Thailand Has Excellent COVID-19 Screening System

[richard_smith237]

7 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Of course...who else would be supplying them with Covid data from Thailand...it's the same for their data from all countries.

 

Agreed - the WHO and other Reporting databases such as Johns Hopkins University simply use the data provided to them by the WHO representatives in each respective country, each provided with data by the relevant government body. 

 

Some government bodies are obviously more reliable than others. For example, would you trust information provided by the democratic federal government of Switzerland or the self proclaimed democracy of a military government which took power through military coup, or perhaps the federal presidential republic of Venezuela ????

 

 

The reality is data from ’some’ governments is far more reliable than from others. Some governments have an agenda, others want to control information, other are unable to collect accurate information and others somehow manage to distort the date with flawed instructions on collect (i.e. died with not because of Covid-19 etc). 

 

 

Thus: Trust Thailands Covid-19 numbers? .... I’d certainly give thought and question the data presented by any official body before blindly accepting the results as unadulterated fact. 

 

 

 

[Flying Saucage]

30 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

Well BBC gives Thai excess deaths for March as 2,400. Doesn't include those from Feb or Jan. Starting in April the stats go down the normal after the emergency decree and lockdown. So per usual with most everything Covid related there are sources supporting both sides.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046

The graph of Thailand in the NYT link seem to stop somewhere around March. No trustable data available anymore from official Thai sources? The BBC article was about mid of March till mid of May, however. It stated 2400 excess deaths. 

 

But be aware that due to the lockdown in Thailand between mid of March and mid of May, around 40 to 50 people less than usual died in traffic accidents per day, for around 60 days. So, the excess deaths should be 2400 to 3000 lower than usual over these 60 days, but they were 2400 higher indeed! So, it seems to be reasonable to assume that the deaths rate of Covid during these 60 days alone was around 5000 in Thailand. Or does anyone remember a magnitude 7 earthquake in that time as an alternative cause of that? So, it's quite clear I think.

 

But nevertheless, with 5000 deaths during this time, 76 per million people, Thailand still did perform quite well compared to other countries. 

 

Edited August 29, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[vinny41]

43 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

To be honest - I don’t think the ASQ hotels were a rip off. 

 

I paid 45,000 baht for 15 days

- Private transport from Airport (1000 baht)

- includes 2 Covid-19 tests (6000 baht each)

- 3 meals per day (±600 baht per day outsourced to a local bakery)

 

 

thus 33,000 baht for the hotel 

 

Thats 2200 Baht per night for a hotel which last year cost 2000 baht per night (booking.com room only).

2200 per night includes 3 meals (±600 baht per day outsourced to a local bakery), thus 1600 baht per night. 

 

1540 per night doesn’t seem quite so crazy.

 

-------

 

That said money is obviously funnelled in a direction whereby it would not otherwise be funnelled - hotels would otherwise be empty and the hospitals are making some money on the 12,000 baht of Covid-19 test.

 

But, I don’t see the quarantine requirement as having been instigated as a money spinner / money making opportunity. I think it can be taken at face value - its just a requirement for people to be quarantined. 

 

 

 

 

 

Also included is nurse on standby 24x7

for all the people that suggest quarantine at home

Private transport from BKK Airport to Issan or somewhere  and return to BKK airport cost unknown

Providing Nurse and transport for 2 Covid-19 tests cost unknown

Provide 3 Nurses on 24/7 standby for 14 days  each nurse 8 hour shift and transport cost unknown

All these costs will be substantially higher as they would be providing such services for a single person

 

 

 

[Flying Saucage]

15 hours ago, SteveK said:

Yinn wake up. If you think that Thailand has used its superior intellect, organisational abilities, openness and sheer brainpower to "control" this virus then you need to go back to school. They either aren't testing, aren't reporting, or are *severely* suppressing the numbers. Probably all of the above. I don't believe any of the Thai numbers.

 

Dishonesty is a way of life here. 

 

Frankly it's amazing that western countries believe the stupid figures put out by Thailand about coronavirus.

Couldn't agree more Steve. That sums it up very well.

[sungod]

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Thats a rather dumbed down over simplification and fails to recognise the spectrum of opinions while attempting to pigeon-hole expats into two simplified categories; either ‘believe the figures and love Thailand' or 'question the figures and hate Thailand’ 

 

The questioning of the official Covid-19 figures has little to do with ‘not accepting Thailand is good at something’ and more to do with applying some critical thought to the numbers when recognising that Thailand is a statistical outlier. 

