Dr. Thanarak Plipat says Thai people are inviting the return of COVID-19

[SkyFax]

21 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Yes, Thailand has more excess deaths than reported died from COVID.

Yes, and per the same NY Times data, Thailand had excess deaths SEP-DEC 2019 of 3,998, 3,061, 1,449, and 4,606 per month respectively.

 

Covid-19 related?

 

• #133

[JackThompson]

5 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

Yes, and per the same NY Times data, Thailand had excess deaths SEP-DEC 2019 of 3,998, 3,061, 1,449, and 4,606 per month respectively.

 

Covid-19 related?

 

• #133

Thanks for this.  I would like to see January, February, and March, also.   I always suspected, covid had already "done the rounds" here, before they even started testing. 

[SkyFax]

18 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

I always suspected, covid had already "done the rounds" here, before they even started testing. 

This is from the NY Times posted JULY 2, 2020 -- I will presume they are familiar with the oft referenced on these pages NY Times APR 2020 excess death data:

 

DEC. 31 (2019)

Chinese authorities treated dozens of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause.
On Dec. 31, the government in Wuhan, China, confirmed that health authorities were treating dozens of cases. Days later, researchers in China identified a new virus that had infected dozens of people in Asia. At the time, there was no evidence that the virus was readily spread by humans. Health officials in China said they were monitoring it to prevent the outbreak from developing into something more severe.

 

JAN. 11 (2020)

China reported its first death.
On Jan. 11, Chinese state media reported the first known death from an illness caused by the virus, which had infected dozens of people. The 61-year-old man who died was a regular customer at the market in Wuhan. The report of his death came just before one of China’s biggest holidays, when hundreds of millions of people travel across the country.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.html

Edited July 8, 2020 by SkyFax

[hugocnx]

There wasn't even a real first wave in Thailand.

[ThailandRyan]

Just saw that a new study from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the U.K. shows why it's particularly important to get frequently tested: 78 percent of people who tested positive for COVID-19 showed no symptoms when they got swabbed.

[SkyFax]

Per the above (excerpt):

 

While the ONS survey includes relatively small numbers of positive swab tests (120 infections in all) making it hard to make any strong conclusions about who is most likely to be infected, there are some patterns coming through in the data:

 

Those in people-facing health or social care roles, and working outside their homes in general, were more likely to have a positive test.
People from ethnic minority backgrounds were more likely to have a positive antibody test, suggesting a past infection.
White people were the least likely proportionally to test positive for antibodies.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53320155

[Sumarianson]

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Better a live sheeple than a dead jackass. 

Your post is riddled with blatant misinformation. 

Exactly where is it 'riddled' with misinformation? All that I have said is in the public domain and verifiable. So state exactly where I have misinformed anyone or shut up and stop making insane statements. 

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, JackThompson said:

Where would the new cases originate?  Thailand has no cases - right?  Everyone entering has been quarantined and tested.  No new cases reported in ages, other than isolated returnees.

Again don't confuse official counts with actual cases. This is the reality in all countries except for perhaps New Zealand. 

[ThaiFelix]

Covid19 is finished in Thailand...ask anyone at our local market, they'll all tell you.  Again it seems to boil down to a total lack of law enforcement in this country.  Start rounding up a few without masks or ignoring social distancing, and fine them 20,000 baht and you will see a difference.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, SkyFax said:

Yes, and per the same NY Times data, Thailand had excess deaths SEP-DEC 2019 of 3,998, 3,061, 1,449, and 4,606 per month respectively.

 

Covid-19 related?

 

• #133

Even earlier than that. We'll get budget year 2019-2020 figures from HDC in October I think? Then we'll see some breakdown of causes.

[SkyFax]

As posted above per the NY Times 02JUL2020:

 

"On Jan. 11, Chinese state media reported the first known death from an illness caused by the virus, which had infected dozens of people."

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

As posted above per the NY Times 02JUL2020:

 

"On Jan. 11, Chinese state media reported the first known death from an illness caused by the virus, which had infected dozens of people."

Yeah, Chinese state media. Take it with mountains of salt.

 

Another view: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-in-wuhan-fall-satellite-data-internet-searches-2020-6

[JCP108]

3 hours ago, JackThompson said:

Thanks for this.  I would like to see January, February, and March, also.   I always suspected, covid had already "done the rounds" here, before they even started testing. 

