Thailand's Covid-19 mortality rate among lowest in the world

[anto]

Interesting numbers out of the Netherlands i saw on Dr Campbell's YT blog .They checked 10,000 normal everyday blood donors blood for corona virus anti bodies ,and 3% had the antibody ,meaning they had the virus but many without symptoms .Then the death rate for the virus was compared to the total population of 17 and a bit million .It worked out that the virus had a mortality rate of just 0.6 % .( ie,less than 1% )

[MrHerb]

41 minutes ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

I have never had much belief in the honesty of anyone in Thailand giving me

the official numbers, after the number of cases went past 30 quickly then magically

stopped for a while. The wearing of masks especially in Bangkok, because of

the pollution has helped many people. In Canada I still see many people who will

not wear a mask or use gloves, and that is why the flattened curve has not

been reached yet, also may be the US reason as well. There are still some who

do not take the virus seriously, and who are still spreaders, as they feel healthy,

with no symptoms, so no danger from them, yes?

Geezer

Well, it's flattened here in Australia and New Zealand and there are very few people wearing masks here.

[peteski1]

1 hour ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

I have never had much belief in the honesty of anyone in Thailand giving me

the official numbers, after the number of cases went past 30 quickly then magically

stopped for a while. The wearing of masks especially in Bangkok, because of

the pollution has helped many people. In Canada I still see many people who will

not wear a mask or use gloves, and that is why the flattened curve has not

been reached yet, also may be the US reason as well. There are still some who

do not take the virus seriously, and who are still spreaders, as they feel healthy,

with no symptoms, so no danger from them, yes?

Geezer

I recently lived and worked in Thailand for over 10 years and I have to say that in my experience truth and transparency in most instances came 2nd to managing/manipulating truth to suit one's specific agenda(s).  Designed formula for criteria of measurement will effect the outcome. In simple terms one works backwards from desired outcome to formulate said outcome. An interesting and more conclusive study measuring deaths related to Covid 19 would be to begin by accounting for all deaths through the period ... and by process of elimination arrive at the 3 levels of potential truth(s), probable, most probable and those published. As many of us suspect the "most probable" number is quite likely significantly higher than what has been claimed/published.  

The wearing of masks and their effectiveness in stopping or preventing spread of a disease is directly related to (1) mask materials and design (2) how a mask is worn, and (3) how a mask is handled during and post. The same set of risk criteria and resulting effectiveness relates to gloves and any other protective clothing used as a method of protection. Although I do not and have not worked in health care I assume that this basic 3 point risk criteria (and with far more detail) is managed with great care and attention.  

From what I have read any of us are potentially asymptomatic and therefore attention to good sanitary habits with due consideration for others health and welfare should be practiced seriously wether feeling healthy or not.  

[kiwikeith]

20 hours ago, Matzzon said:

As I had said many times. The numbers presented are all we have. Of course there is always a possibility they might be wrong, I have never said that they can´t. Only produced all the difficulties in hiding or manipulating them. However, before there are any proof of any wrongdoing. Good work! Congratulations to keeping them low, and saving the life of many people.

It. May well be, Los is using a Chinese drug Favilavur, while the Fda don't approve it and Donald Duck runs for the unproven malaria drug

[brianthainess]

19 hours ago, rak sa_ngop said:

There seems to be some evidence that contrary to what is assumed, smokers actually have better survival rates from Covid-19 than non-smokers. Chinese are heavy smokers and yet the death rates from Covid-19 are relatively low.  Possibly something in Thai cigarettes that makes them safer??

Could be that people keep their distance when your smoking cigarettes.

