The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[duchovny]

Maybe it's time to move to Cambodia; Easy visa rules, 100% company ownership for foreigners, booming tourism industry (climbing at 20+% pa), a not-so xenophobic population.............

[solo siam]

Maybe it's time to move to Cambodia; Easy visa rules, 100% company ownership for foreigners, booming tourism industry (climbing at 20+% pa), a not-so xenophobic population.............

Sure, then when its nearly as popular as Thailand is, will come the changes in Visa rules, xenophobia etc...

[highdiver]

Big projects 'crucial' to Thai future

Pridiyathorn urges new govt to save economy

By Anucha Charoenpo

Sunday September 16, 2007

Former deputy prime minister Pridiyathorn Devakula yesterday urged decisive action by the next government to push ahead with mega-projects that he says are crucial to rescue Thailand from a sluggish economy.

snip

bangkokpost.net

Very misleading graph, why does the axis start at 4%.

I find it very strange that people see +4% GDP growth as terrible, especially seeing all that has happened in that time period.

Very strange indeed. But then if you factor in the pitiful understanding of economics of all the whingers, plus their desperate finances caused by the strength of the baht, it all makes perfect sense.

Low inflation

Strong balance of payments

Healthy GDP growth

Incredibly low unemployment

Mobile workforce

Booming exports

If this is a crisis, then the entire world is in an economic crisis.

If you look at macro economic fundamentals, and speak with significant companies in Thailand actually manufacturing and exporting, you get a very different picture of Thailand from the neer-do-well foreigner brigade who are unable to meet their monthly girlfriend payments because their $2000 pension is hammered by a strong Thai baht.

I would not be slagging anyone off about economics if I was you as it just makes you look thick as two short planks.

If you think a 4% GDP growth rate is healthy for a nation at the development stage of Thailand you are so wrong but whats new.

Vietnam over 10% and Singapore over 8% - thats GDP growth but then again you live in a 3rd world country and so you would not know any better.

BTW - how much is your monthly girlfriend payments?

as for comparing the growth between thailand and the neigbours.

thailand

GDP (purchasing power parity):$596.5 billion

GDP (official exchange rate)$197.7 billion

GDP - per capita (PPP)$9,200

GDP - composition by sector:agriculture: 10%

industry: 44.9%

services: 45.2%

vietnam

GDP (purchasing power parity):$262.8 billion

GDP (official exchange rate)$48.43 billion

GDP - per capita (PPP)$3,100

GDP - composition by sector: agriculture: 20.1%

industry: 41.8%

services: 38.1%

Singapore.

GDP (purchasing power parity):$141.2 billion

GDP (official exchange rate)$$122.1 billion

GDP - per capita (PPP)$$31,400

GDP - composition by sector:agriculture: 0%

industry: 33.8%

services: 66.2%

the Thailand GDP in purchasing power is nearly 4.5 times bigger then singapore.

so a growth rate of 8% from 140 billion is far less then 5% of 596. billion. in plain cash.

vietnam with its 10% growth is still a 10% growth of 262 as compared to thailand its still under.

when you relate to growth you must compare the economies as well.

you can see that they have nothing in comon.

vietnam is still agriculture and industry

thailand moving while still ahving agriculture is moving to industry and services.

singapore no agriculture and mainly services. (financial ones) hence the outstanding GDP per capita.

on the other hand Vietnam is still a third of thailand gdp per capita.

the growth rate can not be compared as they are so different.

the growth rate in the past years in the devloped countries are very slow.

france 2.1%

uk 2.8%

usa 3.2% expected much lower this year.

germany 2.7%

but you dont compare those with thailand as they have GDP in trillions so while the percent is very low it is still a huge increase.

for the same reason you can not compare Thailand Vietnam and Singapore.

[highdiver]

Maybe it's time to move to Cambodia; Easy visa rules, 100% company ownership for foreigners, booming tourism industry (climbing at 20+% pa), a not-so xenophobic population.............

just so you are aware of things.

