'Polishing the gun': China, U.S. tensions raise Taiwan conflict fears

By Ben Blanchard and Yew Lun Tian

 

FILE PHOTO: Taiwanese domestically built Indigenous Defense Fighters (IDF) take part in the live-fire, anti-landing Han Kuang military exercise, which simulates an enemy invasion, in Taichung, Taiwan July 16, 2020. REUTERS/Ann Wang

 

TAIPEI/BEIJING (Reuters) - Numerous Chinese and U.S. military exercises, Taiwan missiles tracking Chinese fighters and plummeting China-U.S. ties make for a heady cocktail of tension that is raising fears of conflict touched off by a crisis over Taiwan.

 

In the last three weeks, China has announced four separate exercises along its coast, from the Bohai Gulf in the north to the East and Yellow Seas and South China Sea, along with other exercises it said were aimed at "the current security situation across the Taiwan Strait".

 

Meanwhile Taiwan, claimed by China as its "sacred" territory, said its surface-to-air missiles had tracked approaching Chinese fighters - details Taiwan does not normally give - as U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar was visiting the island this month.

 

Addressing the Chinese exercises, Taiwan's defence ministry said on Tuesday the closer Chinese jets get to the island the "more actively" Taipei would respond, though it would "not escalate conflict" nor "trigger an incident".

 

The United States sent another warship through the Taiwan Strait this month, a few days after a U.S. carrier group conducted an exercise in the disputed South China Sea, and this week China complained a U.S. spy plane had observed Chinese live-fire exercises.

 

Chinese military expert Ni Lexiong, a retired professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said it was very rare and possibly the first time multiple Chinese exercises were taking place at the same time.

 

"By simultaneously conducting drills in the three seas, it means China is testing its ability to fight enemies coming from three directions at the same time - for example from Taiwan, from Japan and from the U.S. from the south," he said.

 

"Historically, frequent drills are a clear predictor of war."

 

'DISMAY AND CONCERN'

 

Taiwan-based security and diplomatic sources say the chances of "firing off a shot while polishing the gun" - a Chinese saying for an accidental encounter setting off a broader conflict - are rising mainly because of increased U.S. and Chinese military activity in the region.

 

"Neither side wants to start a conflict. The fundamentals have not changed much," said a Western diplomat looking into military activities across the Taiwan Strait.

 

"But the frequent activities do increase the chances of an accidental conflict," the diplomat said.

 

China's defence ministry and its Taiwan Affairs Office did not respond to requests for comment, and neither did the Pentagon nor U.S. State Department.

 

China's foreign ministry said in statement sent to Reuters: "We have the determination and capability to stop any activities aimed at separating Taiwan from China".

 

A senior U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that China was becoming more assertive and more aggressive in the region and there was concern its military could miscalculate, leading to unexpected consequences.

 

    "This is an issue that is broader than Taiwan and broader than just the United States," the official said.

 

"I would argue that there are many like-minded countries in the region that are viewing with dismay and increasing concern the trend lines coming out of Beijing."

 

'TO THE LAST SOLDIER'

 

The Trump administration has been taking an escalating array of measures against China in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election, adding to the uncertainty.

 

A hypothetical scenario spelled out in a recent essay by James Winnefeld, a former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Michael Morrell, former acting director of the Central Intelligence Agency, has made the rounds in Taiwan security circles.

 

In their suggested sequence of events, set out in the Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, a disputed U.S. election gives China the opportunity to move on Taiwan while Washington and the world are distracted.

 

In Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen has responded to the tension with pledges to defend the island.

 

She and her government have denounced as scaremongering and kowtowing to Beijing a campaign this month by former president Ma Ying-jeou, who held a landmark meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2015, to warn that Taiwan is courting disaster by needling China and would not last long in a war.

 

Still, Taiwan has been keen to show its teeth.

 

Its defence ministry this month issued two slickly produced videos showing missiles being fired and F-16s in the air to demonstrate their resolve to defend the island.

 

"Dare to fight, and fight to the last soldier," the ministry said in a caption for the latest video, released on Sunday.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-08-26

 

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Let's just have it out now to decide who's gonna be top dog in the Pacific for the rest of the century. I'll put the US and its allies (most of the world) up against the Chinese and her allies, North Korea and Cambodia, any day.