[ParkerN]

6 hours ago, 473geo said:

Ok so if one is a selfish person with no thought for others dont wear a mask. If masks 'most useful function is to protect other people from you' then as people do not display symptoms for days wear a mask. Right? no matter the pedantic discussion on how masks protect you - proven or unproven

The argument as to whether or not masks help is not yet done. I always wear one if venturing out. In my case it's a comfort thing, it helps me to feel like I'm protected., and I suspect that's a big factor with others as well, the benefit to others is not my first thought. We are people first and nationals second; it's always sensible to consider our psychology first and our environment second, since it's our psychology which is he largest factor in determining our behaviour - always; it's the way we're built. For an example of this, examine your first sentence, which loaded the dice for the rest of what you said - also your use of the word 'pedantic' towards the end. Still, what you write and why is a matter for you and not for me. How I react to it is a matter for me though - in this case, I'll largely set it aside - mainly because of the attempts to load the dice... I'm getting too old to really be bothered ploughing through minefields that other people have constructed - with varying levels of skill..

 

Like i said, it's always sensible to consider our psychology first and foremost. Know thyself... the Greeks knew a thing or two about what was important when dealing with others. 2-bob's worth.

 

 

[ParkerN]

1 hour ago, kiwikeith said:

It. May well be, Los is using a Chinese drug Favilavur, while the Fda don't approve it and Donald Duck runs for the unproven malaria drug

Hrmmm.

 

I think I stopped taking existing drugs seriously when I saw it reported that said Donald Duck has a shareholding in the  French manufacturer Sanofi. Don't know whether or not it's true but I do know he hasn't mentioned it, or at least I haven't seen him do so, which he should have done if peddling it as a possible treatment.

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by ParkerN
Took out the last line in case any of the local kipper enthusiasts should think I'm being libellous.

[ParkerN]

13 hours ago, sucit said:

Why don't you just head off to a few of hospitals and convince yourself then?

 

There is even a video up somewhere of a nurse in New York being stopped on the street and saying the hospitals were empty and it was overblown. 

 

Been there done that (the hospitals thing) but thanks for the advice, which I know was well-meant.

 

I take little notice of  lone bloggers upping agenda-peddling posts. Actually, no, that's wrong. I take no notice of them at all. I think I'll leave that to the conspiracy theorists - I'll stick to the mainstream. One swallow doth not a summer make, even if it does have acne.

 

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by ParkerN

[NoshowJones]

19 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

Your posts are usually callous which other people seem to agree based on the replies I've seen. You were regularly banging on about the restrictions and lockdown, just look back at your posts, you realise that's the reason for the many free food queues of 100s of Thais daily.

 

As for governments, most have taken the wrong actions, not just Thailand.

 

As for it doesn't make sense, millions of Chinese visited here and no one got Corona and cases are still low. Thailand's testing has always been very low hence why they aren't releasing reliable figures

scubascuba3. Just to back you up on Matzzons posts. He made remarks about negative replies to my posts, but here are the facts. Matzzon= 2392! in less than a year. Me 400+

in nine years!!

[sandyf]

22 hours ago, Dmaxdan said:

Credit where credit is due, Unless someone can come up with some concrete evidence to prove otherwise. 

Exactly. A test would only confirm the death is virus related.

Those that claim the figures are vastly understated should be able to prove that the average mortality rate has risen significantly.

[SkyFax]

1 hour ago, ParkerN said:

the Greeks knew a thing or two about what was important when dealing with others.

Which is why they became so good at running diners.

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

3 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Exactly. A test would only confirm the death is virus related.

Those that claim the figures are vastly understated should be able to prove that the average mortality rate has risen significantly.

How should they be able to do that if they are do not have access to all the data.The data we do get doesn't match that published by many other countries like most countries have curves that can be flattened where as Thailand never had a curve but rather a series of straight lines like 1-2 cases every couple of days for weeks then we had around 100 a day for a couple of weeks now we have around 30 everyday!I personally just think it's suspicious not necessarily "vastly" understated.

