Thai property prices softening?

[onebir]

1 minute ago, pixelaoffy said:

1> Actually not true, Many Chinese cities have had to reduce prices, maybe not  Beijing Shanghai.

 

2> But remember in China they are building because the native population needs the housing and the economy is growing 5% plus or minus  every year.

 

3> Bangkok hasnt got loads of country folk buying to move in

1> I was in Kunming last year, it was more expensive than most what I've seen listed in Bangkok. (& KM is just a "third tier" city.)

 

2> Many apartments are left standing empty as investments; people buying to protect wealth/speculate, they're building because it's profitable because interest rates are being held low (because that stimulates investment & construction & creates employment).

 

3> Nor does China; rural workers, new graduates etc can't afford to buy at current prices.

[onebir]

1 hour ago, Airalee said:

1.  But the BoT is the entity that all the banks come to for bailouts.  Their dealings with the banks are completely separate from their dealings with the public (and the information released).

 

2.  It is just what I have observed by studying housing bubbles in the US.  I probably am OCD ????  The good stuff ends up sold through insider deals etc. 

 

3.  The problem with collecting asking prices is that you would end up with the pie in the sky prices that so many people are hoping to get for their concrete boxes. 

1. True, but does BoT want to run two sets of stats? It's actually quite difficult to convincingly fake data.

 

2. Ok, but if you had a theory about why, it might be easier to generalize to other countries.

 

3. Sure, but even asking prices soften in a weak market (that was the reason for the OP). When the  softening slows or stops, one might conclude the market is bottoming. One more thing to OCD over ????

[izod10]

11 hours ago, izod10 said:

Someone's going to be sorry!

Selling a condo right now..well done??  up to the armpits with the stuff,over your head with house sales  With condos though,especially now and even before COVID too,the unsold in big complex is one hell of a headache.  Blight,the unsold take over,a firesale becomes the new norm,unkept stinking trash everywhere,for sure it will happen

[jackdd]

The prices will definitely go down, there are just too many people who buy property on finance to rent it out who can barely afford the mortage payments. If there are no renters they will soon default on the loans and the condos will be repossessed, they don't have the option to just wait the situation out.

 

I recently moved into a two year old condo project here in Chiang Mai, the condo which i rent now sold for about 4.5 million. Before Covid it usually rented out at about 22-23k THB, some as high as 25k. Asking price on the usual websites is currently 20k with quite a few empty ones. My landlord accepted 15k per month.

[tomazbodner]

Just saw 17 million, awfully decorated single bedroom place in Hua Hin at the top of newsletter today. Surely this isn't representative of any prices softening. It says "rarely found". Yes, 200k/m2 is quite a rare find... Especially for Hua Hin.

[onebir]

6 hours ago, jackdd said:

Before Covid it usually rented out at about 22-23k THB, some as high as 25k. Asking price on the usual websites is currently 20k with quite a few empty ones. My landlord accepted 15k per month.

Say 22.5k -> 15k; 33%... that's a big drop. Where rents go I guess property prices are likely to eventually follow. Was that the pattern last time there was a significant property price drop in Thailand?

[Surelynot]

I think advertised prices bear little relationship to what is actually happening in the market place.

 

Any meaningful stat's would have to be based on actual selling prices, if they are available.

Edited August 19, 2020 by Surelynot

[scubascuba3]

22 hours ago, david555 said:

And another one ...40 sqm foreign name 20K a sqm , and looks even a descent one at 800K .

I am happy I changed plans 4 years ago not to buy !

At this prices Nirun ones never get sold anymore by this price competition 

 

https://www.bahtsold.com/view/40sqm-newly-renovated-condo-in-pratumnak-pattaya-only-yhb-799-000-402909

 

Those look ok but they've intentionally hidden the building which looks run down thai style, Soi 4 and as we know you can't polish a turxd.

 

I have seen prices falling on facebook.

 

Plus the upcoming bloodbath where repossessions go to auction

[onebir]

34 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Plus the upcoming bloodbath where repossessions go to auction

That reminds me, this is a Philippines site specializing in repo properties:

buenamano.ph/

Anything like that for Thailand?

[david555]

1 hour ago, scubascuba3 said:

Those look ok but they've intentionally hidden the building which looks run down thai style, Soi 4 and as we know you can't polish a turxd.

 

I have seen prices falling on facebook.

 

Plus the upcoming bloodbath where repossessions go to auction

As we speak about hiding bad facts ....well this Real Estate Agent  did a big job with " Photoshopping" removing all the close surrounding High condo building " in real  Encircling "this one ,before"..a very attractive Thai resort style condominium  , feel real pity for those owners who saw their value cut in half when the promotors attacked / building around ...…., one was sold 3 years ago for only 1399.000 a 53sqm , the one beside that sold one  still for sale  for 3 years from 2.500K dropping to 2.2K and now for 2.1K , 

 

This situated behind the Romphoe area " The Residence "

 

So this big 80+ sqm one has a long way to go for a sale 

Just a shame how agents try cheating already on picture ….. what about the rest they would do...?

 

https://www.bahtsold.com/view/80-sqm-jomtien-1-bedroom-condo-for-sale-or-rent-397594

 

Edited August 19, 2020 by david555

[Halfaboy]

Plus that the inside of the property was pictured with a wide angle lens....

