Covid-19: Twenty five provinces haven't had a single new case since April 2nd

[ThailandRyan]

9 minutes ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

Ha ha … someone jokes about the recent 25 Virus free provinces being in Cambodia rather than Thailand, and you take them seriously; then another poster jokes about Trat being in Cambodia, and you take them seriously.

 

You then attempt to justify your sense of humour bypass by saying they are promoting disinformation that will cause people to do unnecessary things.

 

Then you produce a truly classic line “and as much as I joke around”  …. ha ha, priceless, absolutely priceless.

And you take me seriously, thats very good to know.  It means that I met my goal for the night in pulling in another troll.... have a good evening trying to figure it all out.......

[fredwiggy]

Maybe,like some have said, the strain here is a milder version. Also, a lot of sunlight and warm weather, getting out of flu season, less people staying inside,  slows the spread. Maybe chili pepper helps. Masks are worn pretty religiously here. People aren't "huggy" like other countries. I hope for Thailand and everyone here's sake, this is true.

[NCC1701A]

13 hours ago, Soupsandy said:

There has been no cases at all in Hua Hin. I live there.

one of the every first cases of Covid19 outside of China was in Hua Hin. 

 

there have been a small number of people testing positive and hospitalized here in HH where I also live.

 

 sorry i don't have the links to the story but its out there . 

Edited April 18, 2020 by NCC1701A

[ParkerN]

Very unlikely. I don't believe a word of it.

 

I'm reminded of the old Scotsman joke where a policeman spots an old guy looking carefully for something under a street lamp. On enquiring the policeman learns the old boy is looking for his glasses. On further enquiry, the policeman further learns the old boy thinks he lost the glasses in the field opposite, and enquires (reasonably) why said old boy is looking under the street lamp. To which the old boy replies, 'because the light's better here'.

 

Like I said, I don't believe a word of it. Might be true but I think the probabilities are against it. Much more likely that they've banjaxed the data collection.

 

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by ParkerN

[johncat1]

18 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Do you believe what you posted: 

 

"if you get sick with the virus you cannot hide it from the authorities (unless you curl up & die)

& would need medical attention"

 

Have you ever lived in a province away from the city and been part of a Thai family and observed the culture when someone gets ill.  If you had you would understand that people die at home all the time surrounded by family and the government never knows until the police report is filed and the certificate of death is presented to start the other processes the family needs to do, property, etc...

 

If you have then you would not have made such a silly comment as this is and always will be a third world country, even with some of the top facilities they have here.  Very few go to the hospital except to get some meds, least of all being removed from family and when dying to not have them near......

I don't know which provinces  you are referring to. But it most certainly is not Kalasin, where hospital out-patients are packed with hundreds of people every day. I go for my H.T. check every 3 months and have to wait with up to a thousand people every time. To see a doctor for 2 minutes takes all day starting at 7 a.m.  Thai people will go to the doctors even with a common cold ( before the virus ) whether it is a hospital out-patients or a " road-side "  clinic. But as you say if people die they are dispatched very quickly. It is scary at times. Last year I visited a friend and talked to her in hospital in the morning, and went to the first day of her funeral in the afternoon. Most people when they die their bodies are sent home immediatly and funeral rites start straight away. There is never a full autopsy to determine the cause of death.  So it makes you wonder what the TRUE Covid death figures are.  Also their bodies are cremated in days so there is no way to check the cause of death.    

Edited April 18, 2020 by johncat1

[ThailandRyan]

17 minutes ago, johncat1 said:

I don't know which provinces  you are referring to. But it most certainly is not Kalasin, where hospital out-patients are packed with hundreds of people every day. I go for my H.T. check every 3 months and have to wait with up to a thousand people every time. To see a doctor for 2 minutes takes all day starting at 7 a.m.  Thai people will go to the doctors even with a common cold ( before the virus ) whether it is a hospital out-patients or a " road-side "  clinic. But as you say if people die they are dispatched very quickly. It is scary at times. Last year I visited a friend and talked to her in hospital in the morning, and went to the first day of her funeral in the afternoon. Most people when they die their bodies are sent home immediatly and funeral rites start straight away. There is never a full autopsy to determine the cause of death.  So it makes you wonder what the TRUE Covid death figures are.  Also their bodies are cremated in days so there is no way to check the cause of death.    

