The "Game Changer" (that must come)...........

[Leaver]

9 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

Pretty sure that what the UK government would consider their vaccine rollout to be completed when every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine.

 

According to the announcement that has just been made, this will be by July 31.

 

All UK adults to be offered vaccine by July 31

 

Thanks.  I couldn't find a link with the completion date.

 

I think a lot in the tourism industry here believe that when western country populations have been vaccinated, then Thailand can open up the boarders, planes will be in the air, and tourists will be able to come back to Thailand.

 

This is not the case.

 

A majority of the Thai population will need to be vaccinated before tourism can start again.

 

Tourists hoping to come back to Thailand should now be looking at Thailand's procurement and distribution of the vaccine, and it's probably in the years, not months.

 

However, I have said, places like Phuket may be given the vaccine first, and the island quarantined from the mainland, so tourism can start up sooner rather than later. 

 

Edited February 21, 2021 by Leaver

[swissie]

2 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

Thanks.  I couldn't find a link with the completion date.

 

I think a lot in the tourism industry here believe that when western country populations have been vaccinated, then Thailand can open up the boarders, planes will be in the air, and tourists will be able to come back to Thailand.

 

This is not the case.

 

A majority of the Thai population will need to be vaccinated before tourism can start again.

 

Tourists hoping to come back to Thailand should now be looking at Thailand's procurement and distribution of the vaccine, and it's probably in the years, not months.

 

However, I have said, places like Phuket may be given the vaccine first, and the island quarantined from the mainland, so tourism can start up sooner rather than later. 

 

FLASH NEWS:

- The vaccination-champion of the world (Israel) communicates the following: Persons vaccinated with Biontech/Pfizer are 90% safe from spreading the virus to others. This means, that the majority of Thai people would not have to be vaccinated before the borders can be opened to (vaccinated) Tourists.

 

That gives a great boost to the Vaccination-Certificate Idea.

 

A minor problem remains (I know, I am starting to sound like a broken record): The global vaccination pace IS TOO SLOW!

[Leaver]

1 minute ago, swissie said:

FLASH NEWS:

- The vaccination-champion of the world (Israel) communicates the following: Persons vaccinated with Biontech/Pfizer are 90% safe from spreading the virus to others. This means, that the majority of Thai people would not have to be vaccinated before the borders can be opened to (vaccinated) Tourists.

 

That gives a great boost to the Vaccination-Certificate Idea.

 

A minor problem remains (I know, I am starting to sound like a broken record): The global vaccination pace IS TOO SLOW!

 

So, 1 in 10 who have been vaccinated can still contract the disease, carry the disease, and transmit the disease. 

 

Thailand opens it's boarders to millions, 10% of which possibly could be infected, but more realistically say 1% of that 10% are carrying the virus into Thailand.  That equals thousands of infected tourists coming to Thailand, infecting millions of Thai's.

 

Even at 0.10%, it's still hundreds of infected tourists coming to Thailand, and it spreads from there.

 

We saw what a few hookers and gamblers did to Thailand after returning from Myanmar. 

 

Your vaccination certificate is toilet paper until the majority of the Thai population have been vaccinated.   

 

 

[swissie]

On 2/19/2021 at 5:08 PM, tomazbodner said:

I remember you could buy a negative COVID test and vaccination passport in Serbia, apparently issued in the EU, for a few Euros without taking a test and without getting vaccinated. How would you know which is real and which isn't?

 

Additional trouble - Brazil strain of COVID is mostly bypassing immune system response - meaning vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca at least) are worth squat with this strain quickly spreading globally. Worse news yet, a new Finnish strain just discovered not only completely bypasses immune system built on vaccines, but isn't even detected by several WHO approved RT-PCR tests.

 

So we're basically at square one.

 

The big question is, after receiving your 15th Pfizer/Moderna shot that makes your own body to produce protein that your own immune system attacks, what will be the percentage of auto-immune illnesses among those vaccinated?

Interesting. Your news, that the Brazil-virus and a new "Finnish-Virus" is "bypassing" currently available vaccines has not reached the media yet.

Have any link concerning this?

[swissie]

32 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

So, 1 in 10 who have been vaccinated can still contract the disease, carry the disease, and transmit the disease. 

 

Thailand opens it's boarders to millions, 10% of which possibly could be infected, but more realistically say 1% of that 10% are carrying the virus into Thailand.  That equals thousands of infected tourists coming to Thailand, infecting millions of Thai's.

 

Even at 0.10%, it's still hundreds of infected tourists coming to Thailand, and it spreads from there.

