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Pattaya: Grim picture for future of resort as post pandemic optimism dries up


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3 hours ago, Raphus said:

Thailand is doomed

i shall keep saying it every day when I see these stories.

i have said it since June. But now it is really starting to show.

Did you just wake up from a long, deep sleep? The tourism industry has been dead all over the world since March. Thailand is going to do a lot better than a lot of Western Nations that have been working their printing presses overtime. Thailand does not die without tourists.   

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Most people with loans don't own anything for the banks to take. IMHO Banks are just as likely to fail as any other business. I really don't expect tourism to be profitable again in the near

If I was the Economics or Finance Minister of Thailand I would have trouble sleeping at night.   In my mind would be graphs of the rise in debt---corporate and household---over the last ten

Indentured servitude is on its way . You are most likely right that banks are going to fail but I’m sure there are some financial institutes that are going to prosper . I said it 6 months ago that the

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Thai people need to decide how scared they are of Covid.  Why can't they allow O-A visa holders to come back in if they were stuck outside.  Many with relationships who are younger would want to return if a visa similar to tourist visa would be allowed.  They need to crank up the ASQs and testing.

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On 9/8/2020 at 10:17 AM, Walker88 said:

If I was the Economics or Finance Minister of Thailand I would have trouble sleeping at night.

 

In my mind would be graphs of the rise in debt---corporate and household---over the last ten years, bank exposure, and the likelihood that asset prices (otherwise known as collateral for all those bank loans) are under pressure.

 

In Bangkok one can see billboards advertising 50% price cuts on under-construction condos by major developers. Not good. Real estate prices are set on the margin, which means prices are set by the weakest hands, which is to say those with the most leverage. Those with less leverage (if these aren't unicorns) are still going to feel it, because real estate is a wasting asset. Even if one is debt free, there are still property taxes and maintenance costs, so a building with no tenant or one in arrears still has a cash outflow.

 

Leveraged owners with no tenants (businesses gone bust) will be turning the keys over to banks, and banks are not going to want to own a huge portfolio of real estate. They will want to sell it.

 

The govt had introduced debt amnesty, but that has expired. The debt didn't go away, of course, but borrowers were allowed to skip payments and banks did not have to account for the lack of incoming debt servicing. Yesterday an official said it might be time to put this debt moratorium back on, which is to say, "Let's kick the can down the road again, because there is no other way to deal with it".

 

I have seen some commentary that 'this isn't as bad as 1997'. I question that, as it is not only an entirely different problem, it is also worldwide, not just regional like 1997. Yes, there are likely to be bargains galore in property, but timing will be critical. Buying something down 50% looks good until its price is down 75%.

 

Thailand does have a decent pile of foreign reserves. I suspect it is going to have to go to that well, and soon, if it insists on maintaining the same level of vigilance against the virus by keeping the borders closed. Absent some return to normalcy, the banking system's capital cushion is going to be under pressure in the next few months as more businesses fail and leveraged borrowers---even homeowners who put zero down on that new car---feel the pain of economic decline. Banks are increasingly likely to need some sort of bailout. Accounting rules can be changed, by mathematics is the Sword of Damocles that cannot be denied.

 

This article is about Pattaya, because the pain hits it first and hardest owing to its dependence on foreign tourism. The wider Thai economy is hardly any more immune to Covid-driven decline. Some truly difficult decisions are coming.

Good article well written and I totally agree with your thoughts. My fear is that as I read the other day people will just give up and resort to crime and violence as they believe there is no other way. My long term goals re my lady and Thailand are changing due to the likely moral and economic collapse. She runs a small business and is now fearful for her own safety.

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3 hours ago, SiSePuede419 said:

Post pandemic?

 

Only after Donald J. Trump is carried out of the White House.

 

Either in handcuffs or a pinewood box.

 

And even then it'll take months to comeback. 👈

Decades

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17 hours ago, overherebc said:

People don't believe me when I say the reason I never had or wanted kids, ex was of the same mind, because I really didn't want to bring kids into this world and I'm talking about 40+ years ago. The mess this world is in now has, for me anyway, proved I'm right.

Over populated, over polluted and heading for deep doo-doo in a hand cart. All countries in the same cart.

I wonder what my parents were thinking conceiving my two sisters and two brothers during WW2 while Hitler rained down his bombs on Britain. Life goes on believe me.

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6 hours ago, DrTuner said:

What I'm really wondering about is where is JSixPack? Did the Protector of Pattaya leave this realm?