My point was the provincial hospitals are packed just as you indicate, and so many people after waiting the first time and being sent home have family just go pick up medicine from a pharmacy or the clinic, and the sick folks stay at home or until whatever the illness is takes them.  I never said the hospitals were empty of people waiting, it was in my prior posts where I also talked about loosing three family members at the end of this February, but I can understand some people do not see things the same way...... Sorry for the loss of your friend...

Edited April 18, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[sandyf]

19 hours ago, TheFishman1 said:

Wow no new cases unbelievable I wonder how many test they’ve done TIT

It is not a defining factor, people get symptoms become ill and die. If that was happening the hospitals would know about it.

Of course it is possible that an infected person could sit among the hundreds in the waiting room and pass it on without anyone ever being aware.

 

What is unbelievable is the reluctance for some to believe that the Thai hospitals are coping in the same manner as they did before this kicked off, unlike many other countries. 

My sister in law went for a routine doctors appointment yesterday, other than everyone wearing masks, it was just the same as any other previous appointment.

Talking of masks, we had the local government round yesterday dishing out free masks, but you would probably see that as irresponsible expense.

[mikebell]

19 hours ago, natway09 said:

My biggest concern now is the reopening of International travellers coming in to the country 

The first wave will be from China.  They will be greeted cordially.

[mindfulness]

20 hours ago, natway09 said:

If you get sick with the virus you cannot hide it from the authorities (unless you curl up & die)

& would need medical attention.

I do not see (at this stage) that massive testing is going to make any difference

By now with the 2 massive exoduses of workers from Bangkok  (first one 18 & 19 March) the figures would be showing a rise in cases. Maybe they just managed to get out in time before being infected.

What ever the reason, these figures give rise to some hope of leading a normal life in 3 months

My biggest concern now is the reopening of International travellers coming in to the country 

retriggering another wave

One more here for the De-Conditioning camp. 

Obviously blissfully oblivious of contracting it and not even showing any symptoms and with also little symptoms. 

Obviously been watching to much fear mongering on the Telly Vision   

[2 is 1]

20 hours ago, fred110 said:

Sweden did the right thing. No shut down, no disaster.

Are you from Sweden? Im from Finland and i know your txt is biggest BS ever!

They make many chances soon! But law make that hard. In many democracy coundry you have to chance law before coverment can ban nothing. Constitutional law give rights to people if you don't know that. In Finland have to chance law before close the capitol area. And now they have to reopen coz even that new law not give rights to close nomore. Even many want that!

[ParkerN]

3 hours ago, mikebell said:

The first wave will be from China.  They will be greeted cordially.

 and trigger a second wave.

 

 

[JCP108]

3 hours ago, sandyf said:

 

What is unbelievable is the reluctance for some to believe that the Thai hospitals are coping in the same manner as they did before this kicked off...

 

Yeah, I've posted on TV several times that it's possible that we are dealing with an additional 10% of illness and death here and yet that doesn't represent an overwhelming increase of hospital business from usual (thus, not triggering a social media blitz by overwhelmed hospital staff and alerting TV posters of a local pandemic). I find that reluctance to see that as a possibility unbelievable, too.

[ParkerN]

2 hours ago, JCP108 said:

Yeah, I've posted on TV several times that it's possible that we are dealing with an additional 10% of illness and death here and yet that doesn't represent an overwhelming increase of hospital business from usual (thus, not triggering a social media blitz by overwhelmed hospital staff and alerting TV posters of a local pandemic). I find that reluctance to see that as a possibility unbelievable, too.

I'd be really interested to know how many people have been infected with that the COVID-19, and have elected not to go to hospital (and as a consequence might have died at home). Having a reasonable understanding of the Thai population and Thai culture strongly suggests many people would prefer to take to their beds at home, rather than go to hospital. If this is the case then there is a good chance that the COVID-19 infection rate it Is considerably higher than is being reported by the government. The importance of mass testing cannot be overstated in my view, and I'm deeply suspicious of the incidence of infections being reported by the government. Call me a cynic.

