The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[LaoPo]

Would be nice if you post your sources next time, Bingo...that's nothing more than polite.

LaoPo

[Mid]

Asia-Pacific Business News - - Week October 19, 2007

By Finfacts Team

Oct 21, 2007

finfacts.com

[Mid]

Oil vendors set to raise prices by at least 40 satang

Sunday 21 October 2007 04:19:51 PM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, Oct 20 (TNA) - Rising oil prices in the world market are expected to force oil traders in Thailand to increase the price of every oil product nationwide by at least 40 satang (0.40 baht) per litre next week, industry sources said.

Sources said oil traders in Thailand are being forced to raise their prices by at least 40 satang per litre next week as they could no longer suffer losses. Most oil dealers wanted to increase prices but could not in the past because PTT, Thailand's largest fuel trader, maintained its prices, forcing other dealers to follow suit.

Actions to be taken by traders come as the crude oil price in the Dubai market closed at US$79.5 per barrel Friday while signs that prices would continue to increase appear imminent in response to concerns arising from the Turkish parliament's vote on Wednesday to authorise cross-border military attacks in northern Iraq against Kurdish separatists.

snip

MCOT Public Company Limited

and the article goes on to state that if natural gas production isn't ramped up post haste , Thailand will be using bunker oil to fire power stations .

[bingobongo]

Would be nice if you post your sources next time, Bingo...that's nothing more than polite.

LaoPo

the source is in the image, in the lower left corner, if you would take the time to read

[LaoPo]

Would be nice if you post your sources next time, Bingo...that's nothing more than polite.

LaoPo

the source is in the image, in the lower left corner, if you would take the time to read

I did Sir, I did and saw the source.

But it's not for me it's for the members who can't open your image for one reason or another or maybe to a slow connection.

Also, no need to become itchy for your own shortcomings.

LaoPo

[usatrader]

Just when the sky is falling, there comes the clarity of context, perhaps?

Click below;

Personal (Socialism TAX) burdens of the West;

<a href="http://media.apn.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/tax_chart.jpg" target="_blank">http://media.apn.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/tax_chart.jpg</a>

Do you mean direct taxation or both direct and indirect?

Socialism - you do not know the meaning of the word - learn it on Fox News did you?

Keeping this in context as a discussion on Thailand’s Economy, it is apropos to contrast that economy against the price the west pays in comparison.

Had my good friend, not succumb, the answer was just a click away, “total tax on GDP ratios, or, if you will, total tax collected as a percentage of GDP,” is the answer, which was before one if they had merely looked.

Perhaps this link is one of clarity less obtuse to those that succumb to the confines?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...rcentage_of_GDP

Indeed, true, I proudly DO NOT know socialism, that Dysyoptia, of historical achievement, whereby at its apex devalues human innateness for the effectual and first-rate, for the officiousness of ineffectually, relegating society, at its best apex, to settle for the mediocre of third-rate efficacy.

As for Fox News, perhaps one has to accept there are views of differing taste and discernments that are not always sacrosanct to those so willing to place self appointed labels and confabs in contrary points of view. You know, an echo asking a shadow to dance is but an echo unable to shadow dance.

Happy Trails Buckaroo!

[Mid]

Local vehicle production takes a dive

Monday October 22, 2007

SANTAN SANTIVIMOLNAT

Weak consumer confidence and rising fuel prices caused local car and pickup truck production for the domestic market to shrink in the first nine months of this year, an industry official said.

Surapong Phaisitpattanapong, spokesman for Federation of Thai Industries' automobile industry club, said total car production in the nine months to Sept 30 increased by 3.24% year-on-year to 232,787 units.

Of the total, 104,207 were produced for export, rising 16.78%. Total pickup truck production for the period rose by 25.4% to 391,688 units.

However, total car production for domestic sales in the first nine months dropped by 5.63% year-on-year to 128,580 units, while pickup truck production for local sales fell by 15.3% to 291,593 units.

snip

bangkokpost.net

now where's that poster who suggested that the reason for poor motor-cycle sales announced earlier ,

was due to consumers upgrading to pick-ups ?

[bingobongo]

consumer either can not keep up with inflation or is broke................

Disappointing attendance at Gift and Housewares Fair

The 24th Bangkok International Gift and Housewares Fair has drawn a lower-than-expected number of visitors since the public has reduced their spending, according to the event's organiser.

