Thai economy suffering worst damage since 1950s, experts say

[Neeranam]

5 hours ago, ChipButty said:

Put the Baht back to 65 to the £ and we will all be over the moon

That was hardly the normal. It was 37 when I came here in Oct 92, and was much lower before then. 

[MyEverything]

The worst period in Thai economy in six decades but, no worries as we will recover in the final qtr of the year! 

“However, Thailand still can recover in the fourth quarter if the situation stabilises.”

????????????????

[Grumpy John]

Optimistic point of view to say the least!  Maybe he hasn't factored in the pain other countries are experiencing.   Maybe he thinks those overpriced $60k plus pick-ups in Western countries will start flying out the door of dealerships.  All those unemployed people will be rushing back to LOS for a holiday!  Maybe living in a university bubble isn't the right place for a dose of reality!

[Robert Tyrrell]

Hello ,

So Thai Government manipulates the The Baht to produce poor Exchange Rates  to make The Cats Fatter and Richer and now there crying !!
Bad Economy !! BOOOOWHOOOO !! Maybe now your wishing you did not do what you did to the Exchange Rates , HUH ??????? :)  

[leggo]

6 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

This is going to be a rough ride downhill for the baht...be interesting to see if the hard-asses free up the visa requirements for tourist and retirees...

 

Maybe those "dirty-farang's" money is not so bad after all...

The fewer the "dirty-farang's" are in Thailand the better!

[fulhamster]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

Currency traders—that’s mega banks, financial houses and even small individual traders.  When the signals change from risk off (buy safe havens) to risk on (sell safe havens, buy emerging markets), your mighty Baht rises.  And incredibly, they consider Thailand a stable economy (low inflation, decent interest rates, no political turmoil, and very high USD in reserve).

If they've got all these reserves, why are they borrowing nearly 2 trillion baht ??

[Knocker33]

6 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

This is going to be a rough ride downhill for the baht...be interesting to see if the hard-asses free up the visa requirements for tourist and retirees...

 

Maybe those "dirty-farang's" money is not so bad after all...

I doubt if the immigration will loosen up on anything apart from probably giving the Chinese free visas.I think the western tourist has had enough of Thailand and as soon as the hoards of Chinese start arriving, there will be hardly any. Plus when the world has seen how the immigration dept treated people in the crisis I don't think they will be back

[soi3eddie]

6 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

Maybe those "dirty-farang's" money is not so bad after all...

...but Chinese money is so much better. 

[Katipo]

"people could choose to either spend or save their Bt5,000 monthly aid payments", yeah, I am not sure that the people who qualify for this 5k baht are in a position to 'choose' right now. ????

[Deli]

6 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

This is going to be a rough ride downhill for the baht...be interesting to see if the hard-asses free up the visa requirements for tourist and retirees...

 

Maybe those "dirty-farang's" money is not so bad after all...

Retirees are just a minor fraction of the money going around, they are loud only here on TV. The real tourist money is what counts, and with their usual stay of 2 or 3 weeks, they never have / had a visa problem.

[thaistocks]

This is an alarmist headline, typical of mainstream media hype. The Thai economy came to a standstill, yes just now, but as soon as things are contained it will bounce back. Its just a snapshot of what is at this very moment in time -and does not account for how quickly it will likely bounce back. The Thai SET is already projecting this, having rallied back 20% off its low point in March. That of course is not mentioned. Stock markets are always forward looking.

[ChipButty]

I have been speaking to a nice young lady from Booking.com and she reckons it will be about November before the tourist start coming back and they think it will be the Asian markets first, and she said the European tourist will be next year before they start booking,

[ParkerN]

Kiss goodbye to the zero-unemployment the government has trumpeted to anyone who would listen.

 

It was widely regarded as sophistry anyway. Several million is a bit more realistic and real-world, even if S. Korea and Japan are likely to the the opportunity to tighten up on tourist visas to Thais. Way too many 'Robin Hood' Thais, and way too much tolerance by the host country governments.

 

Not finished yet, Africa is up next. Fasten your safety belts, Africa will be quite a lot worse by virtue of their cultural norms. Also the Hispanic countries. Mr Trump will be so happy.

 

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by ParkerN

[pookondee]

1 hour ago, SmartyMarty said:

Quick, get the tourists back. No virus here.

Appreciate the sarcasm, but actually reminded me...

What of the "dirty diseased farangs" lining up in the hundreds at immigration only a few weeks ago?

 

If we are indeed "the diseased ones", then shouldnt there have been a huge outbreak amongst those people that were at immigration?

It didnt happen? 

So how do the Thais authorities explain that?

since some Thais even believe its our fault and not the Chinese.

 

Then there was the hugely anticipated panic of outbreaks everywhere (especially Isaan) from the 1000s of Thais converging at MoChit2 to get out of Bangkok?

what about that?

 

That is aside from the millions of Chinese tourists that flooded Thailand early around Jan-feb..

