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Posted

A farang with a Thai wife bought the house four doors down the soi from me around two months ago. He says he paid 10 million Baht for it, and I know the previous owner (a Thai builder) was asking for 12 million a few years ago. So is that a sign of a desperate property market, that the Thai guy had to drop the price by over 15%? Or is it a sign of a robust property market that 10 million Baht houses are still changing hands?

Posted
33 minutes ago, Guderian said:

A farang with a Thai wife bought the house four doors down the soi from me around two months ago. He says he paid 10 million Baht for it, and I know the previous owner (a Thai builder) was asking for 12 million a few years ago. So is that a sign of a desperate property market, that the Thai guy had to drop the price by over 15%? Or is it a sign of a robust property market that 10 million Baht houses are still changing hands?

3. Or is it a sign that the developer typically overpriced it in the first place with the intention of "discounting" to 10 if unable to find someone willing to pay a premium? 

 

So many questions . . . so few answers. ????

  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Guderian said:

A farang with a Thai wife bought the house four doors down the soi from me around two months ago. He says he paid 10 million Baht for it, and I know the previous owner (a Thai builder) was asking for 12 million a few years ago. So is that a sign of a desperate property market, that the Thai guy had to drop the price by over 15%? Or is it a sign of a robust property market that 10 million Baht houses are still changing hands?

Both.  There are always some desperate sellers even in good times.  And, there are always some wealthy buyers even in bad times.  

  • Like 1
Posted
9 hours ago, newnative said:

You're assuming:  (1.)  A buyer for the condo can't be found.  Not my experience. 

If that's the case, why are there thousands, yes, thousands, of properties on the market here?

 

9 hours ago, newnative said:

Depending on how fast an heir wants to sell, the condo might be sold for less than it's worth. 

Listing at fire sale prices still doesn't guarantee a willing buyer.  Pattaya may simply become an undesirable location.  Example, Costa del Sol. 

 

9 hours ago, newnative said:

But, after closing costs, it's still all gravy for the heir. 

"Gravy" only materializes if a willing buyer presents themselves, otherwise, the heir has zeroooo.  

 

9 hours ago, newnative said:

One of the nice things about Thailand condos is the very low monthly maintenance costs--it's very cheap to keep a condo here and just use it occasionally,

True.

 

9 hours ago, newnative said:

In any case, sold or unsold it is still an asset. 

Not quiet correct.  Even though condo's attract low fees and taxes here, should whoever inherits the not wish to use it, and can't sell it, or rent it out, it becomes a liability. 

 

Difficult to factor in any capital gain, or capital growth, if the property is sitting on the market for months, if not years, with no enqiries.

  • Like 1
Posted

As one poster argued quite eloquently public infrastructure investment SHOULD make property more attractive and thus more valuable.

 

Other posters have argued and quite rightly that property values nevertheless are based on supply demand relationships.

 

Only one poster touched upon another heavy influencer here and that is relative currency valuations. Since the pandemic, every currency except  the US$ has lost significant value to the THB.  The demand destruction in the world energy markets will significantly impact the economic well being of Russians and Middle Easterners.   This will limit some buyers. Then for the other non-Thai buyers, if prices stayed the same, it would represent a significant price INCREASE in their home currency.

  

I am sorry, but I believe the chance of price escalation is slim to none.

  

Another poster mention that the current pandemic is a one in a hundred year event.  Oh yeah?  Listen this damn thing is an influenza virus. There will always be new strains. What simply amazes me in that leadership the world over is bound and determined to turn the human race into Elois.

  

 

Posted
23 hours ago, Leaver said:
On 4/28/2020 at 4:15 AM, newnative said:

You're assuming:  (1.)  A buyer for the condo can't be found.  Not my experience. 

If that's the case, why are there thousands, yes, thousands, of properties on the market here?

Most of these unsold units are very expensive shoeboxes from recent condos. Way too many of them.

I sold my 50 sqm studio condo in January this year.

I had no shortage of interested buyers visiting it in December & January,

and at the end 2 guys wanting to buy, so I sold at a good price (for me). ????

The condo market is not dead, but yes expensive shooeboxes are hard to sell.

BTW: very happy to have sold before Covid-19... Can't be good for real estate.

  • Like 2
Posted
4 minutes ago, Pattaya46 said:

Most of these unsold units are very expensive shoeboxes from recent condos. Way too many of them.

I sold my 50 sqm studio condo in January this year.

I had no shortage of interested buyers visiting it in December & January,

and at the end 2 guys wanting to buy, so I sold at a good price (for me). ????

The condo market is not dead, but yes expensive shooeboxes are hard to sell.

BTW: very happy to have sold before Covid-19... Can't be good for real estate.

"not dead but hard to sell."  So, nearly dead.  ????