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=32315

[highdiver]

its so nice to see hte "dooms day brigade" still going at it.

All those imported car sales..

the stock market is doing great.

all those forign invesotrs just searching where to throw cash.

yep you are right!!! there is a crisis.

[Mid]

Cooking oil prices may rise

Saturday October 27, 2007

PHUSADEE ARUNMAS

The Commerce Ministry is considering approving higher retail prices for cooking palm oil, acknowledging the impact of soaring demand for biofuels on raw material prices.

Palm nut prices currently exceed five baht a kilogramme, compared with two baht last year, while crude palm oil is nearly 30 baht a kilogramme, up from 12-13 baht a year ago. The ceiling on cooking oil retail prices, currently 38 baht per litre, will be increased soon to reflect the higher costs, according to Yanyong Phuangrach, the director-general of the ministry's Internal Trade Department.

snip

bangkokpost.net

[Mid]

Survey indicates cautious optimism

PARISTA YUTHAMANOP

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Local entrepreneurs remain cautious about an economic recovery in the latter part of the year and heading into 2008, according to the The Bank of Thailand's business sentiment survey for September.

Sixty percent of the respondents viewed that investment should pick up, with 11% forecasting stable conditions and 28% a slowdown trend.

snip

However, most entrepreneurs in Bangkok viewed that the economy could recover after the Dec 23 general election. Businessmen in the South were concerned by ongoing violence in the three southernmost provinces and those in the Northeast wanted to see a recovery of domestic demand. Forty-eight percent of respondents predicted earnings would be stable, 28% expected improvements and 24% expected worse earnings.

snip

thailandoutlook.com

latter part of the year ,

what , the EIGHT days left in the year , after the elections .........................

[Mid]

Crude oil prices are likely to hit US$100 a barrel by the end of the year

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Weak US dollar helps keep pump prices down

Crude oil prices are likely to hit US$100 a barrel by the end of the year, but the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) is expected to lift output to soften the impact, Energy Minister Piyasvasti Amranand said. He said members of Opec and other oil producers had maintained production at a similar rate to last year despite declines in reserves.

snip

thailandoutlook.com

unfortunately OPEC did not meet expectations and currently has NOT increased production levels ,

hence a recent high of 92 / barrel .

Edited October 27, 2007 by Mid

[Mid]

Economic policy to stay confused

WICHIT CHANTANUSORNSIRI

Thursday, October 18, 2007

One of the most critical tasks facing the new government after the Dec 23 elections will be to clearly outline the country's goals to the global community, local economists and business leaders said yesterday.

Charnchai Charuvastr, president of the Thai Institute of Directors, said clarity was needed regarding the country's future economic direction and strategy regardless of which party forms the new government.

''Right now we stand at a crossroads. Do we want to be a closed or an open economy? Whatever the answer, we need to be clear what it is we want to open and what we want to close,'' he said at a conference hosted by the Good Governance Research Institute of Chandrakasem Rajabhat University.

Mr Charnchai said policymakers must also reassess the country's regulatory framework for the capital markets.

''Is the Stock Exchange of Thailand a capital market or simply a casino that lacks a credible regulatory framework and is unable to address the problems of share manipulation?'' he said.

snip

thailandoutlook.com

glad it's not just me .........................

[Mid]

apparently the less said about '07 the better ,

here's an early '08 prediction ..............

Thailand's economic growth to meet 5% target in 2008

BANGKOK, Oct 26 (TNA) -- Despite rising oil prices, Thailand's inflation rate is expected to remain low while its economy is projected to sustain growth and meet the government's target of 5 per cent in 2008 due to massive investment on new electric rail lines here, Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn said on Friday.

Inflation in Thailand has not risen much and now stands at slightly over 1 per cent, still lower than 3.5 per cent set by the government, said Mr. Chalongphob.

This shows that inflation rate in the country has not been affected by increasing oil prices, he said.

The world economy, including that of Thailand, is expected to withstand the impact of soaring global oil prices as the central banks in each country must try to contain inflation in their economies from rising greatly, he said.

Touching on prospects of the Thai economy in 2008, Mr. Chalongphob said the government was confident that the combined investment of about US$3 billion on construction of three new electric train lines in Bangkok next year would help drive the country's economy and compensate exports which have become sluggish, he said.

