Thailand had the world's first coronavirus case outside China. Here's how it avoided disaster

[Logosone]

24 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

The first known case of Covid-19 in China dates back to November, but the hunt for “patient zero” goes on.
The first case of someone in China suffering from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, can be traced back to November 17, according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post.

According to the government data seen by the Post, a 55 year-old from Hubei province could have been the first person to have contracted Covid-19 on November 17. ...

 

It is possible that there were reported cases dating back even earlier than those seen by the Post.

 

German Cambridge University geneticist Peter Forster has said back in April that the virus most likely started earlier, he saw September as the most likely start date:

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8231753/Coronavirus-started-spreading-early-September-not-originated-Wuhan.html

 

[Bkk Brian]

8 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

Suspect? 13 Apr 2020 

Is there any way to know whether someone has had Covid-19 in the past?

Dr William Hillmann: Antibody tests are being developed but are not in widespread clinical use yet. The antibody testing would allow us to check blood samples for antibodies against coronavirus to tell whether somebody has had it. I, and I think many others, are anxiously awaiting for those to become available.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/global/2020/apr/13/coronavirus-have-i-already-had-covid-19

 

The incident happened in Oct 2019, thats 8 months ago, I hardly thing an antibody test would make a reliable diagnosis now or even weeks ago when they were still being trialed.

[SkyFax]

11 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The incident happened in Oct 2019, thats 8 months ago, I hardly thing an antibody test would make a reliable diagnosis now or even weeks ago when they were still being trialed.

New Revelations from World Military Games' Participants Hint at Covid-19 Spread in China in October -- May 18, 2020

Athletes revealing they fell ill at the World Military Games in Wuhan in October is adding to fears that the coronavirus was spreading within China months before the country accepted it to the world. ...

 

On the other hand, Pentathlete Melina Westerberg from Sweden said many of her countrymates got sick during the games but tested negative for the Covid-19.

"It was just a coincidence," she said. "We all felt safe."

 

https://www.cnbctv18.com/sports/new-revelations-from-world-military-games-participants-hint-at-covid-19-spread-in-china-in-october-5949681.htm

[SkyFax]

25 minutes ago, Logosone said:

he saw September as the most likely start date:

The data gathered by Dr Forster and his team indicate that the coronavirus outbreak apparently started sometime between September 13 and December 7.

 

NB: 'As early as" and "most likely" are not the same thing.

Edited June 26, 2020 by SkyFax

[Bkk Brian]

2 hours ago, SkyFax said:

New Revelations from World Military Games' Participants Hint at Covid-19 Spread in China in October -- May 18, 2020

Athletes revealing they fell ill at the World Military Games in Wuhan in October is adding to fears that the coronavirus was spreading within China months before the country accepted it to the world. ...

 

On the other hand, Pentathlete Melina Westerberg from Sweden said many of her countrymates got sick during the games but tested negative for the Covid-19.

"It was just a coincidence," she said. "We all felt safe."

 

https://www.cnbctv18.com/sports/new-revelations-from-world-military-games-participants-hint-at-covid-19-spread-in-china-in-october-5949681.htm

That settles it then, Melina Westerberg, an athelete must be right. As a result of her comment we can forget all investigation into the early outbreaks of COVID. 

 

Use some sense. 

 

Tell the Globaltimes.cn, they'd love to hear that.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Bkk Brian

[DrTuner]

7 hours ago, SkyFax said:

From the above scmp link:

 

"Results suggest the global health crisis may have started at some point between October 6 and December 11"

 

That still would not explain how Thailand excess deaths in SEP - DEC 2019 vs. the norm same months 2015-2018 could be explained by COVID-19.

Some of it is systematic, the death rate in Thailand has risen 1-1.5% yearly. HDC also reflects this, so for those that are curious about that the data is available. I didn't look into that yet.

https://knoema.com/atlas/Thailand/Death-rate

 

Now, your question is a really good one. If there is an anomaly in Thailand as early as September, what caused it? Before posing that question we however need to establish that there indeed was an anomaly. I'm trying to recreate the baseline for 2019 for the NYT data, they didn't do it but did mention they already removed the yearly trend. I'll let you know if I find or don't find anything.

[DrTuner]

2 hours ago, SkyFax said:

New Revelations from World Military Games' Participants Hint at Covid-19 Spread in China in October -- May 18, 2020

Athletes revealing they fell ill at the World Military Games in Wuhan in October is adding to fears that the coronavirus was spreading within China months before the country accepted it to the world. ...

