Thai property prices softening?

[onebir]

The properties in today's TV email seem a bit cheaper than usual for that source (eg around $1500/m^2):

https://www.fazwaz.com/property-sales/2-bedroom-condo-for-sale-at-fortune-condo-town-in-chong-nonsi-bangkok-u629716

https://www.fazwaz.com/property-sales/1-bedroom-condo-for-sale-at-c-view-boutique-and-residence-in-nong-prue-pattaya-u629724

 

So I checked some stats, and It looks like these are now showing property prices falling. eg the DD Property Index is down about 5.3* in Q3 relative to Q1. The BoT Condo prices index** shows a 2.7% drop since peaking in Jan 2020.

 

I wonder if anyone who's been actively looking at property has noticed prices softening? (or not...)

Also, are there other property listing sites are worth checking apart from fazwaz? 

 

* DD Property Index 2020:

Q1: 207

Q2: 204 (-1.4%)

Q3: 196 (-3.9%, must be an estimate, because Q3 doesn't end till 30th Sept?)

https://www.ddproperty.com/insights/ddproperty-thailand-property-market-index-q3-2020-2-696

https://www.ddproperty.com/insights/ddproperty-thailand-property-market-index-q2-2020-651

https://www.ddproperty.com/insights/ddproperty-thailand-property-market-index-q1-2020-2-597

 

**

https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=680&language=eng

[Matzzon]

Yep, just buy! More fools to the chopping board!

[onebir]

3 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Yep, just buy! More fools to the chopping board!

Where in the OP did you find the implication 'now is the time to buy'?

[ChouDoufu]

prices dropping in an economic downturn?  crazy talk!  fewer buyers + no banks giving loans = higher prices.

 

my girlfriend arranged to buy a plot of land next to her sister in the province.  agreed on a price (too much i thought, but honey-bunny wants to be near family) with the seller.  she needs her son's signature to sell, but he's stuck in australia due to the covids.  asked if she wanted a deposit, she said no, she knows the family so trusts us.

 

after a couple months she calls the sister to have her inform us she's bumped the price up another 100k baht, but will cover the transfer fee (about 15k).  fine with me, price was already too high.  told her to tell the sister our offer is now 100k less.  hunny-bunny says no, we can't say that, she might get angry.  oh, really?  but we're not supposed to be angry?

[thaitero]

As for foreign quota condos many potential buyers can not come so if you are foreigner in the Thailand and want to buy condo, now is your time to make your move,,

 

 

[david555]

And another one ...40 sqm foreign name 20K a sqm , and looks even a descent one at 800K .

I am happy I changed plans 4 years ago not to buy !

At this prices Nirun ones never get sold anymore by this price competition 

 

https://www.bahtsold.com/view/40sqm-newly-renovated-condo-in-pratumnak-pattaya-only-yhb-799-000-402909

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by david555

[izod10]

34 minutes ago, thaitero said:

As for foreign quota condos many potential buyers can not come so if you are foreigner in the Thailand and want to buy condo, now is your time to make your move,,

 

 

"make your move"  right   wait another 12/24 months or forever will be giving them away    condos/houses up to your armpits  and not a hope in hell of selling

[Airalee]

I think prices have dropped further than what the “indexes” show.  
 

The two bedroom listing in the OP really has a depressing view.  All that space with only one tiny window in the living room looking right into another building.  Pass.

 

21 minutes ago, david555 said:

And another one ...40 sqm foreign name 20K a sqm , and looks even a descent one at 800K .

I am happy I changed plans 4 years ago not to buy !

At this prices Nirun ones never get sold anymore by this price competition 

 

https://www.bahtsold.com/view/40sqm-newly-renovated-condo-in-pratumnak-pattaya-only-yhb-799-000-402909

 

 Yeah....that puts Nirun back into the 400k range again...where it should be.

[Airalee]

42 minutes ago, ChouDoufu said:

after a couple months she calls the sister to have her inform us she's bumped the price up another 100k baht, but will cover the transfer fee (about 15k).  fine with me, price was already too high.  told her to tell the sister our offer is now 100k less.  hunny-bunny says no, we can't say that, she might get angry.  oh, really?  but we're not supposed to be angry?

Isn’t it funny the way Thais think like that?   My gf was helping a friend of hers buy a condo.  I told her to offer at least 20% below the asking price.  She said the same thing...”no...cannot...the seller might get angry”.

 

I finally convinced her (amazing how hard it was to do so) and lo and behold....it worked!  Her friend got a condo at a fair price.

