UK's Johnson says 'strong possibility' of no-deal split in EU trading ties

[webfact]

UK's Johnson says 'strong possibility' of no-deal split in EU trading ties

By William James and Gabriela Baczynska

 

FILE PHOTO: Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson meets European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in London, Britain January 8, 2020. REUTERS/Toby Melville

 

LONDON/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Thursday there was "a strong possibility" Britain and the EU would fail to strike a new trade deal, but vowed to do whatever he could to avoid a tumultuous split in three weeks.

 

The European Union and Britain are at loggerheads over fishing rights, economic fair play and dispute settlement, despite months of talks to cover trade from Jan. 1 when the United Kingdom finally exits the bloc's orbit.

 

The two sides have set a deadline of Sunday to find agreement and prevent a chaotic break.

 

After a meeting with his senior ministers, Johnson said the treaty on the table did not work for Britain.

 

"We need to be very, very clear there's now a strong possibility, strong possibility that we will have a solution that's much more like an Australian relationship with the EU, than a Canadian relationship with the EU," Johnson said.

 

The UK and EU have set a Sunday deadline to agree a Brexit trade deal, after evening talks between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen failed to produce a breakthrough. Julian Satterthwaite reports.

 

Australia, unlike Canada, has no comprehensive trade deal with the EU, leaving its trade mostly subject to tariffs. Johnson uses the comparison to suggest a deal is not necessary, though Australia has only a fraction of Britain's trade with Europe.

 

Under such a scenario, Britain would see trade barriers imposed with the EU, its main economic partner, in just three weeks.

 

Sterling dropped against the U.S. dollar to $1.3262 on the remarks, down from around $1.33. It was last almost 0.9 percent lower on the day at $1.3274.

 

Johnson spoke as the 27 national EU leaders met in Brussels and the bloc's chief executive, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, said bridging the persistent differences in UK trade talks was "difficult".

 

"We are willing to grant access to our single market... but the conditions have to be fair," she said. "This fine balance of fairness has not been achieved so far."

 

"FAIRNESS" VS "SOVEREIGNTY"

The British prime minister, who campaigned for Brexit on the platform of regaining Britain's sovereignty, said the issue was the EU insisting on tying Britain to the bloc's future labour, social and environmental standards, as well as state aid rules.

 

The EU wants a so-called "ratchet clause" to ensure that Britain matches any future improvements in EU standards, to keep access to its market.

 

"No-deal would not be a good thing but a bad deal would be even worse. Giving access to the common European Union market... should be on a level playing field," said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo.

 

Earlier on Thursday, the bloc set out its contingency plans for an abrupt split in ties to keep "certain air services" between Britain and the EU, basic connections by road freight and for road passengers for six months if the UK reciprocated.

 

Britain would examine the proposals, a government spokeswoman said. But London quickly rebuked the Commission's offer to keep reciprocal access to fishing waters for a year.

 

While Johnson said the public and businesses needed to ready themselves for the prospect of no deal, he kept alive the prospect an accord could still be found.

 

"I will go to Brussels, I will go to Paris or go to Berlin or wherever, to try to get this home and get to a deal," he said.

 

Britain left the EU in January and has since been in a transition period, with rules on trade, travel and business unchanged. That ends on Dec. 31.

 

If by then there is no agreement to protect around $1 trillion in annual trade from tariffs and quotas, businesses on both sides will suffer.

 

In a sign of potential disruption ahead, trucks heading towards the English port of Dover were stacked up for miles on Thursday, with Brexit stockpiling and pre-Christmas traffic blamed.

 

(Additional reporting by Alistair Smout, Thyagaraju Adinarayan, Tommy Wilkes, Paul Sandle and Kate Holton in London, by John Chalmers and Robin Emmott in Brussels; Writing by Michael Holden, John Chalmers, Guy Faulconbridge and Gabriela Baczynska; Editing by William Maclean, Edmund Blair and Peter Graff)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-12-11

 

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[Samui Bodoh]

I truly do not understand why the EU is bothering with the UK anymore. Yes, the UK has a large economy, but given all the downsides, is it worth the effort?

 

The UK endlessly whines and complains about the EU; why would the EU want to have that in a partner/partnership?

 

The UK has already demonstrated that it can't be trusted to abide by any agreement made (see exit agreement); why would the EU want to have that in a partner/partnership?

 

The UK, as evidenced by its withdrawal, may not want to keep any deal made for a significant period of time; why would the EU want to have that in a partner/partnership?

 

The UK has a good-sized economy now, but after withdrawal its economy will shrink; why would the EU want to have that in a partner/partnership?

 

Overall, from an EU perspective, I do not see a good reason to continue with the UK.

