompson]

10 hours ago, uhuh said:

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040758v2

 

This is a summary by the NYT:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-malaria.html

Ok - this was not a replication of the drug-combo which has showed amazing results in small-studies thus far.  Even so, it appears this drug alone did significant good.

[Brunolem]

14 hours ago, mauGR1 said:

I'll just desist from talking to you.

Welcome to the club...I have been on his s..tlist long ago...

[Brunolem]

11 hours ago, Monomial said:

 

How do I genuinely know that these authorities have *MY* best interests at heart, and not their own? 

 

The answer is simple: they don't, never have, never will

 

Here are two example:

 

1. The multi trillion dollars rescue plans

 

About 5% of the total amount for 95% of the population and the remainder 95% for big business and its shareholders

 

2. The chloroquine treatment of the disease

 

Supported by doctors on the front lines, but dismissed by the so called experts weaseling in the circles of power, who all have strong connections with the pharmaceutical industry

[Brunolem]

5 hours ago, Metapod said:

Coronaviruses have been around for many years and there has never been a single vaccine developed for them. Then think about stuff like AIDS with no vaccine for decades.

 

People who assume a vaccine is a sure thing have no idea at all.

The vaccine is the carrot hanging at the end of the stick

 

The stick is the 2 week long stay at home order, that is constantly drifting away like a mirage in the desert

 

The donkey is the populace on which the guys holding the stick and the carrot sit

 

 

[Brunolem]

4 hours ago, jastheace said:

 

grow up. there is a reason why governments have put their economies on hold (at enormous cost). not just to save the plebs, but for all.

 

At enormous cost...but not for them!

 

Who among them has lost his job, or reduced his income, and freedom?

 

Everyone is (forced into) making sacrifices, except the politicians.

 

Now, if you believe governments are competent, you need to open your eyes.

 

Long before the pandemic, the world was in a total mess, that was all the making of governments.

 

They didn't suddenly become competent because a crisis came out of nowhere.

 

Since they haven't got a clue about how to deal with this crisis, they simply copy China, which was the first confronted to it...without having any idea of what really happened over there, in terms of numbers.

 

If anything, it seems very likely that the stay at home orders make things worse (see the brilliant results of Italy, Spain and France).

[Monomial]

8 hours ago, simple1 said:

Have a look at Lancet

 

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

 

Some interesting medical research papers there, but no raw data with which to build our own models or verify the models being presented.

[Monomial]

8 hours ago, simple1 said:

Have a look at Lancet

 

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

 

Below is an example of the problem I have with the experts. Take this one article from that site, for example. This is obviously a very intelligent person who is initimately familiar with the subject, and he makes the following statement in his conclusion:

 

Containment of COVID-19 should remain the focus at the moment. The short-term cost of containment will be far lower than the long-term cost of non-containment.

 

The problem?  There is absolutely ZERO justification for this statement in his paper. It is simply his own personal opinion that he just slaps in during the conclusion. In order to make a statement like this, and to make it responsibly, you need to define the metric you are using for "cost". What things are you including in your calculations, and how is that calculation done? What are your values, vs. the values of the community? What other possible metrics have you considered? Do they all lead to this same conclusion?

 

The problem with opinions like this is we, and governments leaders as well, are expected to give his opinion more credence than our own because it comes from a so called "expert".  He is just a scientist. Not a god. This is not the way science works. The scientific method is broken right now. We need a fundamental rethink of how we deal with situations like this, because what we are doing today is horribly disfunctional.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30129-8/fulltext

[chessman]

2 hours ago, Monomial said:

Containment of COVID-19 should remain the focus at the moment. The short-term cost of containment will be far lower than the long-term cost of non-containment.

 

The problem?  There is absolutely ZERO justification for this statement in his paper. It is simply his own personal opinion that he just slaps in during the conclusion. In order to make a statement like this, and to make it responsibly, you need to define the metric you are using for "cost". What things are you including in your calculations, and how is that calculation done? What are your values, vs. the values of the community? What other possible metrics have you considered? Do they all lead to this same conclusion?

 

The problem with opinions like this is we, and governments leaders as well, are expected to give his opinion more credence than our own because it comes from a so called "expert".  He is just a scientist. Not a god. This is not the way science works. The scientific method is broken right now. We need a fundamental rethink of how we deal with situations like this, because what we are doing today is horribly disfunctional.

 

The scientific method is not broken, we just lack sufficient data at the moment to be sure about the best way forward. In such a case, surely it is sensible to be cautious, save people's lives in the short term, find out more about the virus, get our health care systems better prepared and work forward from there?

