New UK lockdown likely sooner rather than later, ex-advisor warns

[rooster59]

New UK lockdown likely sooner rather than later, ex-advisor warns

By David Milliken

 

FILE PHOTO: People queue outside a test centre, following an outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Southend-on-sea, Britain September 17, 2020. REUTERS/John Sibley/File Photo

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain is likely to need to reintroduce some national coronavirus lockdown measures sooner rather than later, a leading epidemiologist and former senior government health advisor said on Saturday.

 

Neil Ferguson, a professor of epidemiology at London's Imperial College, told the BBC the country was facing a "perfect storm" of rising infections as people return to work and school.

 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Friday that he did not want another national lockdown but that new restrictions may be needed because the country was facing an "inevitable" second wave of COVID-19.

 

"I think some additional measures are likely to be needed sooner rather than later," Ferguson said.

 

Ministers were on Friday reported to be considering a second national lockdown after new COVID-19 cases almost doubled to 6,000 per day, hospital admissions rose and infection rates soared across parts of northern England and London.

 

"Right now we're at about the levels of infection we were seeing in this country in late February, and if we leave it another two to four weeks we'll be back at levels we were seeing more back in mid-March, and that's going to - or could - cause deaths," Ferguson said.

 

Britain has suffered Europe's highest death toll from COVID-19, with more than 41,000 deaths on the government's preferred measure.

 

The sharp increase in infections has not yet led to a similar rise in new fatalities - in part because cases have been concentrated among younger people - but hospital admissions are now beginning to rise.

 

STRICTER LONDON MEASURES 'LIKELY'

 

Ferguson served on the government's main scientific advisory board until May, when he stepped down after breaking lockdown rules himself.

 

He said future lockdown restrictions did not need to be as strict as those introduced in March to be effective in slowing the renewed spread of the disease.

 

More than 10 million people in parts of northern and central England are already under some form of lockdown restriction, such as a ban on inviting friends or family to their homes, or visiting pubs and restaurants after 10 p.m.

 

London's mayor, Sadiq Khan, said on Friday that tighter lockdown measures were becoming "increasingly likely" for Britain's capital.

 

Britain's capacity to test for coronavirus infections has also come under strain since schools in England reopened this month, with many people reporting that tests were unavailable or only possible at locations hundreds of miles away.

 

"We have a perfect storm right now, of people - as they have been told to do - getting back to normal, schools reopening, a surge in cases," Ferguson said.

 

Some local politicians have also expressed concern about whether businesses are collecting the details needed to track new infections.

 

Official figures on Friday showed that fewer than a third of people said businesses such as pubs and hairdressers always collected their contact details as legally required to, and a quarter reported never being asked for their details.

 

(Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by David Clarke and Alex Richardson)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-09-19

 

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[Matzzon]

Okay! There we have the reason why they offer people from Thailand and other countries on a list free of quarantine. Because they want to spread the virus a little bit around the world to countries that has a better track record. UK, this is embarrassing to read. Get a grip, and at least lock the country and take care of your problem. If others can do it, so can you.

[Cryingdick]

Don't worry the virus will be patiently waiting when you come back outside.

[Matzzon]

45 minutes ago, Cryingdick said:

Don't worry the virus will be patiently waiting when you come back outside.

Don´t worry, as of yesterday you just had to worry about over 47 000 new cases and over 900 more deaths. That´s much more in 1 day than Thailand had in total.

[evadgib]

As soon as I saw Neil Ferguson and the BBC I knew the article could be ignored. 

[dunroaming]

The lockdown most noticeable is the one on sharing information with the public.  Gone are the daily briefings and when pushed government spokes people like Hancock just duck and dive the difficult questions.  They are floundering or they are deceiving the public.  Promising that the answers are coming but actually they never do.

 

I know they are politicians so never play a straight bat, but surely now is the time to be honest with people, even if it is to just say that they are clueless how to deal with this pandemic.  

[roquefort]

The arch doom-monger Ferguson up to his tricks again. His previous predictions have been wrong by a factor of thousands, why would anyone take any notice of a single word he says? The man should have some humility and get back in his box.

[baansgr]

Yet people can still travel...you can even get a dingy over from France without so much as a passport...start from the bottom and work upwards....