 

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by ParkerN

[JCP108]

Yeah, under normal circumstances, it is my understanding that 60-70% of Thai people elect to die at home. I think that difference from Western cultures (where 80%+ die in hospitals) confuses some people on this forum about how to gauge what is and is not and what might be happening as interpreted from hospital business. I think a lot of Thai people could be sick and dying and not going to hospital because that's what happens here. Therefore, we're not seeing a huge uptick in hospital business even with a lot of infections.

 

Seems like a lot of people on here think that Thai people surely would be running to the hospitals in percentages that mirror the West and that hospital staff would be alerting us via social media that all those extra people where there. If extra people are going to the hospitals, could just be an extra 10-15% which wouldn't alarm any hospital in my judgment. Hospitals vary in amount of monthly business all the time and we can't assume that all Thai hospitals were 100% full at the beginning of the year anyway. Maybe there is extra business and it was handled fine.

 

An extra 10% of deaths in Thailand (with 30%-ish of those happening in hospitals) would mean an extra 5k of people dying in the country per month. Since the start of C-19, if that many extra people were dying here, that would put the raw numbers up in the same category as Italy, Spain, and France.

 

I also think a lot of people on here assume that Thai people don't feel inhibited in re going against what we all (Thai and farangs) know to be the official narrative. We posters on here flout it. But, I think Thai people are careful with what they post less they end up on the evening news being shamed in the national news shows. Worse, they could be visited by the cyber police.

[DrTuner]

I wonder.. in case of provinces, who foots the 2k/test bill?

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, ParkerN said:

I'd be really interested to know how many people have been infected with that the COVID-19, and have elected not to go to hospital (and as a consequence might have died at home).

Are you trying to say the average death toll for this period has risen by a significant amount and nobody noticed.

 

In the UK for WEEK 14 of 2020 the death toll rose from an average of 10,000 to over 16,000, 3,500 of the additional deaths were confirmed as covid-19 leaving 2,500 as an unexplained anomaly.

Do you really think that additional testing would have made any difference to those deaths. If they had wasted tests on the bodies the overall figure would still be the same.

[brewsterbudgen]

Whether the  statistics are believable or not, it seems pretty obvious that the damage being inflicted by the "lockdowns" is likely to be worse.  Time for a staggered unlocking, and hopefully this will start by 30 April.

[JCP108]

3 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Are you trying to say the average death toll for this period has risen by a significant amount and nobody noticed.

 

In the UK for WEEK 14 of 2020 the death toll rose from an average of 10,000 to over 16,000, 3,500 of the additional deaths were confirmed as covid-19 leaving 2,500 as an unexplained anomaly.

Do you really think that additional testing would have made any difference to those deaths. If they had wasted tests on the bodies the overall figure would still be the same.

In the short-term, you might be right that those tests would not have changed the figures for those particular days or weeks. However, understanding more accurately the rates of infection and the overall numbers of infections and deaths and so on can guide public policies which could have a significant impact on how many people get infected through the entire crisis.

 

Take, for example, the lockdowns (here and elsewhere)...they are based (ideally) on some understanding of what is really going on with the parameters I mentioned above (and others). If you don't have good data, then you're just shooting blind and infringing upon rights and the economy with no basis. Or, you might be doing too little and setting the populace up for an even bigger disaster.

[ParkerN]

4 hours ago, JCP108 said:

Yeah, I've posted on TV several times that it's possible that we are dealing with an additional 10% of illness and death here and yet that doesn't represent an overwhelming increase of hospital business from usual (thus, not triggering a social media blitz by overwhelmed hospital staff and alerting TV posters of a local pandemic). I find that reluctance to see that as a possibility unbelievable, too.

 

Right. And how many people who would ordinarily have gone to the hospital, would now not go to hospital on the basis that they might pick up rather more problems then they went with.  I'm pretty sure I read a comment, where one person suggested that some hospitals may have a waiting list of 1000 people. Seriously? Sounds like a great national health system.

 

It's one thing to speculate on things you don't know about. It's another thing entirely  to base those speculations on a decent understanding of human behaviour. I recommend the latter.

