covid-19 tests

[tlock]

I do think that testing is likely to uncover more cases, my logic brain tells me that.  

 

Testing was pretty limited for swine flu, only 1.6 million confirmed cases, but they estimated 700 million to 1.4 billion people actually had it.  

 

I guess I'm repeating myself, but I think we need to switch the focus from the number of infections to monitoring hospital overcrowding and excess mortality.  We absolutely would have locked down for H1N1 in the current political environment.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic

 

The number of confirmed cases was approximately 1.6 million.^[6] However, some studies estimated that the actual number including asymptomatic and mild cases could be 700 million to 1.4 billion people—or 11 to 21 percent of the global population of 6.8 billion at the time.^[12] The lower value of 700 million is more than the 500 million people estimated to have been infected by the Spanish flu pandemic.^[13]

 

 

 

[vermin on arrival]

On 5/8/2020 at 6:29 PM, mauGR1 said:

Not sure what you mean, although i guess you're keeping up with the news.

I was referring to something i read about the scientist/s who invented the test, and they were saying that the test is only 80% reliable IF performed correctly.

Sorry, too lazy to look for links.

Taiwan had developed tests 90+% reliable, one which only takes 10 minutes. They need to get them into mass production asap.

[mauGR1]

3 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

Taiwan had developed tests 90+% reliable, one which only takes 10 minutes. They need to get them into mass production asap.

Certified by WHO ?

[vermin on arrival]

8 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Certified by WHO ?

Hell no. Taiwan has been ahead of the curve of the WHO all the way through this pandemic. WHO will not allow Taiwan's participation due to a secret memorandum with mainland China since 2005. I put my faith in Taiwan's NHS and CECC over the WHO every day of the week. The WHO will not even discuss anything happening in Taiwan due to its slavish devotion to China:

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3931893

Title of article  "Secret 2005 memorandum of understanding between China-WHO keeps Taiwan outside WHA

Taiwan’s chances of participating in WHA remain slim despite international support"

 

Edited May 11, 2020 by vermin on arrival

[vermin on arrival]

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3930271

 

Taiwan develops 10-minute coronavirus test kit

Taiwanese company's 10-minute coronavirus antibody test kit ready for mass production

[vermin on arrival]

and also another taiwanese company: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3917201

 

Taiwan invents 1-hour coronavirus test kit with 90% accuracy

Taiwan's new rapid test kit far more accurate than made-in-China version

[vermin on arrival]

People don't realize that Taiwan is one of the most advanced societies in the world in health care and were probably the most prepared for this epidemic. It punches well above it's weight in health care system and medical research. And fyi covid cases 440 deaths 7. No lockdown.

[Puccini]

56 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Certified by WHO ?

Question: Has the World Health Organisation certified any test for SARS-CoV-19?

 

Answer: No.

[mauGR1]

1 minute ago, Puccini said:

Question: Has the World Health Organisation certified any test for SARS-CoV-19?

 

Answer: No.

I am skeptical on the accuracy of the tests, but the poster i was replying to, said that there is a new one.

I have been reading and listening a lot during these weeks, and i'm growing more skeptical everyday.

Something is fishy, and i'm not referring just to the tests.

[vermin on arrival]

18 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

I am skeptical on the accuracy of the tests, but the poster i was replying to, said that there is a new one.

I have been reading and listening a lot during these weeks, and i'm growing more skeptical everyday.

Something is fishy, and i'm not referring just to the tests.

Yes, these are both new tests. I trust what comes out of Taiwan. It is a a democratic country whose response to the pandemic has been one of transparency. It reported that there was human to human transmission in Wuhan in the early days and was brushed aside by the WHO and China. I believe it was the first nation to close it's borders to mainland Chinese(maybe HK and Macao too) when the WHO was saying it was unnecessary at great cost to itself since Chinese are their number 1 tourists.

[vermin on arrival]

25 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

I am skeptical on the accuracy of the tests, but the poster i was replying to, said that there is a new one.

I have been reading and listening a lot during these weeks, and i'm growing more skeptical everyday.

Something is fishy, and i'm not referring just to the tests.

on the 10 minute test: "Chen claims that the test has 100 percent sensitivity and 95 specificity, reported BCC News. Hsieh Szu-min (謝思民), project manager and infectious disease specialist from NTUH, said that its high level of sensitivity was demonstrated by the fact that it detected antibodies in 13 coronavirus patients tested."