 

By all accounts a good 40% of Thailand should be infected by now IF this thing is as bad as they say.

 

 

I dont read much here, but surely we would have heard if mass farangs and Thais got infected from these events?

 

Surely people are soon going to do more than ask questions about all this Buเเ<deleted> we have been sold?

 

IMO, The whole thing just stinks to high heaven.

 

 

[ParkerN]

1 hour ago, pookondee said:

So how do the Thais authorities explain that?

They won't, they'll just move on and rely upon the 9-day rule.

 

 

[Xavnel]

The Chinese were going to save the Thai Economy. ....

Well,  they sure did a number on it.... 

[AussieBob18]

3 hours ago, Brickbat said:

You have got it all wrong . The rich here are doubling their wealth every few years ( the Billionaires in 2 years) . They know exactly what they are doing. Sure, it’s to the detriment of the vast majority of locals. But.... Cheap Charlie farangs are of absolutely no concern to the Ruling Class. And btw, if you ever go to 4-5 star hotels, the majority are Asian customers. Farangs are in guest houses.

its Time for us to wake up to the hard n fast truth. 

Very true.  But when will the Thai people (non-wealthy) wake up.

Take a look at the Forbes top 10 richest people in Australia - once of the world's better economies and 14th in top GDP.

Then take a look at the Forbes top 10 richest people in Thailand - which economy is 1/3 of Australia.

Unbelievable - the Thai top 10 dwarf the Aussies - it is very very wrong in Thailand.

One day ........... hopefully soon ............... something is going to give.

[Neeranam]

17 minutes ago, leggo said:

The fewer the "dirty-farang's" are in Thailand the better!

Christ, get over it. This was one man only that said this, and to be fair to him, did he actually say "dirty"? 

Actually, yesterday my mother said she was surprised that Thailand wasn't more infected due to the lack of hygiene here! I think many of us, due to the environment we were brought up in, have preconceived ideas about foreigners. 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Neeranam
yes

[munchlet]

What a piece of sugar coated rubbish!! They are going to lost 10mn jobs and the economy is oonly going to contract around 4%? What are they smoking? They have already lost the Hotel and tourism industry. Completely!!! Totally!! That's 20% of GDP. Gone, vanished!! Anyone who thinks we will be back to 3.5mn tourists  month is on heroin!! Exports, which are 60% of GDP are dropping by 25% so there is another 15% of GDP vapourised. The Thai economy has ALREADY contracted by at least 30%.

 

This is going to be carnage!! You will be able to buy cheap EVERYTHING!! Greand sale time in Thailand!! They may even get rid of the idiotic restrictions on foreign ownership like Cambodia and Vietnam and become competitive again!!

[AussieBob18]

3 hours ago, lks7689 said:

The last time I replied to a post was years ago. Since I'm bored from the lockdown in my own country, let me say some <deleted> to go along with the daily doses going around here. So what have farangs, who have "invested" or wasted their time and money in Thailand prior gotta do with how Thailand dictate policies? Times has change and certainly I'm sure the countries these farangs came from has seen better days. If not, they would have zip up, admit they made the wrong judgement call and went back where they came from, why "suffer" in Thailand? For years I have invested in Thailand, then found the culture unsuitable and moved on. I could whine like many losers here do on a daily basis but I figured, what's the chances of me changing a Thai mindset so deeply rooted in greed and superficiality? People in thaivisa has been whining for decades, what has changed? You farangs know the deal in Thailand yet still you stay there, taking pot shots at Thai incompetence that you know very well will continue past the day you die. By staying you are admitting there's a part of Thailand that you still crave and can't let go. Isn't that hypocritical? 

You should have stayed asleep.

I dont live in Thailand at the moment - used to - but now in Aust waiting for the pension (must be here to get it).

TV and all Forums are the opportunity for people to exchange their ideas and thoughts - that is what they are for.

You have every right to complain about Farangs just as I do to complain about the Thai Govt and their decisions.

And we all realise that we have nil chance of changing things - just as you have no chance changing me/us.

 

So - do you agree with the Thai Govt's focus on Chinese/Indian/Russian tourists and their ever growing impositions against western tourists (Farangs) - especially the 'long stay' ones?

[Magenta408]

The economy was tanking well before Covid-19. Tourism was slumping and exports were all but dwindling. Everyone is using 19 as a good scapegoat. 

[Marcus Atwood]

Hopefully everyone has been dollar cost averaging into TQQQ over the past month. Up 70%. Still 60-80% gains to be made. Buy the DIP. 

Rule of thumb: during times of uncertainty, buy TVIX. When the coast looks clear and the "managed US economy" is full steam ahead, buy TQQQ. TQQQ is a 3x leveraged technology ETF of all the best tech companies in Silicon Valley. It's the only long term investment you really need. Up 300%+ over 5 years ( even with COVID crash ). 

[Neeranam]

10 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

So - do you agree with the Thai Govt's focus on Chinese/Indian/Russian tourists and their ever growing impositions against western tourists (Farangs) - especially the 'long stay' ones?

