Thailand sees 60% slump in January-May tourist arrivals, spending

[Trillian]

11 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Meanwhile, major economies in Europe are kick-starting their tourist sectors. Thailand is out of the game completely, and even if it does reopen the major tour operators will be focusing on other markets.  What a disaster!  If Thailand is to be judged on it's ability to prevent Covid19, then of course initially it did very well, but coming out of lockdown has been dismal.  If the country is to be judged on economic policy with regard to tourism, specifically with respect to it's declared policy to chase only high-end tourists, then the verdict is indisputably negative.  Moreover, the overall stance is nothing but a wrecking-ball for the Thai economy.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8464769/Families-book-summer-getaways-air-bridges-open-travel-operators-slash-prices-70.html

Have you seen the reports of people flocking to Bournemouth beach yesterday et al, all whilst the rate of infection and death is quite high and nobody was wearing a mask and nobody seemed to give a  damn. If the UK wants to kick start it's economy by allowing foreign holidays etc under those conditions, I'm 100% behind Thailand's decision to remain closed and I hope Brits are never allowed back here, it's shameful behaviour. signed, a Brit.

[spidermike007]

18 hours ago, GAZZPA said:

very true, I lived and worked in China, the Chinese have had enormous investment from global fashion brands who openly now admit they are exposed after over investment, (such as Louis Vuitton). My big boss in China would fly to Europe to buy fashion items rather then pay Chinese prices. Rich they are, stupid they are not..

And the authorities here have absolutely no clue of any of the facts you are stating. Lowering luxury taxes here would require vision, and the ability to lift themselves beyond intellectual antiquity, and join the global economy. It would not only significantly increase the number of wealthy tourists who visit, it would stimulate domestic shopping, improve the experience for all, and increase revenue dramatically. If only they had the eyes to see. 

Edited June 27, 2020 by spidermike007

[spidermike007]

2 hours ago, lks7689 said:

I can honestly tell you, I have no math issue. So figure that out. 

Ok. Assuming you have no issues with math, let us consider the formula you used. I stated that the bottles at the Bella Rocca went up to the 10,000 baht range. You claimed that it would be more reasonable to expect good wine service, if we added two zeros to that amount. Which would represent a bottle of wine at 1,000,000 baht. Though there are restaurants that have bottles at that price, it is not reasonable to state that one would have to be a fat cat, at that level to expect good wine service. I have been to many restaurants in the US, Canada, Mexico, Europe, and even Cambodia and Vietnam, where for the purchase of a $50-100 bottle of wine at a restaurant, I got outstanding, highly knowledgeable wine service.

 

Not so here. Once, I got good wine service at the Four Seasons Hotel on Samui. And frankly, I was shocked to be able to discuss wine with a bartender who really knew his stuff, and worked at a place that had enough pride to have the service personnel taste some the wine. So, it might have been more accurate for you to suggest it is a cultural or an F & B deficiency issue? 

[Sambotte]

Thailand in my 20 years part-time experience, was maybe the n°1 country for tourism business. Including long stays. Expats, etc.

 

Easy visa, easy condo and motorcycle rental (just try to do a monthly rental in almost any other non-asian country... pain in the ass), no security issue (again compare to ANY western country), trust in very most cases, good prices, politness, not noisy (like Vietnam with their crazy non-stop klaxon), good massages, good accommodation quality, transports, etc. etc.

 

For 40 years i would say for Thailand. Good business for everybody. Land of good business and easy living.

 

LOS...T ?

Since maybe 5 years, or 10, it's been going down and down. Why ?

Many big mistakes. Farang xenophobia (and last : the Anutin stupid words was something nobody will forget since it's official). All-in on Chineese that was a huge mistake from the start (eggs in a basket...). Make the expats stay an administrative nightmare, many left. Lottery detention at airport. Military rules in social life. Etc.

 

I wish they could change this direction and put back what was an enormous and special value here.

But like the driving, i think it takes a very long time here to admit a wrong direction. Driving mistakes, causing 7000 deaths and 1/2 million injured in 6 months, is easy to fix, very easy, IF someday they can admit their mistakes and learn the basics. Looks like they can't and even do worse...

Covid world panic : could have been a good time to rethink the tourism business witch was going wrong way. But no, looks like they insist. Looking for high net worth tourists ? With a ton a requirements ? Insurance here, travel bubble there, quarantine on arrival... arf ! With farang xenophobia ? Lol... And again all-in on Chineese, same mistake...