 

We saw what a few hookers and gamblers did to Thailand after returning from Myanmar. 

 

Your vaccination certificate is toilet paper until the majority of the Thai population have been vaccinated.   

 

 

Mathematically you are absolutely correct. But I am afraid this is as good a it will get.
We can take it one step further: How long will it take to vaccinate the world population before travel/international exchange can take place again? 5 years, 10 years or never?
We have to start somewhere. Half of the wold-economy is kept from collapse by Taxpayers.
I am sure you will agree: This can not continue indefinitely. Again, we have to start somewhere.
Step by step, still with certain restrictions in place. What is the alternative? An eternally crippled world economy in combination with an desintegrating social fabric?

[Leaver]

32 minutes ago, swissie said:

Mathematically you are absolutely correct. But I am afraid this is as good a it will get.
We can take it one step further: How long will it take to vaccinate the world population before travel/international exchange can take place again? 5 years, 10 years or never?
We have to start somewhere. Half of the wold-economy is kept from collapse by Taxpayers.
I am sure you will agree: This can not continue indefinitely. Again, we have to start somewhere.
Step by step, still with certain restrictions in place. What is the alternative? An eternally crippled world economy in combination with an desintegrating social fabric?

 

As many western countries will be ahead of Thailand for their vaccination program, so too will Thailand be ahead of many other countries for their vaccination program.  Eg. many African nations.  Yes, it will take many years for the billions in every country to be vaccinated.  

 

If we are discussing Thailand's tourism industry, when their western tourism markets have been vaccinated, and the majority of Thai's have been vaccinated, then tourists from those countries will be allowed entry here, most probably with tourists having to prove they have been vaccinated before boarding a flight to Thailand.  Tourists from countries where the vaccine has not been rolled out, will not be allowed entry.    

 

Until then, it's in the hands of the Thai's.  The faster they roll out the vaccine, the faster tourism can start back up here, but it's simply not correct that a western person who has been vaccinated can come here tomorrow, just because they have a piece of paper saying they have been vaccinated.   

 

Edited February 21, 2021 by Leaver

[swissie]

46 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

As many western countries will be ahead of Thailand for their vaccination program, so too will Thailand be ahead of many other countries for their vaccination program.  Eg. many African nations.  Yes, it will take many years for the billions in every country to be vaccinated.  

 

If we are discussing Thailand's tourism industry, when their western tourism markets have been vaccinated, and the majority of Thai's have been vaccinated, then tourists from those countries will be allowed entry here, most probably with tourists having to prove they have been vaccinated before boarding a flight to Thailand.  Tourists from countries where the vaccine has not been rolled out, will not be allowed entry.    

 

Until then, it's in the hands of the Thai's.  The faster they roll out the vaccine, the faster tourism can start back up here, but it's simply not correct that a western person who has been vaccinated can come here tomorrow, just because they have a piece of paper saying they have been vaccinated.   

 

For Thailand there is hope.

As the Chinese seem to have developped an effective vaccine and the Chinese seeking more and more "International-Acceptance", I would not be surprised if this China-Vaccine finds it's way to Thailand soon. (Sooner then "the hard to get western vaccines").
If the Production Capacity surpasses the domestic need within China, they will be glad to export the vaccine. Why not first to neighboring countries like Thailand. A Win-Win situation for China as well as Thailand. A major propaganda coup for the Chinese and Prayut woulden't mind, I am sure.

Have no current facts to prove such future possibilities. But I would not be surprised, if certain "back-room" negotiations between Thailand and China are already taking place.
With the result, that Thailand may be vaccinated (as a whole), sooner than the last corner of Europe.
(The ability of Semi-Democracies to implement things can happen faster than in the "Full-Democracies" in the Western World).
There is hope for Thailand. I will not be surprised by any "Surprises" concerning this matter.

[Leaver]

20 minutes ago, swissie said:

For Thailand there is hope.

As the Chinese seem to have developped an effective vaccine and the Chinese seeking more and more "International-Acceptance", I would not be surprised if this China-Vaccine finds it's way to Thailand soon. (Sooner then "the hard to get western vaccines").
If the Production Capacity surpasses the domestic need within China, they will be glad to export the vaccine. Why not first to neighboring countries like Thailand. A Win-Win situation for China as well as Thailand. A major propaganda coup for the Chinese and Prayut woulden't mind, I am sure.

Have no current facts to prove such future possibilities. But I would not be surprised, if certain "back-room" negotiations between Thailand and China are already taking place.
With the result, that Thailand may be vaccinated (as a whole), sooner than the last corner of Europe.
(The ability of Semi-Democracies to implement things can happen faster than in the "Full-Democracies" in the Western World).
There is hope for Thailand. I will not be surprised by any "Surprises" concerning this matter.

 

Thailand is nothing to China.  Do you think Thailand has minerals, oil etc, that China needs?

 

There are over 1 billion Chinese to be vaccinated.

 

No way will the Chinese Communist Party even be seen to vaccinate another country before vaccinating Chinese nationals. 

 

Even if China had 1 billion vials sitting in warehouses right now, how long would it take to administer them to the people?   

 

For Thailand, and tourists wishing to come back to Thailand, and business owners in Thailand, it's 12 to 18 months, at best, and more likely 2 to 3 years, unless they fudge the figures here.

 

 

Edited February 21, 2021 by Leaver

[tomazbodner]

2 hours ago, swissie said:

Interesting. Your news, that the Brazil-virus and a new "Finnish-Virus" is "bypassing" currently available vaccines has not reached the media yet.

Have any link concerning this?

Saw it in non-English news, so I googled it up, and this was the first local hit from Finland:

 

https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/news-in-brief/18735-new-covid-variant-found-in-finland-may-not-show-up-in-tests.html

 

Brazil you can google as well but it's not as interesting. However what is interesting was today on CNN, they were hosting a doctor that's involved with the vaccination planning in South Africa. And he got asked by the host why they switched to Johnson&Johnson vaccine and didn't use over a million of Astra Zeneca shots they have already purchased. The man said that AstraZeneca claimed 70+ % efficiency however in the trials they've done, that was actually only 22% effective. They would rather remove it now than find out it doesn't work after they vaccinated a million people.

 

I remember the noise about Chinese vaccine being only barely over 50% effective and how nobody would take something as ineffective. Wonder whether these same posters would take a 22% effective one instead then...

 

The CNN program host was Robyn Curnow, and it was just before Living Golf today afternoon, maybe 4 pm. I think it was CNN Newsroom, but not sure. Wasn't paying much attention...

Edited February 21, 2021 by tomazbodner
added last paragraph

[swissie]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

 

Thailand is nothing to China.  Do you think Thailand has minerals, oil etc, that China needs?

 

There are over 1 billion Chinese to be vaccinated.

 

No way will the Chinese Communist Party even be seen to vaccinate another country before vaccinating Chinese nationals. 

 

Even if China had 1 billion vials sitting in warehouses right now, how long would it take to administer them to the people?   

 

For Thailand, and tourists wishing to come back to Thailand, and business owners in Thailand, it's 12 to 18 months, at best, and more likely 2 to 3 years, unless they fudge the figures here.

 

 

There are still a good number of western journalists in China. They agree: The virus in China is under contol. So, the Chinese may be sitting on "billions of doses" that they don't need.
- Look at what China is doing woldwide: Investing in Infra-Structure Projetcs in the third world massively. (At a price, of course. A certain Return of Investement must be part of the deal).
But that is not the main purpose of their 3rd world activities. The main purpose is to gain "International Acceptance" and to appear as the "hope of light" for "underprivileged" countries. (70% of countries?) It's all part of a long term strategy.

- So, to dispurse vaccines that are not needed in China would be a "low cost" way to increase the international standing of China. The propoganda effect would echo thruout the world. For China: Mission accomplished. The propaganda effect concerning Thailand would be massive, as Thailand is the country that is most connected to "the west" within SE/Asia. Saved by the Asian "brother-nation" called China and not by "western-powers" that still look at SE/Asian countries as merely cheap holiday destinations.

The ultimative propaganda victory for the Chinese. Do you think they will miss out on this unique opportunity?
At any rate, within 3 months, everything will look very different. For better or for worse. I am sure.

[swissie]

1 hour ago, tomazbodner said:

Saw it in non-English news, so I googled it up, and this was the first local hit from Finland:

 

https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/news-in-brief/18735-new-covid-variant-found-in-finland-may-not-show-up-in-tests.html

 

Brazil you can google as well but it's not as interesting. However what is interesting was today on CNN, they were hosting a doctor that's involved with the vaccination planning in South Africa. And he got asked by the host why they switched to Johnson&Johnson vaccine and didn't use over a million of Astra Zeneca shots they have already purchased. The man said that AstraZeneca claimed 70+ % efficiency however in the trials they've done, that was actually only 22% effective. They would rather remove it now than find out it doesn't work after they vaccinated a million people.

 

I remember the noise about Chinese vaccine being only barely over 50% effective and how nobody would take something as ineffective. Wonder whether these same posters would take a 22% effective one instead then...

 

The CNN program host was Robyn Curnow, and it was just before Living Golf today afternoon, maybe 4 pm. I think it was CNN Newsroom, but not sure. Wasn't paying much attention...

Thanks for reply. If there is really something to it, it will make the headlines in The New York Times tomorrow and other "no fake news" media.

 

[TaaSaparot]

4 hours ago, Leaver said:

Your vaccination certificate is toilet paper until the majority of the Thai population have been vaccinated.   

 

Unless Phuket & Samui vaccinate their populations, and then only allow vaccinated Tourists to enter on International Flights.

[swissie]

1 hour ago, swissie said:

There are still a good number of western journalists in China. They agree: The virus in China is under contol. So, the Chinese may be sitting on "billions of doses" that they don't need.
- Look at what China is doing woldwide: Investing in Infra-Structure Projetcs in the third world massively. (At a price, of course. A certain Return of Investement must be part of the deal).
But that is not the main purpose of their 3rd world activities. The main purpose is to gain "International Acceptance" and to appear as the "hope of light" for "underprivileged" countries. (70% of countries?) It's all part of a long term strategy.

- So, to dispurse vaccines that are not needed in China would be a "low cost" way to increase the international standing of China. The propoganda effect would echo thruout the world. For China: Mission accomplished. The propaganda effect concerning Thailand would be massive, as Thailand is the country that is most connected to "the west" within SE/Asia. Saved by the Asian "brother-nation" called China and not by "western-powers" that still look at SE/Asian countries as merely cheap holiday destinations.

The ultimative propaganda victory for the Chinese. Do you think they will miss out on this unique opportunity?
At any rate, within 3 months, everything will look very different. For better or for worse. I am sure.

Allow me a little PS:

Just read in sub-forum "Thailand News": DKSH to provide "SINOVAC" logistics to Thailand. Why would they provide Logistics if the vaccine was not available?
My future projections are already obsolete, as my future projections are already happening today.

"Leaver": In case you are interested in "Pattaya-Investements", you have to get active today, because 6 months from now, "Rock-Bottom" prices will be a thing of the past.
I wish I was 20 years younger. I would know what to do concerning the downtrodden hellhole called Pattaya of today.

 

[jacko45k]

8 hours ago, Leaver said:

So, 1 in 10 who have been vaccinated can still contract the disease, carry the disease, and transmit the disease.

No, the statement was  

Quote

Persons vaccinated with Biontech/Pfizer are 90% safe from spreading the virus to others.

No mention was made of the other 10%, and that their contraction and transmission rate was 100%. 

Edited February 21, 2021 by jacko45k

[tomazbodner]

6 hours ago, swissie said:

Thanks for reply. If there is really something to it, it will make the headlines in The New York Times tomorrow and other "no fake news" media.

 

Not on NYT but on Reuters and NYP. This is a quote from NYP:

 

“Vita Laboratoriot Oy and the Institute of Biotechnology at the University of Helsinki have detected a previously unknown variant of the coronavirus in a sample from southern Finland,” the lab said about the variant, dubbed “Fin-796H.”

“Mutations in this variant make it difficult to detect in at least one of the WHO-recommended PCR tests. This discovery could have a significant impact on determining the spread of the disease,” it added.

[Henryford]

What i don't understand is that if it so easy to eradicate Covid, after only 6 months why are we all still suffering from colds and flu every year?

[jacko45k]

4 hours ago, Henryford said:

What i don't understand is that if it so easy to eradicate Covid, after only 6 months why are we all still suffering from colds and flu every year?

What makes you think it will be eradicated? There is talk that there will be ongoing mutations that likely will require an annual booster Covid shot... just like flu.

[Henryford]

19 hours ago, jacko45k said:

What makes you think it will be eradicated? There is talk that there will be ongoing mutations that likely will require an annual booster Covid shot... just like flu.

 

Of course i was joking meaning that it won't be eradicated and we will suffer Covid restrictions for ever.

[jacko45k]

6 hours ago, Henryford said:

 

Of course i was joking meaning that it won't be eradicated and we will suffer Covid restrictions for ever.

Sorry, slipped by me.

[TaaSaparot]

On 2/22/2021 at 1:46 AM, Henryford said:

What i don't understand is that if it so easy to eradicate Covid, after only 6 months why are we all still suffering from colds and flu every year?

 

Who is suffering? ... heard of no one suffering of a cold/flu in the UK this winter.

[swissie]

Every thread is bound to "fizzle out" over time. Mostly due to the fact that at one point "everything has been said".

This time there is an additional factor coming into play: My (futuristic) predictions concerning a "Internationally Accepted Vaccination Certificate" is already in the making as I speak (write).
Depending on the pace of (hopefully) increased global vaccination-rates, tourism to Thailand may well start by the end of the 2nd quarter and not by the 3rd quarter, as the TAT predicts.
Travel Agents and Airlines are firing up their engines already.

 

Of course, if we give the Virus enough time to mutate into a real "killer" all future predictions become obsolete. Not only concerning Tourism.
We shall see.

[kingdong]

On 2/19/2021 at 3:14 PM, Leaver said:

 

It's not about what the UK want.  It's about what the countries receiving tourists want.  

 

If Thailand, and many other countries, insist on proof of vaccination, than the NHS, through government policy, will be obliged to provide such proof. 

 

This will allow people to travel internationally to such countries that require the document.

 

Of course, proof of vaccination will be worthless inside the UK.

 

Basically, as far as many countries in the world will be concerned, no vaccination, and proof thereof, no boarding the fight and no entry.  

Theres nothing new in " health passports" 45 years ago i travelled overland through africa and had to have a card with all my vaccinations on.a lot of countries wouldn,t let you in if you hadn,t had up to date vaccinations.

Edited February 25, 2021 by kingdong

[TaaSaparot]

4 hours ago, swissie said:

Every thread is bound to "fizzle out" over time. Mostly due to the fact that at one point "everything has been said".

 

At this present time, mandatory Vaccine Passports is a ridiculous idea.

 

 

[Leaver]

On 2/22/2021 at 1:54 AM, TaaSaparot said:

 

Unless Phuket & Samui vaccinate their populations, and then only allow vaccinated Tourists to enter on International Flights.

 

I have mentioned that in previous posts.  It would seem to be the sensible prioritising of the vaccine, in order to start the tourism industry, safely.  

[Leaver]

18 hours ago, kingdong said:

Theres nothing new in " health passports" 45 years ago i travelled overland through africa and had to have a card with all my vaccinations on.a lot of countries wouldn,t let you in if you hadn,t had up to date vaccinations.

 

I still travel with my Yellow Fever book.  

 

The problem is, the vaccine for Covid doesn't stop you getting it, and spreading it.  So, proof of vaccination is useless when hoping to go to a country where the population hasn't been vaccinated yet.  

 

By the time Thailand has vaccinated the population to a percentage that will allow tourism, most of the western countries that make up Thailand's tourism market will have already been vaccinated, so whilst a vaccination certificate may still be required, it will not mean much.  

[Leaver]

On 2/22/2021 at 5:41 AM, jacko45k said:

No, the statement was  

No mention was made of the other 10%, and that their contraction and transmission rate was 100%. 

 

If you read again, I gave the example of 1 in 10, the 10%. Then 1% of that 10%.  Then 0.10%.  These percentages equal thousands / hundreds of possibly infected people entering Thailand as tourists, despite being vaccinated in their home country.  

 

Edited February 26, 2021 by Leaver

[kingdong]

3 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

I still travel with my Yellow Fever book.  

 

The problem is, the vaccine for Covid doesn't stop you getting it, and spreading it.  So, proof of vaccination is useless when hoping to go to a country where the population hasn't been vaccinated yet.  

 

By the time Thailand has vaccinated the population to a percentage that will allow tourism, most of the western countries that make up Thailand's tourism market will have already been vaccinated, so whilst a vaccination certificate may still be required, it will not mean much.  

Western countries.gain in tourism,thailands loss.

[sirineou]

On 2/21/2021 at 8:46 PM, Henryford said:

What i don't understand is that if it so easy to eradicate Covid, after only 6 months why are we all still suffering from colds and flu every year?

Because it is a different "Flue" every year.

No guaranty , that there will nit be a Covit22  next year  that will require a buster vaccine . In fact it is almost certain. 

[sirineou]

Digital Vaccine Passports gain momentum as EU agrees on their implementation by this summer. This does not mean that individual countries can not implement their own policy earlier,.

 

"Digital vaccination certificates enabling people to travel in Europe despite the coronavirus pandemic will probably be available before the summer, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after a virtual EU summit on Thursday. Germany was one of the opponents of the certificate. "

"https://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2021/02/26/eu-vaccination-certificate-leaders-summit/#.YDjkpixe2Pk.facebook "

[Solinvictus]

4 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

I have mentioned that in previous posts.  It would seem to be the sensible prioritising of the vaccine, in order to start the tourism industry, safely.  

That is a very good point. Surely they would be considering this, one would think.