2020 overall deaths interesting comparison site.

[Matzzon]

12 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

You don't "judge" people when you don't agree, or dismiss their statements.

 

All your statements regarding the state of the economy pre crisis, and its coming rebound post crisis, are wrong I am afraid...but this is not the object of this thread...there are many other threads for that, where you can enjoy reading my "expertise"...

Thanks for the laugh! You forgot this ???? after the last word.

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

So you mean that we are in lock down until we reach at least 40 million cases, so that we have a better idea of the mortality rate.

And when did he say that he mean that? The only thing he posted was that it must reach that number to be able to get a number that can be used to compare. Still looking foe that thing you called your expertise in another post. Ops! Now I remember. You only used that in a specific thread.

[cornishcarlos]

1 hour ago, Matzzon said:

And you are talking too much about things you don´t have a clue about.

 

Just like everyone, including you, on this forum and the majority of the world right now...

[Matzzon]

1 minute ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Just like everyone, including you, on this forum and the majority of the world right now...

You are 100 % right. But exactly like you I like to point that out. ????

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

400,000 people die of the flu "when" 40,000,000 have the flu, a mortality rate of 0.1%.

40,000,000 people dont have covid yet, if we get to a point where 40,000,000 have covid then the deaths will be 20-30 times higher than the flu deaths. (then it will be 600,000)

Any flu death figures you choose to quote are 0.1% of the total flu cases.

When the total covid  cases reach the same number, the death rate will be 2-3% of the total.

 

You are still comparing apples with oranges, the yearly flu figures with 2 months of covid figures. The flu figures from after its finished to the covid figures 2-3 months into the covid virus.

 

The only way the flu figures are relevant is if you have the yearly covvid figures, and we wont have those figures for another 9-10 months.

That's correct we don't have the figures yet so we will indeed have to wait and see but in the mean time we can sharpen our wits and skills and keep duelling to see who is victorious in the fascinating C19 debate and apples and oranges are both fruits that share many of they same elements essential for life.They both have peels they both have a core they (mostly) have seeds they both taste good just like C19 and the flu share many similarities and symptoms yet are different beasts.I hope you don't win this argument because if you do 8,000,000-12,000,000 people will be dead.

Edited April 12, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, chessman said:

What do you make of the spread from that Thai boxing event? Lots of cases and deaths attributed to that. Imagine if Thailand had taken no steps to ban mass gatherings after that... there could easily have started to be similar mass gatherings where the virus was spread.

 

these are ‘what ifs’ of course but you can see why a country would look at what was happening in Italy at the time and be overly cautious.

Mass gathering were banned before the boxing stadium debacle but further steps were taken to enforce or encourage adherence of the ban.I'm dubious as to wether the measures implemented are having as big an impact as the weather or humidity as is my favoured theory lately that and being cooped up at home whilst still being allowed to continue pretty much as normal.Can we just fast forward to the 12 month time frame please.This is going to slow.

[yourauntbob]

3 hours ago, chessman said:

1. New code... makes sense. Where are doctors being told to record all deaths as covid?

2. unsourced anecdotal evidence

Can't help you if you don't read what is put in front of you.  See link from my prior post.

[chessman]

1 hour ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I hope you don't win this argument because if you do 8,000,000-12,000,000 people will be dead.

This is an interesting point. The models that were predicting those kinds of numbers of deaths were based on no action being taken by governments at all. Those models pointed out at the time that this was purely hypothetical because no government would see so many deaths and take no action.

 

But some people will use the fact that the number of deaths will (almost certainly) be far below that to say that these social distancing measures were an over-reaction. But there is also a very strong argument that the number will be lower because politicians followed the advice of the models and took the measures that they did.

[chessman]

6 minutes ago, yourauntbob said:

Can't help you if you don't read what is put in front of you.  See link from my prior post.

I read it. Technical medical stuff. If you can explain the bit that supports your argument then please let me know. Did you see the Washington post article I quoted earlier? Uses data from previous viruses like swine flu to show how death rates at the time actually massively underestimate the total number of deaths.