If you look at total deaths for 2016, 2017, and 2018, they were almost the same for all three years (up and down by less than 1.5% per year) and the average monthly deaths reported by that article (and apparently gotten from the Thailand DOPH data) was 39,524 for that three-year time period. Also, per that data set, the total deaths for January, February, March, and April of 2020 were 47,125, 39,758, 44,304, and 40,057 respectively.

 

Since road deaths were reported to have been around 6,000 less during the soft lockdown, the average deaths for the first part of this year should be 6,000 less than in prior years. So, instead of 39,524 x4, it would be: 39,524 x 4 - 6,000.

Edited July 8, 2020 by JCP108

[SkyFax]

35 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Yeah, Chinese state media. Take it with mountains of salt.

 

Another view: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-in-wuhan-fall-satellite-data-internet-searches-2020-6

From the above link (with no mention of deaths) -- 

 

Infectious-disease experts who weren't affiliated with the study have cautioned that its results don't necessarily mean that the coronavirus was spreading through Wuhan in the early fall. Correlation, after all, does not mean causation.

"I don't know about the August start," Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious-disease expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told Reuters. However, he said, "it's clear this had been spreading for some time before it was recognized and reported to the World Health Organization in December."

 

But (Paul Digard, chair of virology at the University of Edinburgh) said the research would be more convincing if it included similar satellite data from hospitals in other Chinese cities.  By focusing only on Wuhan, the outbreak's known epicenter, "the study forces the correlation," Digard said

 

 

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

On 7/7/2020 at 3:04 PM, webfact said:

“Whether the disease will return again depends on the Thai people, and I personally feel that they are not afraid of COVID-19 and want it to return,” said Dr. Thanarak,

Either that or its never gone away...................

 

 

[steven100]

Not just Thais being complacent ....  Aussies are the worst  !     If they catch the virus and go into ICU they can blame themselves.

[orchidfan]

Hong Kong was going well with no local transmissions for around 3 weeks.

Then wham,  yesterday 14 new cases and today 24.

A few imported,  a few in age care homes but others..... they have no idea!

Contact tracing a nightmare as these infected people have been all over the place.

Even a school kid. So some schools are suspended again, after just reopening !

 

Returning residents are tested a.d put into quarantine,  but still it's s getting out somewhere.

One guy who works for the Hospital Authority seems to have got it at Disneyland (only speculation,  but he had been there), another a taxi driver (and I think his passenger).

 

This virus is a tricky bu**er.

[ThailandRyan]

There is no rhyme or reason why, it just is, and that's a statement of fact.  This government and all others are blind to the reality of what has occurred because of there ineptitude and the People of those countries and her in Thailand have had enough.  Today around Bangkok I noticed many less people social distancing and wearing masks.  Going into malls was met with no one checking temperatures or ensuring the app was being used for tracing (Union Mall), and the mall at Param 9 MRT exit.  The open air and warehouse Market at Huai Kwhang was packed with people at 5 pm, and again very few masks.  At the MRT and BTS stations the security checking the temps on the scanner were vacant, and on the trains themselves many were not masked and coughing.  Complacency has taken over.  People just do not care and it is because the Government keeps up the drivel.

[Kwasaki]

On 7/7/2020 at 3:04 PM, webfact said:

Dr. Thanarak Plipat says Thai people are inviting the return of COVID-19

Not surprised 5000 a month given 10,000 a month given by govt, that's more than any of the self employed earn in a month where we live.

[Trujillo]

"He warned that the disease may return with a vengeance “if we lower our guard and ignore basic safety measures,” citing lessons from several countries where cluster infections are being reported in congested places."

 

I am not aware of 3,000 migrant workers coming in, but you can be sure that they were quarantined before entering the general population (if this actually occurred, which I an highly skeptical of. Is he really trying to tell us that 3,000 [nice round number, by the way] migrants came into Thailand and they had NO vetting for covid? Come on!). 

 

Citing countries that have active virus cases is in NO way relevant to a country with sealed borders that has had over 3 cycles of 14 days without a case, ie Thailand. 

 

This guy is fear-mongering and grossly out of touch with reality and is being illogical. 

[sletraveler]

That Covid varmit is likely to appear anywhere anytime so be sure to mask up.   Best to sleep and shower with one too.   Can’t be too safe. 

[mommysboy]

The most likely explanation is illegal entry in to a country.  Or the high and mighty still travelling.