All investments in Cambodia involve the ownership, lease or concession of immovable property. According to the Investment Law on the Use of Land, the foreign investors can't own the land in Cambodia. Cambodian Government restricts the land ownership only to Cambodian citizens.

http://www.gocambodia.com/Laws/land_construction.asp

as for visa:

Conditions of the Issues of the Business and Tourist Visas

The visa authorises one visit only, and the maximum length of stay is one month starting from the date of arrival within the three months periods of validation.

If the holder of the visa leaves Cambodia and wishes to return within the one month period from the date of issue of the original visa a new application must be completed and approved before re-entry.

** Note:

The validity of Diplomatic (A), Official ( and Courtesy © visas can be extended at the Ministry of Foreign affairs and International Cooperation, Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

The validity of Business (E) visa can be extended for one month, three months, six months, twelve months (or can be a multiple visa) at the Immigration Department, National Police (No. 5 Oknha Mean Street, Phnom Penh, Cambodia).

The validity of Tourist (T) visa can be extended for one month only at the Immigration Department, National Police (No. 5 Oknha Mean Street, Phnom Penh, Cambodia).

http://www.cambodianembassy.org.uk/index.php?menu=5

as for xenophobic people... please do go to cambodia and speak to the people.

[solo siam]

The GDP growth isn't based on PPP, the PPP difference just means Thailand is cheaper for purchases within the borders. i.e a basic rice lunch is 20 baht instead of the equivelant of 90 baht in Singapore.

[highdiver]

The GDP growth isn't based on PPP, the PPP difference just means Thailand is cheaper for purchases within the borders. i.e a basic rice lunch is 20 baht instead of the equivelant of 90 baht in Singapore.

totaly agree with you.

i was mearly showing how the difference in GDP spectrum to emphesize that you can not compare those economies to each other.

the growth rate is based on the GDP itslef and not the GDP per capita.

and the main point that thailands 5% growth on a 596 billion is still a healty growth and no where near a crisis.

[cclub75]

the Thailand GDP in purchasing power is nearly 4.5 times bigger then singapore.

so a growth rate of 8% from 140 billion is far less then 5% of 596. billion. in plain cash

Those 2 sentences shows clearly that you are totally confused...

What could be relevant for a comparison would be the GDP in purchasing power per capita !

To say that it's 4.5 bigger that Singapore doesn't make any sense.

And what about the last one ? 8 % from 140 billions is "far less" that 5 % of 596 billions. Again it's laughable.

You simply forget that Thailand has a population of 65 millions, against 4.5 millions for Singapore !

What is important is the wealth created per capita. Not the absolute values.

People can disagree... Always. And this thread shows it. However to make such misinterpretations (at the best...) is simply gross.

Edited September 17, 2007 by cclub75

[Mid]

compare this .............................

ADB Upgrades Developing Asia's 2007 Growth Forecast to 8.3%

17 September 2007

MANILA, PHILIPPINES - Developing Asian economies will register solid economic growth in 2007, driven by fast growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in a new major report.

The PRC and India, which together account for 55.3% of the total gross domestic product (GDP) in developing Asia, recorded their fastest growth in 13 years in the first half of 2007 and 18 years in fiscal year 2006, respectively.

The Asian Development Outlook 2007 Update (ADO Update) says growth in Asia is now more broad-based as other regions like South Asia and Central Asia continue to post robust growth, and growth accelerates in other economies, such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

snip

Growth in Indonesia continues to edge up and is now expected at 6.2% in 2007. Growth in Thailand is expected to be close to the earlier estimate of 4% in 2007 as political uncertainty continues to undermine consumer and private investment confidence.

snip

Asian Development Bank

Edited September 17, 2007 by Mid

[solo siam]

The GDP growth isn't based on PPP, the PPP difference just means Thailand is cheaper for purchases within the borders. i.e a basic rice lunch is 20 baht instead of the equivelant of 90 baht in Singapore.

totaly agree with you.

i was mearly showing how the difference in GDP spectrum to emphesize that you can not compare those economies to each other.

the growth rate is based on the GDP itslef and not the GDP per capita.

and the main point that thailands 5% growth on a 596 billion is still a healty growth and no where near a crisis.