[yourauntbob]

8 hours ago, Matzzon said:

Really!? You can´t be serious. Most countries will bounce back after less than a year. The housing crisis was much worse. Signs started already 2003, and nobody took any notice except Warren Buffet. That led to a collapse at the end of 2006 and was also what created the global financial crisis between 2007-2009. Economic collapse? Now, the world recovered fine. Any changes after that? No, people still not learned anything. Another crisis will come. This is just a minor bump in the road, that will soon be forgotten. Nothing will change at the end, until next time something comes up that makes people suffer.

Pretty sure everything in your post was wrong.  Buffet didn't predict the housing crisis.  There were many who did (the whole Austrian school of economics).  This is a dent crisis much worse that the 2007-2008 crises.  They have already injected more funds than the entire 2007/2008 QE cycles.  The virus is the pin that pricked the debt bubble.  And the response by governments world wide is going to prolong the pain.

 

If you have savings, buy gold.  The Austrian predicted this crash years ago and there is little time to get your finances in order at this point 

 

[yourauntbob]

2 hours ago, chessman said:

fact checking from the Washington Post. Food for thought.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/27/those-covid-19-death-toll-figures-are-incomplete/

 

Giving reasons why the number of covid deaths is actually being underreported. Interesting that the number of Swine flu deaths at the time was much lower and then revised upwards later when people analysed the numbers of deaths. 

 

 

Just because they under reported/got it wrong last time by making the nber too low doesn't mean that the way they are digging the nbers this time will render the same result.  Espically since they are  blaming every death they can on covid

[yourauntbob]

15 minutes ago, chessman said:

I read it. Technical medical stuff. If you can explain the bit that supports your argument then please let me know. Did you see the Washington post article I quoted earlier? Uses data from previous viruses like swine flu to show how death rates at the time actually massively underestimate the total number of deaths.

“The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID- 19 being the underlying cause more often than not,”

 

“If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II.”

 

many doctors are reading that as "if they have the covid virus, than that should be considered the primary cause for official reporting even if it could reasonably be assumed otherwise.

[Matzzon]

19 minutes ago, yourauntbob said:

Pretty sure everything in your post was wrong.  Buffet didn't predict the housing crisis.  There were many who did (the whole Austrian school of economics).  This is a dent crisis much worse that the 2007-2008 crises.  They have already injected more funds than the entire 2007/2008 QE cycles.  The virus is the pin that pricked the debt bubble.  And the response by governments world wide is going to prolong the pain.

 

If you have savings, buy gold.  The Austrian predicted this crash years ago and there is little time to get your finances in order at this point 

 

Thanks for the economy advice. Yes, I have savings invested in exactly the most favorable percentage the maximise earning capacity as well as minimise the possibility of losses. In other words, I do not need any time, due to that I always see to that time is on my side. Who knows, maybe I give you some great ideas here.

The fact that they have injected more funds than ever before, is only something that is going to easy the come back of world economy. Nevermind, you do not need to understand that. You are already a pro. 

[yourauntbob]

36 minutes ago, chessman said:

This is an interesting point. The models that were predicting those kinds of numbers of deaths were based on no action being taken by governments at all. Those models pointed out at the time that this was purely hypothetical because no government would see so many deaths and take no action.

 

But some people will use the fact that the number of deaths will (almost certainly) be far below that to say that these social distancing measures were an over-reaction. But there is also a very strong argument that the number will be lower because politicians followed the advice of the models and took the measures that they did.

Execpt for the fact that some countries (Sweden) and some states  (Dakota's) didn't listen to the "experts" and have comparable numbers

[yourauntbob]

10 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Thanks for the economy advice. Yes, I have savings invested in exactly the most favorable percentage the maximise earning capacity as well as minimise the possibility of losses. In other words, I do not need any time, due to that I always see to that time is on my side. Who knows, maybe I give you some great ideas here.

The fact that they have injected more funds than ever before, is only something that is going to easy the come back of world economy. Nevermind, you do not need to understand that. You are already a pro. 

What they are doing is going to kill the economy.  Can't bail out everyone.   