 

41 minutes ago, webfact said:

"We need to be very, very clear there's now a strong possibility, strong possibility that we will have a solution that's much more like an Australian relationship with the EU, than a Canadian relationship with the EU," Johnson said.

 

Hey Boris! Do you not realize that you and you alone do not decide what deal you have with the EU?

 

If I were the EU, I'd just walk and let the UK suffer the consequences of their actions.

 

 

[TopDeadSenter]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

"We need to be very, very clear there's now a strong possibility, strong possibility that we will have a solution that's much more like an Australian relationship with the EU, than a Canadian relationship with the EU," Johnson said.

I just do not believe him. I think there are 2 choices. Most likely is there will be another extension to the "transition period" starting with 12 more months. Otherwise we will see Boris give such concessions on the main sticking points to get a deal that it will be a BRINO.

 Hope I am wrong.

[Rookiescot]

The vote leave campaign won the referendum on the premis we would be staying in the single market.

There is no mandate from the people for a no deal Brexit.

The entire thing has been railroaded into this by hard line Brexiteer fanatics in the Conservative party.

[rupert the bear]

i would like a deal,i would have voted remain if allowed a vote .uk has dropped the ulster clause a good thing i thought but the fishing deal is difficult ,these r uk waters now not EU ones,of course the uk does not wish to deprive eu fishers of a living but they cannot have juristiction in another countries waters.no one would agree to that.Uk has all the same rules and regs as EU but what if the rules are changed in brussels in 5 yrs time and its not compatible with Uk law,it seems reasonable that an independent country can have its own rules and regs and vice versa.if UK insists we bring in trade sanctions against chinese aggression within its own borders,against minorities dissidents, Hk,vietnam belt and road,taiwan etc the  eu must follow ?it appears merkels relationship with the great dictators EG putin and xi is quite different to other countries and they are good buddies.turn the gas on vlad mate.theres a great deal to lose on both sides.the german car ind for one thing. its europes driving economic force.french agriculture etc and of course the uk side is heavily reliant on eu trade,the absurd bonapartist posturing from macron is rather sickening,visas required for a stay over 90 days.yikes.his position must be seriously under threat so fire a volley over the channel.when sales of cheese wine etc dry up and tourism declines im sure the french will have something to say to macron about that daimler to merkel too and spain port and greece badly need revenue and we love those places,why screw that up with petty vulgarity a la brussles corrupt beaurocrats?its about your citizens comrade not about a political dogma.give and tajke is needed from both sides to some degree or just do your job and serve the citizen not yourself and the political dogma of a super state.

[Somtamnication]

Hard to read without paragraphs. Anyway. We just sealed trade deals worth billions with Singapore and Vietnam. It is  nice to be independent and have trade deals with 200+ countries. Who needs EU? 

 

If they block Brits from traveling or owning homes, we do the same.  EU better watch it!

[Pedrogaz]

Leave with no deal and cheer.

[Pedrogaz]

3 hours ago, Somtamnication said:

Hard to read without paragraphs. Anyway. We just sealed trade deals worth billions with Singapore and Vietnam. It is  nice to be independent and have trade deals with 200+ countries. Who needs EU? 

 

If they block Brits from traveling or owning homes, we do the same.  EU better watch it!

Reciprocity......we need it 100% and total sovereignty.

[natway09]

Unfortunately it is the ordinary folks on the street that will suffer when prices of everyday requirements go up

by 40% in 3 months.

[RayC]

5 hours ago, Somtamnication said:

We just sealed trade deals worth billions with Singapore and Vietnam.

 

Combined Singapore and Vietnam account for <0.5% of the UK's annual trading volume. 

 

5 hours ago, Somtamnication said:

 

It is  nice to be independent and have trade deals with 200+ countries.

 

The EU has 40+ trade deals worldwide. The UK currently has agreements to roll-over 27 of these. Where on earth (no pun intended) have you managed to find 200+ deals?(Incidentally, there are only 193 sovereign states in the world).

 

5 hours ago, Somtamnication said:

Who needs EU? 

 

Given that the EU accounts for over 40% of our annual trading volume, we do.

[Natai Beach]

This all sort of reminds me of my brothers divorce. 
Everything was going smoothly in the marriage, nice home, kids in good schools, no infidelity.

 

One day out of the blue after many years together she decided she needed a divorce for no real reason. Then she decided that the house should be all hers, she should control the kids and my brother should pay her so she could maintain her lifestyle that she had when they were still living together.
She wouldn’t budge.

[GrandPapillon]

2 hours ago, natway09 said:

Unfortunately it is the ordinary folks on the street that will suffer when prices of everyday requirements go up

by 40% in 3 months.

price of cheese and French wines will go up 100% ????