Edited August 26, 20205 yr by Pattaya Spotter
spelling

1 hour ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Let's just have it out now to decide who's gonna be top dog in the Pacific for the rest of the century. I'll put the US and its allies (most of the world) up against the Chinese and her allies, North Korea and Cambodia, any day.

Looks like we are headed that way. China has little hope against the west and allies the world will not stand by if they move on Taiwan.

1 hour ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Let's just have it out now to decide who's gonna be top dog in the Pacific for the rest of the century. I'll put the US and its allies (most of the world) up against the Chinese and her allies, North Korea and Cambodia, any day.

China has the bigger army, but can't help but think that they'd get flattened by the USA.

2 minutes ago, misterjames said:

Looks like we are headed that way. China has little hope against the west and allies the world will not stand by if they move on Taiwan.

Unfortunately under Trump's auspices (nounARCHAIC
plural noun: auspices
a divine or prophetic token) he has p1ssed off many of Americas allies around the world so not so many will be willing to side with him.

 

The island of Taiwan, governed by the Republic of China (ROC), lies about 100 miles (161 kilometers) east of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait.Oct 8, 2015.

 

The island of Taiwan, governed by the Republic of China (ROC), lies about 100 miles (161 kilometers) east of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan also administers a number of smaller islands known as the Kinmen archipelago, or Kinmen County. Great Kinmen Island and its neighbor islets are on the other side of the strait, in a harbor just east of the port city of Xiamen, practically surrounded by the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—in some places barely more than a mile apart.

 

That gives China a very short logistic chain of about 160 km and the USA a very long one of 

 

Distance from United States to Taiwan is 12,261 kilometers.
The air travel (bird fly) shortest distance between United States and Taiwan is 12,261 km= 7,619 miles.

 

That basically means that every litre of fuel, round of ammunition, food rations etc which takes China a couple of hours to deliver might take the USA weeks to deliver assuming that they they have enough ships and crews to man them.

 

Yes it is possible to resupply by air transport but the cost will be horrendous and will involve in-flight refuelling, a large number of close support and distant air defence fighters ( which will also need refuelling).

 

Where are the nearest US friendly country to China? Japan, S Korea, Australia all of which are a fair distance from Taiwan.

 

I see that some of the keyboard warriors are onto this already.

 

7 minutes ago, SteveK said:

China has the bigger army, but can't help but think that they'd get flattened by the USA.

I don't think so because to be flattened by the USA you need boots on the ground, air superiority, naval resources to suppot them and friendly countries close. The friendly countries may be given a choice by China to either support China or remain strictly neutral and out of any confrontation.

32 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Unfortunately under Trump's auspices (nounARCHAIC
plural noun: auspices
a divine or prophetic token) he has p1ssed off many of Americas allies around the world so not so many will be willing to side with him.

 

That gives China a very short logistic chain of about 160 km and the USA a very long one of 

 

Distance from United States to Taiwan is 12,261 kilometers.
The air travel (bird fly) shortest distance between United States and Taiwan is 12,261 km= 7,619 miles.

Wow long reply with some Wikipedia I suspect? so I shortened it. 

 

To answer in short it won't just be USA that joins in it will be the whole of the free world including many countries in the area that China has been provoking like Japan, India, Taiwan, South Korea not forgetting other countries not so far away like Australia.

 

Trump may have annoyed some Americans but China has annoyed the entire world big time and the world will fight along side America to maintain freedom. 

 

Also China has little experience when it comes to war they didn't do too well in the sino-vietnamese war did they?

 

 

Edited August 26, 20205 yr by misterjames

36 minutes ago, billd766 said:

I don't think so because to be flattened by the USA you need boots on the ground, air superiority, naval resources to suppot them and friendly countries close. 

Boots on the ground in 2020? not needed these days and with regard to air superiority China would be dominated easily western air forces are far superior and are highly experienced in warfare. 

 

Also there are plenty friendly countries in the region that China has been annoying for many years India for example, Australia not to mention the allied bases in very close proximity like Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

 

Edited August 26, 20205 yr by misterjames

2 hours ago, misterjames said:

Looks like we are headed that way. China has little hope against the west and allies the world will not stand by if they move on Taiwan.

Don't forget Russia or the fact that Trump has alienated most of what used to be US allies!

Edited August 26, 20205 yr by fangless

2 hours ago, misterjames said:

Boots on the ground in 2020?