 

What was horribly disfunctional was the lack of immediate preparation when we learned how devastating this could be in Wuhan. What is happening now is a fairly straightforward response to the models we had when decisions had to be made and observations about how the virus was spreading. You may think those decisions were wrong and you may be correct in the long term but nobody could be sure about this.

 

 

[simple1]

3 hours ago, Monomial said:

 

Below is an example of the problem I have with the experts. Take this one article from that site, for example. This is obviously a very intelligent person who is initimately familiar with the subject, and he makes the following statement in his conclusion:

 

Containment of COVID-19 should remain the focus at the moment. The short-term cost of containment will be far lower than the long-term cost of non-containment.

 

The problem?  There is absolutely ZERO justification for this statement in his paper. It is simply his own personal opinion that he just slaps in during the conclusion. In order to make a statement like this, and to make it responsibly, you need to define the metric you are using for "cost". What things are you including in your calculations, and how is that calculation done? What are your values, vs. the values of the community? What other possible metrics have you considered? Do they all lead to this same conclusion?

 

The problem with opinions like this is we, and governments leaders as well, are expected to give his opinion more credence than our own because it comes from a so called "expert".  He is just a scientist. Not a god. This is not the way science works. The scientific method is broken right now. We need a fundamental rethink of how we deal with situations like this, because what we are doing today is horribly disfunctional.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30129-8/fulltext

Some unfair comments. The report references the economic effects for SARS (with reference point), quote below,. Accordingly calling out economic effects of Covid from lessons learnt, IMO, is OK.

 

The psychological effects of SARS, coupled with travel restrictions imposed by various national and international authorities, resulted in a major economic loss for the airline industry and world economy in 2003, far beyond the main areas affected by SARS.

²⁸

[Skywalker69]

On 4/4/2020 at 3:03 AM, RoadWarrior371 said:

I plan to infect myself, become immune, and travel the world like some kinda SuperHero.  Corona-Man.  Booyah

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/10/south-korea-reports-recovered-coronavirus-patients-testing-positive/

 

[CrossBones]

At some point (soon) life will return to normal. Once they have enough ventilators and field hospitals set up and a treatment drug like the antriretroviral thing or the malaria one.

Some company will start making ventilators for $300 instead of $50,000. They arent particularly complicated perhaps 5% as complicated as a car or motorbike.

At that point - probably in about 2 months they will just open up all countries again. By then there will be equal (ish) infection rates in all countries so there wont be travel restrictions. For example 300 people fly from UK to Bangkok and the plane flies back with 300 people. Theres no increse in risk for either country.

 

Life will go back to normal with a new threat in town.

New threats scare people

Old threats are accepted

 

For example if the motorcycle was invented today - it would be rejected as being far too dangerous.

 

We dont stay at home hiding from the sun for fear of skin cancer. In time this will all be accepted and the hysteria will be over.

 

Old people will decide they dont want to spend their final years hiding and home and want to return to a normal life.

 

Just my 2 cents worth

 

[brokenbone]

long term im mostly curious if there will be a 300 thb st revival,

but for now im just euphoric i can drive mid day in south and central pattaya

without getting bogged down in traffic jam, im hoping for a permanent

large reduction in population in pattaya

[jastheace]

2 hours ago, brokenbone said:

(snip)  im hoping for a permanent

large reduction in population in pattaya

not the girls though, pls not the girls 

[Monomial]

11 hours ago, simple1 said:

Some unfair comments. The report references the economic effects for SARS (with reference point), quote below,. Accordingly calling out economic effects of Covid from lessons learnt, IMO, is OK.

 

The psychological effects of SARS, coupled with travel restrictions imposed by various national and international authorities, resulted in a major economic loss for the airline industry and world economy in 2003, far beyond the main areas affected by SARS.

²⁸

 

In his conclusion, he specifically states "The short-term cost of containment will be far lower than the long-term cost of non-containment."

 

Again, he does not explain how he arrived at this conclusion. Stating that there are economic consequences is orthogonal to explaining the model you used to evaluate cost. There is no quantifiable metric for cost mentioned anywhere in the paper. What is the specific cost formula employed? What are the input variables? This is nothing more than his opinion with absolutely no justification for what kind of a formula he used.  I don't believe this is an unfair comment. It goes to the very heart of the difference between facts and values. He is stating a value judgement as if it were a fact, and expecting us to simply accept it because he is an "expert".