[sandyf]

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

How should they be able to do that if they are do not have access to all the data.The data we do get doesn't match that published by many other countries like most countries have curves that can be flattened where as Thailand never had a curve but rather a series of straight lines like 1-2 cases every couple of days for weeks then we had around 100 a day for a couple of weeks now we have around 30 everyday!I personally just think it's suspicious not necessarily "vastly" understated.

And how does that relate exactly to the historical average mortality rate. Reality lies in the overall picture.

 

[ParkerN]

7 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

I have never had much belief in the honesty of anyone in Thailand giving me

the official numbers, after the number of cases went past 30 quickly then magically

stopped for a while. The wearing of masks especially in Bangkok, because of

the pollution has helped many people. In Canada I still see many people who will

not wear a mask or use gloves, and that is why the flattened curve has not

been reached yet, also may be the US reason as well. There are still some who

do not take the virus seriously, and who are still spreaders, as they feel healthy,

with no symptoms, so no danger from them, yes?

Geezer

Range of smartness of people is quite wide. In TL, the IQ average is 91 (some say slightly less than that). In USA, the average is (wait for it) 91. Make of that what you will, and you can make quite a lot if you have the need and the will.

 

Critical among the success criteria for COVID-19 is reasonableness, which you could argue is [atchy at best. both in TL and USA (after all, the current President got himself elected and many are now regretting that at their leisure, but lots still support him).

 

In all countries, there will be the people who know better than the medics. In some cases, it may be true but in general it just isn't.

 

People huh?

Edited April 19, 2020 by ParkerN

[rbkk]

4 minutes ago, ParkerN said:

In USA, the average is (wait for it) 91.

Source? Are you sure?....I thought it was 98, and the test adjusted every few years to maintain an average of 100. https://new-iq-test.com/iq-by-country/     https://www.healthline.com/health/average-iq 

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

And how does that relate exactly to the historical average mortality rate. Reality lies in the overall picture.

 

You should be able to present the same proof then to prove those that question the numbers are wrong.If you can't present the proof you are right then you are as bad as those who question the numbers so as they say put up or .......

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, rbkk said:

Source? Are you sure?....I thought it was 98, and the test adjusted every few years to maintain an average of 100. https://new-iq-test.com/iq-by-country/     https://www.healthline.com/health/average-iq 

I've visited 3 separate sites now and agree, its 98 for the USA and Thailand is 91 in some and 89 in another.

[Jimbo2014]

On 4/18/2020 at 10:22 AM, rooster59 said:

The Covid-19 mortality rate in Thailand is at 1.7 per cent, which is almost four times lower than the global average

I suspect this has to do with the low levels of testing only picking up severe cases.  As shown in other studies most mild and moderate cases just stay home to avoid the medical bills and actual mortality rates from the virus may be under 1%.     

[JackGats]

23 hours ago, fondue zoo said:

There are exceptions though, Indonesia comes to mind. Temperatures/weather similar to those countries and Thailand, a median age that skews younger, and comparable transit infrastructure.

 

Indonesia, population 270 million, 550 Covid deaths. Still comparatively low.

[JackGats]

22 hours ago, Krataiboy said:

Especially when it is.

 

Reporting guidelines on COVID 19 have recently been revised, resulting in many deaths being wrongly attributed to the virus. This is bound to inflate the global COVID 19 fatalities figure - with what purpose in mind one can only conjecture.

Belgium for instance officially reports ALL deaths in old people's homes ("nursing homes") as Covid deaths regardless of the cause of death. That's official policy, not some shortcoming of the counting method.

[Krataiboy]

22 minutes ago, JackGats said:

Belgium for instance officially reports ALL deaths in old people's homes ("nursing homes") as Covid deaths regardless of the cause of death. That's official policy, not some shortcoming of the counting method.

It's the same across the world, with the encouragement of the WHO. In Italy, for example, a probe into their sky-high figures revealed that only twelve percent of officially recorded COVID were actually caused by the virus. It can't be stressed enough that to die WITH the virus is not necessarily to die OF it. 