[andytime]

The bigger the city the bigger the fall as living is reshaped.  Bkk tourist dependent and thousands of extra rooms surplus to the market.  Anything dependent on credit will fall pricewise.  Beneficiary regional areas with better and cheaper quality of living.  In bkk surplus for rental, empty rooms everywhere and no real solution at hand for crisis.. 20-60%....pre conditions for tom yum goong round 2....

[DrTuner]

Still early in the game. Give it 1y or so for the non-performing loans to skyrocket anf the market to saturate with fire sales.

[david555]

6 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Still early in the game. Give it 1y or so for the non-performing loans to skyrocket anf the market to saturate with fire sales.

The needed 800K on bank for ret. ext. is already for some a reason...especially now in this C19 visa situations  , as they probably invested that needed sum in their condo buy …."or worse" …. in the wife's / GF. house building ….

Bad planning ...

Edited August 18, 2020 by david555

[onebir]

1 hour ago, david555 said:

https://www.bahtsold.com/view/40sqm-newly-renovated-condo-in-pratumnak-pattaya-only-yhb-799-000-402909

 

Bookmarking bahtsold, thanks! Seems cheaper than fazzwazz, but maybe fewer listings?

[onebir]

45 minutes ago, Airalee said:

I think prices have dropped further than what the “indexes” show. 

This was the motivation for the OP.

 

Yeah the indexes definitely lag, and because they're broad averages don't reflect some local markets etc. (eg expat-popular areas may be worst affected?)

[pixelaoffy]

Bangkok has the craziest overpriced properties in Asia! The city is full of empty units and more being build to leave empty 

[david555]

6 minutes ago, onebir said:

Bookmarking bahtsold, thanks! Seems cheaper than fazzwazz, but maybe fewer listings?

Those are adverting there too ...

[Airalee]

1 minute ago, onebir said:

This was the motivation for the OP.

 

Yeah the indexes definitely lag, and because they're broad averages don't reflect some local markets etc. (eg expat-popular areas may be worst affected?)

It’s not just that indexes lag, but they don’t take into account the “mix” of properties sold.  As a bubble blows...Early on, you will see very average condos selling at high prices.  By the time the “peak” comes (and even before the peak)  the bubble has generally “popped” already because although the index prices may show the prices as steady (or even rising), the buyer is getting a lot more home for the price paid.

[onebir]

Just now, pixelaoffy said:

Bangkok has the craziest overpriced properties in Asia! The city is full of empty units and more being build to leave empty 

But probably less overpriced than any major city in China ????

[Matzzon]

2 hours ago, onebir said:

Where in the OP did you find the implication 'now is the time to buy'?

Where in my comment did you see that I wrote that?

[izod10]

17 minutes ago, onebir said:

Bookmarking bahtsold, thanks! Seems cheaper than fazzwazz, but maybe fewer listings?

Someone's going to be sorry!

[onebir]

1 minute ago, Airalee said:

It’s not just that indexes lag, but they don’t take into account the “mix” of properties sold.

Fair point, but a decent index should attempt to take into account the mix.

 

A simple way to do this is assigning transactions involving different properties to various pigeonholes based on size, location etc. (eg "1 bed, area x, 5-10 year old building"; "2 bed, area x, 10-20 year old building" might be different pigeonholes). Then calculate the changes in sales prices for each pigeonhole & take a weighted average.

 

Problem is, if transactions dry up - as I think they typically do at market turning points - a lot of pigeonholes will be empty or only have a few transactions. So the averages can become very noisy.  (I checked rightmove data for a London postal district recently: no transactions since May...)

[onebir]

4 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Where in my comment did you see that I wrote that?

"Yep, just buy! More fools to the chopping board! "

Feel free to translate...

[Airalee]

1 minute ago, onebir said:

Fair point, but a decent index should attempt to take into account the mix.

 

A simple way to do this is assigning transactions involving different properties to various pigeonholes based on size, location etc. (eg "1 bed, area x, 5-10 year old building"; "2 bed, area x, 10-20 year old building" might be different pigeonholes). Then calculate the changes in sales prices for each pigeonhole & take a weighted average.

I agree completely.  
 

I feel that the indexes are somewhat “questionable”...even the Case Shiller index In the US which many would have considered to be unbiased.  We housing bubble bloggers circa 2005-2009 used to pick it to death.  Most “indexes” seem to be put out by real estate associations with a vested interest in keeping prices high.  Realtors on commission, developers, banks making the loans etc.  By the time the “bottom” is called by the index, it will be back to selling the crappy homes and condos.  Best to buy before the bottom.  In order to do that, you almost have to be fanatical (bordering on obsessive compulsive disorder) in tracking the asking and selling prices of homes/condos over a long period of time. (Oh how I wish we had transparent sales records here)

[Matzzon]

9 minutes ago, onebir said:

"Yep, just buy! More fools to the chopping board! "

Feel free to translate...

