Sonthi warns crisis likely in May

[John K]

I think the Court ruling day will pass realitively peacefully. No coups, no revolutions.

TRT is yesterday's year's news, no one gives a ###### about them, their active grassroot support is overestimated and the generals will nip it in the bud.

At most there will be another PTV rally and people will forget about in three days.

There is a chance you could be right. All the little things like flags on taxis, and lights in. I guess if you pay them each there is no problem for doing that for a day. In a way it sounds like they are planning for a low turnout. But nevertheless it is wise to be ready for anything and discourage troublemakers.

So looking beyond if the TRT and Democrats go down, who or what will fill the vacuum? There is a lot of subtle suggestions in the news of doom and gloom if you have not noticed. Most I am sure are from the TRT implying that they are the only ones who can save the day.

[John K]

I predicted the fist coup last year, long before it was seriously fashionable to do so, and amazingly I was the first to break the news on Thai Visa, when an incredulous friend, who had been doubting my mental faculties, called me in a very agitated state to tell me that he had heard from his Thai fiancée, (whose family was close to Thaksin), that the coup was actually in progress.

About a month back, I predicted a second coup would happen in the next couple of months or so, and I now believe this more than ever.

I think Gen Sonthi and his henchman will seek to consolidate their grip on power with another coup, and this time there will be no pretence to hand back to civlians any time soon.

It will get worse before it gets better - mark my words.

Just curious, what would be the driving force behind the coup you predict? The one in September was very obvious that Thaksin was completely out of control. From what I see is things are still following the script.

[blaze]

I predicted the fist coup last year, long before it was seriously fashionable to do so, and amazingly I was the first to break the news on Thai Visa, when an incredulous friend, who had been doubting my mental faculties, called me in a very agitated state to tell me that he had heard from his Thai fiancée, (whose family was close to Thaksin), that the coup was actually in progress.

About a month back, I predicted a second coup would happen in the next couple of months or so, and I now believe this more than ever.

I think Gen Sonthi and his henchman will seek to consolidate their grip on power with another coup, and this time there will be no pretence to hand back to civlians any time soon.

It will get worse before it gets better - mark my words.

Just curious, what would be the driving force behind the coup you predict? The one in September was very obvious that Thaksin was completely out of control. From what I see is things are still following the script.

You have been reading TV and are one of its most prolific posters- and you have to ask that? Go back to the NY eve bombings thread- the attempted assasination of Thaksin thread- and many more... to put it very simply- not everybody is happy about the relatively liberal nature of the current regime. It's just might actually restore democracy- (crude, faltering, in its infancy- but still- majority rule). And not everybody (not even all TV posters) think Thailand is 'ready' for democracy-

Edited May 24, 2007 by blaze

[Siripon]

I predicted the fist coup last year, long before it was seriously fashionable to do so, and amazingly I was the first to break the news on Thai Visa, when an incredulous friend, who had been doubting my mental faculties, called me in a very agitated state to tell me that he had heard from his Thai fiancée, (whose family was close to Thaksin), that the coup was actually in progress.

About a month back, I predicted a second coup would happen in the next couple of months or so, and I now believe this more than ever.

I think Gen Sonthi and his henchman will seek to consolidate their grip on power with another coup, and this time there will be no pretence to hand back to civlians any time soon.

It will get worse before it gets better - mark my words.

A very astute friend who lives in Bangkok made this comment after the September coup = "It will all end in tears !"

I like your expression 'fist coup' Mobi, it has an air of toughness behind it, which is how it should be with a coup.

The coup had been predicted for several months by many people before it happened so don't get too boastful.

To end in tears is a lot better than ending in bloodshed which was the alternative if Thaksin had remained in power, a man not concerned about the loss of innocent lives, either in the 'drugs war' or the deep south.

A second coup, if it happens, will be more a case of the PM resigning because he's not up to the challenge of reforming Thai politics.

I heard that TRT, in the face of possible dissolution, wished to bring 198 elephants to Bangkok but some mahouts refused on the grounds that the elephant was the symbol of Thailand and should not be dragged into politics; secondly the money they were offered,6,000 baht, was not enough even though they were promised they would not face arrest.

Still, I would love to see 198 elephants roaming Phetburi Dtad Mai, Sukhumwit, Silom, Samsen roads,etc!

[John K]

Blaze, I am not disputing your’s or mobi’s opinion, I just wanted to be sure of what they were and why. What events have transpired that give support and so on for another coup. Over the last two weeks or so this has all become somewhat of a blur as there are way too many things going on to focus on in one with any great detail, I am sure you can agree with that. The last time I heard any rumblings from the military was from class 10 complaining about promotions os something along that line.

Edited May 24, 2007 by John K

[hammered]

I'll join in the making predictions club. Whatever the verdict there will be a lot of people not happy with it. You heard it first here.

[Plus]

I think the Court ruling day will pass realitively peacefully. No coups, no revolutions.

TRT is yesterday's year's news, no one gives a ###### about them, their active grassroot support is overestimated and the generals will nip it in the bud.

At most there will be another PTV rally and people will forget about in three days.

There is a chance you could be right. All the little things like flags on taxis, and lights in. I guess if you pay them each there is no problem for doing that for a day. In a way it sounds like they are planning for a low turnout. But nevertheless it is wise to be ready for anything and discourage troublemakers.

So looking beyond if the TRT and Democrats go down, who or what will fill the vacuum? There is a lot of subtle suggestions in the news of doom and gloom if you have not noticed. Most I am sure are from the TRT implying that they are the only ones who can save the day.

I haven't noticed any flags on taxis and no one turns on their headlights to save TRT. When last year, during PAD rallies, Surayud (privy councilor at the time) asked people to drive with lights on to show that they are tired of confrontation and that opposing parties need to talk, headlights were everywhere. Relatively everywhere, as at that point I thought there were not too many.

Now it's slow news days, nothing's happening, really, so every little voice gets prominent coverage in the papers, esepecially if it's about doom and gloom.

General public doesn't care, the looming court verdict has no personal issue to it, no emotional involvement unlike Thaksin's trial that held the whole nation in suspense. No one has a personal opinion whether TRT really bribed the parties and or that Democrats didn't play by the rules, too.

But look at today's Nation's front page - seven possible ways the verdict can go, detailed write up on all possible consequences of every improbable outcome, like the parties are dissolved but no executes are punished. Who cares?

The other day Sutthichai Yoon lamented how the media keep on banging the same two headlines in every possible word combination for months: "Will there be another coup?" and "Will Surayud be sacked?"

They just need to fill the pages.

People are tired. They are tired of rhetorics and enthusiasm and revolutions and want to get on with their lives.

[Mobi]

Just curious, what would be the driving force behind the coup you predict? The one in September was very obvious that Thaksin was completely out of control. From what I see is things are still following the script.

You got the bog standard prediction for free - gratis.

If you want the premium prediction - date, place,name of elephant, etc., I've already told you - it'll cost ya.

[Jai Dee]

Thai political situation awaits May 30

As it is widely feared that political chaos will erupt in Thailand next Wednesday, a crucial day for both the two biggest parties of the Thai Rak Thai Party and the Democrat Party, Thai authorities have prepared for diversified possibilities that could loom during the period.

According to Defence Minister Boonrawd Somtas, since the prime minister is scheduled to be out of the country from May 28 to 31 and the verdicts in the party dissolution cases on May 30 would arouse widely protests around the country, the military could control the situation.

Boonrawd was quoted by Thursday's Bangkok Post as saying that the government has closely examined the situation and concluded that disorder is likely. But he said he believes the military could control the situation the absence of the prime minister.

He said if there are any untoward incidents, Surayud would immediately fly back to Thailand.

Boonrawd said an emergency decree would be issued if the situation warrants, but it would be the government and not the military that issues it.

It was the duty of police to control the groups of people which are expected to gather in Bangkok to show support for political parties which are facing the threat of dissolution.

National police chief Seripisuth Temiyavej said security measures have been put in place to cope with possible violence on May 29, when individual judges will issue their opinions, and on May 30, when the Constitution Tribunal will issue its formal verdict.

Seripisuth said police, soldiers and the city administration were joining forces to deal with any incidents during this period. He urged people to stay at home, as the rulings would be broadcast on radio and television.

On Wednesday, the Council for Nation Security chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin met local leaders in northeastern province of Nakhon Ratchasima, in what was seen as a bid to prevent demonstrators from traveling to Bangkok next week.

Speaking to more than 800 village heads and kamnans, Sonthi urged local leaders and residents to unite, to join hands with the military and state agencies to protect the country, the Bangkok Post said.

A week before "Judgment Day" on the 2006 election fraud cases, the Thai Rak Thai Party has stepped up preparations for being dissolved and launched a popularity campaign.

Tens of thousands of taxi drivers have been asked to turn on their headlights and mount red flags in support of the party. The party will also set up a stage in front of its headquarters on May 30 for its members and followers to monitor the tribunal's rulings.

If dissolved, unaffected party members will seek to register a new party, but under the old "Thai Rak Thai" name, said local media, quoting several members of the Thai Rak Thai which was found by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Meanwhile, police have moved since this week to block 198 elephants and thousands of villagers mainly from the North and Northeast from entering Bangkok to protest the possible dissolution of the Thai Rak Thai, the country's biggest political party.

Source: Xinhua - 25 May 2007

[Jai Dee]

Forum of the Poor requests for mobile toilets during period of protests at Gov House

More than 100 members of the Forum of the Poor have gathered in front of the Bangkok City Hall, requesting the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) to provide more mobile toilettes and water trucks for the network’s demonstrators in front of the Government House.

BMA set up metal fences at entrances and exits of the city hall to prevent the members of the network from entering the place as it is afraid that the situation would get worse. Khemphet Somphawa (เข็มเพชร สมภาวะ), one of the members, says the demonstrators at the Government House who have staged rallies since May 23rd are in need of clean water supply and toilettes. The Forum of the Poor indicated that there would be an approximate 1000 demonstrators..

Mr Khemphet affirms the rally in front of the Government House has nothing to do with politics and the demonstrators will not stage another rally on May 30th when the Constitutional Tribunal reaches a verdict on the political party dissolution case. He says if the government promises to reolve some of their prolonged issues, they will return to their hometowns immediately.

Meanwhile, Deputy Spokesman of BMA Thanom Onketphon (ถนอม อ่อนเกตุพล) says BMA will try to find mobile toilettes as requested by the network; however, it has to mobilize mobile toilettes and water trucks for the Week of Vesak’s activities held at Sanam Luang next week.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 25 May 2007

[Mid]

On Wednesday, the Council for Nation Security chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin met local leaders in northeastern province of Nakhon Ratchasima, in what was seen as a bid to prevent demonstrators from traveling to Bangkok next week.

as posted elsewhere , this prevention order is a reality ,

human rights ............................

[sriracha john]

The deprivation of toilets is a human rights issue, too.

[Jai Dee]

PM to cut short his visit to China

Prime Minister Surayud Chalanont decides to cut short his official visit to China late this month. The decision was made hours after HM the King warned of disturbance over the upcoming Constitution Tribunal verdict on the future of two major political parties.

Surayud said he leaves for Beijing on May 28 and returns the following day, instead of May 31 as earlier scheduled.

His earlier schedule will make him not in the country when the Tribunal ruled on May 30 on Thai Rak Thai and Democrat Party's allegations that they violated the election laws. Any party that were found guilty would be dissolved.

Surayud did not elaborate the reason. His decision came a day after HM the King said he had grave concern on the country's situation after the Tribunal delivered verdict on the trials.

Source: The Nation - 25 May 2007

[Mid]

1 + 1 = 2.

[John K]

Just curious, what would be the driving force behind the coup you predict? The one in September was very obvious that Thaksin was completely out of control. From what I see is things are still following the script.

You got the bog standard prediction for free - gratis.

If you want the premium prediction - date, place,name of elephant, etc., I've already told you - it'll cost ya.

Although I have not disclosed all the methods I use on how I make my predictions, the most reliable and accurate is I contact county fairs and get the results from “Cow chip bingo.” The cows know exactly where the s*** will happen.

[Siripon]

I think the Court ruling day will pass realitively peacefully. No coups, no revolutions.

TRT is yesterday's year's news, no one gives a ###### about them, their active grassroot support is overestimated and the generals will nip it in the bud.

At most there will be another PTV rally and people will forget about in three days.

There is a chance you could be right. All the little things like flags on taxis, and lights in. I guess if you pay them each there is no problem for doing that for a day. In a way it sounds like they are planning for a low turnout. But nevertheless it is wise to be ready for anything and discourage troublemakers.

So looking beyond if the TRT and Democrats go down, who or what will fill the vacuum? There is a lot of subtle suggestions in the news of doom and gloom if you have not noticed. Most I am sure are from the TRT implying that they are the only ones who can save the day.

I haven't noticed any flags on taxis and no one turns on their headlights to save TRT. When last year, during PAD rallies, Surayud (privy councilor at the time) asked people to drive with lights on to show that they are tired of confrontation and that opposing parties need to talk, headlights were everywhere. Relatively everywhere, as at that point I thought there were not too many.

Now it's slow news days, nothing's happening, really, so every little voice gets prominent coverage in the papers, esepecially if it's about doom and gloom.

General public doesn't care, the looming court verdict has no personal issue to it, no emotional involvement unlike Thaksin's trial that held the whole nation in suspense. No one has a personal opinion whether TRT really bribed the parties and or that Democrats didn't play by the rules, too.

But look at today's Nation's front page - seven possible ways the verdict can go, detailed write up on all possible consequences of every improbable outcome, like the parties are dissolved but no executes are punished. Who cares?

The other day Sutthichai Yoon lamented how the media keep on banging the same two headlines in every possible word combination for months: "Will there be another coup?" and "Will Surayud be sacked?"

They just need to fill the pages.

People are tired. They are tired of rhetorics and enthusiasm and revolutions and want to get on with their lives.

I think you're very wrong on this Plus. The general public see this government as bumbling bureaucrats with no real understanding on how to run the economy. Expect to see the taxi headlights in a day or two.

The working class, both urban and rural, miss Thaksin and his populist policies. If TRT are banned there will be widespread discontent for sure, but if the executives are not all banned, expect Somkhit or Somsak to take the helm in a new party.

Personally I would like to see a new party that offers both short and long term policies to the poor, rural and urban, but without the meglomania and hype of Thaksin.

A mixture of the Democrats' pragmatism, experience and TRT resourcefulness.

[blaze]

I think the Court ruling day will pass realitively peacefully. No coups, no revolutions.

TRT is yesterday's year's news, no one gives a ###### about them, their active grassroot support is overestimated and the generals will nip it in the bud.

At most there will be another PTV rally and people will forget about in three days.

There is a chance you could be right. All the little things like flags on taxis, and lights in. I guess if you pay them each there is no problem for doing that for a day. In a way it sounds like they are planning for a low turnout. But nevertheless it is wise to be ready for anything and discourage troublemakers.

So looking beyond if the TRT and Democrats go down, who or what will fill the vacuum? There is a lot of subtle suggestions in the news of doom and gloom if you have not noticed. Most I am sure are from the TRT implying that they are the only ones who can save the day.

I haven't noticed any flags on taxis and no one turns on their headlights to save TRT. When last year, during PAD rallies, Surayud (privy councilor at the time) asked people to drive with lights on to show that they are tired of confrontation and that opposing parties need to talk, headlights were everywhere. Relatively everywhere, as at that point I thought there were not too many.

Now it's slow news days, nothing's happening, really, so every little voice gets prominent coverage in the papers, esepecially if it's about doom and gloom.

General public doesn't care, the looming court verdict has no personal issue to it, no emotional involvement unlike Thaksin's trial that held the whole nation in suspense. No one has a personal opinion whether TRT really bribed the parties and or that Democrats didn't play by the rules, too.