[from the home of CC]

52 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

The lockdown most noticeable is the one on sharing information with the public.  Gone are the daily briefings and when pushed government spokes people like Hancock just duck and dive the difficult questions.  They are floundering or they are deceiving the public.  Promising that the answers are coming but actually they never do.

 

I know they are politicians so never play a straight bat, but surely now is the time to be honest with people, even if it is to just say that they are clueless how to deal with this pandemic.  

politicians and honesty, now there's a concept we'll never see even when it means the deaths of thousands..

[Peter Denis]

3 minutes ago, baansgr said:

Yet people can still travel...you can even get a dingy over from France without so much as a passport...start from the bottom and work upwards....

 

[RayC]

19 hours ago, Matzzon said:

Okay! There we have the reason why they offer people from Thailand and other countries on a list free of quarantine. Because they want to spread the virus a little bit around the world to countries that has a better track record. UK, this is embarrassing to read. Get a grip, and at least lock the country and take care of your problem. If others can do it, so can you.

Actually it's your post is embarrassing to read. Imo the UK government has been incompetent in its handling of the  pandemic, but do you seriously think that one of their goals is to spread the virus to other countries to make them look better? Best take your own advice and get a grip.

[7by7]

17 hours ago, evadgib said:

As soon as I saw Neil Ferguson and the BBC I knew the article could be ignored. 

 Ah, I see the old "content not poster" mantra you are so fond of doesn't suit when you don't care for the poster!

 

You seem to have missed the news that large parts of the UK are now in local lockdown or curfew.

 

New lockdown rules for Lancashire, Merseyside, North West and North East, as local restrictions tighten

 

Boris Johnson unveils £10,000 fines for breaking self-isolation rules but people on low incomes will be paid £500 to stay indoors in strict new restrictions - as infections soar and battle rages among Ministers over second lockdown

[7by7]

1 hour ago, roquefort said:

The arch doom-monger Ferguson up to his tricks again. His previous predictions have been wrong by a factor of thousands, why would anyone take any notice of a single word he says? The man should have some humility and get back in his box.

 See my post above.

[evadgib]

1 minute ago, 7by7 said:

 Ah, I see the old "content not poster" mantra you are so fond of doesn't suit when you don't care for the poster!

 

You seem to have missed the news that large parts of the UK are now in local lockdown or curfew.

 

New lockdown rules for Lancashire, Merseyside, North West and North East, as local restrictions tighten

 

Boris Johnson unveils £10,000 fines for breaking self-isolation rules but people on low incomes will be paid £500 to stay indoors in strict new restrictions - as infections soar and battle rages among Ministers over second lockdown

Predictable twist 49. My bold needs no explanation therefore none is forthcoming.

[evadgib]

3 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 See my post above.

Followed by mine.

[7by7]

1 hour ago, baansgr said:

Yet people can still travel

People can still travel at the moment; but many have to go into self isolation on return to the UK depending on where they have been.

 

1 hour ago, baansgr said:

you can even get a dingy over from France without so much as a passport...start from the bottom and work upwards....

If picked up in our territorial waters or on reaching the UK they are placed into quarantine.

 

Remember all the fuss not long ago about hotels being used for just that purpose?

[RayC]

Currently, +/-200 people per day are being admitted to hospitals in England (sorry couldn't read the UK wide data). Admittedly, this number is on the rise but not rapidly when compared with earlier this year: The NHS should be a long way from being overrun at the moment.

 

Coupled with this, the fatality rate seems to be falling and some medical professionals believe that we may be over the worse.

 

All of which begs the question: Is it worth curtailing our individual freedoms and economic activity in such circumstances?

 

My answer is 'No'. This isn't to say that precautions shouldn't be taken. Let's by all means, wear masks in built up areas and try to adhere to social distancing guidelines, etc. but another lockdown? Imo not currently justified.

 

Sources:

 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/18/is-covid-end-closer-than-we-think

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/coronavirus-why-arent-death-rates-rising-with-case-numbers-145865

 

 

[3NUMBAS]

No Evidence' Of Covid-19 Second Wave In UK, Says Top Oxford Scientist

Rachel Wearmouth

Political correspondent, HuffPost UK

,

HuffPost UK•20 September 2020

There is “no evidence” of a second wave of coronavirus and the government cannot afford a “harsh” second lockdown, a top scientist has said. 

Professor Carl Heneghan, director for the centre of evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, called for Boris Johnson to take a “a slower, analytical approach” ahead of a “long winter” beset by Covid-19 and other flu-like infections. 