The finance minister said he was optimistic that economy in 2008 would meet the government's target of 5 per cent due to massive investment. (TNA)-E111

MCOT Public Company Limited

[stumonster]

to me it logically does not seem to fit - I am not sure how they compute their inflation figures , but to my way of thinking if the prices of basic foodstuff and fuels is rising fast inflation should be going the same way. Factoring in the reduction in prices of imported luxuries because of a higher baht does not give a true indication of the inflationary reality for the majority of the population.

[highdiver]

oh what a wonderfull day today in the land of economic Crisis

now lets look at what those facts are for the past few days...

in the property front:

Bangkok brands to boom

http://www.property-report.com/aprarchives...amp;date=251007

Phuket condos reach for the skies

http://www.property-report.com/aprarchives...amp;date=181007

PROPERTY FUND

Overwhelming demand for TFund

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/10/25...ss_30053714.php

in business and economy

Economy in Q3 picks up this also explains the results in car sales.

According to Pannee Sathavarodom, Fiscal Policy Office's Director General, said that the indicators for the economic recovery include the rise of value added tax collection in the third quarter by 3.1 per cent year-on-year. The value-added-tax collection rose by 0.7 per cent in the second quarter compared to the same period last year.

The sale of passenger cars rose by 2.3 per cent year-on-year, the first increase after the sale of passenger cars saw a minus growth since the fourth quarter of last year.

The sale of motorcycle saw a minus growth of 23.2 per cent, nonetheless. The figure showed that the economic recovery process has already started in the city but the recovery process has yet to reach the upcountry.

Pannee said that the private investment increases in the third quarter of this year as the imports of capital goods expanded by 4.9 per cent year on year, compared to the second quarter when the private investment rose by 3.9 per cent in terms of value. The private investment prior to that dropped year on year.

Commercial vehicles sale rose by 3.8 per cent in the third quarter year on year, after the minus growth in the past five quarters.

Tax collected from property transactions expanded by 5.2 per cent in the third quarter after the minus growth in the past four quarters. The trend shows that the investment is set to expand to next year.

The Nation

but lets not stop here

Firms, households raise spending

Private investment and consumption showed signs of recovery in the third quarter, the Fiscal Policy Office said yesterday.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/10/27...ss_30053923.php

SET soars 3.2% in Asian rally

Resistance level broken as investors buy blue chips

MANUFACTURING

Manufacturing growth targeted above 6%

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/10/22...ss_30053384.php

ECONOMY

Exports rise 16.1% for first 9 monthsThe Kingdom's total export value jumped 16.1 per cent to US$110 billion during the first nine months this year and it will ensure the country to achieve its targeted growth by 12.5 per cent to US$145 billion for the entire this year.

Commerce Minister Krirkkrai Jirapaet said yesterday that however Thailand's total export value in September alone grew 10.4 per cent to US$13.27 billion, a lower growth when compared with 17.8 per cent of US$13.9 per cent in August, due to world's economic slowdown.- The Nation

RESERVES

Foreign reserves at $81 bn

Thailand's foreign reserves stood at US$81 billion as of October 12, according to the Bank of Thailand.

In the previous week, it was $79.7 billion.

Net forward positions also rose from $14 billion a week earlier to $14.3 billion.

looking at the above I have to agree...."apparently the less said about '07 the better"

I think we are just ready to hear some dooms day predictions for 2008

[midas]

looking at the above I have to agree...."apparently the less said about '07 the better"

I think we are just ready to hear some dooms day predictions for 2008

OK i have a " nonspecific " one !!

When ( not if ! ) US or Israel attacks Iran it will result in a whole host of unquantifiable

difficulties for Thailand ( and for the rest of the world ). e.g as the price of oil skyrockets

even further we will see a significant drop-off in tourism as airfares go through the roof.

Last week it was revealed the U.S. is in the process of preparing specialised bunker

busting bombs so it's inevitable...........and Dick Cheney is a war monger.

[cclub75]

I love this ping pong game. I really do.

I feel compelled to debunk the crap published by Nation, based on Fiscal Policy Office propaganda, and pasted by you.