But Thailands GDP is 197.7 billion $

GDP is GDP per capita x the number of people living in the country.

PPP is a cost of living indicator, its always higher in poorer countries because goods, services etc... are priced locally.

[highdiver]

the Thailand GDP in purchasing power is nearly 4.5 times bigger then singapore.

so a growth rate of 8% from 140 billion is far less then 5% of 596. billion. in plain cash

Those 2 sentences shows clearly that you are totally confused...

What could be relevant for a comparison would be the GDP in purchasing power per capita !

To say that it's 4.5 bigger that Singapore doesn't make any sense.

And what about the last one ? 8 % from 140 billions is "far less" that 5 % of 596 billions. Again it's laughable.

You simply forget that Thailand has a population of 65 millions, against 4.5 millions for Singapore !

What is important is the wealth created per capita. Not the absolute values.

People can disagree... Always. And this thread shows it. However to make such misinterpretations (at the best...) is simply gross.

when you compare growth you dont compare growth in PPP but in GDP in vlaues of a country and not per person.

the fact that singapore has a higer in PPP is not relevent to the growth index.

the point is they are different economies in diferent stages of development and diferent size and they can not be compared.

but if you insist... thailand has a GDP of 596 billion and Sinagapore has 140 billion. so the growth rate for each country reresents a different stage.

As i said before... why dont you compare Thailand and France.. they have only a 2% growth nearly the same population and thy have a PPP of 31,000. but the groeth of france is in trillions so 2 % growth is still in absolute values a lot more.

the same is for the comparison between Thailand and Singapore.. singapore 8 % is still in value less then Thailands 5%.

As for the point at hand... is the 5% growth for thailand at this stage good or bad???

all those citing the GDP figures have yet to come with an explenation why this is not a good helaty growth for an economy with a GDP of 596 billion.

[Mid]

is the 5% growth for thailand at this stage good or bad???

neither , it's a dream ................................

[highdiver]

The GDP growth isn't based on PPP, the PPP difference just means Thailand is cheaper for purchases within the borders. i.e a basic rice lunch is 20 baht instead of the equivelant of 90 baht in Singapore.

totaly agree with you.

i was mearly showing how the difference in GDP spectrum to emphesize that you can not compare those economies to each other.

the growth rate is based on the GDP itslef and not the GDP per capita.

and the main point that thailands 5% growth on a 596 billion is still a healty growth and no where near a crisis.

But Thailands GDP is 197.7 billion $

no its 596 billion. 197.7 is the GD official exchange rate

GDP is GDP per capita x the number of people living in the country.

G

GDP is the total GDP devided into the number of people living in the country.

PPP is a cost of living indicator, its always higher in poorer countries because goods, services etc... are priced locally.

sorry i dont understand what you are saying??? are you saying that the cost of living is higer in poorer countries??

[LaoPo]

Thai economy falling behind

The ADB (Asian Development Bank) says region is outpacing Thailand

Thailand's economy is growing below its potential and missing out on Asia's robust growth, according to Jean-Pierre Verbiest, country director for the Asian Development Bank. As Thailand's economy slows from last year, the rest of the region is exceeding growth expectations, he said.

In the first half of this year, China posted 11.5% growth, its best since 1994. India posted the fastest growth in 18 years at 9.3%, the Philippines grew 7.3% and central Asia also grew at a double-digit pace.

The ADB yesterday raised its 2007 growth forecast for developing Asia to 8.3% from earlier forecasts of 7.6%, with growth next year expected to increase to 8.2% from 7.7%.

But Thailand is the only country in the region that posted weaker growth, at 4.3% in the first half.

Strong export growth proved unable to offset sluggish consumption and private investment.

The ADB maintained its forecast for Thailand at 4% this year and 5% in 2008, even as it boosted growth projections for other countries in the region.

Mr Verbiest said Asia's economies should grow steadily, although oil prices and a US economic recession remained key risks in the near future.

For Thailand, he said, the stronger baht would impact exports in the second half, but consumption should pick up in the fourth quarter thanks to the upcoming national elections.

