Thailand tourism to contract by 1.69 trillion baht this year – Kasikorn Research

[webfact]

Thailand tourism to contract by 1.69 trillion baht this year – Kasikorn Research

 

Passengers attempt to observe social distancing as a preventive measure against the spread of the COVID-19 novel coronavirus as they ride in a BTS commuter train during rush hour in Bangkok on May 8, 2020. (Photo by Mladen ANTONOV / AFP)

 

The Thai tourism sector is forecast to suffer a revenue reduction, estimated at 1.69 trillion baht this year, due to the COVID-10 pandemic and the weak purchasing power of tourists, according to the Kasikorn Research Centre.

 

It also said that, although the Thai tourism sector may begin to recover next year, it still has a long way to go to return to the pre-coronavirus level, as several lockdown measures will remain for public safety, such as strict screening of in-bound and out-bound travelers and social distancing.

 

Tourism operators, said the research centre, must adjust their service format and focus on safety in hotels, at tourist destinations and when travelling, online check-ins, temperature screenings and avoidance of contact with others.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailand-tourism-to-contract-by-1-69-trillion-baht-this-year-kasikorn-research/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2020-05-25

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[ozz1]

How the hell are they going to get near that figure with whats going on there dreaming  no flights baht being persistently high no borders open yet they must know something no one else knows about or they have consulted that tat fortune teller

[Greg O]

They as well as TAT are locked in the same delusional stupor I reckon..Must be some good stuff they're smokin ! 

[dsj]

1 hour ago, ozz1 said:

How the hell are they going to get near that figure with whats going on there dreaming  no flights baht being persistently high no borders open yet they must know something no one else knows about or they have consulted that tat fortune teller

Also if tourists needs a medical certificate, that will also keep the numbers down, as I believe you can't get a certificate right now.

[Geoffggi]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

such as strict screening of in-bound and out-bound travelers and social distancing.

Does this include Thailand's favourite tourists........LOL

[Blumpie]

Look at them slowly change their statements.  

May recover next year.  Yeah, we all saw that coming.

There will be no tourism this year, full stop.  No country is foolish enough to let their residents to return from any vacation during a pandemic.  

[JensenZ]

1 hour ago, ozz1 said:

How the hell are they going to get near that figure with whats going on there dreaming  no flights baht being persistently high no borders open yet they must know something no one else knows about or they have consulted that tat fortune teller

The 1.69 trillion THB is an estimated loss, not profit. Approximately USD 53 billion.

 

Finally it took some bank executives to paint the real picture as TAT officials continue to talk the recovery up.

[fcgprg]

2 hours ago, ozz1 said:

How the hell are they going to get near that figure with whats going on there dreaming  no flights baht being persistently high no borders open yet they must know something no one else knows about or they have consulted that tat fortune teller

Revenue Reduction not Increase is what is forecast.

[Trillian]

27 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

The 1.69 trillion THB is an estimated loss, not profit. Approximately USD 53 billion.

 

Working the number back it looks as though USD 53 bill. is about 10% of Thai GDP USD 505 bill.). Tourism is valued at about USD 75 bill. so a loss of two thirds of tourist revenue is forecast. TAT on the other hand forecasts 16 million visitors this year so again, a loss of roughly one third (40 mill.).

 

It kinda looks as though Kasikorn Research simply extrapolated TAT's figures so I'm not sure it's meanigful.

[fred110]

1 hour ago, dsj said:

Also if tourists needs a medical certificate, that will also keep the numbers down, as I believe you can't get a certificate right now.

And 2 weeks in quarantine! ????

[Henryford]

1 hour ago, Geoffggi said:

Does this include Thailand's favourite tourists........LOL

The Chinese will be exempt from any restrictions. Xi has confirmed there is no virus in China.

[baansgr]

Mummy, "let's go to the beach, can I take my rubber ring"....."no son, but don't forget your mask and sanitiser"

Like anyone wants to travel

[JensenZ]

22 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Working the number back it looks as though USD 53 bill. is about 10% of Thai GDP USD 505 bill.). Tourism is valued at about USD 75 bill. so a loss of two thirds of tourist revenue is forecast. TAT on the other hand forecasts 16 million visitors this year so again, a loss of roughly one third (40 mill.).

 

It kinda looks as though Kasikorn Research simply extrapolated TAT's figures so I'm not sure it's meanigful.

Using your figures, assuming tourism was only normal for the first 2 months of this year, and assuming there won't be tourists to count until next year, the loss they are predicting could be optimistic.

[Trillian]

5 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

Using your figures, assuming tourism was only normal for the first 2 months of this year, and assuming there won't be tourists to count until next year, the loss they are predicting could be optimistic.

I think it would be a mistake to think there will be no tourists this year, it's almost certain there will be and we may all be surprised at just how many.

[JensenZ]

1 minute ago, Trillian said:

I think it would be a mistake to think there will be no tourists this year, it's almost certain there will be and we may all be surprised at just how many.

I think it's a mistake to expect them... we will see. Just one example - Australia. They have banned international travel until the end of October. Assuming there isn't a 2nd wave, you won't be seeing many Ozzies anytime soon. We need to see how the opening up of various countries influences infection rates, but we can't count on anything at this stage.