What exactly are the Thai government doing to single out white tourists? 

[Mavideol]

7 hours ago, ChipButty said:

Put the Baht back to 65 to the £ and we will all be over the moon

no such luck...for the past 2-3 days the USD is gaining vs the majority of currencies yet there's only 1 that's steady gaining vs the USD.... guess which one 555

[Neeranam]

4 minutes ago, Magenta408 said:

The economy was tanking well before Covid-19. Tourism was slumping and exports were all but dwindling. Everyone is using 19 as a good scapegoat. 

So true! And not only in Thailand. 

[AussieBob18]

2 hours ago, Bob12345 said:

And China is following the example of the USA: you are probably too young to remember but it was not a coincidence that the Hoover dam was build during the Great Depression. Its a Keynesian approach (named after John Maynard Keynes, a British economist) to economics where the government increases spending (and lowers taxes) to pull the economy out of a recession. Almost all countries have done it, and the biggest risk is they build useless things just to spend money (like a high-speed freight train network). 

 

The biggest difference between China and Thailand is that China makes their banks spend the money for a large part. As all banks there are in the hands of the government they have to follow the orders and dole out the money to businesses to invest. Once the businesses don't do so well and cannot be declared bankrupt (loss of face, necessary products, etc) the bank is stuck with "toxic" loans on its balance sheet that will never be repayed. Marking the loans to value (mark-to-market) will make the banks insolvent. In Thailand its the government doing the spending, and banks can still try to keep the financial market and their balance sheets healthy. The government can't really go bankrupt, as they can borrow more in the market and cover expenses by raising taxes; downside being that they had to lower taxes to stimulate the economy so a new recession might pop up. 

Good analogy Bob - sums things up well.  However, the Keynesian model is generally not used as much for a long time as the only solution, for the very reasons you mentioned - the inevitable 'white elephant' projects and that the wealthy benefit more than the average/poor.  Just take a look at all the empty shopping centres and partially used housing developments in China.  Milton Friedman's ideas are far more prevalent now - but not exclusively. The economic ideas of both Keynes and Friedman are utilised these days - as appropriate. I think it should be a balance of both.

 

After the great depression Govts learned the hard way that they cannot rely on the 'market/economy' to bring itself back from the dead. Roosevelt believed in the Keynesian model and did exactly as you said.  But he also did a lot of Friedman's focus on monetary controls - together they did the job - but mostly the Keynesian projects brought the economy back to life.

 

After the 2008/9 depression, most Govts followed the same Keynesian model, but with more expenditures towards the middle and lower classes, rather than the big projects for the big end.  The 'trickle down' theory has been disproved - not in theory - but in actual outcomes.  IMO Thailand needs to take that approach now - more railways and submarines is not what is needed.

 

[Brunolem]

26 minutes ago, thaistocks said:

This is an alarmist headline, typical of mainstream media hype. The Thai economy came to a standstill, yes just now, but as soon as things are contained it will bounce back. Its just a snapshot of what is at this very moment in time -and does not account for how quickly it will likely bounce back. The Thai SET is already projecting this, having rallied back 20% off its low point in March. That of course is not mentioned. Stock markets are always forward looking.

Stock markets don't mean s..t!

 

They are completely distorted by the actions of the central banks, especially these days. 

 

Save for CNBC and the likes, who are stock peddlers, no one actually think there will be a quick bounce back, and that even include the central banks themselves, not to mention the IMF and other official organizations. 

 

Thailand will be badly hurt, with no tourism for a long time, and probably slow exports. 

[Yinn]

6 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Two countries in the world have by far the largest number of people with communicable diseases - not just in volume but also in percentages - China and India.  Not just corona/fly viral diseases - TB as well.  And who has Thailand encouraged to come and 'spread' - the exact wrong ones - who dont spend money anything like the westerners

Chinese shop and tour more than westerners.

westerners do spend more on alcohol and sex workers.

 

 

6 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

 

 

 they are missing out big time by pushing the 'farangs' away - 

Nobody pushing farang away.

only the TVF imagination and repeat and repeat and repeat.

 

Welcome to Thailand Sir.

 

 

[graemeaylward]

UK is about to suffer it's worse recession since 1705! This was when the country was gripped by a severe winter for many months. 300+ years since that disaster, 1950 is only 70 years ago! 

Quote

Thai economy suffering worst damage since 1950s,

 

[AussieBob18]

2 hours ago, sweatalot said:

Changing to a kind and welcomeing attitude to people from the west same as from China might do the trick. If they again open to China only Thailand will belong to Chinese soon.

They already do to a large extent.  The vast majority of the wealthy in Thailand are in fact Thai-Chinese - they have as a rule a far stronger and more effectual approach to business than the Thais - in general.  That the Junta has taken that approach to things reflects that reality and themselves - the PM and most of senior leaders are more Thai-Chinese than Thai.