But look at today's Nation's front page - seven possible ways the verdict can go, detailed write up on all possible consequences of every improbable outcome, like the parties are dissolved but no executes are punished. Who cares?

The other day Sutthichai Yoon lamented how the media keep on banging the same two headlines in every possible word combination for months: "Will there be another coup?" and "Will Surayud be sacked?"

They just need to fill the pages.

People are tired. They are tired of rhetorics and enthusiasm and revolutions and want to get on with their lives.

I would like to see a new party that offers both short and long term policies to the poor, rural and urban, but without the meglomania and hype of Thaksin.

A mixture of the Democrats' pragmatism, experience and TRT resourcefulness.

And who will pay for those policies? The middle class? The business people? The old elites? What you describe is the worst case scenario for the junta and it varied clients. You are talking about a threat to the status quo that even Thaksin couldn't manage- do you honestly believe that this coup was engineered to bring about a more equitable shake for the poor in the country? Why do you think there is the hostility to professional polititians- because they're all crooks? Or because they might actually accomplish something? Against strong government? Against established political parties... I fully support your dream- but I don't think it would find much support among the people who stand to lose under such a scenario- or their hired guns.

[hammered]

I think the Court ruling day will pass realitively peacefully. No coups, no revolutions.

TRT is yesterday's year's news, no one gives a ###### about them, their active grassroot support is overestimated and the generals will nip it in the bud.

At most there will be another PTV rally and people will forget about in three days.

There is a chance you could be right. All the little things like flags on taxis, and lights in. I guess if you pay them each there is no problem for doing that for a day. In a way it sounds like they are planning for a low turnout. But nevertheless it is wise to be ready for anything and discourage troublemakers.

So looking beyond if the TRT and Democrats go down, who or what will fill the vacuum? There is a lot of subtle suggestions in the news of doom and gloom if you have not noticed. Most I am sure are from the TRT implying that they are the only ones who can save the day.

I haven't noticed any flags on taxis and no one turns on their headlights to save TRT. When last year, during PAD rallies, Surayud (privy councilor at the time) asked people to drive with lights on to show that they are tired of confrontation and that opposing parties need to talk, headlights were everywhere. Relatively everywhere, as at that point I thought there were not too many.

Now it's slow news days, nothing's happening, really, so every little voice gets prominent coverage in the papers, esepecially if it's about doom and gloom.

General public doesn't care, the looming court verdict has no personal issue to it, no emotional involvement unlike Thaksin's trial that held the whole nation in suspense. No one has a personal opinion whether TRT really bribed the parties and or that Democrats didn't play by the rules, too.

But look at today's Nation's front page - seven possible ways the verdict can go, detailed write up on all possible consequences of every improbable outcome, like the parties are dissolved but no executes are punished. Who cares?

The other day Sutthichai Yoon lamented how the media keep on banging the same two headlines in every possible word combination for months: "Will there be another coup?" and "Will Surayud be sacked?"

They just need to fill the pages.

People are tired. They are tired of rhetorics and enthusiasm and revolutions and want to get on with their lives.

I would like to see a new party that offers both short and long term policies to the poor, rural and urban, but without the meglomania and hype of Thaksin.

A mixture of the Democrats' pragmatism, experience and TRT resourcefulness.

And who will pay for those policies? The middle class? The business people? The old elites? What you describe is the worst case scenario for the junta and it varied clients. You are talking about a threat to the status quo that even Thaksin couldn't manage- do you honestly believe that this coup was engineered to bring about a more equitable shake for the poor in the country? Why do you think there is the hostility to professional polititians- because they're all crooks? Or because they might actually accomplish something? Against strong government? Against established political parties... I fully support your dream- but I don't think it would find much support among the people who stand to lose under such a scenario- or their hired guns.

And here too we get into another unmentioned and thorny issue - the necessary widening of the tax base and the complete revamp of the taxation system which will be needed if anyone wants to really institute the so-called populist polices. Mind you in a democracy any talk of tax is usually avoided by poliiticians unless they are reducing it. Will any politiican really want to tell people that things like health care systems and schemes to benefit the lowest earners have to be paid for and dont come free on trees?