[Puccini]

37 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

I am skeptical on the accuracy of the tests, but the poster i was replying to, said that there is a new one.

I have been reading and listening a lot during these weeks, and i'm growing more skeptical everyday.

Something is fishy, and i'm not referring just to the tests.

The test being developed in Taiwan accordidng to the news article is a "nucleic acid test", ie of the type suggested by the WHO.

 

Quote

Rapid collection and testing of appropriate specimens from patients meeting the suspect case definition for COVID-19 is a priority for clinical management and outbreak control and should be guided by a laboratory expert. Suspect cases should be screened for the virus with nucleic acid amplification tests (NAAT), such as RT-PCR.

Source: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331329/WHO-COVID-19-laboratory-2020.4-eng.pdf

 

[Maestro]

Removed off-topic posts and the replies to them.

[Sunderland]

11 May 2020

 

Total number of PUI in Thailand

103,858

 

Total number of new PUI in Thailand

3,454

 

As of today the total number of PUI since January is 103,858 which includes people who were positive, negative or never tested due to not meeting the criteria that was set by the people in charge of setting the criteria for testing. This at least gives us an idea that approaching 0.15% of the population of Thailand may have been tested. Not sure about the other 99.85%. It is worth remembering that some of those who were found to be consistently negative or never tested, could still require testing in the future.

Even allowing for many asymptomatic cases, it appears logical that Thailand is nowhere near achieving herd immunity, and a subsequent wave still remains a real possibility. That said, the low numbers of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 remains low, the hospitals are not overflowing and Thailand is in much better shape at the moment than many other countries. 

There's still a long way to go. I am not, and never have been a fan of the current government. But I would generously award them 6/10 for their efforts to slow down the spread of the virus in Thailand. Not perfect for sure, and many mistakes have still been made. However, they haven't bungled things as badly as Boris Johnson and the Conservative government in my home country. 

 

Going forward Thailand's 2 biggest obstacles will be controlling a population bitten by the economic downturn and at the same time trying to maintain a lid on virus cases, which could spike once again during the upcoming flu season.

 

 

 

 

[Sunderland]

1 hour ago, vermin on arrival said:

Yes, these are both new tests. I trust what comes out of Taiwan. It is a a democratic country whose response to the pandemic has been one of transparency. It reported that there was human to human transmission in Wuhan in the early days and was brushed aside by the WHO and China. I believe it was the first nation to close it's borders to mainland Chinese(maybe HK and Macao too) when the WHO was saying it was unnecessary at great cost to itself since Chinese are their number 1 tourists.

I agree. Taiwan has been one of the true successes in the fight against the spread of COVID-19. I have only been there once, but it is a really friendly country - not territory or region. I have also visited China 3 times, and the contrast between the two places in the way that people try to deal with foreigners is night and day.

[Maestro]

2 hours ago, vermin on arrival said:

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3930271

 

Taiwan develops 10-minute coronavirus test kit

Taiwanese company's 10-minute coronavirus antibody test kit ready for mass production

A test for antibodies is not a test for SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing Covid-19.

[vermin on arrival]

18 minutes ago, Maestro said:

A test for antibodies is not a test for SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing Covid-19.

However the second one test for the virus: 1 hour 90% effective. Their work is clearly moving in the right direction.

 

and also another taiwanese company: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3917201

 

Taiwan invents 1-hour coronavirus test kit with 90% accuracy

Taiwan's new rapid test kit far more accurate than made-in-China version

 

Also, if you have no antibodies, would you not be infected? How long does it take the antibodies to develop? Or maybe could just be in the very early stages.

Edited May 11, 2020 by vermin on arrival

[White Christmas13]

On 5/8/2020 at 6:12 PM, jimn said:

Absolutely 100% right, I have given up arguing with all the so called self appointed experts on Thai Visa who think they know best. They cant get past their own prejudice opinion about Thailand. Some are bitter about having to go home and the rest are unhappy about being over here. I know exactly where I would rather be during this crisis and its over here. Never have I felt that the virus has taken hold in a major way in Thailand because of the heat and humidity. This together with mask wearing, Thais not being tactile people, temperature checks and hand sanitiser everywhere.

What is the normal temperature of India? Temperatures average around 32–40 °C (90–104 °F) in most of the interior.   India Confirmed 67,152 +3,277    Recovered 20,917 Deaths 2,206

[ukrules]

23 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

However the second one test for the virus: 1 hour 90% effective. Their work is clearly moving in the right direction.