 

When the crisis has come to pass, many things will be described as pre-corona and post-corona.  Property will be one of them.  

  • Like 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, Leaver said:

"not dead but hard to sell."  So, nearly dead.  ????

You cut my quote. It's not what I said. :closedeyes:

Any decent condo is not hard to sell  (or at least was before Covid)

The selling problem is for the thousand of tiny 22-32 sqm units.

  • Like 1
Posted
5 minutes ago, Pattaya46 said:

You cut my quote. It's not what I said. :closedeyes:

Any decent condo is not hard to sell  (or at least was before Covid)

The selling problem is for the thousand of tiny 22-32 sqm units.

I think you will find the virus will have a big impact on property here, particularly the rental market, and will do for quite sometime.

 

Historical sales and values will mean little here in the future. They meant very little even before the virus, so they will be near useless now, and into the future.     

  • Like 1
Posted
43 minutes ago, Pattaya46 said:

Most of these unsold units are very expensive shoeboxes from recent condos. Way too many of them.

I sold my 50 sqm studio condo in January this year.

I had no shortage of interested buyers visiting it in December & January,

and at the end 2 guys wanting to buy, so I sold at a good price (for me). ????

The condo market is not dead, but yes expensive shooeboxes are hard to sell.

BTW: very happy to have sold before Covid-19... Can't be good for real estate.

     Congratulations on your sale.  I had buyers, as well, during that period and into February and March.  There were buyers then and there will be buyers once again when the virus is sorted.  And, renters.  Friends of mine rented their house for a year in February. 

     People are still around but there will definitely be a slow period for real estate for quite awhile--glad you got your sale in.  I agree that a lot of the unsold condos are small units in new or newer projects, likely many in all the low-rise mega theme park projects that seem to be suited more for tourists than residents.  I think too many of those projects were built.

     The number of unsold condos doesn't bother me.  Supposedly, it is 20,000.  The point I always make is there are never 20,000 condos for sale like mine when I have a condo on the market for sale.  If there were, then I would be worried.  

     It was the same with your condo sale--you weren't competing with 20,000 other condos for sale, either.  Your buyers likely wanted something bigger than a shoebox--so that automatically eliminated a lot of the smaller unsuitable condos on the market.  Likely they wanted to be in the area where your condo is--many more condos for sale drop out when a location preference is added.  They likely had a maximum price--more condos drop out.  And, so on as other preferences are figured in.   When their preferences are all put in, they get those 20,000 condos down to a manageable number to go look at--and find your condo.  

   

  • Like 2
Posted
On 4/27/2020 at 1:30 AM, Henryford said:

Are they inflated. I bought my condo in 2006 and i suspect that if i sold it now i would be lucky to get the same amount back. Any other property in the world not gone up in value in 14 years?

Are you taking into account the current exchange rates?

  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
On 4/27/2020 at 7:12 PM, wolf81 said:

I guess the Thai market is very different compared to the Western markets and there's a decent chance our Western assumptions might not be valid here.

The market is not different at all, it is just topping the bubble out before crashing, wait and see. They said the same in 2008 in the west, same arguments and nonsense. Most property worldwide is earned by corporations, cash, didn't stop the crash, so that also kills the cash buyer Thailand argument you made.
Right now it is the same again in the Netherlands as well, prices can't stop rising and everything looks perfect. Until it does not.

The big difference with the coming crisis is that is not just 1 thing but everything at the same time: bonds, stock markets and the housing market.
All though, the biggest money heists and printing scams took place as of COVID-19, which could be another scam to delay this crash, but not for Thailand.

You know <deleted> is on when gold is rising towards the predicted 2000 USD barrier within 2-3 years.

Edited by ChaiyaTH
  • Like 1
Posted

The elephant in the room here is the forthcoming property tax.  Now the Thai gov. will find this is a incredibly easy tax to collect,especially amongst absent Farang owners,just as UK debates this too.. Will start low ,but it will be up there with heavy payers in year or two to come

Posted
On 4/30/2020 at 2:06 PM, bert bloggs said:

but anyway when i am gone ,our son and his girlfriend will move here ,my wife will more than likely go back to her town where she owns land ,and take over her mums house ,so to be honest my feelings are i could not care less if it goes up or down ,its our home. And one day it will be our sons home .

What if your wife or son wanted to, or needed to sell it?

Posted
3 minutes ago, bert bloggs said:

Then if they needed to sell it so would i , so we would sell it ,ive been married a long time ,our son runs a company and has another house , i trust them with more than my life .????

My point being, if you, your wife, or your son, wanted to, or needed to, sell the property, it goes onto the same stagnant property market as everyone else's property.  