[Jai Dee]

PM visits PRC today

The Prime Minister will be be visiting the People's Republic of China in order to strengthen relations and discuss future cooperation.

Prime Minister Gen Surayud Chulanont is scheduled to visit the People's Republic of China from May 28-29th in a gesture aimed at strengthening bilateral relations. Gen Surayud said he hoped to reaffirm the many agreements signed between China and Thailand, in order to promote economic, cultural, and technological cooperation in the future.

The Prime Minister will also discuss the construction of a rail route from the southern region of China in Yunan province to the northern region of Thailand. Gen Surayud said he would exchange ideas with China's leaders on self-sufficiency economic principles and the goal of creating a happy population. He revealed that China has been following Thailand's political situation closely, and is especially interested in the southern reconciliation process.

The Prime Minister will depart from the Wing 6 Royal Thai Air Force base at 8:30 AM today (May 28).

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 28 May 2007

[Jai Dee]

2nd Army Area Commander admits supporters of two parties are gathering people to come to BKK

The Second Army Area Commander, Lt. Gen. Suchit Sitthiprapha, admits political cores have incited crowds to stage rallies in Bangkok on May 30th. However, the military personnel are cooperating with the local authorities to expedite better understanding with public members.

Lt. Gen. Suchit says groups who are supporting two major political parties are gathering masses of people to travel to Bangkok on the day the party dissolution case will be ruled. However, the Second Army Area is cooperating with the provincial and local administrative organizations, including community leaders and local politicians, in creating a better understanding of the situation with public members.

The military personnel have been deployed to the various checkpoints on the main routes. They will examine public buses and private vans on suspicious movements.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 28 May 2007

[ThaiGoon]

2nd Army Area Commander admits supporters of two parties are gathering people to come to BKK

The Second Army Area Commander, Lt. Gen. Suchit Sitthiprapha, admits political cores have incited crowds to stage rallies in Bangkok on May 30th. However, the military personnel are cooperating with the local authorities to expedite better understanding with public members.

Lt. Gen. Suchit says groups who are supporting two major political parties are gathering masses of people to travel to Bangkok on the day the party dissolution case will be ruled. However, the Second Army Area is cooperating with the provincial and local administrative organizations, including community leaders and local politicians, in creating a better understanding of the situation with public members.

The military personnel have been deployed to the various checkpoints on the main routes. They will examine public buses and private vans on suspicious movements.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 28 May 2007

I thought they were supposed to adhere to the king's words. Hmmm.

[Tony Clifton]

2nd Army Area Commander admits supporters of two parties are gathering people to come to BKK

The Second Army Area Commander, Lt. Gen. Suchit Sitthiprapha, admits political cores have incited crowds to stage rallies in Bangkok on May 30th. However, the military personnel are cooperating with the local authorities to expedite better understanding with public members.

Lt. Gen. Suchit says groups who are supporting two major political parties are gathering masses of people to travel to Bangkok on the day the party dissolution case will be ruled. However, the Second Army Area is cooperating with the provincial and local administrative organizations, including community leaders and local politicians, in creating a better understanding of the situation with public members.

The military personnel have been deployed to the various checkpoints on the main routes. They will examine public buses and private vans on suspicious movements.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 28 May 2007

I thought they were supposed to adhere to the king's words. Hmmm.

Thaksin and the Thaksin cult always pretended to but never did and never will.

[Plus]

I think the Court ruling day will pass realitively peacefully. No coups, no revolutions.

TRT is yesterday's year's news, no one gives a ###### about them, their active grassroot support is overestimated and the generals will nip it in the bud.

At most there will be another PTV rally and people will forget about in three days.

There is a chance you could be right. All the little things like flags on taxis, and lights in. I guess if you pay them each there is no problem for doing that for a day. In a way it sounds like they are planning for a low turnout. But nevertheless it is wise to be ready for anything and discourage troublemakers.