 

We will see but it could take a while or even never come back. Pride looks more important than business maybe. Or some don't care anymore about general business ; having some private interest at high level... Packs of Chineese. Medical tourism. High net-worth tourists. Does not look like Thaïs lifes matters maybe.

 

This Is Thailand... TIT. For TAT.

Whatever, the entire world is nuts. Sad Thailand is no more exception (globally speaking for what was a "special" country.

 

[metisdead]

Some troll posts and the replies have been removed. 

[5633572526]

On 6/26/2020 at 12:58 PM, cyril sneer said:

not what I heard

Somebody lied to you 

[mommysboy]

4 hours ago, Trillian said:

Have you seen the reports of people flocking to Bournemouth beach yesterday et al, all whilst the rate of infection and death is quite high and nobody was wearing a mask and nobody seemed to give a  damn. If the UK wants to kick start it's economy by allowing foreign holidays etc under those conditions, I'm 100% behind Thailand's decision to remain closed and I hope Brits are never allowed back here, it's shameful behaviour. signed, a Brit.

Some people behaved grossly, but not the vast majority.  As for the medical risk I imagine it is on the low to very low side- certainly less than being in and around a busy shopping area.  Protect the old, make sure medical workers have PPE, and then let people get on with their lives.

 

The death rate of hospitalized patients has dropped substantially of late because of better treatments.  It could in any case be a positive thing if the young and fit assist in developing much needed herd immunity- there would be far less fatalities than people would like to believe provided the vulnerable remain at home.

[Trillian]

55 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Some people behaved grossly, but not the vast majority.  As for the medical risk I imagine it is on the low to very low side- certainly less than being in and around a busy shopping area.  Protect the old, make sure medical workers have PPE, and then let people get on with their lives.

 

The death rate of hospitalized patients has dropped substantially of late because of better treatments.  It could in any case be a positive thing if the young and fit assist in developing much needed herd immunity- there would be far less fatalities than people would like to believe provided the vulnerable remain at home.

I think this is an all or nothing issue, either you (not you personally MB) believe the virus is a serious health issue than could prove fatal or you don't. If you do then you need to do everything in your power to avoid catching it and/or spreading it, there are no half measures. And I've yet to read about the science from a reliable source that says virus such as these suddenly disappear unless there is herd immunity, at this early stage in the game there clearly is not. People who say they will not wear a mask because they don't know anyone who'd ever contracted the virus must be among the most stupid and selfish people on the planet.

 

 

[spidermike007]

On 6/26/2020 at 4:59 PM, fulhamster said:

Most chairs were empty before Covid, mainly due to the strength of the baht.

 

And it gets stronger still............

Alot is being forgotten already. Tourism was declining well before this all started. Sure you had huge numbers of arrivals. But, income was way down as was occupancy. Targeting super low end customers may work at a swap meet, but it is hardly a wise strategy to pin a tourism market on, that provides over five million jobs. 

[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

I think this is an all or nothing issue, either you (not you personally MB) believe the virus is a serious health issue than could prove fatal or you don't. If you do then you need to do everything in your power to avoid catching it and/or spreading it, there are no half measures. And I've yet to read about the science from a reliable source that says virus such as these suddenly disappear unless there is herd immunity, at this early stage in the game there clearly is not. People who say they will not wear a mask because they don't know anyone who'd ever contracted the virus must be among the most stupid and selfish people on the planet.

 

 

'an all or nothing issue'- I think this is the problem.  I do see Covid19 as a life threatening issue for a small percentage of older folks (perhaps me), or people living with underlying health issues.  But rather I think there is a blended approach needed, since the measures taken in Thailand, for instance, have guaranteed safety but put the country in to an effective international lockdown, without actually addressing the issue of immunity.  I see immunity as vital in the absence of a vaccine.  By properly assessing risks we can develop a strategy that doesn't inconvenience those truly at little risk, whilst protecting others.  

 

NB: The issue of immunity is a complex matter.  Some who are merely infected may have none at all to subsequent attacks from the same strain, but then again don't need it.  Others may get ill but may clear the virus without mounting an antibody response.  However, the majority will gain antibodies.  I think the concept of herd immunity is indisputable. Cross immunity may even be the reason why the virus was so slow to take off in Bangkok for example- as just a few months previously some kind of rather scary virus had been doing the rounds.  Without immunity, a population is singularly vulnerable to subsequent strains.

