Jump to content

SURVEY: Cryptocurrencies -- wave of the future or disaster waiting to happen?


Scott

SURVEY: Cryptocurrencies -- wave of the future or disaster waiting to happen?  

260 members have voted

You do not have permission to vote in this poll, or see the poll results. Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I remember I read an article about a coffee shop which allowed payment with Bitcoins. Some customers liked it, a modern payment system, fine.

But soon later the owner didn't accept Bitcoins payments anymore because it was just too volatile. Every day different prices (or exchange rates, every day changing money because tomorrow the exchange rate will be different. Or maybe keeping the money because soon the price will go up....

Crypto currencies might be interesting for people to speculate or gamble. But for everyday payments they don't make much sense - except people want to hide what they pay for or where the money comes from.

For "normal people" it's a lot of headache without advantage. 

 

Think of a Bitcoin as a gold bar, would you pay for your coffee with a big lump of gold?

 

It was never going to be a day to day currency to pay for your groceries. Many thought it would be but they were wrong.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, allanos said:

...

One poster has constantly been stating that the price of Bitcoin is simply a function of too much demand chasing too little supply. As things stand, there is enough supply, so the argument doesn't hold water. This position will however, change, going forward, as greater adoption of Bitcoin takes place, by individuals, corporates and institutions, and maybe even some (smaller) central banks.  Those who are prepared to hold on to their, perhaps speculative investment in the digital currency, like myself, are taking a calculated risk, that's all.

...

You were probably referring to my earlier posts, in which I stated that the bying-rate for Bitcoin is solely determined by supply-demand for the coin.

Since the underlying value of Bitcoin is 'moot', supply-demand for the coin is the only available mechanism by which Bitcoin exchanges determine the selling/buying price.

And it are the 'whales' - those holding large amounts of Bitcoin - that play this Game of buying/offering Bitcoins to hike the price up or down (in both cases they win).  There are even clubs of Bitcoin-holders, that join forces to manipulate the price-level for their advantage.

 

You wrote As things stand, there is enough supply, so the argument doesn't hold water.

If there is enough supply (which means those holding or mining Bitcoin looking for buyers) how then can the price go up?

But with large organizations now embracing Bitcoin, there is more demand than supply and this hikes up the price.

 

It is not because you did buy Bitcoin and the price went up, providing you with big gains when selling them again, that you necessarily understand the pricing mechanism.

Also be aware that if you are a 'hodler' (holding your coins and not selling them), that it is only when you actually sell them against 'real world fiat-money' that you are actually making a profit.  When not selling but holding them, you only have some 'numbers on the Blockchain' which are currently in demand, but that might change virtually overnight. 

Edited by Peter Denis
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The worlds largest investment banks are now getting publicly involved.

 

I suspect they have been quietly acquiring holdings for some time (like a few years).

When you hear names like Morgan Stanley, BNY Mellon, etc linked with SEC filings then you know it's hit the big time.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Started reading about coins lately and read about XRP and their court case.

Price is very low now and if they succeed people are saying it could make some serious money.

Obviously bitcoin and Eurethem are the big boys but is it possible for another to come through with big numbers or is this a coke and Pepsi thing?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

I wouldn't trust hedge fund managers, bankers or financial advisors.

 

But they still keep calling me selling their services even though I have told them to f off several times. ????

I wouldn't trust them if they want to sell me something.

But if I have friends with many years expertise in investing money I would be stupid to ignore their expert advice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Good for you knowing one banker and a hedge fund manager. ????

There are many more out there that recommend it and are now making it a small part of their portfolios.

 

Blackrock is the worlds largest asset management company:

BlackRock is set to dip its considerably massive toes into the world of cryptoassets, according to public filings and reports by a number of outlets.

The gargantuan money manager headed by Larry Fink has filed to offer its clients exposure to bitcoin futures BTC.1, 4.64% through funds, BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities BSIIX,

 

If Blackrock thought it was some scam or bogus I doubt they would make this commitment.

 

Who should you trust?  Not me, I am just some know nothing on TVF.

But, do your research and education and of course my recommendation from there would be: trust your judgement and yourself.

Maybe I should have written that a little different.

The people I talked about are my friends and I know them not because I invested any money with them.

They personally with their own money don't touch Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency. That is reason enough for me to stay away from those "investments". 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Peter Denis said:

You were probably referring to my earlier posts, in which I stated that the bying-rate for Bitcoin is solely determined by supply-demand for the coin.

Since the underlying value of Bitcoin is 'moot', supply-demand for the coin is the only available mechanism by which Bitcoin exchanges determine the selling/buying price.