Changed his title....master of all he owned,and all the other properties he didn't own

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20 hours ago, chrisandsu said:

A lot of people’s life savings are going up in smoke . It’s almost like the banks are waiting to take property and goods and will only be too happy to reset everybody to zero so they can come back to the banks and get even more debt to start up again. None of this makes any sense !

It's going to be the same the world over, not just Pattaya..

they and others have made a good killing over the last decades, things are different now.

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20 hours ago, Oldie said:

The malls are still open. You also can sit on the beach. Is there anything else that motivates you to come here? 

A lot of farangs were motivated to go to Pattaya because of the abundance of young, accommodating ladies. Are they still about, or have they returned to their villages?

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11 hours ago, rexall said:

Why on earth would an owner do that unless he expected that he could find a new, full-paying tenant, or if he  had some other plans for the property?  Makes no sense.

He himself is desperate to make more money. They have a strange attitude these locals, quite prepared to earn nothing rather than reduce prices sometimes.

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22 hours ago, chrisandsu said:

A lot of people’s life savings are going up in smoke . It’s almost like the banks are waiting to take property and goods and will only be too happy to reset everybody to zero so they can come back to the banks and get even more debt to start up again. None of this makes any sense !

Wasn't that the PLAN all along?

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1 hour ago, Titan1962 said:

Pattaya,Phuket,Bangkok,Chiang Mai and many more tourist locations need the government to look really hard at the situation in hand and the road forward. This pandemic has proved that these places cannot survive without international tourists. Maybe it’s time for the government to take a good hard look at their policies towards retirement and other long term visa holders. Why not revisit the laws on retirement visas,Thailand is a beautiful country,so much to see and do. I see a lot of countries struggling with Covid and all are having the same issues as Thailand. Shops closed,house prices falling,governments throwing heaps of money at the situation with no real end in sight. Thailand needs to think outside of the so called box and look for other options,( many are needed ). But one could be making it easier for retired people or couples to live here. A lot could be done to allow this to happen.

Do away with the 90 day reporting,once the retirement visa is issued. Need only to report if your permanent address has changed. Increase the duration of the retirement visa to 5 years after 5 years of living here. Reduce the monthly income requirements to obtain that visa due to COVID affecting people’s retirement income. Do away with dual pricing and definitely bring in that residency card or use the pink Thai ID card to allow people that live here full time a way to get out of the dual pricing scam. I think many people from all parts of the globe will be struggling with the cost of living in their home countries,during and after this COVID pandemic. Many will be looking for a cheaper and better way of life with what they have left. Thailand should seize the opportunity and make it easier and welcome these people. 
Most retirees just want to enjoy their remaining days,not all are interested in the girly bars and sitting in the bar all day pussy watching. (I did say not all). Thailand could become a destination that retirees want  to come too if it was obtainable and more friendly towards them. It would not fix the situation but it would surely help having Many more like us renting,buying property,even spending that cash at Makro,Tesco,local markets and restaurants. We as retirees might not spend as much as tourists in a week or two,but we do spend every day,every week every month continuously year in year out. That is sustainable and helps the economy grow. The other thing Thai people don’t seem to understand,that we actually take nothing from Thailand. We don’t take jobs from them,we don’t put a strain on their social security system,we don’t come here to cause trouble. We come here to spend our retirement money and try to enjoy the life we have left. 
The world has a huge ageing population,and Thailand should be taking advantage of this opportunity. 
Anyway had my rant for the day,feel a bit better now. 

What about the free beer?

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7 hours ago, Eddy Ozark said:

The real estate in Pattaya and Jomtien will soon be almost worthless unless the Covid situation clears soon. Think of the huge numbers of people who invested their savings in condos and smaller businesses. For years and decades such investment was considered relatively secure. The banks and financial systems are maybe

ok for the moment, but many loans will turn from good to bad. Then the banks could collapse unless bailed out by government. However, such bailouts are usually done by ways of loans from the IMF, which may not be readily available right now. Pattaya has most likely seen the last of its golden years. 

FINALLY! Someone took off the rose-tinted glasses and predicted the certain death of Pattaya. You've been warned. And now, armed with that critical information, you're going to . . . er . . . .

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2 minutes ago, BigStar said:

FINALLY! Someone took off the rose-tinted glasses and predicted the certain death of Pattaya. You've been warned. And now, armed with that critical information, you're going to . . . er . . . .

The only discrepancy I see is that Thailand has very very large reserves, unlike most Western countries who simply carry debt. Thailand will be okay... Pattaya another matter as we all see what it is based on. But does than not also apply tp Phuket?

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7 hours ago, GAZZPA said:

No, sorry, I was mainly working with Thai's. The Thai people have been suffering a long time. My business has nothing to do with tourism, i don't own a bar or anything like that. Business is bad in Pattaya, less tourism means many people have less money which affects their spending power on other things, you are working on your observations of terminal 21 and such but remember these things are signed off a decade before they actually happen. Pattaya is suffering, I mean no offence but either you are mistaken or in denial. I was doing some business with a builders merchant in Pattaya, a very big one, they told me very openly business was the worst they had seen it in over 10 years. I have quite a few examples of different businesses that are not directly targeted at tourists who are having a terrible time, one a very wealthy Thai factory owner who sold to businesses in Pattaya. Pattaya is not doing well.

    No, of course, Pattaya is not doing well now and yes business is the worst it's been in 10 years.  But, it was doing very well pre-covid.  As I said, some areas and some businesses--both Thai and foreign--were not doing well pre-covid but that is normal for big cities everywhere--there are always businesses closing and others opening.  If you get fewer of one type of tourist--western--and many, many more of another type of tourist--Asian--supply and demand will sort out how many businesses you need to cater to both groups.  Some businesses will close, replaced by others. 

     Your builders merchant tells you business is not good.  I'll counter your example by asking if the building business was so bad, why did Home Pro open a second store?  Why did Homeworks spend money in Pattaya to do a makeover into Baan and Beyond?  Why did Chic Republic open a Pattaya branch?  Why did Boonthavorn do a big remodel and expansion on its upper level?  These are all built, concrete examples, and not one guy's opinion on things.  Just as an aside, if things are so bad, Home Pro could shutter one store and just keep the other store open to serve Pattaya.  Even with covid raging, they so far haven't done so.  

     You say that projects like Terminal 21 are signed off on 10 years before they happen.  If that's the case, T21 had ample time in the 10 years to pull the trigger and cancel the project--that is if tourism was declining for years--as some TVF posters contend.  Instead, they looked at the data, liked what they saw, and went forward.  As did Bangkok Hospital with the new Jomtien Hospital it built.  And Amari Hotel with its new family wing.  And, Ozo Hotel.  Just a few other built concrete examples of many.

      Are they all reading the data wrong and, instead, should have just talked to you and your builder merchant?  Or, perhaps, they should have consulted another poster who wrote that he has been visiting Soi 7 and Soi 8 for many years and they were very busy in the early years but the last couple of years they were full of tumbleweeds.  I've lived here 10 years and I'm not even sure what is on Soi 7 and 8--I guess western bars.  Apparently, most of the new tourists, I, and others are hanging out elsewhere.  Tumbleweeds on a couple of sois does not automatically equate to tumbleweeds everywhere and a dying Pattaya

     What's telling for me is the massive Grande Centre Point 2 project in Wongamat.  They had just  started clearing the ground as covid hit.  At that point they could have cancelled the project or at least put it on hold.  Instead, construction is continuing; as are other projects all over the city, big and not so big.  Part of old Sabai Lodge was just demolished to make way for something new.  If business is bad, why bother now--months after covid has been with us--to tear down something to build something else if there is no business?   Wouldn't it make more sense to just soldier on with old Sabai Lodge if Pattaya is dying?  Ride it out to the bitter end with what's already there?   D Beach Hotel is building a third building.  Why?  Work continues on a new highrise hotel on Naklua Road.

   Are all these businesses, and many others I haven't mentioned, 'in denial', along with me?  I'll end by saying I find it hopeful in these dire times that work is continuing on projects all over Pattaya.  As I type this I am looking out from my balcony at a small boutique hotel across the street.  It seemed perfectly fine already to me but they have been working on a remodel of the exterior with a new roof deck and new reception spaces on the ground floor.  Perhaps yet another 'in denial' but I find it encouraging.  

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3 hours ago, Titan1962 said:

Pattaya,Phuket,Bangkok,Chiang Mai and many more tourist locations need the government to look really hard at the situation in hand and the road forward. This pandemic has proved that these places cannot survive without international tourists. Maybe it’s time for the government to take a good hard look at their policies towards retirement and other long term visa holders. Why not revisit the laws on retirement visas,Thailand is a beautiful country,so much to see and do. I see a lot of countries struggling with Covid and all are having the same issues as Thailand. Shops closed,house prices falling,governments throwing heaps of money at the situation with no real end in sight. Thailand needs to think outside of the so called box and look for other options,( many are needed ). But one could be making it easier for retired people or couples to live here. A lot could be done to allow this to happen.