So looking beyond if the TRT and Democrats go down, who or what will fill the vacuum? There is a lot of subtle suggestions in the news of doom and gloom if you have not noticed. Most I am sure are from the TRT implying that they are the only ones who can save the day.

I haven't noticed any flags on taxis and no one turns on their headlights to save TRT. When last year, during PAD rallies, Surayud (privy councilor at the time) asked people to drive with lights on to show that they are tired of confrontation and that opposing parties need to talk, headlights were everywhere. Relatively everywhere, as at that point I thought there were not too many.

Now it's slow news days, nothing's happening, really, so every little voice gets prominent coverage in the papers, esepecially if it's about doom and gloom.

General public doesn't care, the looming court verdict has no personal issue to it, no emotional involvement unlike Thaksin's trial that held the whole nation in suspense. No one has a personal opinion whether TRT really bribed the parties and or that Democrats didn't play by the rules, too.

But look at today's Nation's front page - seven possible ways the verdict can go, detailed write up on all possible consequences of every improbable outcome, like the parties are dissolved but no executes are punished. Who cares?

The other day Sutthichai Yoon lamented how the media keep on banging the same two headlines in every possible word combination for months: "Will there be another coup?" and "Will Surayud be sacked?"

They just need to fill the pages.

People are tired. They are tired of rhetorics and enthusiasm and revolutions and want to get on with their lives.

I think you're very wrong on this Plus. The general public see this government as bumbling bureaucrats with no real understanding on how to run the economy. Expect to see the taxi headlights in a day or two.

The working class, both urban and rural, miss Thaksin and his populist policies. If TRT are banned there will be widespread discontent for sure, but if the executives are not all banned, expect Somkhit or Somsak to take the helm in a new party.

Personally I would like to see a new party that offers both short and long term policies to the poor, rural and urban, but without the meglomania and hype of Thaksin.

A mixture of the Democrats' pragmatism, experience and TRT resourcefulness.

There's a new poll out today - 75% are agaisnt any rallies or protests after the court verdict, whichever way it goes.

Despite TRT having 14 million members, very few of them feel themselves as stakeholders in the party. Many have prepared themselves already. Many know that protests won't change anything.

I stick to my prediction - nothing big will happen.

[ThaiGoon]

Oh well. (To Clifton's comment)

I think Khun Plus is right though. I don't think anything big will happen. (:fingerscrossed: though.)

Edited May 28, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[Plus]

I would like to see a new party that offers both short and long term policies to the poor, rural and urban, but without the meglomania and hype of Thaksin.

A mixture of the Democrats' pragmatism, experience and TRT resourcefulness.

And who will pay for those policies? The middle class? The business people? The old elites? What you describe is the worst case scenario for the junta and it varied clients. You are talking about a threat to the status quo that even Thaksin couldn't manage- do you honestly believe that this coup was engineered to bring about a more equitable shake for the poor in the country? Why do you think there is the hostility to professional polititians- because they're all crooks? Or because they might actually accomplish something? Against strong government? Against established political parties... I fully support your dream- but I don't think it would find much support among the people who stand to lose under such a scenario- or their hired guns.

I think the junta tacitly supports Democrats for the next government, with selected exTRTs filling up the parlament.

Democrats had all democratically and politically correct policies (at the very top, at least) and they didn't threaten the status quo in any way, it is also wrong to assume that status quo means that poor should stay poor, or assume that people climbing up the ladder inevitably want to destroy the status quo.

The Democrat strategy of creating more wealth at the grassroots is more sensible than redistributing wealth Thaksin style anyway.

[ColPyat]

I think the junta tacitly supports Democrats for the next government, with selected exTRTs filling up the parlament.

Democrats had all democratically and politically correct policies (at the very top, at least) and they didn't threaten the status quo in any way, it is also wrong to assume that status quo means that poor should stay poor, or assume that people climbing up the ladder inevitably want to destroy the status quo.

The Democrat strategy of creating more wealth at the grassroots is more sensible than redistributing wealth Thaksin style anyway.

So, and which strategies and policies by the Democrats would that be, please?

