Worst case scenario: 18,000 daily new COVID cases by mid January

[bwpage3]

56 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Wow, 40 deaths in a country of 60 millions.

Those are some serious pandemic numbers

If you understood how to read, that is from the new strain of covid.

 

The article implies the covid situation is getting worse, not better.

 

 

[Anton9]

3 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

If you understood how to read, that is from the new strain of covid.

 

The article implies the covid situation is getting worse, not better.

 

 

Yeah sure, the new super infectious strain for which everyone is freaking out and blocking flights from UK but now they realized it's actually been spreading since November.

This BS is hilarious

[bwpage3]

1 minute ago, Anton9 said:

Yeah sure, the new super infectious strain for which everyone is freaking out and blocking flights from UK but now they realized it's actually been spreading since November.

This BS is hilarious

No it is not BS and it is not hilarious.

 

The death toll has devastated families across the globe.

 

Covid has exposed the whole world to exactly what can happen if a virus spreads worldwide.

 

 

 

 

[Anton9]

1 minute ago, bwpage3 said:

No it is not BS and it is not hilarious.

 

The death toll has devastated families across the globe.

 

Covid has exposed the whole world to exactly what can happen if a virus spreads worldwide.

 

 

 

 

Some people like yourself just find out death , surprise for you people have always been dying since the start of humanity.

Every year 9 millions kids die of hunger and hundred of millions of other diseases/accidents.

Now drop your hypocrisy and welcome to the real world

[DB58]

6 hours ago, Boomer6969 said:

after 9 months of one of the worst economic downturns the government is taking a course that favours business at the expense of human lives.

I like your post, but dare I say that economic downturn = poverty for many, and poverty = human suffering and loss of life, especially for the lower income people. My point is, this is a complex problem, pain, suffering and death on both sides of the equation. Massive humanitarian relief programs could help reduce suffering, which we have not seen. But then again this is only my opinion and observations; and are only a glimpse of part of the overall picture, and none of this is a pretty picture. I fear many have and are suffering from the economic disaster, and now maybe facing the disease side of the pandemic. ????

[SupermarineS6B]

6 hours ago, RJRS1301 said:

Evidence please for your assumption would be helpful, or you become a cultist conspiracy theory peddler

It's called desperation, and it hasn't got going yet....... People have to eat...... even the super humans in the military.... 

[HiSoLowSoNoSo]

A great opportunity for the ruling dinosaurs to get off the hook again, no more demonstrations will be allowed for sure. 

[Freigeist365]

I just find it hilarious, the way all those muppets barf random numbers out into the ether, expected tourist numbers, GDP numbers, infection numbers, lottery numbers... "Renfield, we need a number!

Edited December 29, 2020 by onthedarkside
social media video removed

[smew]

So in the end,  it was not the tourists that brought it in but Thai jumping the quarantine.

 

Funny as hell... almost wan to cry...  

[4reaL]

18,000 compounded by those who they cross infect, TH will have some real issues like the modern western nations who cannot handle huge influx of sick ppl needing admittance to monitor their health.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[kiwikeith]

11 hours ago, Moonlover said:

Back in July it was reported that Thailand had 209 test centres throughout the country. Should we reach the projected level of 18,000 per day, which I very much doubt, that will average out at 82 tests per centre per day.

 

I'm sure they can cope.

 

Sorry, I can't post the reference of the source because it was in the Bangkok Post, but it's easy enough to find.

The thing is, they should have prepared for a second outbreak. 

They should have test kits. 

Instead they become complacent, corrupt border officials, smuggling Burmese worker's, casino girl workers walking across the Tachilek border and no doubt corrupt officials allowing gamblers to do the same. 

Add in the rotten famous South border town where Malaysian people walk across at night, at will for a night of sin there was always going to be a problem. 

Now I think that they were lucky first wave, became complacent, and now the big boy knows not what to do. 

 

Instead they went on about putting a Thai on the moon, lunar lunacy can be the name of the first mission. 

[Soikhaonoiken]

This is not Thailands 2nd wave of covid-19,  This is the 1st, that for some reason bypassed Thailand in early 2020,

Just hoping its not as bad as when Europe got hit. 

[Bradmeister]

Sadly, the government has unknowingly added to the spread of the virus.  I doubt they will own up or be accountable without more people speaking out.

 

If we think a Sports Arena or a Fish Market has had impact on First and Second waves: Take a look at the figures below on how many people were screened at The Chiang Wattana Government Complex in just 90 days!