[nausea]

Sometimes it's good to have an (apparently) stupid guy in charge of negotiations. Like people believe what he says. Or maybe not. I'm conflicted, this is either a brilliant negotiating strategy, or totally stupid. Time will tell.

[vinny41]

6 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

price of cheese and French wines will go up 100% ????

Wow  you mean the price of cheese and French wines will go up 100% in France to recover the lost of sales to the UK market

[GrandPapillon]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

Wow  you mean the price of cheese and French wines will go up 100% in France to recover the lost of sales to the UK market

quite possible it will go up too, but not as much as in the UK ????

[vinny41]

5 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

quite possible it will go up too, but not as much as in the UK ????

In the UK if French wine is double the price they will have to compete with English wines 

25 of the finest English wines, from Lyme Bay Pinot Noir to Chapel Union Brut Rosé

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/food-and-drink/best-english-wines-158431

[GrandPapillon]

53 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

In the UK if French wine is double the price they will have to compete with English wines 

25 of the finest English wines, from Lyme Bay Pinot Noir to Chapel Union Brut Rosé

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/food-and-drink/best-english-wines-158431

yeah, but the increased demand on English wines will push up the price too ????

 

can't win ????

[puipuitom]

11 hours ago, Somtamnication said:

Hard to read without paragraphs. Anyway. We just sealed trade deals worth billions with Singapore and Vietnam. It is  nice to be independent and have trade deals with 200+ countries. Who needs EU? 

 

If they block Brits from traveling or owning homes, we do the same.  EU better watch it!

Who wants to travel to the cold and foggy islands ?

 

Trade deals: how much better are these compared with the EU deal, the UK already had ? if not better... why all the fuzz ? See also the magnitude of the EU - UK trade.

 

The UK service industry could also be about to lose its guaranteed access to European markets. This would affect everyone from bankers and lawyers, to musicians and chefs.

While it was an EU member, the UK was automatically part of about 40 trade deals which the EU had with more than 70 countries. In 2018, these deals represented about 11% of total UK trade.

So far, 27 of these existing deals, covering 57 countries or territories, have been rolled over and will start on 1 January 2021. The latest deal to be signed was with Singapore on 10 December.

The U.K. has now secured post-Brexit trade deals with 53 countries accounting for 164 billion pounds ($218 billion) of bilateral trade, the government said. That’s less than 12% of the 1.4 trillion pounds (about $1.9 trillion) of trade Britain recorded last year.

Some talks are still ongoing - with countries like Vietnam and Mexico

UK signs trade deal with Canada to prepare for Brexit

apnews.com/article/brexit-global-trade-europe-383db423697269ffc5799e41d5f…

Brexit: What trade deals has the UK done so far? - …

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47213842

04-12-2020 · In 2018, these deals represented about 11% of total UK trade. So far, more than 20 of these existing deals, covering 50 countries or territories, have been rolled over and will start on 1 January...

[Loiner]

7 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

price of cheese and French wines will go up 100% ????

Is that a promise, and how will you make that happen? I get the distinct feeling that you think it is a bad thing. The world is full of wine and cheese, so no great shakes there.

Is this your only example of why the EU in general and French in particular don't want the UK to leave? There are plenty more similar ones, regardless of your percentage, which is why the UK consumer will simply change the source of origin to cheaper producers.

[puipuitom]

The "financials" are already leaving

From: Ebury <[email protected]>
Sent: vrijdag 11 december 2020 17:05

 

We refer to our previous letter to you in October 2020 about the adjustments made by Ebury with regard to the Brexit. In that letter we noted that, following the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, the services provided to you by Ebury Partners UK Limited will be provided by Ebury Partners Belgium NV with effect from 15 December 2020 and your account would have been transferred to Ebury Partners Belgium NV.

[RayC]

50 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

The "financials" are already leaving

From: Ebury <[email protected]>
Sent: vrijdag 11 december 2020 17:05

 

We refer to our previous letter to you in October 2020 about the adjustments made by Ebury with regard to the Brexit. In that letter we noted that, following the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, the services provided to you by Ebury Partners UK Limited will be provided by Ebury Partners Belgium NV with effect from 15 December 2020 and your account would have been transferred to Ebury Partners Belgium NV.

I'd imagine that similar things are happening throughout the EU. 

 

I have British friends in Belgium who have been advised by, I think, Barclays and Lloyds that they will not be able to bank with them post-transition as financial 'passporting' will cease to exist for UK institutions and, presumably neither bank has a Belgium banking licence?

 

Probably only a relatively few Brits are affected by changes such as this, but it is  yet another consequence of Brexit. And for what? No Brexiter on TVF has been able to give any concrete examples of how UK nationals will be better off in 2021, especially in the event of a 'No deal'.