 

Given the published figures I too am cynical of Thailands Covid-19 numbers. 

 

This has very little to do with the ‘rest of Thailand’ or whether or not Thailand is an enjoyable place to live.

 

 

 

Agreed there, nice to know you are not one of the forum's habitual moaners who the post was directed at.

 

That said, today we have low numbers and life is normal. Tomorrow we may test everyone, have a huge increase of numbers and the country will go into a lockdown it doesn't obviously need, or will it still be normal?

 

If the numbers are not correct, what effect does it have on us, maybe they are managing the crisis (and showing we can live with it) better than other countries are managing the virus.

[Flying Saucage]

15 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Agreed - the WHO and other Reporting databases such as Johns Hopkins University simply use the data provided to them by the WHO representatives in each respective country, each provided with data by the relevant government body. 

 

Some government bodies are obviously more reliable than others. For example, would you trust information provided by the democratic federal government of Switzerland or the self proclaimed democracy of a military government which took power through military coup, or perhaps the federal presidential republic of Venezuela ????

 

 

The reality is data from ’some’ governments is far more reliable than from others. Some governments have an agenda, others want to control information, other are unable to collect accurate information and others somehow manage to distort the date with flawed instructions on collect (i.e. died with not because of Covid-19 etc). 

 

 

Thus: Trust Thailands Covid-19 numbers? .... I’d certainly give thought and question the data presented by any official body before blindly accepting the results as unadulterated fact. 

 

 

 

So true Richard! 

 

The rule of a dictatorships never has legitimacy. So, these governments always seek to secure their rule by defining enemies from in- or outside, and by creating fear and panic, in order to present themselves as the only ones capable to solve these problems and to safe the nation.

 

Covid is so convenient to create panic and paranoia among the populace, and to blame foreigners as "enemies" on beeing the cause of the problem. This dumb strategy works only, if the official numbers are manipulated down to zero, of course. 

 

For me it is amazing to see how even smart, young and educated Thais who oppose this ever lying government, and who know that it lies literally always, fell into this trap about the official Covid numbers. Then, their toxic patriotism wins over their intelligence and their common sense. Interesting to see that from a meta-perspective, indeed. 

[321 BOOM]

3 hours ago, Yinn said:

 

 

No use try tell the conspiracy loons.

 

france start to control now. Because they copy thailand success. Stay home, wear mask, social distance, wash hand, temperature test, etc etc. Same UK now. 

 

It take long long time them listen. The country with the biggest problem have loon leader. Think themself tough guys, but stupid.

 

Thailand listen to doctor, not the conspiracy loons. 

 

The three loons below. Two get coronavirus themself! 

 

 

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/07/11/bolsonaro-coronavirus-video-timeline/

 

 

 

If want success with covid, listen to doctor, not conspiracy loon. Braindead.

 

Listen to doctor, LOL. Especially listen to Thai Doctor.. cry me a river.

 

Maybe we should listen also to the lunatic Thai doctor who said last week in the media that a vaccine might be useless because the virus mutates ? He is actually correct because this is what a Virus is doing. But for this to know I not need a Thai doctor, this you learn in Europe in school, subject Biology, secondary.

 

But, hey, its up to you, if you like to listen to your doctors who advise on not leaving in tourists for the next six month.

 

I don't care, the Thai economy is basically down. The 'we travel together campaign' a complete failure etc. etc. This means I get cheaper housing, cheaper car rental, massive discounts on food delivery etc. etc. . Discounts are up to 50-70 percent on Phuket now... finally prices get reasonable. 

 

Please go ahead with that nonsense, tank your economy. I will take advantage of that and when - if it should - it goes back to normal and regular flights become available I simply will leave LOS and all your Thai wisdom to a better place, to a place where you not need to wear masks for example, which I - by the way - not did one time in LOS so far.... and hey I am still alive.

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

48 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Agreed - the WHO and other Reporting databases such as Johns Hopkins University simply use the data provided to them by the WHO representatives in each respective country, each provided with data by the relevant government body. 

 

Some government bodies are obviously more reliable than others. For example, would you trust information provided by the democratic federal government of Switzerland or the self proclaimed democracy of a military government which took power through military coup, or perhaps the federal presidential republic of Venezuela ????