According to Pannee Sathavarodom, Fiscal Policy Office's Director General, said that the indicators for the economic recovery include the rise of value added tax collection in the third quarter by 3.1 per cent year-on-year. The value-added-tax collection rose by 0.7 per cent in the second quarter compared to the same period last year.

Base effect. Q3 2006 was low. Therefore, mechanically, Q3 2007, with a y-o-y prism, is looking good.

But what is important is the trend.

Here are the VAT revenues (gross), published by MOF (here).

Q1 = 107,56 billions THB

Q2 = 109,94 billions

Q3 = 109,96 billions

Where is the staggering "recovery" on Q3 ?

The sale of passenger cars rose by 2.3 per cent year-on-year, the first increase after the sale of passenger cars saw a minus growth since the fourth quarter of last year.

Base effect again, Q3 last year was bad. If we look the figures (published by BOT, here ):

Q3 2006 = 44 676 cars

Q4 = 52 602

Q1 2007= 37 522

Q2 = 45 567

Q3 = 45 700

Hum... 150 cars more on Q3 compare to Q2. Now that's a serious growth indeed...

The sale of motorcycle saw a minus growth of 23.2 per cent, nonetheless.The figure showed that the economic recovery process has already started in the city but the recovery process has yet to reach the upcountry.

Sure, nothing important there : motobikes = upcountry = sharp fall... It's just that the recovery process is somehow... late upcountry. What a ridiculous statement.

So as you can see, it's often a matter of interpretation of the datas...

It's far too early to say that there is a recovery on Q3.

And even if it was true, it would be already doomed : with the oil crisis and the explosion of inflation we are going to have in the coming month, you can definitly say goodbye to the recovery that they keep calling for (remember it's started right after the coup last year...).

The Mother-Of-All-Thread shall continue.

Edited October 28, 2007 by cclub75

[PadThaiGuy]

looking at the above I have to agree...."apparently the less said about '07 the better"

I think we are just ready to hear some dooms day predictions for 2008

OK i have a " nonspecific " one !!

When ( not if ! ) US or Israel attacks Iran it will result in a whole host of unquantifiable

difficulties for Thailand ( and for the rest of the world ). e.g as the price of oil skyrockets

even further we will see a significant drop-off in tourism as airfares go through the roof.

Last week it was revealed the U.S. is in the process of preparing specialised bunker

busting bombs so it's inevitable...........and Dick Cheney is a war monger.

I agree.

Look for oil to go well above $100.

Almost a sure thing, Israel will be launching an attack against Iran to take out the nuclear missle capabilities.

Israel is constructing that huge wall and won't be tolerating any threats from overhead.

World war 3 started on 9-11-2001.

Look out.

[Naam]

and the sky! don't forget the sky will be falling in 2008!

[PadThaiGuy]

and the sky! don't forget the sky will be falling in 2008!

Why post when you really have nothing intelligent to contribute?

[Prakanong]

looking at the above I have to agree...."apparently the less said about '07 the better"

I think we are just ready to hear some dooms day predictions for 2008

OK i have a " nonspecific " one !!

When ( not if ! ) US or Israel attacks Iran it will result in a whole host of unquantifiable

difficulties for Thailand ( and for the rest of the world ). e.g as the price of oil skyrockets

even further we will see a significant drop-off in tourism as airfares go through the roof.

Last week it was revealed the U.S. is in the process of preparing specialised bunker

busting bombs so it's inevitable...........and Dick Cheney is a war monger.

I agree.

Look for oil to go well above $100.

Almost a sure thing, Israel will be launching an attack against Iran to take out the nuclear missle capabilities.

Israel is constructing that huge wall and won't be tolerating any threats from overhead.

World war 3 started on 9-11-2001.

Look out.

WW3 then really - aye right.

I bet you beleive Saddam had something to do with it as well - glad its not my taxes paying for Dubya's folly

I remember right wing lunatics saying the same thing when the russians shot down the Korean Airliner with the loony right wng American politician on board.

[Mid]

TDRI says public must control economy

Oct 29, 2007

The Thai public must depend upon itself and not the government, which is expected to be a coalition one after the December 23 general election, according to Ammar Siamwalla, acting president of the private think-tank Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI).

snip

From this point forward, Mr Ammar added, the private sector will be the major factor in driving the national economy and not the government. (TNA)

bangkokpost.com

[LaoPo]

and the sky! don't forget the sky will be falling in 2008!