[sitanonchai]

Are these numbers provided by the TAT ? 

Maybe the field and forest burning are the cure for the virus, the bad air kills the virus.

 

[473geo]

1 hour ago, Krataiboy said:

It's the same across the world, with the encouragement of the WHO. In Italy, for example, a probe into their sky-high figures revealed that only twelve percent of officially recorded COVID were actually caused by the virus. It can't be stressed enough that to die WITH the virus is not necessarily to die OF it. 

Watching the videos of how the virus kills is useful to gain an understanding of the actual cause of death, in most cases pneumonia will kill the person, or stress on other organs due to lack of oxygen.

The root cause will be the virus contamination the body seeks to clear.

 

If no test for the virus is conducted on death, nobody is looking at the root cause.

 

[Almer]

Politicians there advisers etc need to be careful with there explanations word wide, as there will be far reaching questions after this.

[Oziex1]

When we are inundated by reports by Thai officials including those at the top, comments, statements and press releases that so often result in misunderstanding, require clarification or ludicrous backpedaling and denial.

I find it hard to accept these figures when you correlate the figures of other countries.

[Mikeasq60]

OK, million baht question. When is Thailand going to reopen so I can see my Thai wife from Prahkham? If Thailands deaths are the lowest in Asia whats the holdup with returning to normal with normal precautions and please crack down on the Chinese who dont care!

[Krataiboy]

22 minutes ago, 473geo said:

Watching the videos of how the virus kills is useful to gain an understanding of the actual cause of death, in most cases pneumonia will kill the person, or stress on other organs due to lack of oxygen.

The root cause will be the virus contamination the body seeks to clear.

 

If no test for the virus is conducted on death, nobody is looking at the root cause.

 

I agree about the need for reliable test to determine cause of death. Otherwise, as we are learning to our cost, the data ends up skewed, leading to confusion and chaos of the kind painstaking unravelled here: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1trzdmwR2M

 

[sandyf]

4 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

You should be able to present the same proof then to prove those that question the numbers are wrong.If you can't present the proof you are right then you are as bad as those who question the numbers so as they say put up or .......

If I could understand ThaI may be able to locate the relevant statistics but the figures from the UK highlight the point in question. The UK has a similar population size so all things being equal you think Thailand should also have deaths about 60% above average.

 

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 (Week 14) was 16,387; this represents an increase of 5,246 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 13) and 6,082 more than the five-year average.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

 

[FarFlungFalang]

7 minutes ago, sandyf said:

If I could understand ThaI may be able to locate the relevant statistics but the figures from the UK highlight the point in question. The UK has a similar population size so all things being equal you think Thailand should also have deaths about 60% above average.

 

Good find,and one would think Thailand would have a similar outcome with this outbreak but the figures we are getting don't come close and unless someone can find and post similar stats as you posted about the UK we will be left to guess and argue without the ability to support our arguments.If Thailand was advanced and progressive enough such statistics should not be hard to present even in english but with limited development we might have to wait for cheap widespread antibody tests to get a clearer picture of this outbreak of C19 in Thailand like the antibody tests in the link below:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, 473geo said:

Watching the videos of how the virus kills is useful to gain an understanding of the actual cause of death, in most cases pneumonia will kill the person, or stress on other organs due to lack of oxygen.

The root cause will be the virus contamination the body seeks to clear.

 

If no test for the virus is conducted on death, nobody is looking at the root cause.

 

You are quite right but there is a big difference between what should be done and what can be done.

There is not enough tests available globally and the highest testing rates, as in tests per 1 million of population, are in very small states, even Italy and Germany are well down the list with the US being about half that of Germany. It is no surprise that it is mainly poorer countries at the bottom. Thailand is fairly well off the bottom with a testing rate twice that of Japan and about 5 times that of India.

If there was an unlimited supply of tests then testing the dead would provide more accurate information but reality dictates a priority for the living.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries