New coronavirus wave seen derailing Thailand's economic recovery

[snoop1130]

New coronavirus wave seen derailing Thailand's economic recovery

By Orathai Sriring, Satawasin Staporncharnchai

 

Thai baht banknotes are seen next to gold offered for sale in a gold shop in Bangkok's Chinatown April 19, 2013. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj/Files

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - A new round of restrictions in Thailand aimed at containing a fresh wave of coronavirus infections will likely derail the economy’s nascent recovery from its 2020 slump.

 

Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha urged the public on Monday to stay home and avoid travel after authorities closed a series of venues - from schools to bars - and restricted business hours in Bangkok and some other provinces this month.

 

Thailand had largely controlled the virus by mid-2020 but a cluster linked to migrant workers in December has led to infections in more than half of its provinces.

 

Economists worry the latest outbreak will hurt retail spending and deal another blow to Thailand’s key tourism industry, both central to the government’s 1.9 trillion baht ($63.57 billion) stimulus efforts to reignite growth.

 

“It’s very tough. People don’t want to spend,” said Chanaporn Fongwichai, a 31-year-old clothes vendor in the city of Udon Thani, adding that sales at her shop have halved since the latest outbreak started.

 

Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy suffered its biggest annual slump since the Asian financial crisis in the second quarter of 2020, hard hit by a ban on foreign visitors, while coronavirus curbs also hurt spending and investment.

 

While the loosening of restrictions gave way to a rebound in the third quarter, analysts worry fresh curbs will bring more pain to an economy expected to have slumped 6-7% in 2020 - which would be the biggest contraction in over two decades.

 

In December, the Bank of Thailand cut its 2021 growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.6% and some analysts have followed suit. It expects the economy to have slumped 6.6% in 2020.

 

CIMB Thai Bank last week slashed its 2021 growth forecast to 2.6% from 4.1%, while Tisco Group economist Thammarat Kittisiripat said he would cut his projection for this year to below 3% from 3.4% previously.

 

“The new wave of COVID-19 is more severe than earlier, which will disrupt the economic recovery this year,” he said.

 

TOURISM INDUSTRY

 

One key concern is that the outbreak could derail government efforts to revive Thailand’s tourism industry, just as the country started to reopen to foreign tourists in October.

 

Thailand received nearly 40 million foreign visitors in 2019, whose spending accounted for 11.4% of gross domestic product that year. The government expects just 5 million foreign tourists to visit Thailand this year, down from 6.7 million in 2020.

 

“Our bookings are below 20% now, compared with 80-90% during October-November... there are almost no forward bookings,” said Chotchuang Surangkul, associate managing director at N.S. Travel and Tours, which runs 20 hotels across the country.

 

For the business to cope, company employees have had to work four days a week with 20% pay cuts since July, he added.

 

Thailand’s automobile industry, which exports half of the car it produces, is also worried fresh restrictions will hit demand at a time when a strong baht is already hurting overseas sales. The baht has gained 10.9% against the dollar since April.

 

“The most important thing is confidence as people may be worried about their incomes and not want to spend,” said Surapong Paisitpattanapong, spokesman of the Federation of Thai Industries’ Auto Industry Club.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-01-05

 

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[ukrules]

That's a shame, just when things were going so well????

 

The last remnants of the tourist industry are being dismantled as I write this.

[Tropicalevo]

Why the heck are we looking at a photograph from 2013?

[fusion58]

5 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy suffered its biggest annual slump since the Asian financial crisis in the second quarter of 2020, hard hit by a ban on foreign visitors, while coronavirus curbs also hurt spending and investment.

 

And yet, somehow, the baht remains unaffected. Funny how that happens.

[fusion58]

5 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thailand’s automobile industry, which exports half of the car it produces, is also worried fresh restrictions will hit demand at a time when a strong baht is already hurting overseas sales.

 

Here's an idea: How about paring back those onerous import taxes?

[Soikhaonoiken]

Well no surprise there,   the same as many other Countries in the World.. 

[greenhornfarang]

What about the Chinese private jet millionaires?

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

thailand must keep it closed and disciplined until the vaccination will start.

it is amazing to realise how fast this virus moves.

just 3-4 weeks of losing control, and a whole country health system can collapse, resulting in tens

of thousands of deaths.

but the good news are that the vaccines do work. another few months and it should all be over.

[Bender Rodriguez]

panic over BRAINS

 

 

[Venom]

Just another nail in the coffin, and another, and another, and another....

[Sydebolle]

Can someone explain, why:

• Thai Airways International has grounded its entire fleet for months, Thai Smile (their subsidiary) is flying a fraction of their previous timetable while Viet Jet Air (based in Vietnam) with a subsidiary in Thailand flies domestic services as if there is no tomorrow?
• Four flights alone Bangkok-Udon-Bangkok, all operated (at least Monday this week) and a load factor of more than 50%. 

Just asking and wondering ........ 

[starky]

22 minutes ago, Sydebolle said:

Can someone explain, why:

• Thai Airways International has grounded its entire fleet for months, Thai Smile (their subsidiary) is flying a fraction of their previous timetable while Viet Jet Air (based in Vietnam) with a subsidiary in Thailand flies domestic services as if there is no tomorrow?
• Four flights alone Bangkok-Udon-Bangkok, all operated (at least Monday this week) and a load factor of more than 50%. 

Just asking and wondering ........ 

Don't know for sure but....would it not have something to do with Thai airways nearly going broke and being in receivership? Or possibly or more likely Vietjet can probably provide the service for far cheaper than the bloated national carrier can.

[eeworldwide]

12 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

Why the heck are we looking at a photograph from 2013?

Because thems were the good ol' days, laddie! Thems were the good ol' days, when the beer flowed like wine, and there was a girl in every boys bed, and spending was unfettered, the nights long and the days golden.. Interest rates were more favourable and the exchange rates even better. The baht bought bang for your buck and the buck bought booty.

Edited January 6, 2021 by eeworldwide

[Burma Bill]

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

seen derailing Thailand's economic recovery

In my opinion, already derailed:-

 

[steven100]

8 hours ago, greenhornfarang said:

What about the Chinese private jet millionaires?

coming soon   !

[FarFlungFalang]

8 hours ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

the good news are that the vaccines do work. another few months and it should all be over.

Thailands vaccination program doesn't start until May 2021,so maybe a few months after that.

[John Drake]

Not much talk about travel bubbles these days.