...time for a storm-proof umbrella

LaoPo

[highdiver]

ohh some more bad news about the economy in crisis

SET closes 2.29% higher

Thai shares closed 2.29 per cent higher on Monday, thanks to capital inflow in Asia stock markets on anticipation of the US Federal Reserve's rate cut in the next meeting.

for our members that were very concerend about thailand not having high tech and software development.

Microsoft to acquire Thailand-based health solution firm

The software titan Microsoft Corp has agreed to acquire software, intellectual property and other assets from Global Care Solutions (GCS) Thailand, a privately held company based in Bangkok, according to the PRNewswire.

GCS develops enterpriseclass health information systems. The acquisition complements Microsoft's portfolio of health solutions. Financial terms were not disclosed.

GCS designed and developed its system in collaboration with Thailand-based Bumrungrad Hospital Plc, which owns 30 per cent of GCS.

Its neraly 6 months since this thread started and it seems its getting better all the time.

WHERE IS THE CRISIS??? WHEN IS I GOING TO HIT??

[A_Traveller]

By the by GCS, to the best of my knowledge was an American operation, possibly an Amity company. It also had a very long term relationship with MS, so this not some out of the blue purchase.

Regards

Edited October 29, 2007 by A_Traveller

[Mid]

Economic forecast set to be revised

Published on October 30, 2007

Thailand's economic forecast will be revised on November 23, when the recent oil price hikes as well as global economic conditions will be taken into account, a Finance Ministry official said.

Ekniti Nitithanprapas, director of the Fiscal Policy Office's Macroeconomic Analysis Group, said that Thailand's gross domestic product will be slashed 0.2 percentage point for every US$1 increase in the Dubai crude oil price. Meanwhile, the $1 increase will also push up inflation by 0.3 percentage point, he said.

Still, he favours the idea of letting retail oil prices move along market mechanism, but the government may need to help relieve the burden of low-income earners and the most affected sectors.

The office's current economic growth forecast is 3.8 to 4.3 per cent.

snip

nationmultimedia.com

[highdiver]

Oil is sold by USD. the USD is crashing.

Oil producers raise the price of the oil so they get the same value as before and even more.

Thailand in Baht pays nearly the same as before.

The proce of Oil in baht because the baht is stronger. is nearly the same as last year.

the price of Oil in Euro is also nearly the same.

So why are the energy companies raising the prices??? because they can!!!

The only solution is biofuels.. and the less dependency on Oil the better.

[soundman]

Oil is sold by USD. the USD is crashing.

Oil producers raise the price of the oil so they get the same value as before and even more.

Thailand in Baht pays nearly the same as before.

The proce of Oil in baht because the baht is stronger. is nearly the same as last year.

the price of Oil in Euro is also nearly the same.

So why are the energy companies raising the prices??? because they can!!!

The only solution is biofuels.. and the less dependency on Oil the better.

So why is petrol & diesel up tomorrow?

Totally agree about bio-fuels & this country is one of the few countries in the world, with the right organisation, that could achieve self suffiecincy with bio-fuels & environmently friendly power sources.

[samran]

Oil is sold by USD. the USD is crashing.

Oil producers raise the price of the oil so they get the same value as before and even more.

Thailand in Baht pays nearly the same as before.

The proce of Oil in baht because the baht is stronger. is nearly the same as last year.

the price of Oil in Euro is also nearly the same.

So why are the energy companies raising the prices??? because they can!!!

The only solution is biofuels.. and the less dependency on Oil the better.

So why is petrol & diesel up tomorrow?

Totally agree about bio-fuels & this country is one of the few countries in the world, with the right organisation, that could achieve self suffiecincy with bio-fuels & environmently friendly power sources.

not exactly the entire story, but the USD tanking does have an effect on raising prices.

Prices are going up cause supply is contrained. Oil companies can't keep up with supply, and demand from all regions is increasing (a relatively uncommon event). Bringing new fields online is being hindered by project slippages and the fact that equipment and labour can't be bought on fast enough.

US strategic reserves are lower than expected. The Northern hemisphere winter is fast approaching.

And instablity in the middle east adds a $10 to 20$ premium to oil prices. Instablity between the US and Iran will take it up to $120 no worries.