And it are the 'whales' - those holding large amounts of Bitcoin - that play this Game of buying/offering Bitcoins to hike the price up or down (in both cases they win).  There are even clubs of Bitcoin-holders, that join forces to manipulate the price-level for their advantage.

 

You wrote As things stand, there is enough supply, so the argument doesn't hold water.

If there is enough supply (which means those holding or mining Bitcoin looking for buyers) how then can the price go up?

But with large organizations now embracing Bitcoin, there is more demand than supply and this hikes up the price.

 

It is not because you did buy Bitcoin and the price went up, providing you with big gains when selling them again, that you necessarily understand the pricing mechanism.

Also be aware that if you are a 'hodler' (holding your coins and not selling them), that it is only when you actually sell them against 'real world fiat-money' that you are actually making a profit.  When not selling but holding them, you only have some 'numbers on the Blockchain' which are currently in demand, but that might change virtually overnight. 

Having read all of your posts on this subject, it would seem that your "world view" is clouded by much too much subjectivity. Please do not take this as a criticism; it is an outsider's observation, that's all.

 

And not to say that you are wrong, but simply that I can't agree with you. I believe my thoughts have been founded in objectivity.

 

Supply and demand can simply be one factor in the rise of Bitcoin, but where is the lack of supply? There is a ready availability on exchanges, it's clear.  Personally, I have had no problem in buying BTC. Many miners have been holding on to the Bitcoin mined years ago, waiting for moments like this to sell into the market, for example.

 

Then, there is FOMO - the fear of missing out.  As the price rises, and early adopters of Bitcoin are able to achieve large profits, so human nature decrees that others will "chase the price" higher, trying to get on the bandwagon. (It has been observed that by the time one even sees the bandwagon, it is already too late)!

 

I would point to perceived value as being a driver of price. People who believe that the spot price of Bitcoin represents fair value, at any stage of its being, will be prepared to pay the asked price.  Of course, they should understand that the price may drop, but, should it do so, they don't have to sell. They will have relied on their own judgement. How does one place a value on anything? It is the value in the eyes of the beholder prepared to pay a particular price at a particular point in time. Although there are certain other influencing factors we  could look to, art auctions are an example, but by no means the only one. We mustn't believed that a painting is bought only because it looks pretty!

 

Large entities who have bought into the Bitcoin narrative have determined the long-term value of Bitcoin to them, and their corporate goals and aims is worth the present, and ever-rising spot price. One has to assume, in the absence of any absolute mechanism to decide what is fair value, that they have some idea of what they are doing.

 

A lesser mortal, like me, doesn't really need to debate the issues of what is driving the Bitcoin price, be it supply and demand factors, or something arcane which may be unknown to any of us. 

 

I remain pleased that I bought into BTC when I did and am now showing a "notional profit", )it's true, of close to 400%.

 

 

Edited by allanos
typo
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Does it really matter if you buy a coffee or a car or a house?

If you decide today you buy and tomorrow you want to pay you have to worry about the exchange rate for tomorrow. One day might make the difference between a good deal and a bad deal. That doesn't make much sense.

Yes, it's about the transaction fee being more than the transaction.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, allanos said:

...

Supply and demand can simply be one factor in the rise of Bitcoin, but where is the lack of supply? There is a ready availability on exchanges, it's clear.  Personally, I have had no problem in buying BTC. Many miners have been holding on to the Bitcoin mined years ago, waiting for moments like this to sell into the market, for example.

...

Unless you mine Bitcoin yourself, you normally buy they from an exchange.

When you do some research on how these exchanges determine the selling/buying price of Bitcoin, you will have your answer...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

Unless you mine Bitcoin yourself, you normally buy they from an exchange.

When you do some research on how these exchanges determine the selling/buying price of Bitcoin, you will have your answer...

Indeed, and it is clear to me that you have never, yourself, bought Bitcoin, but like to sit on the sidelines and input from a theoretical or hypothetical viewpoint, rather than a real-world one. Perhaps you should have followed your brother's example . . 

Edited by allanos
typo
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its based on FIAT currency, and we know where that going, down the plughole.

I still have a 50,000,000 Mark note from the Weimar Republic, enough to buy

a carrot I believe.

Edited by talahtnut
spelling
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As far as I understand Bitcoins are only some data-files stored on computers that has no real value and is backed up by nobody.

Yes I know there are some complex keys involved and there is a maximum no of bitcoins possible.

 

The value is that people believe in it and you may be able to buy some things for it but not everyday small things as there are too expensive fees involved for small amounts.