[ericthai]

On 7/7/2020 at 8:39 AM, tribalfusion001 said:

I've walked around shops in BKK at the height of the pandemic and here in the UK with no mask, guess what I've haven't caught it.

and some people win the lotto!! 

 

With all the info about covid 19 you are not being very smart and you're being very selfish.

What if you are asymptomatic and passed it on to someone else? You dont know. 

 

You sound like the young people shown on the news that they say they are ok, dont think it's that bad.

Now younger people are ending up in the hospitals in the USA.

[DrTuner]

24 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

The most likely explanation is illegal entry in to a country.  Or the high and mighty still travelling.

There's always some contact at the land borders. It's slower than spreading via air travel, but ongoing nonetheless. All these lockdowns are doing is buying time, at a very, very high economic price. And that time is not really used for anything, like creating an effective test & tracing network, so it's a waste.

[CGW]

57 minutes ago, ericthai said:

With all the info about covid 19 you are not being very smart and you're being very selfish.

What if you are asymptomatic and passed it on to someone else? You dont know.

Mask Police on duty - stay alert there. ????

You've really fallen for the drivel, those that want to wear masks are protected - right?

So if someone is not wearing a mask what is your concern given the "infection" rate?

From what I have read most knowledgeable medical experts have stated beyond any reasonable doubt masks are virtually worthless, but the MSM has an agenda, have you not noticed the media-engineered mass hysteria that says you save the world from destruction by the plague by hiding behind a bit of useless cloth?

I think maybe TV & the MSM are a dam sight more dangerous than the "virus" what do you reckon?

What does a pandemic of an asymptomatic disease look like, or has that just been invented to further the agenda?

Where is the safety case for the risks associated with long term wearing of masks, deprivation of oxygen, breathing your own toxicity, re-breathing CO2, then the disposal of these life savers, full of toxins, in the bin, dumped by the road?

 

[Stargeezr]

One thing that I have thought of is that there is no shortage of people to

work on the farms in Thailand.  With many of the tourist workers back at home

in their parts of Thailand, now is the time for them to go back to the old way of

life  and just survive this Covid 19 pandemic. I am sure there will be a lot of empty

hotels and some fancy restaurants that will close permanently as well as many

tourist attractions, and support businesses of the tourist industry. Hey even TAT 

could retire a lot of their staff, right.  Maybe it is time for all countries

to get ready for the new normal, future. the old normal is gone.

Geezer

[Starmocihc]

On 7/7/2020 at 7:39 AM, tribalfusion001 said:

I've walked around shops in BKK at the height of the pandemic and here in the UK with no mask, guess what I've haven't caught it.

Probably untrue. You likely did, but as with the other 94% of cases, you were simply unaware of it as it ran it's course. 

[Starmocihc]

12 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

There is no rhyme or reason why, it just is, and that's a statement of fact.  This government and all others are blind to the reality of what has occurred because of there ineptitude and the People of those countries and her in Thailand have had enough.  Today around Bangkok I noticed many less people social distancing and wearing masks.  Going into malls was met with no one checking temperatures or ensuring the app was being used for tracing (Union Mall), and the mall at Param 9 MRT exit.  The open air and warehouse Market at Huai Kwhang was packed with people at 5 pm, and again very few masks.  At the MRT and BTS stations the security checking the temps on the scanner were vacant, and on the trains themselves many were not masked and coughing.  Complacency has taken over.  People just do not care and it is because the Government keeps up the drivel.

A lot of the methods you mention had been mostly disregarded there for quite awhile, yet no new cases. ????

[pixelaoffy]

On 7/7/2020 at 4:14 PM, ThailandRyan said:

Please tell that to my daughter who has been working her rear end off with Covid patients flooding the hospitals she has worked at in Florida in the ICU, and now in Pennsylvania.  The virus is real, and if people would just take care of themselves so that they would not infect others by doing the right thing, then the States would not be now having to pass laws enacting the wearing of masks and closing down establishments again.  Now I await the Anti-masker brigade to chime in.....

For a so called 'developed' country The USA has been a disgrace ! Of course with the worst set of Republican Politicians in its history that's no surprise

[ThailandRyan]

12 minutes ago, pixelaoffy said:

For a so called 'developed' country The USA has been a disgrace ! Of course with the worst set of Republican Politicians in its history that's no surprise

Tell me how that affects the way people themselves have responded to the virus and how there actions are the faults of the politicians. Personal responsibility is where the final foot falls.  Do you eat ice cream  because your told to if your obese,  i think not. Its up to individuals to do whats right.