Next year the Thai economy should grow 5% as it would take time after the election for a recovery.

''But to achieve that growth rate in 2008, the government must put in a credible economic programme after the election, restore consumer confidence, especially business confidence to stimulate private investment. Lastly, it must raise competitiveness through productivity and innovation,'' Mr Verbiest said.

Thailand is an underperformer that is missing opportunities now being enjoyed by other countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines, which posted its highest growth rate in 20 years.

Continues here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/18Sep2007_biz30.php

LaoPo

[chownah]

i was mearly showing how the difference in GDP spectrum to emphesize that you can not compare those economies to each other.

I find it sort of funny that you are showing that you can not compare those economies by comparing them.....seems you have proved yourself wrong.

[Mid]

Thai economy mired in uncertainty

AFP

Tuesday, September 18, 2007 12:26:16 PM Oman Time

BANGKOK –– One year after Thailand's coup, the kingdom's economic growth ranks among the lowest in Southeast Asia as domestic demand and investment have slumped due to political uncertainty, analysts said.

snip

"The Thai economy was already heading for a slowdown before the coup, but things got worse after the coup," said Kitti Nathisuwan, a senior economist at Macquarie Research Equities in Bangkok. "Private consumption and private investment deteriorated further because people were very uncertain about the future. Political uncertainty was the biggest negative factor for the economy," Kitti said.

The army-installed government did little to spur growth, analysts said. "This government seemed to be so focused on neutralising the perceived threat by Thaksin and his supporters that it took its eyes off the economy," said Bob Broadfoot, managing director of Political and Economic Risk Consultancy in Hong Kong.

timesofoman.com

[highdiver]

on the other habd those that realy do cater to the money of investors....

foreign banks positive on Thailand's economy

Foreign banks have felt positive on the Thailand's political and economic situations. Leh Thiam Guan of Malaysia's RHB Bank said on Wednesday after the meeting between the Foreign Banks' Association and Thailand's central bank that he feels positive to the Thai economic and political situations, given that the political situations in the past months did not have a serious impact on the Thai economy.

More, there is still the foreign investment inflow into the country.

Boonchai Termvanich, chief representative of France's Natixis Bank, shared a common feeling, following the approval of the new constitution in the referendum on August 19 and that the country already set the date of the general election on December 23.

He added that, however, foreign investors have still closely monitored the politcal and economic situations in Thailand.

-The Nation

[LaoPo]

ADB (Asian Development Bank) Upgrades Developing Asia's 2007 Growth Forecast to 8.3%

Note: Growth in Thailand however is expected to be around 4%; half of the 8.3% for the region...see below

MANILA, PHILIPPINES - Developing Asian economies will register solid economic growth in 2007, driven by fast growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in a new major report.

The PRC and India, which together account for 55.3% of the total gross domestic product (GDP) in developing Asia, recorded their fastest growth in 13 years in the first half of 2007 and 18 years in fiscal year 2006, respectively.

The Asian Development Outlook 2007 Update (ADO Update) says growth in Asia is now more broad-based as other regions like South Asia and Central Asia continue to post robust growth, and growth accelerates in other economies, such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

The report, however, warns that economic outlook for 2008 is hazy as uncertainty reigns in global financial markets and worries about the health of the U.S. economy mount.

The ADO Update foresees growth in Asia and the Pacific of 8.3% in 2007, up from an earlier estimate of 7.6%. Provided the global economy steadies, growth of 8.2% is anticipated in 2008.

While the jury is still out on the events unfolding in credit markets and the broader global economy, a sharp dive in Asia’s economic growth still seems unlikely, it says.

“Developing Asia’s defenses against external shocks are solid and it can weather a slowdown in the United States. The region’s growth prospects will continue to depend on how well the countries address their internal challenges,” says Ifzal Ali, Chief Economist of the Manila-based multilateral development bank.

The ADO Update says global risks to economic outlook now appear accentuated. It highlights that developing Asia would surely suffer if the US economy slows abruptly, though the impact may be modest and short lived.