 

On the other hand, Pentathlete Melina Westerberg from Sweden said many of her countrymates got sick during the games but tested negative for the Covid-19.

Tested negative for a SARS-CoV-2 infection in October 2019? The genome wasn't published until Jan 2020.

[SkyFax]

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

Tested negative for a SARS-CoV-2 infection in October 2019? The genome wasn't published until Jan 2020.

The MAY 16, 2020  article -- which as best I can tell originated with the Daily Mail -- might better have said that "Upon her return to Sweden -- she LATER tested negative for Covid-19."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8327047/More-competitors-reveal-ill-World-Military-Games.html

[Suua]

On 6/23/2020 at 1:50 PM, KhaoYai said:

You might find reading the statistics on Pneumonia cases and deaths since January interesting reading. 

 

I know a married couple (Thai & English) who both caught a virus whilst visiting Thailand earlier this year.  The English guy was pretty bad and was hospitalised in Pattaya - his symptoms point strongly towards Covid 19, yet neither were tested. All that was recorded was a Respiratory Infection.  I'm just one person who knows 2 that are very likley to have had Covid whilst in Thailand - how many more are there?

I have lived in Thailand for 15 years.....when I used to live in the UK, I would always get 3 or more colds/flu every year, guaranteed.

Since living in Thailand, I never get ill (touch wood) and I would always relate this to friends of mine when working abroad.

I agree with someone else who posted about westerners touching each other a lot....shaking hands/hugging/kissing....basically touching each other, whereas here in the far east, people rarely touch each other when greeting etc.

I think this is a huge factor in spreading any disease.

Perhaps the heat/UV radiation contributes to killing viruses more quickly than would happen in colder/less UV intensive countries???...basically reducing the viruses shelf life on any surface that someone might touch.

The UV index here in Thailand is always listed as 'Extreme' in any of the weather apps I look at (we are close to the equator after all).

I think there must be a lot of contributing factors, but the 2 I've outlined.....touching and UV are big in my opinion.

 

That said....in previous years I know of basically no-one/very, very few people who had a cold/flu here in Thailand during the time I've lived here.

However, this year I can think of a least 6 people I know of, who had some sort of cold/flu like symptoms.....they are all fine and in good health I'm glad to say, but the point is I had not seen anyone ill in previous years.

 

One of them was taken to hospital by his wife as he had breathing difficulties.....no test!!!!

For sure it's out there, perhaps not as widely spread due to factors I speculated about above.

[3NUMBAS]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/scientists-barcelona-covid-19-waste-193907981.html

Coronavirus found in Barcelona waste water sample from March 2019

James Badcock

,

The Telegraph•26 June 2020

[Yorkshire Tea]

7 hours ago, Suua said:

I have lived in Thailand for 15 years.....when I used to live in the UK, I would always get 3 or more colds/flu every year, guaranteed.

Since living in Thailand, I never get ill (touch wood) and I would always relate this to friends of mine when working abroad.

 

Do you have school age kids?  I do, & always get a couple of nasty "colds" a year.  Probably from school.

[ukrules]

1 minute ago, 3NUMBAS said:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/scientists-barcelona-covid-19-waste-193907981.html

Coronavirus found in Barcelona waste water sample from March 2019

James Badcock

,

The Telegraph•26 June 2020

Yes, I just saw this elsewhere, seems to be a breaking news story today although they do mention possible sample contamination.

 

Would be good to get more results based on sewage analysis.

[JCP108]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

Yes, I just saw this elsewhere, seems to be a breaking news story today although they do mention possible sample contamination.

 

Would be good to get more results based on sewage analysis.

If it's a valid sample then it could help explain the significant increase in deaths (as compared to recent prior years) in Thailand starting in the middle of 2019 per the data used for the NYT article. 

[ukrules]

4 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

If it's a valid sample then it could help explain the significant increase in deaths (as compared to recent prior years) in Thailand starting in the middle of 2019 per the data used for the NYT article. 

Yes, lets hope they have enough of the virions to sequence its DNA and then do some genealogy research on it to find where it belongs in the 'ancestral tree'.

 

[SkyFax]

 

Coronavirus found in Barcelona waste water sample from March 2019
Experts said the finding was probably either a contaminated sample or a separate coronavirus outbreak, although more research was needed ...

 

The team also found more consistent results showing that  SARS-CoV-2 had showed up in Barcelona's waste water from January 15 this year, six weeks before the first coronavirus case was registered in a Spanish hospital in late February.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/26/scientists-barcelona-find-covid-19-waste-water-march-2019-nine/  26 June 2020