Do away with the 90 day reporting,once the retirement visa is issued. Need only to report if your permanent address has changed. Increase the duration of the retirement visa to 5 years after 5 years of living here. Reduce the monthly income requirements to obtain that visa due to COVID affecting people’s retirement income. Do away with dual pricing and definitely bring in that residency card or use the pink Thai ID card to allow people that live here full time a way to get out of the dual pricing scam. I think many people from all parts of the globe will be struggling with the cost of living in their home countries,during and after this COVID pandemic. Many will be looking for a cheaper and better way of life with what they have left. Thailand should seize the opportunity and make it easier and welcome these people. 
Most retirees just want to enjoy their remaining days,not all are interested in the girly bars and sitting in the bar all day pussy watching. (I did say not all). Thailand could become a destination that retirees want  to come too if it was obtainable and more friendly towards them. It would not fix the situation but it would surely help having Many more like us renting,buying property,even spending that cash at Makro,Tesco,local markets and restaurants. We as retirees might not spend as much as tourists in a week or two,but we do spend every day,every week every month continuously year in year out. That is sustainable and helps the economy grow. The other thing Thai people don’t seem to understand,that we actually take nothing from Thailand. We don’t take jobs from them,we don’t put a strain on their social security system,we don’t come here to cause trouble. We come here to spend our retirement money and try to enjoy the life we have left. 
The world has a huge ageing population,and Thailand should be taking advantage of this opportunity. 
Anyway had my rant for the day,feel a bit better now. 

     Wonderfully written.  And, in my book it's not a rant when you make clear, calm, perfect sense.

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11 hours ago, paulikens said:

i think the future is mainly 2 areas lk and walking as they was pretty busy this saturday. the likes of soi 7 and 8 will not recover from this, they are done. they was on there way out before all this nonsense, so this is the final straw. the darkside will be ok as their main custom is ex pats.  i think pattaya will be condensed. 

Agreed they were dying before the lockdown, now they are dead.

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13 hours ago, GAZZPA said:

It was in decline fella, Pattaya has been struggling for years now. Don't believe the official numbers they are very misleading.... 

 

Another article posted up; 'Phuket hotels fighting for their lives'. Unfortunately Pattaya, Phuket and Chiang Mai were all having problems, in the years - that is a plural S - before Wuhan. Many reasons specific to individual locations, but, a negative shared by all, is bad attitude of the locals to western tourists. That has been going on for some time and deliberately stoked by the powers that be. Pandemic over, wuhan over, I do not see a gang rush of westerners coming back. People are going to be tight with money for a couple years. Thailand might qualify on cheapness, at least initially, but it is not that cheap anymore, lots of other places will be giving discounts, and with them, no attitude issues & scams. It took a long time to get to this low point, that also means it will take some time to get better. I feel sorry for the individuals who have been hurt by it. People who depended on the tourist industry. I don't feel sorry for those who snarked about teflon tourism for so many years while exploiting tourists. Teflon wore off then you have a pandemic. Bad luck here in the Year of the RAT.

Things will change, into what no one knows.





 

Edited by LomSak27
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18 hours ago, BernieOnTour said:

in the end, I assume a different scenario:

- all small businesses and small hotels gone

- only international hotel chains and hotels of the “big families” survive

- the diverse style of Pattaya (and Phuket) is converted to an “All-inclusive paradise”

 

... similar to what happened in the Dominican Republic years ago ...

That looks like the plan......... " Plandemic "..........

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14 minutes ago, davemos said:

Maybe its time to look at government controlled casinos .The high rollers will come .Use the profits to help poor Thais and regulate Thai spending in them .Works in AustrLia 

Gambling has worked in Nevada for 85 years, without a single government owned casino.  Government runs lottery here.....

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47 minutes ago, moontang said:

Gambling has worked in Nevada for 85 years, without a single government owned casino.  Government runs lottery here.....

They were illegal in Aus but run by the mafia ..all underground .Legal ones are making heaps of money for infrastructure and projets .Sre there are underground one here ..Thinking it would give people a reason to stay there and benefit the locals .Most go to Cambodia or Manila anyway 

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"ohno! pattaya is doomed! no more tourists! no more inflated prices from hordes of rich foreigners who don't know the local rates for goods! ".  ohno!  without tourists, pattaya prices will return to prices of non-tourist towns and villages! ( e.g 300-500 baht instead of 1000 baht for a popular pattaya commodity ) . Its terrible !
Whats that going to do to pattaya as a prospective holiday resort for foreigners looking for cheap exotic fun?

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3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Wise words, yes the wonderful thing about this day and age is that we don't have tribal compunctions, that compel us to spawn children.

It exists in some societies and religions, and the opposite is evident in some Oriental ones. 

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