[Trillian]

9 hours ago, mommysboy said:

'an all or nothing issue'- I think this is the problem.  I do see Covid19 as a life threatening issue for a small percentage of older folks (perhaps me), or people living with underlying health issues.  But rather I think there is a blended approach needed, since the measures taken in Thailand, for instance, have guaranteed safety but put the country in to an effective international lockdown, without actually addressing the issue of immunity.  I see immunity as vital in the absence of a vaccine.  By properly assessing risks we can develop a strategy that doesn't inconvenience those truly at little risk, whilst protecting others.  

 

NB: The issue of immunity is a complex matter.  Some who are merely infected may have none at all to subsequent attacks from the same strain, but then again don't need it.  Others may get ill but may clear the virus without mounting an antibody response.  However, the majority will gain antibodies.  I think the concept of herd immunity is indisputable. Cross immunity may even be the reason why the virus was so slow to take off in Bangkok for example- as just a few months previously some kind of rather scary virus had been doing the rounds.  Without immunity, a population is singularly vulnerable to subsequent strains.

It's a real moral dilemma and a challenge for society as a whole isn't it, younger people may not be at risk so they shouldn't be locked down yet they can still be carriers who can infect and effectively kill older people. Is it right to isolate older people and keep them away from others just because younger people won't wear masks for example and provide older people with some protection? Is it right that everyone floods to the beach unmasked just because the weather turns nice, isn't that inconsiderate and selfish? There seems to be a very large selfish element in the UK presently but I don't see that same thing exists in Thailand currently. People here wear masks unquestioning and without being asked. In the UK, people won't wear masks when instructed to and even on public transport where they are mandatory, people get on the tube then take the mask off!

 

When it comes to prevention and keeping infection and fatality rates low, Thailand's approach seems to win hands down. When it comes to developing herd immunity the UK seems to win, although I suspect Thailand is betting on a vaccine solution but I don't think economics will allow them wait that long.

[Trillian]

10 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Alot is being forgotten already. Tourism was declining well before this all started. Sure you had huge numbers of arrivals. But, income was way down as was occupancy. Targeting super low end customers may work at a swap meet, but it is hardly a wise strategy to pin a tourism market on, that provides over five million jobs. 

I don't agree that tourism was declining, the arrivals numbers suggest the opposite. Yes, income was down but only traditional forms of occupancy were down, those record numbers of arrivees had to be staying somewhere, it's just that people hadn't understood exactly where.

 

It's a waste of time trying to argue on Thaivisa Forum that there are many layers of tourist wealth in Thailand and that the upper layers are substantial. Most Thaivisa Forum members see only the tour buses and the flag leading hordes on Walking Street and think that is the extent of things. They don't see the private free travellers who think nothing of spending fifteen thousands baht per day for a hotel, spend several hundred thousand at a time in the boutique shop or rent nice houses costing 50k for a weeks holiday, yet those people are out there in spades, increasingly so. It is a bad mistaken to think that Thailand is targeting only super low end travellers.

[SkyFax]

While dated OCT 2019 pre-COVID this included an analysis of the top-end Bangkok hotel market:

 

The Chao Phraya riverside now has the biggest share of top-end rooms, with investors scanning the area for more opportunities.

By 2022, first-class hotels will dominate future supply in downtown Bangkok, making up 27.2%, according to STR Global.

 

https://www.cbre.co.th/propertynews/a-luxe-rescue/

 

[Trillian]

6 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

While dated OCT 2019 pre-COVID this included an analysis of the top-end Bangkok hotel market:

 

The Chao Phraya riverside now has the biggest share of top-end rooms, with investors scanning the area for more opportunities.

By 2022, first-class hotels will dominate future supply in downtown Bangkok, making up 27.2%, according to STR Global.

 

https://www.cbre.co.th/propertynews/a-luxe-rescue/

 

A useful link to confirm the argument that Thailand sees increasing numbers of wealthy visitors:

 

"By 2022, first-class hotels will dominate future supply in downtown Bangkok, making up 27.2%, according to STR Global".

 

"But the rate will still be cheaper in Bangkok than for the same brand in Singapore or Manila, as the average room rate for hotels in Thailand has remained stagnant for more than a decade".

 

"The only segment that is still intact is ultra-luxury hotels, whose location makes less of a difference, both in terms of average daily rate and occupancy, because they cater to the needs of high-spending guests looking for unique offers, such as extreme levels of service and new experiences, Ms Aliwassa said".