Chinese boots can be on the Taiwanese ground long before any opposition or so called allies could interfere.

The so called allies did nothing when Russians again annexed it's neighbours in it's sphere of influence so why would they interfere in China's sphere of influence? 

2 hours ago, misterjames said:

Wow long reply with some Wikipedia I suspect? so I shortened it. 

 

To answer in short it won't just be USA that joins in it will be the whole of the free world including many countries in the area that China has been provoking like Japan, India, Taiwan, South Korea not forgetting other countries not so far away like Australia.

 

Trump may have annoyed some Americans but China has annoyed the entire world big time and the world will fight along side America to maintain freedom. 

 

Also China has little experience when it comes to war they didn't do too well in the sino-vietnamese war did they?

 

 

I think that you are over estimating the free worlds support for the USA, especially under Trump.

 

OTOH the USA has not won any major conflict for decades either. They are still in Afghanistan and Iraq after how many years of warfare.

 

Starting a war is easy. Winning that war isn't easy, but winning the peace is much harder and much more expensive.

 

Just suppose for the sake of arguement China and the USA start a war and the USA wins it. How will it be able to keep the Chinese down and beaten? Will the USA put boots on the ground all over China? Where will it get the manpower to do it as China is a huge country to cover. There are over 1.3 Billion people in China and that was in 2018. China can afford to lose 1 or 2 million people and not even notice them gone.

 

China covers 9.957 million sq/km which is an awfully big area to hide things and people in.

 

The problem I have with gung ho keyboard warriors is that most have never been in the military and have little idea of the reality regarding warfare. In modern warefare logistics play the biggest part. It is no use deciding to invade a country if, when you get there your tanks run out of fuel, amunition or are broken down and the spares were on a ship that was sunk. Or if your aircraft have nowhere to land to refuel and re arm.

1 hour ago, fangless said:

Don't forget Russia or the fact that Trump has alienated most of what used to be US allies!

Don't count on it even Russia has had enough of China:

 

"Recent geopolitical developments signalled in this direction including China’s attempts to undermine Russian influence in the Arctic and Central Asia and its claims in the Russian Far East strongly. Russia had also accused China of copying its defence designs."

 

https://www.lokmarg.com/russia-issues-veiled-threat-to-china-as-relations-sour/

 

They also suspended deliveries of S-400 missiles to China.

 https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/in-another-setback-to-china-russia-suspends-deliveries-of-s-400-missiles-report/story-BjFvo3A1cMlJq4jWRfODhL.html

 

As I said they have annoyed the entire world.

 

Edited August 26, 20205 yr by misterjames

28 minutes ago, fangless said:

Chinese boots can be on the Taiwanese ground long before any opposition or so called allies could interfere.

Oh there will be lots of opposition wait and see what happens when they try that ????

14 minutes ago, billd766 said:

I think that you are over estimating the free worlds support for the USA, especially under Trump.

People support freedom Trump is one man nobody cares who the president is at the time every country can see what a problem China is becoming and will support the free world mark my words China will learn a lesson.

Inflammatory post removed.  Continue making disparaging remarks about other members and you will be suspended.  

 

4 hours ago, misterjames said:

Don't count on it even Russia has had enough of China:

 

"Recent geopolitical developments signalled in this direction including China’s attempts to undermine Russian influence in the Arctic and Central Asia and its claims in the Russian Far East strongly. Russia had also accused China of copying its defence designs."

 

https://www.lokmarg.com/russia-issues-veiled-threat-to-china-as-relations-sour/

 

They also suspended deliveries of S-400 missiles to China.

 https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/in-another-setback-to-china-russia-suspends-deliveries-of-s-400-missiles-report/story-BjFvo3A1cMlJq4jWRfODhL.html

 

As I said they have annoyed the entire world.

 

Ok, maybe they have annoyed the entire world. 

 

Now the key question: who is willing to die for Taiwan?

3 hours ago, candide said:

Ok, maybe they have annoyed the entire world. 

 

Now the key question: who is willing to die for Taiwan?

There is a lot more at stake than Taiwan the nature of China's intent is quite clear. Hong Kong first now Taiwan. Many people do not understand Chinese strategic thinking the CCP needs to stopped before it gets out of hand and it will be stopped if they try to take Taiwan the rest of the world will not stand by and wait for them to turn up on their doorsteps.