 

I'm not a pro, but I listen to the ones who called 2000, 2007, and this one correct.  I don't listen to the ones who say "nobody saw this coming" every time their "cure" blows up in their face

[chessman]

16 minutes ago, yourauntbob said:

Execpt for the fact that some countries (Sweden) and some states  (Dakota's) didn't listen to the "experts" and have comparable numbers

Sweden is most comparable with its neighbouring countries. It now has double the amount of confirmed deaths than Norway, Denmark and Finland combined. The number of deaths has been rising more quickly too, so we might expect this number to go up.

I hope not, I have relatives in Sweden. I asked one about what she thought and she was happy with the government's response. She said they have let the health experts make the decisions instead of the politicians. It was interesting talking to her.

 

I think it would be very interesting to see data on the economic impact on these Nordic countries. Sweden does have some social distancing measures but they are much weaker than the other countries. I would assume that the economies of all the Nordic countries are taking a hit but the impact on the Swedish economy is less severe. But by how much?

[chessman]

1 hour ago, yourauntbob said:

“The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID- 19 being the underlying cause more often than not,”

 

“If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II.”

 

many doctors are reading that as "if they have the covid virus, than that should be considered the primary cause for official reporting even if it could reasonably be assumed otherwise.

OK, I get this but doctors are still making decisions based on their opinion. Most of the Covid -19 patients are dying from acute respiratory diseases, this would be put first on the cause of death form. It seems a lot of the time this is caused by COVID -19 so that would be put as an underlying cause if the patient was known to have the disease. Asthma may have increased their chances of being severely affected but it isn't directly causing the death.

 

and this system is a left wing conspiracy?

[JCauto]

On 4/12/2020 at 9:13 AM, FarFlungFalang said:

The yearly global fatalities for the flu is about 30,000 per month so according to you there should be 600,000 to 900,000 deaths per month for sars cov 2.Can you show me any graphic or list or organisation that is showing these types of numbers?I suspect you are pulling my leg.In a normal year after 3 1/2 months deaths from flu would be about 105,000 which sounds remarkably similar to this pandemic.

The thing that seems to be growing exponentially is the number of epidemiology experts on ThaiVisa. Who would have known there was such an incredible wealth of expertise on this site? Just because it contradicts those experts who have to publish their data and undergo peer-review and have to face the consequences if they're wrong and have education, qualifications and experience is no reason to be skeptical.

I'm sure you're right and the world is wrong. What a shame that you're not in charge.

[natway09]

You guys seem to want to downplay this virus. Yes, I checked the stats, not good reading but in your haste you forget to mention the millions more that would have died of these normal bodily malfunctions had it not been for modern medicine, these people still leading normal lives.

This virus so far has no known cure although Thailand's "bandaids " seem to be helping.

I am a little surprised that with all the clever Doctors, virologists & Pharma Co's who have made trillions out of the general public . 

that they have not isolated the virus & come up with some better "bandaid" treatment 

or is this purposefuly being withheld

[cornishcarlos]

1 minute ago, natway09 said:

You guys seem to want to downplay this virus. Yes, I checked the stats, not good reading but in your haste you forget to mention the millions more that would have died of these normal bodily malfunctions had it not been for modern medicine, these people still leading normal lives.

This virus so far has no known cure although Thailand's "bandaids " seem to be helping.

I am a little surprised that with all the clever Doctors, virologists & Pharma Co's who have made trillions out of the general public . 

that they have not isolated the virus & come up with some better "bandaid" treatment 

or is this purposefuly being withheld

 

https://youtu.be/lGC5sGdz4kg

[sucit]

On 4/12/2020 at 9:34 AM, Peterw42 said:

600,000-900,000 are not figures I have quoted or according to me. 

 

If 1,000 people get the flu one person will die, if 1,000 people get covid 10-20 will die.

If a person has the flu, on average they pass it to 1 other person. If a person has covid, on average they pass it to 2.5 people.

 

Yes the flu kills every year but it has an endpoint, because its less deadly, less contagious and is controlled with a vaccine.

 

If you cant see the major difference between the two, then I cant help you understand it.

 

 

The problem is, you're wrong.

 

Nobody knows how many people have the coronavirus. To say "10-20 times higher mortality rate" is wrong. 