Do you know what question you asked me in the post I quoted?

 

Translation: Not relevant!

 

Your reply: Not Relevant!

 

Wanna go for another try when the scores can really change?

[ChaiyaTH]

Be more patient, we are far from bottom. Don't try to catch a falling knife.
There is like limitless land in a aging population here and nobody really has money, they had credit and that is been used. Prices need a real review here.

Have been tempted already as I seen 90 square wah plots for under 300K baht with electric, water and main road there already + 20 mins out of CM.
But i believe the real price is 150k lol, if its 200-230k i will take it.

Edited August 18, 2020 by ChaiyaTH

[onebir]

7 minutes ago, Airalee said:

1>Most “indexes” seem to be put out by real estate associations with a vested interest in keeping prices high.  Realtors on commission, developers, banks making the loans etc.  

 

2>By the time the “bottom” is called by the index, it will be back to selling the crappy homes and condos.  Best to buy before the bottom.  

 

3>In order to do that, you almost have to be fanatical (bordering on obsessive compulsive disorder) in tracking the asking and selling prices of homes/condos over a long period of time. (Oh how I wish we had transparent sales records here)

1) Less of an incentive to BoT. (Presumably they access the transactions data, and need a handle on mortgage security valuations?)

 

2) Why do you think this is?

 

3) It might be possible to write a spider to collect asking prices from the main property listing sites; would that help?

 

 

[3NUMBAS]

59 minutes ago, pixelaoffy said:

Bangkok has the craziest overpriced properties in Asia! The city is full of empty units and more being build to leave empty 

shedloads of dirty money needs a happy home to park it

[Airalee]

15 minutes ago, onebir said:

1) Less of an incentive to BoT. (Presumably they access the transactions data, and need a handle on mortgage security valuations?)

 

2) Why do you think this is?

 

3) It might be possible to write a spider to collect asking prices from the main property listing sites; would that help?

 

 

1.  But the BoT is the entity that all the banks come to for bailouts.  Their dealings with the banks are completely separate from their dealings with the public (and the information released).

 

2.  It is just what I have observed by studying housing bubbles in the US.  I probably am OCD ????  The good stuff ends up sold through insider deals etc.  The bankers and the builders run the show.  Always have....probably always will.  Why would they actually come out and say “NOW is the time to get the best deal”?  They are motivated by profit.  It’s nothing nefarious...it’s just business.

 

3.  The problem with collecting asking prices is that you would end up with the pie in the sky prices that so many people are hoping to get for their concrete boxes.  If you look often, and closely...you’ll sometimes see a unit that is priced aggressively and is well below the others in the building based on cost per sqm (but you also have to consider the mix in the building as some lines are more desirable than others).   You still won’t know what that unit sold for and if it was one with an open view or one that looks in to the building next door, for example.   Then...what if it has been remodeled?  And if so, how nicely?  I think that even someone with the most honorable of intentions would have a tough time indexing the prices.

[pixelaoffy]

2 hours ago, onebir said:

But probably less overpriced than any major city in China ????

Actually not true, Many Chinese cities have had to reduce prices, maybe not  Beijing Shanghai. But remember in China they are building because the native population needs the housing and the economy is growing 5% plus or minus  1 or 2 %  every year. Bangkok hasnt got loads of country folk buying to move in, relying mainly on the wealthy Bangkok Thais buying to rent and foreigners, particularly Chinese to spend their RMB when they can get it out of China.  That is now going downhill 

Edited August 18, 2020 by pixelaoffy

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, ChaiyaTH said:

Be more patient, we are far from bottom. Don't try to catch a falling knife.
There is like limitless land in a aging population here and nobody really has money, they had credit and that is been used. Prices need a real review here.

Have been tempted already as I seen 90 square wah plots for under 300K baht with electric, water and main road there already + 20 mins out of CM.
But i believe the real price is 150k lol, if its 200-230k i will take it.

MIL is getting offers from a family member to flog off 40 rai of productive farmland for 100k/rai near Khon Kaen. It was almost double just two years ago, no takers. I'll wait until it's 20k/rai and buy it as a gift for her. She's been collecting her ancestral land back from her siblings for decades now. 

 

Time to become a scavenger will be H2/2021 and onwards. No mercy.