 

 

The reality is data from ’some’ governments is far more reliable than from others. Some governments have an agenda, others want to control information, other are unable to collect accurate information and others somehow manage to distort the date with flawed instructions on collect (i.e. died with not because of Covid-19 etc). 

 

 

Thus: Trust Thailands Covid-19 numbers? .... I’d certainly give thought and question the data presented by any official body before blindly accepting the results as unadulterated fact. 

 

 

 

I don't blindly accept them...and said the figures could be 2-3x official numbers. I do accept the evidence of my own eyes, however. Do you have any real evidence the numbers aren't what the Thai government has said?

[DrTuner]

8 hours ago, cmarshall said:

 No one I know in Thailand knows anyone who has been infected with Covid, much less anyone who died of it. 

Since most were likely elderly or otherwise infirm, you'd have to be buddies with grannies in Isaan to know a few. They drop like flies every day anyway.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, Flying Saucage said:

The graph of Thailand in the NYT link seem to stop somewhere around March.

 

Yes, and excess deaths started around November 2019. All in all something like 6-7.5k excess. It stopped in April when the lockdown was put in place and went under average, as one would guess when mobility is drastically reduced. I did my own analysis of the NYT numbers, which start from 2015:

 

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/blob/master/excess-deaths/deaths.csv

 

The indicators point to the virus having spread here in late 2019, which makes sense as Thailand was one of the main tourist destinations from China. Nobody noticed until media made it look like ebola on steroids.

Edited August 29, 2020 by DrTuner

[from the home of CC]

17 hours ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

Here we go again the same rubbish again

but doing sooooo much better than your country lol..

[Flying Saucage]

8 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Yes, and excess deaths started around November 2019. All in all something like 6-7.5k excess. It stopped in April when the lockdown was put in place and went under average, as one would guess when mobility is drastically reduced. I did my own analysis of the NYT numbers, which start from 2015:

 

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/blob/master/excess-deaths/deaths.csv

 

The indicators point to the virus having spread here in late 2019, which makes sense as Thailand was one of the main tourist destinations from China. Nobody noticed until media made it look like ebola on steroids.

Interesting!

 

So my evaluation based on BBC is around 5000 from mid of March till mid of May, and yours based on NYT is 6-7.5 totally, starting in November already. Sounds consistent and logic. Both sources at this time still relied on Thai official numbers, as these still were not censored then.

 

Another hint is the high number of pneumonia deaths in Thailand during that time, while they hardly tested anyone, especially not the people who had passed away already.

 

Also I remember around February there was an official order that all information had to be channeled through one governmental office in Bangkok. This is when the censoring finally started, I think. And this was the time when negligence in reporting and low testing eventually was replaced by intenionality.

[DrTuner]

1 minute ago, Flying Saucage said:

IAlso I remember around February there was an official order that all information had to be channeled through one governmental office in Bangkok. This is when the censoring finally started, I think. And this was the time when negligence in reporting and low testing eventually was replaced by intenionality.

I was very vocal about MoPH's coverup on this forum from January until May, at least. This is one of their all time hits:

 

It's a sordid tale of trying to cover up the very inadequate testing capacity.

[Flying Saucage]

29 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I was very vocal about MoPH's coverup on this forum from January until May, at least. This is one of their all time hits:

 

It's a sordid tale of trying to cover up the very inadequate testing capacity.

Yes! And do you remember the case of the male Thai celebrity who attended the Lumpini boxing event, and who informed the public a few days later that he was tested positive and was infected on this event? He was threatened to be sued by computer crime law and defamation law.

 

And there was also this case in March, of a Thai tested positive, in which the authorities stated that he was infected in Hongkong. The Hongkong authorities were very good in fighting the virus and tracing the people at the same time. They were alerted and immediately asked the Thai authorities to provide more info, to be able to track the people who had contact with this guy. The Thai authorities never replied. Was quite embarassing for them. 

 

That's why the daily info on Thais tested positive after returning home from abroad should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

Edited August 29, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[josephbloggs]

6 hours ago, khunjeff said:

 

More than 95% of travelers arriving from overseas are Thais, who do not require Covid tests before flying - they only need a meaningless "fit to fly" certificate, which many doctors will give without an in-person examination. 

