Too-tight virus policy is strangling Thai economy, experts warn

[d2b2]

_{The failure to prevent the infected Egyptian soldiers from wondering out of quarantine doesn’t bode well for the government’s capabilities to manage reopening the country to tourism.}

[Ranshoko]

Well that's his view fuelled totally by self interest. 

[d2b2]

10 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Beer.

Beer cures everything.

Is that a quote from Typhoid Mary? 

[d2b2]

9 minutes ago, Benmart said:

Likely far fewer than are killed on Thai roadways. Not much of an alarm about those deaths.

Conflating one with the other serves no purpose. Sour implication is double up on the dying?

[JCauto]

10 minutes ago, d2b2 said:

So we have a lot of commenters in agreement with the economist and investor quoted in the article. Given that neither of them have a medical degree or any science background (likely the TV commenters don’t either), I think it is wise to assume that it is only greed and personal self interest talking. Until the experts in the medical and science community are quoted saying it is safe to begin tourism again, those with out the specific educational background and experience should simply keep their armchair opinions to themselves (and put on a mask).

We're observing one of the facts of the modern era, which is to amplify what was already known long before the internet.
 

“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”

― Bertrand Russell

 

You can be certain that the loudest voices and most cocksure on TV are the least qualified. You will also observe an almost 100% correspondence between those who don't wear masks and those who believe Climate Change is a hoax. Oh, and you can also guess for whom they vote. I say let the virus cull these bad genetic mutations from the population and their predecessors who failed to apply course correction through proper parenting. On on the virus!

[visacrack]

Still no word about the part that excess body fat plays >

 

 

Is it because many politicians are obese themselves thus can't really plead for the necessary nutrition reform without becoming (even more) implausible? Bungling Boris Johnson comes to mind...
 

[Guderian]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

He suggested Thailand’s hot weather may be helping to keep the infection rate low

ROFL, does he think that Brazil and India are sub-Arctic?

The guy's about three months behind the rest of the world's thinking on C19.

[d2b2]

Just now, JCauto said:

We're observing one of the facts of the modern era, which is to amplify what was already known long before the internet.
 

“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”

― Bertrand Russell

 

You can be certain that the loudest voices and most cocksure on TV are the least qualified. You will also observe an almost 100% correspondence between those who don't wear masks and those who believe Climate Change is a hoax. Oh, and you can also guess for whom they vote. I say let the virus cull these bad genetic mutations from the population and their predecessors who failed to apply course correction through proper parenting. On on the virus!

If only they alone were at risk, the Darwinism principle would be so appealing

[mtls2005]

59 minutes ago, Naamblar2014 said:

With a capacity of 60,000 they are still showing caution by limiting only 30,000 people. Time will tell if this was a mistake or not.

 

50% capacity on flights to/from Thailand, in Thai hotels/restos, ain't gonna work, economically.

[Miami007]

1 hour ago, chaihot said:

Agreed.  Go there for what?

I'm still in no hurry to return.  My wife (educated, dual citizen) believes that what the Thai government is doing about Covid is good (I don't, but I continue to pester her to explain to me how destroying the economy is ok).  They had one confirmed case with the Eqyptian and the entire country lost its mind!  Imagine if tourism opened! OMG.

 

I sent her the Thai road accidents report yesterday ... 7414 dead, 38 yesterday vs 58 all time Covid deaths.  And I asked her how does she reconcile that?  She can't answer -- she is caught up in the moment that "we must have NO Covid infections at all costs" or we all die.  

And it truly is, "at all costs", IMO.

"No infections at all cost or we all die"... that's the mindset in many countries, unfortunately. 

 

We may not die of Covid but might perish in the social unrest which will develop, if the worldwide economy continues to get shut.

 

[ChakaKhan]

30 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

The best thing it to build up your immune system with lots of good stuff and go out and catch it.

Sounds good----(cracks open bottle of sangsom)

[ChakaKhan]

9 minutes ago, d2b2 said:

Is that a quote from Typhoid Mary? 

About beer?   Think it came from her sister, Bloody Mary.....I like her company sunday afternoons

[Miami007]

It is hot enough in most of the USA.. so it can't be the heat which prevented many infections in Thailand. 

 

Maybe people in SE Asia have some form of immunity against covid due to exposure to similar strains in the past? Otherwise, how does anyone explain the lack of infections in January and February when the country was open to Chinese tourists

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Too-tight virus policy is strangling economy, experts warn

Were told that tourism only generates 12% of GDP... so with tourism dead the other 88% from manufacturing exports etc should be holding firm and the country should not be in dire straits?

Or has someone been telling porkies?

[ThailandRyan]

13 minutes ago, visacrack said:

Still no word about the part that excess body fat plays >

 

 

Is it because many politicians are obese themselves thus can't really plead for the necessary nutrition reform without becoming (even more) implausible? Bungling Boris Johnson comes to mind...
 

Don't look to far away from the Thai Government and "Lil Fattie" Prawit himself...

[mtls2005]

1 minute ago, Miami007 said:

It is hot enough in most of the USA.. so it can't be the heat which prevented many infections in Thailand. 

Above average temps, 38 ish in hotspots like AZ, TX and FL. 