8 hours ago, fangless said:

Don't forget Russia or the fact that Trump has alienated most of what used to be US allies!

Yes, it is horrible the warmongers managed to destroy Trump's initiative to work cooperatively with the Russians, by making up a SCAM, which was formulated with anti-Putin Rusians.   We could really use the Russians on our side against China - or at least make it likely they stay neutral in a war.  Were Russia a reasonably close ally, it is much less likely China would be taking these aggressive steps against Taiwan, in the Philippine Sea, etc.

 

Anyone knows China is the only existential threat - should have been isolated and contained like the USSR, starting the week after the fall of the Berlin Wall.  Unfortunately evil people LIKED the CCP's system, so empowered them with Billions in mercantalistic-trade deals. 

 

8 hours ago, fangless said:

...

The so called allies did nothing when Russians again annexed it's neighbours in it's sphere of influence so why would they interfere in China's sphere of influence? 

You mean, Russia held onto Crimea, which has been Russian since Catherine the Great took it from the Ottoman Empire?  Kruschev moves an administrative-boundary within the USSR, and Russia is expected to make Crimea "another country" - to spite signficant military assets there, and their long-term Ukranian ally was just "Coup'd" by Western Intel (carried out by Ambassador Nuland and friends during the games in Russia) and turned into a hostile neighbor? 

 

The only way the West could keep Ukranian elections close enough for the anti-Russian faction to claim victory, was preventing Crimeans voting in them.  It was part of the "plan" for it to revert to Russia, and then for cynical politicians to pretend Russia was "annexing soverign neighbors" - like Hitler or something (they are always using the "Hitler" analogy for propaganda).

 

Russia doesn't want to be invaded again by Europe (Napolean, WWI, WWII) - nor will they tolerate being "regime changed" - to put the same group who abused them for decades under the USSR back in charge. 

 

The ONLY sane policy was to ally with our cultural-ally, Russia, given they are no longer the communist-threat "USSR".  One "evil empire" down - one left to go.

11 hours ago, SteveK said:

China has the bigger army, but can't help but think that they'd get flattened by the USA.

perhaps before,lets assume china wanted to invade taiwan and started planning 2 years ago the west has been mullahered both physically and financially by the corona pandemic which is still ongoing,the west let russia invade ukraine,do you honestly think at this moment in time they,ll want to start ww 3 by starting on china?

32 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

Yes, it is horrible the warmongers managed to destroy Trump's initiative to work cooperatively with the Russians, by making up a SCAM, which was formulated with anti-Putin Rusians.   We could really use the Russians on our side against China - or at least make it likely they stay neutral in a war.  Were Russia a reasonably close ally, it is much less likely China would be taking these aggressive steps against Taiwan, in the Philippine Sea, etc.

 

Anyone knows China is the only existential threat - should have been isolated and contained like the USSR, starting the week after the fall of the Berlin Wall.  Unfortunately evil people LIKED the CCP's system, so empowered them with Billions in mercantalistic-trade deals. 

 

You mean, Russia held onto Crimea, which has been Russian since Catherine the Great took it from the Ottoman Empire?  Kruschev moves an administrative-boundary within the USSR, and Russia is expected to make Crimea "another country" - to spite signficant military assets there, and their long-term Ukranian ally was just "Coup'd" by Western Intel (carried out by Ambassador Nuland and friends during the games in Russia) and turned into a hostile neighbor? 

 

The only way the West could keep Ukranian elections close enough for the anti-Russian faction to claim victory, was preventing Crimeans voting in them.  It was part of the "plan" for it to revert to Russia, and then for cynical politicians to pretend Russia was "annexing soverign neighbors" - like Hitler or something (they are always using the "Hitler" analogy for propaganda).

 

Russia doesn't want to be invaded again by Europe (Napolean, WWI, WWII) - nor will they tolerate being "regime changed" - to put the same group who abused them for decades under the USSR back in charge. 

 

The ONLY sane policy was to ally with our cultural-ally, Russia, given they are no longer the communist-threat "USSR".  One "evil empire" down - one left to go.

russia will do what it did in ww2,sit back and watch Britain and the nazis destroy each other it was only when hitler invaded russia they became involved,this time they,ll sit back and watch 2 of its biggest enemies destroy themselves......there may be trouble ahead.

