Thai economy set bottom-out after Government reopens some businesses

[snoop1130]

Thai economy set bottom-out after Government reopens some businesses

 

A general view shows an empty street in Bangkok on April 3, 2020, ahead of a nationwide night curfew aimed at stemming the spread of the COVID-19 novel coronavirus. (Photo by Mladen ANTONOV / AFP)

 

The Thai economy has reached its low point, with the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to contract by 3% to 5%, instead of 1.5-2% as originally estimated, and exports will shrink between 5% and 10%. The inflation rate is expected hover between 0 and -1.5%, all according to Mr. Suphan Mongkolsuthee, president of the Federation of Thai Industries and chairman of the private sector joint committee.

 

He explained that the Thai economy reached its low point as the Government eases lockdown restrictions on several business and leisure activities which, he said, will gradually improve the economy.

 

The grim projections are based on the assumption that there will not be a second round of the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand, said Mr. Suphan.

 

He cautioned that, even if the COVID-19 situation in Thailand improves satisfactorily, economic recovery will take a long time, citing the fact that the disease is still spreading in several countries, rendering the quick recovery of tourism and related industries almost impossible.

 

He added that a global economic recession will dampen Thailand’s export prospects.

 

The Federation of Thai Industries, the Thai Bankers Association and the Thai Chamber of Commerce have recently proposed a package of 34 measures to the Government, aimed at cushioning the impacts of COVID-19 on private businesses.

 

The package includes the waiving of corporate tax for SMEs for three years, reduction of fees for land ownership transfers and refunds of electricity meter installation charges for SMEs using 50 amp meters.

 

Mr. Suphan said that the three private sector bodies will encourage private businesses to buy more agricultural products, such as fruit and vegetables, from farmers.

 

Source: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-economy-set-bottom-out-after-government-reopens-some-businesses/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2020-05-08

 

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[OnTheGround]

8 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

The Thai economy has reached its low point

Not by a mile, I think. Prepare for further decline in most sectors.

9 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

forecast to contract by 3% to 5%,

For Thailand sake I hope he is right, but again, not a realistic outlook.

11 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

The grim projections are based on the assumption that there will not be a second round of the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand, said Mr. Suphan.

Not even the worlds expert know this, in fact they repeatedly warn about high risk for a second wave.

 

I admire thai peoples positive outlook on the future. But in this unprecedented time, where no one has the answers, more realistic prognoses for next 2 years, would be advisable.

Unless one want to feed the population candy, when 1930's depression is more likely.

 

[Thailand]

A little optimistic one would think!

[Isaan sailor]

Take a look at the world’s reserve currency, the USD.  Baht/USD up almost 3% in three weeks.  I don’t see any recovery at all.  In fact, Thai economy will probably sink further.

[hotchilli]

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Thai economy has reached its low point, with the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to contract by 3% to 5%, instead of 1.5-2% as originally estimated, and exports will shrink between 5% and 10%. The inflation rate is expected hover between 0 and -1.5%, all according to Mr. Suphan Mongkolsuthee, president of the Federation of Thai Industries and chairman of the private sector joint committee.

Thailands love affair with sugar coating ....

[brain150]

With Tourism making 20% GDP per year it's roughly 1.67% per month !
Being down 75% for just 3 month would lower total GDP by 3.75%

 

... that's 3.75% decline in GDP if no other sector is affected in just 3 month !
With tourism probably being down 50% for 2020 it's 10% of GDP lost in the tourism sector alone !

Seems like maths is not a strong subject in Thailand !

 

The US is talking -20% to -40% and Europe has about the same numbers.

... it's going to be a long and cold winter out there !!!

[jingjai9]

The big question - when do you let foreign tourists back in? As the economy suffers the temptation grows.

 

[Greenhill]

Mr Suphan should talk to Mr Somkid, Finance Minister where he might learn a little zbout the real world!!  Mr Somkid says the 2nd quarter will be much worse than the 1st!  Quite a thing to say here, where the Govt usually talks things up!!