 

How many government people are working at this facility? How many migrants? How many contractors and vendors?  If you look and listen very carefully in the early morning, you can see and hear sickness through out the complex.

 

ALMOST 170000 PEOPLE RENEWED THEIR PASSPORTS IN JUST 90 DAYS!  

 

Its time for residents and retirees to be renewed via the web. E-visa needs to be heavily advocated in 2021. 

 

Help the government to help themselves: If you see something, say some thing. 

[ChiangMaiCal]

14 hours ago, Moonlover said:

Back in July it was reported that Thailand had 209 test centres throughout the country. Should we reach the projected level of 18,000 per day, which I very much doubt, that will average out at 82 tests per centre per day.

 

I'm sure they can cope.

 

Sorry, I can't post the reference of the source because it was in the Bangkok Post, but it's easy enough to find.

I believe you have overlooked the fact that to identify 18,000 positive cases, they will need to test anywhere between 20 to 50 times that number. Per day.

[Fex Bluse]

15 hours ago, dinsdale said:

How do you know there wasn't? Very low testing = very low cases. I'm astounded people still think the previous numbers of infected are true and was the actual total number of infected people in Thailand. It doesn't make sense. They are now saying around 11.5% are positive. The last number of tests in Thailand I remember seeing all those months ago was in the mid 200,000's so more than likely 20,000+ positive. As I've said in another post, covid outbreak in AN AREA of Sydney. 400,000 tests in the last 2 weeks.

This makes sense: Zero tests, zero infections found. 

Lots of very poorly educated Farangs here. Quite frankly not much more switched on than average Thais. Scary 

[TD2312]

16 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Look at the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in the US. It served as a Superspreader Event.

 

Last year's Lunar New Year was the original Covid-19 Superspreader Event, as traveling Chinese carried the virus to the four corners of the globe, and here we are almost a year later pushing 2 million dead and economies in shambles.

 

This coming New Year may well do the same in Thailand, with one saving grace being that, unlike Sturgis or Lunar New Year, most folks will be wearing masks and are both aware of and believe in the virus.

Source? USA Today puts estimates between 0.02% and 0.09% 460,000 attendees. Hardly a "Superspreader" event

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by TD2312
Added stats

[wavodavo]

16 hours ago, Guderian said:

Back in March, the government directed the response centrally on the advice of the CCSA, and as far as I'm aware they never ignored or over-ruled it. They delegated certain decisions to the provincial governors, but they usually did the least that could be expected of them, you may remember that at one stage there seemed to be a small competition between some of them as to who could impose the harshest restrictions.

 

Now they seem to have delegated everything to provincial level and sidelined the CCSA, which is presumably why we're getting all these dire forecasts from them. The CCSA has shown that it's competent and capable of handling the situation, at least in the early stages of an outbreak, so why on earth isn't Prayut listening to them any more? We need doctors and scientists leading the response, not corrupt local politicians with all their business friends pressuring them not to shut anything down.

 

16 hours ago, Guderian said:

Back in March, the government directed the response centrally on the advice of the CCSA, and as far as I'm aware they never ignored or over-ruled it. They delegated certain decisions to the provincial governors, but they usually did the least that could be expected of them, you may remember that at one stage there seemed to be a small competition between some of them as to who could impose the harshest restrictions.

 

Now they seem to have delegated everything to provincial level and sidelined the CCSA, which is presumably why we're getting all these dire forecasts from them. The CCSA has shown that it's competent and capable of handling the situation, at least in the early stages of an outbreak, so why on earth isn't Prayut listening to them any more? We need doctors and scientists leading the response, not corrupt local politicians with all their business friends pressuring them not to shut anything down.

Australia has a similar problem.The Prime Minister set up a federal cabinet that met every week or so and all state Premiers were given the latest advice and recommendations regarding the best way to handle the virus from the government expert panel .However each premier had there own ideas and some states put in restrictions,some partial lock-down,some closed their borders altogether.Its been a total mess and has destroyed some states economies and confused everybody.

[wavodavo]

15 hours ago, RJRS1301 said:

{ am trusting you do understand these estimates and the previous ones are done on several types of modelling of events, possible  behaviours of public, control matrix and measures and public education, and are nowhere near an exact science.

 

Yeah just like the weather bureau who predict the weather, rainfall , cyclones etc. using computer modelling.Look how accurate they are !!