Fit to fly means they can return here and then go straight into quarantine.  During quarantine everyone - Thais and foreigners - have two Covid tests.  One on the 5th day, one on the 13th day.

So it is pretty comprehensive and much stricter than most countries.  Sorry.

[josephbloggs]

4 hours ago, hotchilli said:

If flyers have to have "fit to fly certificates" and are tested before boarding, why are so many found to be infected when they enter Thailand?

Because it has an incubation period.  Not rocket science.  That's why during quarantine everyone is tested twice - on the 5th day and on the 13th day.

[josephbloggs]

3 hours ago, possum1931 said:

I think the unelected "PM" and his "government" will keep the 14 day quarantine as long as they can get away with it, again it is mostly down to money, about double the price for hotels and meals, plus the extras for testing etc. How many pockets are being filled in that lot for the connected?

For a conspiracy theory this is one of the dumbest I have ever heard.  For a start, the price includes transfers to your hotel, three meals a day, medical services (checks twice a day) and two Covid tests.  It's actually not that expensive when you break it down.

Now, to your theory - don't you think these mystery "connected people" who are making all this money from quarantine, don't you think they would make a Hell of a lot more if they just opened the country and had the hotels full of tourists and 80/90% occupancy?   

[SteveK]

Laughable that Yinn believes that the numbers are low because of "diligence"!

 

 

[Suua]

7 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

There are 1318 hospitals in Thailand. 

 

Thailands death rate is 7.068 per 1000 of population. Approx 500,000 people die each year anyway. 

IF there were 20,000 or even 50,000 additional deaths, would it be noticed when decided amongst all the hospitals ???

 

Of course, not everyone dies - for arguments sake, say 50% of people die in a hospital. Thats 250,000 across 1600 hospitals: 

 

Would an extra 3 deaths per month be noticeable ????

 

 

Looking at the numbers vs the argument that if there were more covid-19 it would be noticeable, I don’t think it would. The vast majority of cases are asymptomatic anyway and thus not noticeable if there is little testing and spread amongst the hospitals an additional handful of deaths per month is also not really notable. 

 

Of course there are flaws in the above logic with regards to population clusters etc, however the point is made to highlight the relatively small numbers and the fact that it would be easy not to notice higher numbers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spot on!!!! Also given the fact that the old age population here is significantly lower to more developed parts of the world. Old age care homes are simply non existent....I would love to have access to country wide hospital data with regards to deaths associated to pneumonia.

[NoshowJones]

43 minutes ago, josephbloggs said:

For a conspiracy theory this is one of the dumbest I have ever heard.  For a start, the price includes transfers to your hotel, three meals a day, medical services (checks twice a day) and two Covid tests.  It's actually not that expensive when you break it down.

Now, to your theory - don't you think these mystery "connected people" who are making all this money from quarantine, don't you think they would make a Hell of a lot more if they just opened the country and had the hotels full of tourists and 80/90% occupancy?   

it is not dumb pal, and it is very expensive.

[Suua]

1 hour ago, Flying Saucage said:

Yes! And do you remember the case of the male Thai celebrity who attended the Lumpini boxing event, and who informed the public a few days later that he was tested positive and was infected on this event? He was threatened to be sued by computer crime law and defamation law.

 

And there was also this case in March, of a Thai tested positive, in which the authorities stated that he was infected in Hongkong. The Hongkong authorities were very good in fighting the virus and tracing the people at the same time. They were alerted and immediately asked the Thai authorities to provide more info, to be able to track the people who had contact with this guy. The Thai authorities never replied. Was quite embarassing for them. 

 

That's why the daily info on Thais tested positive after returning home from abroad should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

Do you also remember the Scottish pilot that the Vietnamese hospital cured after several weeks. He had been in Bangkok a week before he was diagnosed....As someone else pointed out, remember we live in 'lieland'

[Oliver Holzerfilled]

10 hours ago, cmarshall said:

I think the Thai numbers must be substantially correct.  If the hospitals were clogged with Covid patients we would know.  No one I know in Thailand knows anyone who has been infected with Covid, much less anyone who died of it.  We also know now that wearing masks gives a substantial benefit in restricting the spread of the virus and the Thais have been wearing masks religiously since the outbreak.