It comes after the prime minister warned a second wave “is coming” on Friday, as he hinted further restrictions were likely to follow this week. 

On Friday, the “R” rate of the virus jumped to between 1.1 and 1.4, with the number of daily infections reaching more than 4,000 on Friday. 

But Heneghan told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge on Sunday: “There’s no evidence right now of what’s called a second wave.”

Asked if Johnson was wrong to claim there was, he added it was was “complicated” science for ministers, saying: “This is a seasonal effect now, if it becomes worse and it impacts on disease, then yes, that’s the point when we have restrictive measures, but that time is not now.”

He went on to caution that the country must swerve “harsh measures” immediately to curb the spread of Covid-19, adding: “What we have to do now is slow down, this is a long winter.”

He said: “What we’re seeing is that the virus is operating in a seasonal way.

[oompie69]

5 hours ago, dunroaming said:

The lockdown most noticeable is the one on sharing information with the public.  Gone are the daily briefings and when pushed government spokes people like Hancock just duck and dive the difficult questions.  They are floundering or they are deceiving the public.  Promising that the answers are coming but actually they never do.

 

I know they are politicians so never play a straight bat, but surely now is the time to be honest with people, even if it is to just say that they are clueless how to deal with this pandemic.  

That would be them stating the obvious, wouldn't it?????

[Rimmer]

A flame has been removed

[roquefort]

22 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 See my post above.

Not sure what you mean. Are you saying that all Ferguson's predictions HAVEN'T been wildly wrong?

[3NUMBAS]

Human trials of Oxford vaccine on hold in the US over spinal-cord disease fears

Paul Nuki

,

The Telegraph•20 September 2020

 

Human trials of the Oxford and AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine are yet to resume in the US over concerns the jab may cause adverse reactions.

Trials of the Oxford vaccine have been paused twice after two participants, both British women, sequentially developed transverse myelitis, an inflammation of the spinal cord that can cause paralysis.

The first pause, in July, was not publicly revealed and the trial was restarted after it was determined the volunteer had multiple sclerosis, a condition that can cause the same neurological reaction.

The second pause, widely reported two weeks ago, followed the second suspected case of the condition in a volunteer who is said to have been hospitalised but now recovered.

Trails of the vaccine have since been restarted in Britain, Brazil, India and South Africa, but are still on pause in the US where the legal and historical context means regulators tend to take a tougher stance.

On Saturday, AstraZeneca released further data on its trial protocols, but US experts continued to raise concerns.

[3NUMBAS]

UK figures are nothing compared with the rest of europe

 

 

Mr Shapps warned if the nation doesn't break the cycle of new infections, the UK is facing a future like France and Spain, who have shocking infection rates of 101.9 cases per 100,000 and 157 per 100,000 respectively.

France had a devastating new case count of 10,569 cases yesterday after a massive high of 13,498 last week and more than 5,000 hospitalisations.

Spain has had almost 130,000 new cases in the past two weeks and is averaging 10,000 infections a day, and suffered a deadly 239 deaths one day last week.

Mr Shapps told LBC: “I spoke to (the CMO and CSO) over the weekend and they will set out how our path, if we don’t break it, is similar to France and Spain’s, and we’ve seen what’s happened over there, and we’re very keen to try and arrest that route here.”

Speaking to Sky News, Mr Shapps added: "It is clear we're just a few weeks behind what we're seeing elsewhere in Europe.

"You only have to look at what's happening in France, particularly in Spain, and you can see that things have taken off there including, I'm afraid, deaths. So it is very important that we do everything we can to bear down on this.

 

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12724065/uk-weeks-behind-france-spain-lockdown/

[MRToMRT]

The reality is that nearly everyone over a certain age has continued to be in a degree of lockdown since this started. So its not much change for us.

 

The mistake was opening pubs and clubs and the like. The gov advisors should have known that was not good move and that the young would be like young folk everywhere.

[Nout]

The health minister is an incompetent dolt who could not prepare a first aid box for a boy scout meeting.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-latest-uk-matt-hancock-asymptomatic-spread-sage-guidance-infections-b519138.html?fbclid=IwAR3zKc-SeUyQu0Jn3vuC3FlrQgPX6ngehxztNnC2yMT-XiaISArWBVpbtKY