[wavodavo]

15 hours ago, RJRS1301 said:

{ am trusting you do understand these estimates and the previous ones are done on several types of modelling of events, possible  behaviours of public, control matrix and measures and public education, and are nowhere near an exact science.

 

The weather bureau uses the same computer modelling to predict weather events such as floods, droughts., rainfall and cyclones etc....how accurate are they.???

[TD2312]

14 hours ago, PGSan said:

What is this, please?

Sturgis is a place in South Dakota in the US. Each year motorcycle rider's gather for what is basically one big party 

[dinsdale]

1 hour ago, Fex Bluse said:

Lots of very poorly educated Farangs here. Quite frankly not much more switched on than average Thais. Scary 

17,000 tested in Sydney cluster overnight. This is how you find infectious people and then trace and isolate. Testing.

[sezze]

18 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

17,000 tested in Sydney cluster overnight. This is how you find infectious people and then trace and isolate. Testing.

Works only i you got a few cases. I cannot guess how far it has been spread out already in Thailand . I can tell you that in Europe ( and i think US also ) the virus is everywhere . Testing everybody will surely get a lot of cases , but would also take tremendous effort and you would miss the persons in the window of infected but not positive yet ( this can be 2-3 days ) .

If you got 10 cases and lock down a city , and test the complete city it surely works , no doubt about it .

[wavodavo]

10 hours ago, teacherclaire said:

Dr Taweesilp gave three projections, with the worst case scenario being 18,000 daily new cases by January 14th.

 

   This doctor might not know what other countries currently experience.

 

      Last week in Germany from Friday to Saturday 55,000 new infections and more than 500 deaths.

 

   Is it possible that they are dreaming and talk out of their thingy? 

 

The numbers could easily be much higher, no need to be a doctor, or a fortune teller. 

What nobody has mentioned here yet is how many people with serious  illness such as stroke., heart attack, diabetes lung diseases , cancer, etc.  are admitted to hospital ,are tested for covid and later when they die are recorded as cause of death ...COVID.They were gonna die anyway..saves the doctors doing a post mortem. How many times has this happened around the world  I ask.????

[Bim Smith]

If they are using the Imperial college London for those predictions this won't end well. Ferguson and his cronies predicted Thailand would have the highest death toll at the beginning of the year. 

[Moonlover]

3 hours ago, ChiangMaiCal said:

I believe you have overlooked the fact that to identify 18,000 positive cases, they will need to test anywhere between 20 to 50 times that number. Per day.

Well that is probably true, but they don't just sit there doing one test at a time. Tests are done in large batches by machine and the results flagged up automatically. The actual capacity would be far more than the 86 per day that I quoted.

 

I remain quite optimistic that Thailand can handle this new outbreak. Even our little village in rural Issan has got into the spirit of things. NY bashes have been cancelled and I noticed a lot of folks have brought out the masks again.

 

They beat this virus once and they can do it again.

 

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Moonlover

[ThailandRyan]

5 hours ago, Bradmeister said:

Sadly, the government has unknowingly added to the spread of the virus.  I doubt they will own up or be accountable without more people speaking out.

 

If we think a Sports Arena or a Fish Market has had impact on First and Second waves: Take a look at the figures below on how many people were screened at The Chiang Wattana Government Complex in just 90 days!

 

How many government people are working at this facility? How many migrants? How many contractors and vendors?  If you look and listen very carefully in the early morning, you can see and hear sickness through out the complex.

 

ALMOST 170000 PEOPLE RENEWED THEIR PASSPORTS IN JUST 90 DAYS!  

 

Its time for residents and retirees to be renewed via the web. E-visa needs to be heavily advocated in 2021. 

 

Help the government to help themselves: If you see something, say some thing. 

Screened does not mean tested.  Testing was only done if a fever was shown, all they were doing was doing temperature checks.

[Road Warrior]

we ask --where is the vaccine ?????    the rest of the world has got vaccine!!!!!!!  

[cyril sneer]

6 hours ago, Soikhaonoiken said:

This is not Thailands 2nd wave of covid-19,  This is the 1st, that for some reason bypassed Thailand in early 2020,

Just hoping its not as bad as when Europe got hit. 

only 1 death so far

[Magenta408]

A late escape from the Imperial College Asylum.

[NoshowJones]

15 hours ago, HashBrownHarry said:

more testing?

Corruption at the borders, illegal border crossings, The unelected "PM" and his soldiers not doing their jobs properly.