 

and also another taiwanese company: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3917201

 

Taiwan invents 1-hour coronavirus test kit with 90% accuracy

Taiwan's new rapid test kit far more accurate than made-in-China version

 

Also, if you have no antibodies, would you not be infected? How long does it take the antibodies to develop? Or maybe could just be in the very early stages.

There's a few high 99.x% level accuracy tests now.

 

Abbot makes one with 99.9% accuracy, Quotient in Scotland (Swiss company) apparently make one with 99.8% accuracy.

 

I believe these are lab based tests. If they can do it then others can too.

 

These are new and accurate enough for widespread serological surveys.

[Puccini]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

Abbot makes one with 99.9% accuracy, Quotient in Scotland (Swiss company) apparently make one with 99.8% accuracy.

Both are antibody tests, not SARS-CoV-2 tests.

 

Abbott: https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2020-05-08-Research-from-University-of-Washington-Demonstrates-High-Performance-of-Abbotts-SARS-CoV-2-Antibody-Blood-Test

 

Quotient: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/05/11/2030728/0/en/Quotient-Limited-and-hVIVO-Announce-Partnership-to-Support-Wide-Spread-COVID-19-Antibody-Testing-in-the-UK.html

[Puccini]

What is the difference between a test for SARS-CoV-2 test and a test for antibodies:

 

https://www.nationaljewish.org/patients-visitors/patient-info/important-updates/coronavirus-information-and-resources/patient-care/covid-19-testing-antibody-diagnostic/the-difference-between-tests-for-covid-19

 

https://www.mdanderson.org/publications/cancerwise/7-things-to-know-about-coronavirus-COVID19-antibody-testing.h00-159381156.html

 

Note: The first of the above-linked web pages uses Covid-19 to mean SARS-CoV-2.

Edited May 11, 2020 by Puccini
added second link

[kingdong]

On 5/8/2020 at 11:12 AM, jimn said:

Absolutely 100% right, I have given up arguing with all the so called self appointed experts on Thai Visa who think they know best.Never have I felt that the virus has taken hold in a major way in Thailand because of the heat and humidity. This together with mask wearing, Thais not being tactile people, temperature checks and hand sanitiser everywhere.

And you,'re not a self styled expert?

[ukrules]

35 minutes ago, Puccini said:

Both are antibody tests, not SARS-CoV-2 tests.

I know. The problem with antibody tests before was that they were very inaccurate, this has now been corrected.

 

Widespread and accurate serological surveys can now begin.

[jimn]

10 hours ago, White Christmas13 said:

What is the normal temperature of India? Temperatures average around 32–40 °C (90–104 °F) in most of the interior. India Confirmed 67,152 +3,277    Recovered 20,917 Deaths 2,206

 

Not a good idea to use India to try and prove your arguement. I have worked in India many times, do you know the population is 1.353 Billion people. Most of these people suffer extreme poverty and live in very close proximity, many in slums. They only have 51 cases per 1 million population and 2 deaths per 1 million population. I would say their numbers are very low, when compared to the colder climates of the world. You always have to look at cases and deaths per 1 million population, not just the overall number of cases.

[jimn]

9 hours ago, kingdong said:

And you,'re not a self styled expert?

No far from it. I just quote numbers and use a common sense argument in an attempt to prove a point of view. I have looked at some of the posts by the doom merchants and they cant see beyond the end of their own nose and their own prejuduce.

[vermin on arrival]

well taiwan's 1 hour test with 90% accuracy is a virus test, which is good news

[Puccini]

On 5/11/2020 at 5:20 PM, vermin on arrival said:

However the second one test for the virus: 1 hour 90% effective. Their work is clearly moving in the right direction.

 

and also another taiwanese company: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3917201

When I clicked through to that article for the first time after you gave the link in post #35 I stopped reading when, in the second line, I saw the reference to "the virus that causes Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19)", a name that I had never seen before used in connection with the coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

 

Having read the full article now I see that the mention, further down in the article, that "the new test kit will analyze it for the presence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19" suggests that the newly developed test may be using the PCR laboratory technique with nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swabs to detect the presence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), but it would be useful to have a clarification on that.

 

The name "the virus that causes Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19)" used in the news article is remotely akin to one of the two dumbed-down names for SARS-CoV-2 the WHO appears to be using "when communicating with the public", whom they seem to deem insufficiently intelligent to understand correctly the abbreviated names SARS-CoV-2 for the virus and COVID-19 for the disease.

Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it

 

[Maestro]

Removed an off-topic post.