 

This is wrong. This is not helpful. This leads to nothing but mistrust of scientists and experts by the population. We need to stop allowing this kind of misrepresentation of what science and the scientific method is all about.

 

In order to responsibly make the statement above, show your work. Justify it, and note where you are using genuine facts, and where you are substituting your personal values system in lieu of facts.  That is what scientists should be trained to do. That is how I was trained. This is not what I am seeing during this pandemic.

 

So how can I believe anything I have heard? All I see are experts who are blatantly abusing their status to push their own agendas. Maybe it is objectively the right one, but maybe not. How can any of us know?

 

[simple1]

9 minutes ago, Monomial said:

 

In his conclusion, he specifically states "The short-term cost of containment will be far lower than the long-term cost of non-containment."

 

Again, he does not explain how he arrived at this conclusion. Stating that there are economic consequences is orthogonal to explaining the model you used to evaluate cost. There is no quantifiable metric for cost mentioned anywhere in the paper. What is the specific cost formula employed? What are the input variables? This is nothing more than his opinion with absolutely no justification for what kind of a formula he used.  I don't believe this is an unfair comment. It goes to the very heart of the difference between facts and values. He is stating a value judgement as if it were a fact, and expecting us to simply accept it because he is an "expert".

 

This is wrong. This is not helpful. This leads to nothing but mistrust of scientists and experts by the population. We need to stop allowing this kind of misrepresentation of what science and the scientific method is all about.

 

In order to responsibly make the statement above, show your work. Justify it, and note where you are using genuine facts, and where you are substituting your personal values system in lieu of facts.  That is what scientists should be trained to do. That is how I was trained. This is not what I am seeing during this pandemic.

 

So how can I believe anything I have heard? All I see are experts who are blatantly abusing their status to push their own agendas. Maybe it is objectively the right one, but maybe not. How can any of us know?

 

"The short-term cost of containment will be far lower than the long-term cost of non-containment." 

Again, he does not explain how he arrived at this conclusion.

 

Relax, why would he need to? Perfectly logical conclusion is it not on what we know of the virulent spread of Covid-19?

 

The author is not an economist. But again he was basing his thoughts on the economic effects of SARS which so far as I know are not disputed. Really don't comprehend why you're apparently distressed by a medical researcher's side comments on economic effects. 

[ExpatOilWorker]

4 hours ago, CrossBones said:

At some point (soon) life will return to normal. Once they have enough ventilators and field hospitals set up and a treatment drug like the antriretroviral thing or the malaria one.

Some company will start making ventilators for $300 instead of $50,000. They arent particularly complicated perhaps 5% as complicated as a car or motorbike.

At that point - probably in about 2 months they will just open up all countries again. By then there will be equal (ish) infection rates in all countries so there wont be travel restrictions. For example 300 people fly from UK to Bangkok and the plane flies back with 300 people. Theres no increse in risk for either country.

 

Life will go back to normal with a new threat in town.

New threats scare people

Old threats are accepted

 

For example if the motorcycle was invented today - it would be rejected as being far too dangerous.

 

We dont stay at home hiding from the sun for fear of skin cancer. In time this will all be accepted and the hysteria will be over.

 

Old people will decide they dont want to spend their final years hiding and home and want to return to a normal life.

 

Just my 2 cents worth

 

The post corona new normal will probably be full of small changes, like mandatory face mask in public transportation, first 4 opening hours at Supermarkets only serve senior citizens, corona certificate for international travel, etc.

[Assurancetourix]

On 4/5/2020 at 11:07 AM, Sambotte said:

Actually central banks PRINT money as they want. It's printed, out of nothing, not a big problem for the printers ????

Value of "printed money" is another story.

Nothing new here.

 

As a French humorist who died long years ago said:
very good for lighting the fire

 

We will first be entitled to an unimaginable recession only a few months ago;

France, for example, has already lost 6 points in a few weeks;

 

then hyper inflation like the one that rocked Germany at the end of the 1920s (well, there is just 1 century!);
blessed era when it took a barrow of banknotes to buy 125 grams of butter ...

 

With this, Big Brother which already exists in China will become the current model everywhere on the planet ...

 

As for wanting to continue to travel as before Covis-19, do not dream; it will no longer exist.
Large aviation companies such as Lufthansa, which owns a whopping 763 aircraft, nailed the ground to over 700 and lost 24 million euros every day;
The Thai and a significant number of other companies already over-indebted will sink  ...
Here is the joyous news of the day. 

Until today we talked about before or after Jesus Christ;
now it will be before or after Covid-19

Edited April 12, 2020 by Assurancetourix