XI isn’t doing <deleted>. They are playing the long game plus they know they will lose. XI hasn’t got an upcoming election in Nov and never will. He has many years with the CCP to groom his successor.

4 minutes ago, kingdong said:

russia will do what it did in ww2,sit back and watch Britain and the nazis destroy each other it was only when hitler invaded russia they became involved,this time they,ll sit back and watch 2 of its biggest enemies destroy themselves......there may be trouble ahead.

In this context, it is important to recognize who was controlling Russia at different points in time.  WWI - The Czar, married into the British royal-family.  WWII - Bolsheviks (who knew the "non-agression pact" was temporary / prep-time).  Now, Russian-nationalists.  The Czar and Nationalists were/are bitter-enemies of the Bolsheviks - why the Western MSM demonizes Russia, today.

1 hour ago, misterjames said:

There is a lot more at stake than Taiwan the nature of China's intent is quite clear. Hong Kong first now Taiwan. Many people do not understand Chinese strategic thinking the CCP needs to stopped before it gets out of hand and it will be stopped if they try to take Taiwan the rest of the world will not stand by and wait for them to turn up on their doorsteps.

the world will not stand by,hope you didn,t include the " european army "in your statement.

@kingdong - you reacted "confused"?  Are you of the opinion that who controls Russia has been an unbroken continuum?  If so, I would recommend reading Solzhenitsyn.

4 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

@kingdong - you reacted "confused"?  Are you of the opinion that who controls Russia has been an unbroken continuum?  If so, I would recommend reading Solzhenitsyn.

why are you getting your knickers in a twist?had to look up continuum in my dictionary,just remember if it wasn,t for mere mortals like myself (who occasionally get confused ) you wouldn,t be such a legend,was talking generally about a subject,i didn,t expect a spanish inquisition.

13 hours ago, billd766 said:

That gives China a very short logistic chain of about 160 km and the USA a very long one of 

 

Distance from United States to Taiwan is 12,261 kilometers.
The air travel (bird fly) shortest distance between United States and Taiwan is 12,261 km= 7,619 miles.

Have you forgotten Okinawa, Guam?

6 hours ago, candide said:

Ok, maybe they have annoyed the entire world. 

 

Now the key question: who is willing to die for Taiwan?

Probably the most pertinent question is whether the American public will want their sons to die for Taiwan. Then there is the question mark on whether the US government will review its outdated Taiwan Relation Act to allow direct intervention and even place troops in Taiwan. The better approach is diplomacy and that include China's restrain to take Taiwan by force. It is costly in terms of human lives and international image. There are more downsides to China than just settle old scores than upsides.  

4 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Probably the most pertinent question is whether the American public will want their sons to die for Taiwan. Then there is the question mark on whether the US government will review its outdated Taiwan Relation Act to allow direct intervention and even place troops in Taiwan. The better approach is diplomacy and that include China's restrain to take Taiwan by force. It is costly in terms of human lives and international image. There are more downsides to China than just settle old scores than upsides.  

Did they want them to die for those with "interests" in the Middle-East?  The decision will be made by the usual-suspects, and the consent "manufactured" to suit, as it always is (something Noam Chompsky got right).  If something needs to be threatened or blown-up with Americans dying, to "shape public opinion," ("Remember the Maine" / "Gulf of Tonkin", etc), it will.

7 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Probably the most pertinent question is whether the American public will want their sons to die for Taiwan. Then there is the question mark on whether the US government will review its outdated Taiwan Relation Act to allow direct intervention and even place troops in Taiwan. The better approach is diplomacy and that include China's restrain to take Taiwan by force. It is costly in terms of human lives and international image. There are more downsides to China than just settle old scores than upsides.  

China are now on the charm offensive. The wolf warrior diplomacy didn't work (who'd have thunk trying to bully countries with cultures who don't like bullies would have been a bad idea?)

 

China is going nowhere near Taiwan. They have more than enough problems at home and the party are turning on Xi. Wanna hurt a soulless regime who lead through fear? Hit them in the pocket. Genocidal maniacs. 

16 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Let's just have it out now to decide who's gonna be top dog in the Pacific for the rest of the century. I'll put the US and its allies (most of the world) up against the Chinese and her allies, North Korea and Cambodia, any day.

Well in one respect I agree with you but then again that's easy for me to say 'cause I won't be fighting.