[Trillian]

1 minute ago, JensenZ said:

I think it's a mistake to expect them... we will see. Just one example - Australia. They have banned international travel until the end of October. Assuming there isn't a 2nd wave, you won't be seeing many Ozzies anytime soon. We need to see how the opening up of various countries influences infection rates, but we can't count on anything at this stage.

The two key tourists groups statistically are the Chinese and ASEAN visitors, between them they account for more than 50% of tourists in Thailand, historically. Both groups are local to the region and both are at the lower edge of the curve when it comes to virus cases. I agree however there will be far fewer Western tourists who visit Thailand this year, for a variety of reasons.

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand tourism to contract by 1.69 trillion baht this year – Kasikorn Research

So nice they can work it out in monetary terms.. rather than tourist numbers.

Cash cows won't be coming this year... 

[Time to grow]

32 minutes ago, Trillian said:

I think it would be a mistake to think there will be no tourists this year, it's almost certain there will be and we may all be surprised at just how many.

Bankers lie, always, every time they open their mouth. You can bet these numbers are far conservative and the reality will be much worse. Anyone believing tourism is going to recover deserves the consequences.

[JensenZ]

35 minutes ago, Trillian said:

The two key tourists groups statistically are the Chinese and ASEAN visitors, between them they account for more than 50% of tourists in Thailand, historically. Both groups are local to the region and both are at the lower edge of the curve when it comes to virus cases. I agree however there will be far fewer Western tourists who visit Thailand this year, for a variety of reasons.

I don't believe numbers (infection/death) coming out of China. Few do. They've been covering up since the start - do you think all of a sudden they've become transparent? We have very little information from China.

 

My guess is they have at least as many infected or more than the USA as their population is over 4 times the US. You're kind of repeating what the PM in Thailand said - he was impressed with their low numbers and seems content to just let them back in based on the numbers they produced. They should be extra cautious with China, but because he is so desperate to get tourists back, it looks like he will take them at their word.

Edited May 25, 2020 by JensenZ

[dallen52]

The problem is pandemic, epidemic and systemic. 

Covid19 is one shocking aspect.

The whole tourist / long term stay contribution to the economy is rife with problems and corruption. 

A good time to look at the whole package. 

[DPKANKAN]

3 hours ago, ozz1 said:

How the hell are they going to get near that figure with whats going on there dreaming  no flights baht being persistently high no borders open yet they must know something no one else knows about or they have consulted that tat fortune teller

They have consulted the "Chinese Embassy Fortune Teller"......????????????????????????????????

[lks7689]

3 hours ago, ozz1 said:

How the hell are they going to get near that figure with whats going on there dreaming  no flights baht being persistently high no borders open yet they must know something no one else knows about or they have consulted that tat fortune teller

What do you expect them to declare? Tourism is screwed? No one will come til next year or two? Your prospect is near zero? Go figure how to live with the gloom? They get the same flak either way. It's a fine line between hope and misguided optimism. But you think open pessimism will help at all?

[Gilltom]

2 hours ago, JensenZ said:

The 1.69 trillion THB is an estimated loss, not profit. Approximately USD 53 billion.

 

Finally it took some bank executives to paint the real picture as TAT officials continue to talk the recovery up.

Thought rhat mean.t they would be down that amount not up???,,

[thurien]

2 hours ago, dsj said:

Also if tourists needs a medical certificate, that will also keep the numbers down, as I believe you can't get a certificate right now.

either you can't get or - even more likely - nobody bothers anymore to come to "locked Thailand"

[Bender Rodriguez]

does everybody on BTS has to use that scan app ? social distancing, etc...

 

what a joke

 

herd immunity is when 70-80 percent of the people went true this joke virus , got no symptom or as good as nothing (most cases) and then people can stop being afraid

 

putting everybody in this panic mode kills more people with stress than the actual virus

[JensenZ]

2 minutes ago, Gilltom said:

Thought rhat mean.t they would be down that amount not up???,,

Yes, that's why I called it "an estimated loss". I also think it is optimistic.

[JensenZ]

6 minutes ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

does everybody on BTS has to use that scan app ? social distancing, etc...

 

what a joke

 

herd immunity is when 70-80 percent of the people went true this joke virus , got no symptom or as good as nothing (most cases) and then people can stop being afraid

 

putting everybody in this panic mode kills more people with stress than the actual virus

It would be interesting to compare the number of covid-19 deaths reported with an estimate of how many of the same could have succumb to a bad case of the seasonal flu. I'm sure there would be quite a large overlap. Isolating the elderly population only would have been easy compared to destroying the whole economy.

 

Anyway, it's too late now. I wonder how excited the Thai population will be to see millions of Chinese tourists back in again? It's ironic that TAT were still talking about boosting the quality of tourists, as late as March. Now they will be happy to take whatever they can get.

Edited May 25, 2020 by JensenZ

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, JensenZ said:

I think it's a mistake to expect them... we will see. Just one example - Australia. They have banned international travel until the end of October.

And China has done the same yesterday:

no international flights before at least October...

Edited May 25, 2020 by Brunolem

[wazzupnow]

do not tell us

tell Prayut

[dallen52]

1 hour ago, baansgr said:

Mummy, "let's go to the beach, can I take my rubber ring"....."no son, but don't forget your mask and sanitiser"

Like anyone wants to travel

I do.

I have a partner and adopted family waiting for the relaxing of restrictions so we can get back together.