[sucit]

14 minutes ago, natway09 said:

You guys seem to want to downplay this virus. Yes, I checked the stats, not good reading but in your haste you forget to mention the millions more that would have died of these normal bodily malfunctions had it not been for modern medicine, these people still leading normal lives.

This virus so far has no known cure although Thailand's "bandaids " seem to be helping.

I am a little surprised that with all the clever Doctors, virologists & Pharma Co's who have made trillions out of the general public . 

that they have not isolated the virus & come up with some better "bandaid" treatment 

or is this purposefuly being withheld

And "you guys" seem to insist on sensationalizing this virus. 

[sucit]

20 hours ago, chessman said:

Sweden is most comparable with its neighbouring countries. It now has double the amount of confirmed deaths than Norway, Denmark and Finland combined. The number of deaths has been rising more quickly too, so we might expect this number to go up.

I hope not, I have relatives in Sweden. I asked one about what she thought and she was happy with the government's response. She said they have let the health experts make the decisions instead of the politicians. It was interesting talking to her.

 

I think it would be very interesting to see data on the economic impact on these Nordic countries. Sweden does have some social distancing measures but they are much weaker than the other countries. I would assume that the economies of all the Nordic countries are taking a hit but the impact on the Swedish economy is less severe. But by how much?

That is what they expected to happen in Sweden. You can't leave the herd out of herd immunity if you expect it to work. 

 

The goal is to not overwhelm the medical system and not shutdown at the same time. If you feel they are doing a poor job of that, let us know.

 

 

[Peterw42]

.

[chessman]

1 hour ago, sucit said:

The problem is, you're wrong.

 

Nobody knows how many people have the coronavirus. To say "10-20 times higher mortality rate" is wrong. 

This is the best estimate of the experts. There are lots of different numbers (some less than 10 times it is true) but I’ve not heard a credible expert who has said it is the same or less than Normal flu.

 

Nobody can know now but because more accurate numbers won’t be available until after the pandemic finishes, governments will make decisions based on the estimates that the experts make.
 

What do you think should happen?

[chessman]

1 hour ago, sucit said:

That is what they expected to happen in Sweden. You can't leave the herd out of herd immunity if you expect it to work. 

 

The goal is to not overwhelm the medical system and not shutdown at the same time. If you feel they are doing a poor job of that, let us know.

 

 

I am just curious. Read what I wrote. To hold up Sweden as an example of a country that is doing things correctly (as a previous poster did) is premature. They have a lot more deaths than comparable countries and am not sure there is any data about the economic benefits about what they are doing. If you have any, please share.

[Johnthplumb]

On 4/12/2020 at 9:37 AM, yuyiinthesky said:

Thanks, it is important to understand that there are more diseases around than this virus, diseases which are killing more people than this virus, and that every single day.

I wish there would be only half the effort put into fighting tuberculosis, malaria, influenza than into fighting this virus.

I'm sorry for every single one having to die, but that includes the huge number of unnecessary deaths from diseases other than Covid-19.

Correct, in a earlier post, most deaths with the virus had another serious underlying medical condition, without that condition they may have survived, so deaths purely by the virus is unknown.

As Yuyiinthesky said there are more diseases around than this virus that have killed more.

The figures as follows:- normal winter flue deaths so far this year world wide 126,450, compared with 107,450 from Covid-19

since the outbreak started in December 2019,roughly 449,600 have died from TB.  216,370 from HIV/AIDS and 122,235 from Malaria, also it is very noticeable that more men than women die of the virus, in the UK up to April 11th, cumulative cases total 78,991, ( if any one is thinking of returning to good old UK ) % of the population infected in the UK is 2.7% .

Uploaded a photo, I think it is not to bad in Thailand.

Have a safe day.

 

 

[Johnthplumb]

Stay safe have a good day

[Thingamabob]

We are never told how many of those infected with the Corona virus actually died from other causes. This means that the numbers of those really dying from the Corona virus are being are being grossly exaggerated.

[chessman]

58 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

We are never told how many of those infected with the Corona virus actually died from other causes. This means that the numbers of those really dying from the Corona virus are being are being grossly exaggerated.

Read this with an open mind. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/27/those-covid-19-death-toll-figures-are-incomplete/
 

it is likely that the number of real number of deaths is higher than what is being reported.