 

https://www.cbre.co.th/propertynews/a-luxe-rescue/

 

[spidermike007]

21 minutes ago, Trillian said:

A useful link to confirm the argument that Thailand sees increasing numbers of wealthy visitors:

 

"By 2022, first-class hotels will dominate future supply in downtown Bangkok, making up 27.2%, according to STR Global".

 

"But the rate will still be cheaper in Bangkok than for the same brand in Singapore or Manila, as the average room rate for hotels in Thailand has remained stagnant for more than a decade".

 

"The only segment that is still intact is ultra-luxury hotels, whose location makes less of a difference, both in terms of average daily rate and occupancy, because they cater to the needs of high-spending guests looking for unique offers, such as extreme levels of service and new experiences, Ms Aliwassa said".

 

https://www.cbre.co.th/propertynews/a-luxe-rescue/

 

An utter pipe dream. None of the authorities are willing to make any of the sacrifices required to sustain that market. A total folly. They will build it, but they will not come!

[Trillian]

9 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

An utter pipe dream. None of the authorities are willing to make any of the sacrifices required to sustain that market. A total folly. They will build it, but they will not come!

They are here already and have been coming here for years, you personally don't see them so you can't believe it, that's the point!

[nong38]

On 6/26/2020 at 1:38 PM, LEKPHUKET said:

Not surprising the way they handle the situation. 

A soldier in  the nicest suit stays a soldier with no clues for economic challenges 

Soldiers who have never won a battle in their lives.

[Pravda]

I am more appalled by native English speaking posters who can't read or understand basic English.... And the ones who gave them so many likes. 

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, Trillian said:

They are here already and have been coming here for years, you personally don't see them so you can't believe it, that's the point!

A pinhead of the total. I have several wealthy friends who visited Thailand. Once. None ever returned. 

[CorpusChristie]

1 minute ago, spidermike007 said:

A pinhead of the total. I have several wealthy friends who visited Thailand. Once. None ever returned. 

Did you have an argument with them or something ?

[SkyFax]

 

 

1 The River Wing at Mandarin Oriental, Bangkok closed for renovation from 1st March 2019, leaving only 30 available rooms operating in the Authors’ and Garden Wings.
The statistics for the hotel are shown up until the closure of the River Wing for renovation.

[Trillian]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

A pinhead of the total. I have several wealthy friends who visited Thailand. Once. None ever returned. 

Anecdotal at best.

[kingdong]

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

A pinhead of the total. I have several wealthy friends who visited Thailand. Once. None ever returned. 

once bitten twice shy

[SkyFax]

20 minutes ago, kingdong said:

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

A pinhead of the total. I have several wealthy friends who visited Thailand. Once. None ever returned. 

once bitten twice shy

To get bitten, did they have to pay extra?

[Alex 012]

On 6/27/2020 at 7:20 AM, Trillian said:

International tourism, 11.4% of GDP.

Domestic tourism, 6.5% of GDP.

Thai overseas tourism, 18% of GDP

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/tourism-revenue

https://www.nationthailand.com/Tourism/30349409#:~:text=According to the Tourism Authority,with global median of %242.443.

 

That spinoff is already included elsewhere in GDP in ether services or domestic consumption or similar, you can't add it again!

Lies Damn lies.

 

Tourism more like 60% of GDP.

 

 

LOS - Land of shonky stats

[Trillian]

58 minutes ago, Alex 012 said:

Lies Damn lies.

 

Tourism more like 60% of GDP.

 

 

LOS - Land of shonky stats

Do you know what GDP is and how it's calculated? No, I thought not!

[Mavideol]

34 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Do you know what GDP is and how it's calculated? No, I thought not!

GDP... hummm is it Good Day Pattaya

[bangon04]

On 6/26/2020 at 8:22 AM, spidermike007 said:

I have spoken to gals at massage shops who say they were offered a 200 baht tip to perform extras, by some Indian "gents". What can one say?

How many times have we stood in line at the 7-11 while the Indian customer haggles over the price of the Coca-Cola..?

[bangon04]

On 6/26/2020 at 5:38 PM, BernieOnTour said:

Less than 5 years and half of the country would be in the hands of guys with Chinese roots....

That long???  Thought it already is.....

[bangon04]

On 6/26/2020 at 8:42 PM, Soikhaonoiken said:

The figures are never the same, because when they pick a number,  they forget what number it was last week, so have to pick another ????

so are we supposed to trust the government figures for Covid 19 infection rates and deaths????