The report also lists avian flu, geopolitical and security risks in some parts of the region and political uncertainty in a few countries as downside risks obscuring the outlook for a number of economies.

East Asia is now expected to grow by 8.9% in 2007. The ADO Update lifts growth forecast for the PRC to 11.2% this year. It expects brisk exports, strong investment and buoyant consumption to drive economic growth to 10.8% in 2008, an upward revision from the 9.8% projection in March.

South Asia, which continues to consolidate on its progress of recent years, is expected to grow at 8.1% in 2007. Potential growth rates in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan now appear to be on a more stable trajectory. The ADO Update projects India’s economy to expand by 8.5% in 2007 and 2008.

Southeast Asia as a whole is now expected to grow at 6.1% in 2007. Private sector dynamism will help Viet Nam to post a scorching growth of 8.3% in 2007, while Philippines’ growth forecast is now upgraded to 6.6% in 2007 after the country registered its fastest first-half growth in almost 20 years.

Growth in Indonesia continues to edge up and is now expected at 6.2% in 2007. Growth in Thailand is expected to be close to the earlier estimate of 4% in 2007 as political uncertainty continues to undermine consumer and private investment confidence.

Central Asia’s growth estimates for 2007 has been raised to 11.1% as high oil prices and mineral exports continue to support economic expansion in the region.

The ADO Update downgrades the 2007 growth projection for Pacific Islands to 3.5% from 4.5% as an expected economic rebound in Timor-Leste has not been as strong as anticipated and the economic fallout in Fiji Islands has been more accentuated than expected.

The flagship economic report says while inflationary pressures emerged in some parts of the region in 2007, prospects for inflation in 2008 are difficult to predict as uncertainty shrouds the global economy. If growth turns out to be slower than anticipated, inflation could come down more quickly.

http://www.adb.org/Media/Articles/2007/121...oks/default.asp

IMPORTANT REPORT about THAILAND by the ADB

http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/ADO/2007/Update/THA.pdf

& Here, Report 2006:

http://www.adb.org/Documents/Reports/Annua...theast-Asia.pdf

LaoPo

Edited September 18, 2007 by LaoPo

[Crushdepth]

5 months and 130 pages of crap later, the Thai economy is still going ok. Give this thread up guys, its a turkey :-)

[LaoPo]

5 months and 130 pages of crap later, the Thai economy is still going ok. Give this thread up guys, its a turkey :-)

Estimated Thai economy Growth in 2007 of 4% versus 8.3% for the Asian Region is OK ?

LaoPo

[Mid]

5 months and 130 pages of crap later, the Thai economy is still going ok. Give this thread up guys, its a turkey :-)

Estimated Thai economy Growth in 2007 of 4% versus 8.3% for the Asian Region is OK ?

LaoPo

now you've done it .....................................

[LaoPo]

5 months and 130 pages of crap later, the Thai economy is still going ok. Give this thread up guys, its a turkey :-)

Estimated Thai economy Growth in 2007 of 4% versus 8.3% for the Asian Region is OK ?

LaoPo

now you've done it .....................................

I had a bad dream.....that everybody was blaming me...

LaoPo

[solo siam]

5 months and 130 pages of crap later, the Thai economy is still going ok. Give this thread up guys, its a turkey :-)

Estimated Thai economy Growth in 2007 of 4% versus 8.3% for the Asian Region is OK ?

LaoPo

Simply shows that Thailand is a more mature economy, not prone to overheating. As far as I'm aware it's the only country to have had a military coup so recently, amazing that they can still grow so successfully whilst having the baht increase in value so rapidly and being run by the Military.

[A_Traveller]

The table below was in the Bangkok Post sourced form the ADB.

Regards

[LaoPo]

5 months and 130 pages of crap later, the Thai economy is still going ok. Give this thread up guys, its a turkey :-)

Estimated Thai economy Growth in 2007 of 4% versus 8.3% for the Asian Region is OK ?