 

I understand it's YOUR home, but after you are gone, who's to say it's a house that your wife or son will call "home?"

  • Like 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, Leaver said:

My point being, if you, your wife, or your son, wanted to, or needed to, sell the property, it goes onto the same stagnant property market as everyone else's property.  

 

I understand it's YOUR home, but after you are gone, who's to say it's a house that your wife or son will call "home?"

After i have gone its not my problem ,but i take it what your saying is ,that its better to rent ,than to own as you could get stuck with it ,well my wife and her family are not poor ,she actually owns quite a lot of land ,plus one valuable building plot ,our son earns quite a high salary ,actually when you add his girlfriends to it (she owns land) most falangs would like their income .so all in all if they have to sell ,then they would be in financial trouble ,what can i say? he has the mortgage on the property .

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Posted
17 minutes ago, bert bloggs said:

After i have gone its not my problem ,but i take it what your saying is ,that its better to rent ,than to own as you could get stuck with it ,well my wife and her family are not poor ,she actually owns quite a lot of land ,plus one valuable building plot ,our son earns quite a high salary ,actually when you add his girlfriends to it (she owns land) most falangs would like their income .so all in all if they have to sell ,then they would be in financial trouble ,what can i say? he has the mortgage on the property .

I'm not saying it's better to rent.  You bought, and made the place your home.  I have no problem with that.

 

You mentioned when you are gone, your wife will move back to her mother's place, and your son will move in, despite having his own house.  No problem with any of that, either.

 

Merely saying, even well loved and well maintained "homes" are sold at some stage, usually by the next generation.  Selling any property here is difficult, and will be more difficult for some years to come.  

 

A lot of the older guys living here say the property is the wife or girlfriend's when they are gone.  The property is their inheritance.  Like your wife, they will want to move back to their family also.  

 

Renting out property and selling property is very difficult here now, and is set to become more difficult in the future.  If the property can't be liquidated, that means, they aren't really leaving anything.  

 

A property here only has a real baht value when it is actually sold for cash baht.  Anything else, and it's just numbers on a real estates advertisement.

Posted
30 minutes ago, Central Pattaya said:

Well done a real man with integrity, something sadly lacking here. Don't listen to the jealous not it all got nothings you're not like them.

Since when has the property market, anywhere, got anything to do with being "a"real man?"

Posted
9 minutes ago, Leaver said:

I'm not saying it's better to rent.  You bought, and made the place your home.  I have no problem with that.

 

You mentioned when you are gone, your wife will move back to her mother's place, and your son will move in, despite having his own house.  No problem with any of that, either.

 

Merely saying, even well loved and well maintained "homes" are sold at some stage, usually by the next generation.  Selling any property here is difficult, and will be more difficult for some years to come.  

 

A lot of the older guys living here say the property is the wife or girlfriend's when they are gone.  The property is their inheritance.  Like your wife, they will want to move back to their family also.  

 

Renting out property and selling property is very difficult here now, and is set to become more difficult in the future.  If the property can't be liquidated, that means, they aren't really leaving anything.  

 

A property here only has a real baht value when it is actually sold for cash baht.  Anything else, and it's just numbers on a real estates advertisement.

I get your point ,but we have lived here quite a time and it seems  that if a house here comes on the market they do seem to sell quite quickly ,as its in a good location for business people ,still i hope i will be around and living here quite a few years yet . 

  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, HashBrownHarry said:

Totally agree, if correct location and prepared to negotiate property is easy to sell / rent in Pattaya.

I accept that, and agree, however, have you considered Pattaya, as whole, as a city, in Thailand, is becoming a less desired location, pre virus?  

 

Western expats and tourists just aren't in the market, in the numbers, as they used to be.   

Posted
2 hours ago, bert bloggs said:

I get your point ,but we have lived here quite a time and it seems  that if a house here comes on the market they do seem to sell quite quickly ,as its in a good location for business people ,still i hope i will be around and living here quite a few years yet . 

 

That's my experience where I live as well, I think I'm in a good location and it's a well managed and maintained low rise development. Not many units come on the market but they seem to sell when they do and not for fire sale prices either. It's a different propositon to the huge developments with hundreds of shoe box units. 

 

 

  • Like 2
Posted
1 hour ago, Leaver said:

I accept that, and agree, however, have you considered Pattaya, as whole, as a city, in Thailand, is becoming a less desired location, pre virus?  

 

Western expats and tourists just aren't in the market, in the numbers, as they used to be.   

You may be right but I thought Western expats and tourists long since ceased to be the primary market for Pattaya real estate. I expect the current situation will just speed up the complete transition to a Chinese dominated market.  They can surely be the only one who have the numbers to fill large new developments either by purchase or AirBnb hotel model. A few months of sbutdown won't delay the inevitable. 

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