BOT sees dark cloud of 8% contraction looming over economy

[fulhamster]

4 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Your observations are supported by a falling industrial electricity consumption in 2020:

 

January: 6,889 Down 1.3%

February: 6,903 Up 2.5%

March: 7,386 Down 4.8%

April: 6,450 Down 7.1%

 

Business electricity consumption is down by a whopping 25.5% in April 2020.

 

Unit = Gwh

 

Yes, but domestic consumption has risen over the same period.

[Trillian]

3 minutes ago, fulhamster said:

Yes, but domestic consumption has risen over the same period.

But has been heavily discounted for three months.

[Trillian]

12 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

Thai Exports have been reported as being down a massive 22.5 % Y on Y for May.

Many more Months of figures like these and Thai GDP down 8.1 % is going down the crapper as well.

A tough time ahead for the Thai Economy, as well as for many others around the Globe.

Sure that's a big drop but it's only one month out of twelve, we need a few more months data in order to see what the trend looks like.

[ExpatOilWorker]

2 minutes ago, fulhamster said:

Yes, but domestic consumption has risen over the same period.

True, but not by much and nothing is being produced by Somchai if he is just being a couch potato burning electricity at home.

To use your username,  Somchai need to return to the industrial hamster wheel to produce some GDP.

[hotchilli]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

BOT sees dark cloud of 8% contraction looming over economy

I think 8% is being very optimistic.

[Isaan sailor]

My experience in the corporate world taught me that you can sell cheap low margin products at low cost.  Or you can sell high quality high margin at higher prices.

Faced with a high currency, Thailand should focus on higher quality exports.  Trouble is, their competitors all doing this—many with a lower exchange rate.

[ExpatOilWorker]

9 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Sure that's a big drop but it's only one month out of twelve, we need a few more months data in order to see what the trend looks like.

The auto industry, one of Thailands major export industries, is already indicating what that trend will be.

 

European Car Sales Forecast to Drop by Record 25% This Year  ["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-23/european-car-sales-forecast-to-drop-by-record-25-on-pandemic"]

[Cake Monster]

6 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Sure that's a big drop but it's only one month out of twelve, we need a few more months data in order to see what the trend looks like.

For sure its only a One Month figure.

Waiting for several more Months will give an exact figure, but I cannot foresee any other way for Exports to go except for down.

The reality is that the major Global Economies, on which Thailand ( and other countries ) rely upon have all been tanked by this Covid outbreak.

Many Companies are working with staff on 75% of earnings for the short term, and making < for stock > items.

A practice that only lasts a short while before the lay offs begin in earnest.

I have said it before, and I will say it again, Thailand is due for about a 12% reduction in GDP

[Cake Monster]

6 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

My experience in the corporate world taught me that you can sell cheap low margin products at low cost.  Or you can sell high quality high margin at higher prices.

Faced with a high currency, Thailand should focus on higher quality exports.  Trouble is, their competitors all doing this—many with a lower exchange rate.

True !

But Thailand simply just does not have the ability or the skills for High End Product 

[Trillian]

20 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

For sure its only a One Month figure.

Waiting for several more Months will give an exact figure, but I cannot foresee any other way for Exports to go except for down.

The reality is that the major Global Economies, on which Thailand ( and other countries ) rely upon have all been tanked by this Covid outbreak.

Many Companies are working with staff on 75% of earnings for the short term, and making < for stock > items.

A practice that only lasts a short while before the lay offs begin in earnest.

I have said it before, and I will say it again, Thailand is due for about a 12% reduction in GDP

Yes perhaps, but 8, 10, 12, 15, they're just numbers, unless you try to translate them into jobs lost, livelihoods lost etc etc they're somewhat meaningless.  And that number is going to be what ever it's going to be, the fact that it might turn out to be 8 or 15 later probably doesn't change the actions that people take today.

 

Exports have surprised for the past two months, both gold and arms/munitions exports came out of left field and surprised everyone, I'm expecting a few more similar surprises as we plough through this thing. I think the big downside risks include a second wave, that has the potential to cause even more serious damage and the likelihood of it is high.

 

 

[Trillian]

30 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

The auto industry, one of Thailands major export industries, is already indicating what that trend will be.

 

European Car Sales Forecast to Drop by Record 25% This Year  ["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-23/european-car-sales-forecast-to-drop-by-record-25-on-pandemic"]

Ouch!

[GinBoy2]

Trouble is no country is going to come out of this nightmare unscathed.

 

We can argue if the contraction will be 5, 10, 15% but the problem is until the dust settles nobody knows.

 

The world still hasn't seen the full extent of the havoc this virus is causing, and in reality in many parts of the world, Africa, South America, Middle East probably the worst is yet to come.

 

Hard to tell what this means for Thailand, but exports will be down and the tourist industry is shot for at least another year.

 

The major countries will simply print money to battle though this.

 

What the likes of Thailand will do, with a ruling elite who don't really care about the poor remains to be seen

[Trillian]

But even printing money has its limits. This would be a great time for a global reset, if only we could get the right adults in the same room, chances of that aren't good though!

[Cake Monster]

4 minutes ago, Trillian said:

But even printing money has its limits. This would be a great time for a global reset, if only we could get the right adults in the same room, chances of that aren't good though!

Bloody impossible more likely

[talahtnut]

3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Next week i pretty much guarantee the baht will be HIGHER due to dollar STRENGTHENING

Its a fake strengthening of the Ponzi Scheme

I'm afraid the Dollar, renamed ‘Federal

Reserve Note’. ‘Note’ an accounting term

for a liability. So by printing money, the

Fed is really just creating more liabilities.

Holding Baht, or the Hong Kong Dollar

or just assets, is a safer bet.

[Deli]

12 hours ago, robblok said:

Markets in full swing.

Cannot second. GF's son ( an IT secialist ) has been put on short time work with 50 % salary only, daughter lost her job and cannot find a new one. Me, myself, put on unpaid leave until....?

 

[Trillian]

9 hours ago, Deli said:

Cannot second. GF's son ( an IT secialist ) has been put on short time work with 50 % salary only, daughter lost her job and cannot find a new one. Me, myself, put on unpaid leave until....?

 

I posted elsewhere this morning that the SET has gone crazy and seen more domestic inflows so far this year than in the whole of 2019. Thai banks have also seen domestic cash deposits increase by 8.1% this year plus Foreign Direct Investment cash flows in USD during June were in the millions, markets are indeed going crazy.