[3NUMBAS]

they did in 97 so this time its far worse than 97 ..the hulks were still around many years later with rusting rebar

[onebir]

42 minutes ago, david555 said:

As we speak about hiding bad facts ....well this Real Estate Agent  did a big job with " Photoshopping" removing all the close surrounding High condo building " in real

 

https://www.bahtsold.com/view/80-sqm-jomtien-1-bedroom-condo-for-sale-or-rent-397594

 

So this is why the sky is white in the outside pic??

[david555]

30 minutes ago, onebir said:

So this is why the sky is white in the outside pic??

Yes they did a big photoshop job ....???? hoping to convince you by talking ..????...many are using old pictures from earlier surroundibg situations ...not only happens with this condominium ....as curtains are closed on condo pictures facing the balcony side ...you have to start becoming suspicious ...or 1 same condo  3 different agents with 3 different sqm .....????

I said it before Pattay should be renamed Siam Pirate's Bay..????

 

 

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Edited August 19, 2020 by david555

[onebir]

23 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

they did in 97 so this time its far worse than 97 ..the hulks were still around many years later with rusting rebar

The wideangle lens photos or....?

[scubascuba3]

1 hour ago, Halfaboy said:

Plus that the inside of the property was pictured with a wide angle lens....

Yes, some are so misleading the wide angle lens make them look quite big then they say 24m²...

[david555]

7 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Yes, some are so misleading the wide angle lens make them look quite big then they say 24m²...

Or make a toilet look like a shower tub .....

 

[sammieuk1]

I'm looking to get out of smokie CM and make for the Cha Am Hua Hin area but see little price movement yet in the 3-5m house bracket but then again I'm locked out so no one will be getting their hands on my mills anytime soon ???? 

[onebir]

48 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

I'm looking to get out of smokie CM

"I'm looking to trade up in CM, thanks to the area's superb mask compliance during the smoky season"

FTFY!

[izod10]

2 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

they did in 97 so this time its far worse than 97 ..the hulks were still around many years later with rusting rebar

This is 97 plus plus plus on stilts

[Leaver]

Buy now and beat the 2026 price rise.  ????

[onebir]

13 minutes ago, izod10 said:

This is 97 plus plus plus on stilts

Actually the BIS does an index for Bangkok going back to 91, idk if it's particularly good. Shows a 36% drop before a very sharp bounceback:

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QTHR628BIS

[Airalee]

3 hours ago, david555 said:

Yes they did a big photoshop job ....???? hoping to convince you by talking ..????...many are using old pictures from earlier surroundibg situations ...not only happens with this condominium ....as curtains are closed on condo pictures facing the balcony side ...you have to start becoming suspicious ...or 1 same condo  3 different agents with 3 different sqm .....????

I said it before Pattay should be renamed Siam Pirate's Bay..????

 

 

.

.

Yeah...gotta love the 5 year old pictures that show a lovely view only to find that there is a new building built right next door blocking 100% of the view currently.  There is also the high powered zoom lens tactic where they will zoom in on the view between two buildings and then post that photo as if it’s the real view....but it’s only 10% of the view.  Closed curtains is a dead giveaway.  And what’s the deal with the 1x floor descriptor?  Is it the 10th floor or the 19th?  Don’t make me guess.

[Airalee]

Other ways to hide the softening of prices is by keeping the sales price the same but offering all kinds of freebies.  
 

Currently, going beyond the usual free furniture and kitchen appliances, I have seen offers for up to 10 baht of gold,  free Porsche Caymans,  buy one get one free condos and buy a house and get a free condo.

 

You think the value of that gold, car or extra condo is subtracted from the sales price when these colorful charts are produced?

 

[onebir]

13 minutes ago, Airalee said:

1>Currently, going beyond the usual free furniture and kitchen appliances, I have seen offers for up to 10 baht of gold,  free Porsche Caymans,  buy one get one free condos and buy a house and get a free condo.

 

2> You think the value of that gold, car or extra condo is subtracted from the sales price when these colorful charts are produced?

1> Currently??! Presumably this is just developer sales?

2> Doubt it... but I guess the prevalence of 'extras' is a good clue the market's weak...

[david555]

20 minutes ago, onebir said:

1> Currently??! Presumably this is just developer sales?

2> Doubt it... but I guess the prevalence of 'extras' is a good clue the market's weak...

The most evidence of the drop of sales is the  many finance offers from individual owners lately .....5 years ago that was almost not existing.

The smart ones are those who take their losses ....as the stuborn ones will have more losses as times dont go improve ..

 

[Airalee]

25 minutes ago, onebir said:

1> Currently??! Presumably this is just developer sales?

2> Doubt it... but I guess the prevalence of 'extras' is a good clue the market's weak...

Yes...developer sales.  Developers will always win when in competition with second hand resellers.  Especially here in Thailand where there aren’t any nice old homes for sale.  There aren’t any 1920s tudors or or Eichler mid-century moderns purchased in the 60s or 70s coming on the market where the owners can walk away with substantial profits.

 

The prevalence of extras is obviously a clue that the market is weak.  For real estate geeks such as myself, they are even more obvious.  Screamingly obvious. 

[Airalee]

1 minute ago, david555 said:

The smart ones are those who take their losses ....as the stuborn ones will have more losses as times dont go improve .

Never underestimate the propensity for a seller to chase the market down.

 

“Hope dies last”

 

 

[onebir]

18 minutes ago, Airalee said:

For real estate geeks such as myself, they are even more obvious.  Screamingly obvious. 

This should be your thread ????

[Airalee]

1 hour ago, onebir said:

This should be your thread ????

Pearls before swine