Published anywhere?

Because so far, in both their recent times at at the helm, they have not exactly excelled in creating any wealth at the grass roots outside the South.

And, in terms of democracy, it does not really matter whom the junta prefers or supports, but who will be supported at the pools by the people. But we do know that this does not exactly matter to the junta, and that more than questionable methods will be used by them.

Guided democracy by the military...

[Jai Dee]

PM to witness signing ceremony of Thai-Chinese agreements

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont will witness the signing ceremony of two agreements between Thai and Chinese governments today (May, 28th) in China.

The premier will arrived in China today at 14.10 hrs. local time. He is scheduled to pay a visit to President of the People’s Republic of China Hu Jintao to discuss administrative issues. In the evening, Gen.Surayud will hold bilateral talks with Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao.

The Thai premier will later witness the signing ceremony of two agreements concerning the Thai-Chinese strategic cooperation and the development of educational cooperation between the ministries of education of the two countries.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 28 May 2007

[hammered]

I would like to see a new party that offers both short and long term policies to the poor, rural and urban, but without the meglomania and hype of Thaksin.

A mixture of the Democrats' pragmatism, experience and TRT resourcefulness.

And who will pay for those policies? The middle class? The business people? The old elites? What you describe is the worst case scenario for the junta and it varied clients. You are talking about a threat to the status quo that even Thaksin couldn't manage- do you honestly believe that this coup was engineered to bring about a more equitable shake for the poor in the country? Why do you think there is the hostility to professional polititians- because they're all crooks? Or because they might actually accomplish something? Against strong government? Against established political parties... I fully support your dream- but I don't think it would find much support among the people who stand to lose under such a scenario- or their hired guns.

I think the junta tacitly supports Democrats for the next government, with selected exTRTs filling up the parlament.

Democrats had all democratically and politically correct policies (at the very top, at least) and they didn't threaten the status quo in any way, it is also wrong to assume that status quo means that poor should stay poor, or assume that people climbing up the ladder inevitably want to destroy the status quo.

The Democrat strategy of creating more wealth at the grassroots is more sensible than redistributing wealth Thaksin style anyway.

The military have a history of not exactly seeing eye to eye with the Democrats actually. Even though the Dems are keeping a low profile right now some of their statemetns are not exactly pro-Junta. For example, Chuan believes Thaksin should be allowed to return and Abhisit has criticized attempts to inhibit PTV. Personally I think it far more likely that the Junta would prefer to see a group of the shall we say more maleable ex-TRT guys leading the next government if the Junta could influence the elction outcome.

The Democrats, as I understand it, were during the Thaksin days undergoing a period of change and rebranding aimed at leaving them ready to realistically contest and maybe win an election at the end of this decade or slightly later. As this change was still incomplete when the coup occurred the Dems did not really have a slate of outlined and well known policies or even a self-created image in the way TRT did. It is hard to predict if the coup has helped or hindered the Dems. The modernisers/reformers in the party may feel they have been put on the backfoot while the traditionalists may feel the poilitical conditions will suit them more. If they survive the dissolution it will be an interesting time to see how Thailands oldest party now evolve.

[blaze]

Sonthi is warning of a crisis in May. And Sarpong is warning of a crisis should any future gov't dare to even think about prosecuting those who conducted the coup.

http://bangkokpost.com/News/28May2007_news04.php

Yes- he directed his statements specifically at a revamped TRT- but I expect the Democrats also get the message... (hence Abhisit's worry that there are powerful people out to dislodge him as head of the Democrats).

Whoever forms the next gov't - and Saprong makes this pretty clear- had best be prepared to play ball with the army.

[Plus]

Hammered, sometimes even the govt and the junta don't see eye to eye but out of all politicians the generals would prefer Democrats any given day (except if they set up a proxy party with Somsak/Somkid).

On their own Democrats will not be able to form the government, they don't have enough popular support.

Should they lead the government, I expect them to push for decentralisation of the administration, decentralisation of policy making, decentralisation of the budget, and less grip on local politics - the grassroots should learn how to run their lives themselves.