Do the numbers equate to locking down the whole world?

[kingdong]

1 hour ago, tlock said:

Ah I understand- so you estimate there are actually 3 million covid deaths in the last 3 months?  I'd be scared too if I thought that.

 

When did 300,000= 3 million? 3,000.000 is 3 million.

[chessman]

8 hours ago, tlock said:

Ah I understand- so you estimate there are actually 3 million covid deaths in the last 3 months?  I'd be scared too if I thought that.

 No, I think the focus on Covid means that they are missing less deaths than they did with Swine flu. There are excess deaths in the developed countries worst hit but they are not double. In less developed countries with worse health infrastructure it could be much more than double but a lot of these countries are reporting low figures so if you multiply their numbers by ten you still get fairly low numbers. My best guess would be that the true number of deaths are between double and triple the official count of 300,000ish.

[chessman]

7 hours ago, Monomial said:

Why does everyone keep worrying about the death toll? It is going to be whatever it is going to be.

You are right of course, if the death doll is 300,000 or 600,000 or 900,000 it doesn’t fundamentally change the argument.

 

in terms of psychology it interests me though. People who were against the lockdown initially and wish to open up immediately will trust any argument that leads in that direction. People are still trying to argue that the numbers of dead are inflated... Well, just as there is very strong evidence that the mortality rate is lower than initially thought, there is also strong evidence that the number of deaths is being underestimated. People should be willing to accept that both are likely to be true.

[Kinnock]

14 hours ago, Mama Noodle said:

No, that is not the WHO saying the death rate is 30 - 40 times more deadly than flu. That’s you doing your own math with numbers you don’t understand. 
 

Shouldn’t be too hard to find a real quote if there’s legitimate scientific consensus. Which you can seem to do.

Several reports in The Lancet since February to now estimate the case fatality rate at 0.2% to 0.9% for COVID-19, but all have to rely on estimates of actual case numbers because of the high numbers on unreported cases with mild symptoms.  Also, there's no single methodrecording actual cause of death.  If a terminallu ill cancer patient in hospital catches COVID, and this accelerates death by a week, what's the cause?  The flu stats also rely on estimates - so the only sure fact is that we don't know.  Latest Lancet report this week is looking at 'Total excess deaths' - but their answer seems to be 'depends on the country'.

 

But what is clear is that some national governments have a vested interest in the figures, so take advantage of the many assumptions in the estimates.

 

Thailand and UK have the same population size - Thailand started sooner - 35,000 vs 57.

 

One factor will be that UK. Europe, US need the highest possible number to justify the massive economic damage caused by their policies, whereas Thailand needs a low number to restart tourism.

[Maestro]

Removed a troll post.

[steelepulse]

So the numbers are pointing out the fact that in reality, the numbers for covid is very very small and if you look at the fatality rates above normal for a given year, the hype and news presented is way overblown.

 

IFR is .01-.03, falling in line with flu numbers, even considering the fact that most deaths are from elderly,  obese, diabetics, or people that have multiple comorbidities.

 

 

[yuyiinthesky]

On 5/14/2020 at 5:09 PM, steelepulse said:

Does this make sense to lock down the whole world?

Not at all!

[daveAustin]

So the lockdowns worked then? These topics keeping popping up and are extremely lame to be fair as they lack proper thought process. All those on your list are knowns and are set so to speak. They will always happen, are 'controlled' and accepted. The problem with covid - and other past viruses - is the unknown and curve ball potential that could wreck society. Lockdowns suck and I hate it with a passion, but if it all fizzles out, then it's a winner right. Hindsight is a wonderful thing of course, and think things should have been left to run and old people locked away until the vaccine was ready. But I'm not the one to make that call and potentially risk millions.