 

2 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

Maybe people in SE Asia have some form of immunity against covid due to exposure to similar strains in the past? Otherwise, how does anyone explain the lack of infections in January and February when the country was open to Chinese tourists

 

Hmm. So wouldn't Chinese people be most immune, "...due to exposure to similar strains in the past"?

[Amplish]

39 minutes ago, seancbk said:

As long as it's 20-30 high end tourists who are staying in 100,000 baht a night rooms. 

That made me pause as well, but I reckon the 20-30 refers to confirmed cases, related to the daily capacity of hospitals for new patients, not the number of daily tourist arrivals allowed.

[jojothai]

2 hours ago, DoctorG said:

I prefer the Trace, Isolate, and Test policy.

On the other hand if they did loosen up they could adopt the policy of

Let them in, Open up and

See what happens.

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

It is hot enough in most of the USA.. so it can't be the heat which prevented many infections in Thailand. 

 

Maybe people in SE Asia have some form of immunity against covid due to exposure to similar strains in the past? Otherwise, how does anyone explain the lack of infections in January and February when the country was open to Chinese tourists

No one was testing back then and even when they did see a doctor they were sent home with paracetamol and told to return if if it got worse....how ya like them apples.....kicked the can down the curb and then dreamed up numbers which were static for the longest time until the last 50 days of no new domestic cases except those in quarantine which they say were brought in with them....yet....oh forget it, sorry to rehash trash from the past as everyone knows what they want.

[kg1947]

Thailand is killing their economy due to the fear of Covid-19 .

Instead of learning from other successful countries , the authorities

here they are the ones - who know best  .... 

Too proud to admit - that there are others with higher level of 

thinking brain ....

[0815]

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

Until and when a vaccine will be found there are no other safe ways to contain the virus and stam the pandemic, if there was, every other country in the world would have done it already... so do what many others governments did, pay and support people and business to sit home... 

Are you sure that you have the right infos ?

[Starmocihc]

2 hours ago, AhFarangJa said:

Certainly not the case here in Hua Hin. Last night at least 90% of Thais were walking along without masks, only putting them on when they had to enter any premises. As for social distancing, lots of local restaurants with eight round a table all eating from the same four dishes on the table. I think everyone is getting tired of the rules and restrictions. 

Just wait how "tired of the rules and regs" they get when the economic tide comes in, should they continue on their current path. 

[shackleton]

I think you can forget Tourists coming here for a few more months proberly early next year especially with the 14 day quarantine  rule

Holidays is not on most peoples minds for this year

No one is travelling or flying at this time

Plus the majority cases of the corivirus cases is Thai Nationals returning to Thailand and put in quarantine 

[Baggy]

51 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Beer.

Beer cures everything.

Whiskey also good!!

[bipper]

3 hours ago, Destiny1990 said:

Bit late now to say sorry guys but we have overreacted..

 

There are groups saying that in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Victoria in Aus and Israel too. The old, those with serious health conditions, all health care workers and their families are not among them.

[Expat Tom]

'You Shall Reap What you Sow". After the coup (the latest one) the Junta was angry at the West for justified criticism so the "Generals" decided to cozy up to Big Brother to the north. They were offer some toys and boys always like toys. Exactly how long would the "Toy" Submarines last if Thailand chose to side with China against the West....somewhere between 2 and 3 hours.

 

So, the "Generals" hitched their dreams to the Yellow Star of the North and grew an economy overly dependant on 10,000,000 Chinese tourists per year. The Hoards from the North, like a plague of locust, polluted the air, disrespected Thai people, consumed resources and strained the infrastructure out of proportion to their economic contribution.

 

So, the brilliant generals have produced the worst performing economy in the region.   

 

The people of Thailand truly deserve better.

[Mavideol]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

“Initially, we could limit foreign arrivals as per the capacity of the healthcare system to handle new cases of perhaps 20-30 a day

sure, since this virus is so intelligent, they are going to tell it not to infect more than 20 people a day,  and while there just instruct it not to infect your family either... what planet are these people on

[Bangkok Barry]

3 hours ago, mtls2005 said:

You are NEVER, EVER going to get 38 million tourists back. Give it up.

 

Breakeven is probably 30 million tourists. Anything less than that you'll lose money.

 

 

 

 

On what basis do you say 30 million? Where is your source, or statistics? How do you arrive at that figure? And what does break even mean?

[wealthychef]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand should overcome concern of a second wave of Covid-19 and instead relax restrictions on foreign investors and tourists

 

These are a direct contradiction of each other.  

 

[mtls2005]

4 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

On what basis do you say 30 million? Where is your source, or statistics? How do you arrive at that figure? And what does break even mean?

 

It was a wild a$$ guess, but based on things like cost/price/margin.

 

For example flights are rarely profitable with loads much below 85 %. Unless tourists swim here they'd have to fly on full planes. Which carrier, other than TG, will operate these at a loss.

 

Hotels are rarely profitable with occupancy rates much below 65%. 

 

See where I'm going here?

 

Breakeven means not losing money.

 

The Thai model worked because everything was bassed on volume.

 

People need to face facts: things are not going back to where they were here. A smattering of tourists isn't going to cut it. The sooner people adjust the better. Clinging to the old model will get you nowhere.