 

 

[JCP108]

2 hours ago, ParkerN said:

 

 

 

It's one thing to speculate on things you don't know about. It's another thing entirely  to base those speculations on a decent understanding of human behaviour. I recommend the latter.

 

 

I have a BA in sociology, a MSW in social work, a MA in philosophy, and a Ph.D. in social work...also, worked as a psychotherapist for 21 years. So, guessing that would give me the latter?

[ParkerN]

On 4/17/2020 at 5:57 PM, gamesgplayemail said:

Why arguing about something so positive ?
We are just lucky to live in Thailand and not at $hitfarangland.

Asia has now taught to the whole world who is leading.

Europe and USA should be ashame.

 

 

 

But there won't be, even if they should be. One of the realities of life living in the Third World is that you have to accept the rough with the smooth. The sooner you can come to that understanding the less puzzled and confused you'll be, and the less likely to draw comparisons between where you live and where you used to live, it's a whole different world. Just try to find a decent Mexican restaurant in Isaan and you'll see what I mean.

Edited April 18, 2020 by ParkerN

[pizzachang]

On 4/17/2020 at 2:42 PM, natway09 said:

If you get sick with the virus you cannot hide it from the authorities (unless you curl up & die)

& would need medical attention.

I do not see (at this stage) that massive testing is going to make any difference

By now with the 2 massive exoduses of workers from Bangkok  (first one 18 & 19 March) the figures would be showing a rise in cases. Maybe they just managed to get out in time before being infected.

What ever the reason, these figures give rise to some hope of leading a normal life in 3 months

My biggest concern now is the reopening of International travellers coming in to the country 

retriggering another wave

Anyone that got sick enough to go to the hospital would be tested. Anyone sick at home, but got better quickly wouldn't necessarily be tested. Anyone dying at home (under suspicious circumstances) would more than likely be checked for the presence of the virus or antibodies. This (IMO) is a much more accurate representation than to assume that there are many unreported cases in these provinces. Logically, if there were lots of unreported cases, the virus would be spreading, and after 14 days, most people will be virus free if they developed no symptoms to indicate otherwise.  "Travelers" from othere countries would naturally be the easiest to monitor for the virus - as they are in controlled situations on embarking and then arriving in Thailand. 

[sandyf]

15 hours ago, JCP108 said:

In the short-term, you might be right that those tests would not have changed the figures for those particular days or weeks. However, understanding more accurately the rates of infection and the overall numbers of infections and deaths and so on can guide public policies which could have a significant impact on how many people get infected through the entire crisis.

 

Take, for example, the lockdowns (here and elsewhere)...they are based (ideally) on some understanding of what is really going on with the parameters I mentioned above (and others). If you don't have good data, then you're just shooting blind and infringing upon rights and the economy with no basis. Or, you might be doing too little and setting the populace up for an even bigger disaster.

Basically what I have always maintained, testing does not fix anything, just an information tool. A rifle is more accurate than a shotgun, so with limited availability, targeted testing is more effective than mass testing.

 

You cannot fix a vehicle engine with a single spanner. The diagnostic facilities indicate to the mechanic the appropriate tool or tools for the job.

In this case the tools would be quarantine, lockdowns, distancing, etc.

[sandyf]

15 hours ago, ParkerN said:

I'm pretty sure I read a comment, where one person suggested that some hospitals may have a waiting list of 1000 people. Seriously? Sounds like a great national health system.

You should quote the post you are referring to as I think you are taking it out of context, someone saying they had to wait with thousands of people does not make it a fact.

Yesterday ambulances in Russia were waiting up to 9 hours to get into hospitals. In Tokyo ambulances get turned away an average of 5 times before being accepted. In the UK there is insufficient protective equipment. Countries coming into this problem late are struggling to acquire sufficient tests. Maybe you can show us a great health system

 

My sister in law went for a routine doctors appointment in BKK on Friday, other than everyone wearing masks everything else was as normal.

[sukhumvitneon]

16 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Whether the  statistics are believable or not, it seems pretty obvious that the damage being inflicted by the "lockdowns" is likely to be worse.  Time for a staggered unlocking, and hopefully this will start by 30 April.

hopefully but I'm not optimistic