LaoPo

Simply shows that Thailand is a more mature economy, not prone to overheating. As far as I'm aware it's the only country to have had a military coup so recently, amazing that they can still grow so successfully whilst having the baht increase in value so rapidly and being run by the Military.

But, if you are satisfied with 4% growth..., that's not due to the military but in spite of of the military.

LaoPo

[Mid]

thaivisa.com

cheers AT ,

[solo siam]

5 months and 130 pages of crap later, the Thai economy is still going ok. Give this thread up guys, its a turkey :-)

Estimated Thai economy Growth in 2007 of 4% versus 8.3% for the Asian Region is OK ?

LaoPo

Simply shows that Thailand is a more mature economy, not prone to overheating. As far as I'm aware it's the only country to have had a military coup so recently, amazing that they can still grow so successfully whilst having the baht increase in value so rapidly and being run by the Military.

But, if you are satisfied with 4% growth..., that's not due to the military but in spite of of the military.

LaoPo

Yes but lets not forget that Thailand had the most rampant economy in SE Asia for an entire decade in the 80's and for most of the 90's, reaching double digit GDP growth for a number of years (88-90), lots has been said of Thaland being 20 years ahead of its direct neighbours in terms of the economy, in which case this is just those countries hitting their stride like Thailand did 20 years ago.

[highdiver]

5 months and 130 pages of crap later, the Thai economy is still going ok. Give this thread up guys, its a turkey :-)

Estimated Thai economy Growth in 2007 of 4% versus 8.3% for the Asian Region is OK ?

LaoPo

now you've done it .....................................

I had a bad dream.....that everybody was blaming me...

LaoPo

since you are a serious persons. i will ask that you read my reply from yeterday regarding the comparison of growth and GDP.

there is no comparison between the region and each country.

please xplain why ou think 4% growth is bad for thailand .and explain why a 2% growth is bad for france or moew close to your hear why a 3% groeth is bad for Holland.

Thailands economy in size is no equivelent to those in the same area so a growth of 4% is still a very healty growth.

I dont expect the Cut and Paste ignorrent poster to have an opinion as education was not one of his benefits but you seem to be a thinking person.

[highdiver]

5 months and 130 pages of crap later, the Thai economy is still going ok. Give this thread up guys, its a turkey :-)

Estimated Thai economy Growth in 2007 of 4% versus 8.3% for the Asian Region is OK ?

LaoPo

Simply shows that Thailand is a more mature economy, not prone to overheating. As far as I'm aware it's the only country to have had a military coup so recently, amazing that they can still grow so successfully whilst having the baht increase in value so rapidly and being run by the Military.

But, if you are satisfied with 4% growth..., that's not due to the military but in spite of of the military.

LaoPo

Yes but lets not forget that Thailand had the most rampant economy in SE Asia for an entire decade in the 80's and for most of the 90's, reaching double digit GDP growth for a number of years (88-90), lots has been said of Thaland being 20 years ahead of its direct neighbours in terms of the economy, in which case this is just those countries hitting their stride like Thailand did 20 years ago.

you are 100% right.

thailand is in a completely different stage.

[chinthee]

Whoa boy! highdiver is your position that 4% growth is admirable in an environment of 8-10% growth of competitive "developing country" SE Asia economies?

Better go have another drink. Get serious.

[highdiver]

Whoa boy! highdiver is your position that 4% growth is admirable in an environment of 8-10% growth of competitive "developing country" SE Asia economies?

Better go have another drink. Get serious.

from you chintee i expexcted better.

how can you compare Thailands economy with china.??

how can you compare thailnd and indonesia vietnam laos and cambodia??

please do read the post from yesterday which explains it.

if you wish to debate economics lets do debate.

my position is that thailands optimal growth at this stage of the development of the economy with out risking inflation is at about 5-5.5%.

baring in mind the apreciation of the baht, and the crisis in world markets, the growth of forign investors I belive that the growth of 4% is still a very helathy one in context of the Thai economy.

the fact that the

the main thread discussed for over 130 pages is Thailand is in a crisis. on one hand you have business people who live and work in thailand saying it is not in crisis and the

Edited September 18, 2007 by highdiver