 

For some of the expats here their most deeply held conviction is of the utter inferiority of everything Thai, especially compared to the West.  In fact, the public health system in Thailand is quite good.  Do you think the S. Koreans, Taiwanese, Vietnamese, New Zealanders, Greeks and others are all lying?

Virtually no expats here have suggested Bangkok is on the level of cesspools such as New York City and Los Angeles.  It is odd you left two of Thailand's closest neighbors who've done much better than Thailand, Cambodia and Laos, off your list of example countries.  Zero deaths is a monumental achievement, better than any of the countries you listed.   If Laos and Cambodia hospitals were clogged with covid patients it would be very hard to hide so their numbers must be substantially correct.  Such a glaring omission of Laos and Cambodia from your list of only advanced countries leads one to think you may be one of those expats with a deeply held conviction some 3rd world countries are inferior or lying.

[vangrop]

reductio ad absurdum:

 

- microcospic testing

- fake reporting

- no post mortem testing (cremation of deads)

- the vectors are the farangs (not the thais coming back from abroad)

- etc

But despite this, the country is one of the best performing in the war against covid19. Paradoxicaly they still apply one of the strenghts measures worldwide. 

Any logic here? Oeps I forgot, me stupid dirty farang (ref. Anutin) ignores that logic does not exists in LOS.

 

[joecoolfrog]

19 hours ago, Yinn said:

This country control covid already. 

Yep Thailand is so in control of this crisis lol. Absolutely no idea of the original infection or death rate ( because they barely tested anybody), terrified of any large scale new wave ( because the health service cant cope) and no pro active plan to kick start the economy and try to save the millions of jobs on the line.

Thailand is in huge trouble !

[josephbloggs]

38 minutes ago, possum1931 said:

it is not dumb pal, and it is very expensive.

Thanks for that great well reasoned come back.

[stouricks]

On 8/28/2020 at 6:19 PM, snoop1130 said:

Mr Anutin said the screening system included COVID-19 tests before travelers board their planes and after they land

In case they catch it ON THE PLANE !

[321 BOOM]

39 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

Yep Thailand is so in control of this crisis lol. Absolutely no idea of the original infection or death rate ( because they barely tested anybody), terrified of any large scale new wave ( because the health service cant cope) and no pro active plan to kick start the economy and try to save the millions of jobs on the line.

Thailand is in huge trouble !

Correct... but they will deny it to the very end for face saving purposes and than....oh Buddha...LOL.

[Flying Saucage]

2 hours ago, Suua said:

Do you also remember the Scottish pilot that the Vietnamese hospital cured after several weeks. He had been in Bangkok a week before he was diagnosed....As someone else pointed out, remember we live in 'lieland'

Interesting! I know the case about this pilot of Vietnam Airlines, but I didn't know that he visited Bangkok a week before the diagnosis. There is no proof, of course, that he was infected in Thailand. But it is an interesting coincidence. Can be, good possible. This is a very sad and serious case of Covid. He almost died, and will have problems for the rest of his life.

 

Do you remember when it was? I heard that the Vietnam was among the first countries, if not the first at all, which closed the borders for tourists from Wuhan, while the Thai government even end of February still invited, welcomed and embraced tourists from there. 

[Suua]

1 hour ago, Flying Saucage said:

Interesting! I know the case about this pilot of Vietnam Airlines, but I didn't know that he visited Bangkok a week before the diagnosis. There is no proof, of course, that he was infected in Thailand. But it is an interesting coincidence. Can be, good possible. This is a very sad and serious case of Covid. He almost died, and will have problems for the rest of his life.

 

Do you remember when it was? I heard that the Vietnam was among the first countries, if not the first at all, which closed the borders for tourists from Wuhan, while the Thai government even end of February still invited, welcomed and embraced tourists from there. 

Here you go......

 

"When he first fell ill at an expat bar, which was the site of southern Vietnam's biggest outbreak, his case caused controversy as there was speculation he was the source of the outbreak".

"There seemed to be a desire to pin it on me coming from abroad, as I did a visa run to Bangkok a week earlier," he told the BBC in June, when he was still in Vietnam.

"I was the first person to put my hands up and say: 'Look I don't feel well'. It was inevitable I would be blamed."

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-53544345

 

Comes at the end of the article.....

 

[nong38]

But they can only do 500 a day right? The tourism industry must be doing cart wheels down the road.