 

Even if goes well for a long time I think a problem may be that there are more and more digital currencies created.

 

Time will tell if people will continue to make money from rising prices of Bitcoins. I bet some will end up losing.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Misty said:

 

Point simply being that there's no price stability.  Impossible to use as currency with that type of expected deflation.


We don't care about price stability as long as, overall, it retains its value better than fiat currencies.

The dollar loses value. The prices of most products rise. The value of Bitcoin rises more. I don't care if the current price of Bitcoin, $52k, drops overnight to $48k. The important thing is that I can still use it to buy more Mars Bars than if, back in March, I had just left $5k in my bank.

Bitcoin's volatility is a good thing. While the swings in a given week may feel unnerving, the whole point is that these unique market conditions make it inevitable that the price will continue to rise. Perhaps not as much as some pundits are claiming, but the fundamentals are sound and it is highly unlikely that anyone willing to hold their Bitcoin for more than 3 months is going to lose money.

People are understandably worried about buying at a high but, so far, despite short-term fallbacks, every high has been superseded by new highs. You just need a little patience. People buying right now at 52k might see it fall 10% the next day (or, indeed, rise 10%) but that only matters if they were planning to sell the next day.

As I keep saying to everyone, take a hundred dollars, convert it to Bitcoin and, then, forget about it. Ignore the highs, ignore the lows, just leave it there and give yourself a nice surprise at the end of the year.

As for using my Bitcoin, at anytime, night or day, I can press a button and instantly sell any amount of it for my choice of fiat currency. I can then press another button and, ten minutes later, that fiat currency is sitting in my bank account, ready to be spent. We all keep money in our bank accounts. Think of Bitcoin as being a different, higher-yield section of your bank account, but one that allows near-immediate withdrawal.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Pravda said:

I never understood this limited supply argument. It's very unlimited as bitcoin can be satoshed, forked and lose value as new crypto becomes available. 


Other coins are not Bitcoin. Forks of Bitcoin are not Bitcoin.

A satoshi is just a division of an existing Bitcoin, in the same way that a satang is a division of an existing Baht. No new Bitcoins are created.

In the coming years, most people will count their Bitcoin in Satoshis, with one Satoshi being worth a millionth of a Bitcoin. Very few individuals will own an entire Bitcoin, in the same way that only one human in 4 million is a billionaire, but nation states, banks, and large companies will hold entire Bitcoins as part of their reserves.

Fiat currencies work the other way around. In the past, an individual dollar could buy more than it does today. Just a few decades ago, it was a mark of distinction to be known as a millionaire but, today, practically everyone on this forum (apart from the English teachers) is a millionaire if you include the total value of their properties, investments, and pensions.

Currencies whose supply can be expanded without limit lose value. Currencies whose supply has a hard limit gain value.
 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, donnacha said:


We don't care about price stability as long as, overall, it retains its value better than fiat currencies.

The dollar loses value. The prices of most products rise. The value of Bitcoin rises more. I don't care if the current price of Bitcoin, $52k, drops overnight to $48k. The important thing is that I can still use it to buy more Mars Bars than if, back in March, I had just left $5k in my bank.

Bitcoin's volatility is a good thing. While the swings in a given week may feel unnerving, the whole point is that these unique market conditions make it inevitable that the price will continue to rise. Perhaps not as much as some pundits are claiming, but the fundamentals are sound and it is highly unlikely that anyone willing to hold their Bitcoin for more than 3 months is going to lose money.

People are understandably worried about buying at a high but, so far, despite short-term fallbacks, every high has been superseded by new highs. You just need a little patience. People buying right now at 52k might see it fall 10% the next day (or, indeed, rise 10%) but that only matters if they were planning to sell the next day.

As I keep saying to everyone, take a hundred dollars, convert it to Bitcoin and, then, forget about it. Ignore the highs, ignore the lows, just leave it there and give yourself a nice surprise at the end of the year.

As for using my Bitcoin, at anytime, night or day, I can press a button and instantly sell any amount of it for my choice of fiat currency. I can then press another button and, ten minutes later, that fiat currency is sitting in my bank account, ready to be spent. We all keep money in our bank accounts. Think of Bitcoin as being a different, higher-yield section of your bank account, but one that allows near-immediate withdrawal.

 

 

Price stability is a requirement for economies to work. That's a fact, and why bitcoin can never be a currency - it is structurally flawed.  Right now the interest in it is because the market price has gone up - either FOMO or maybe Greater Fool Theory at play.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Misty said:

 

Price stability is a requirement for economies to work. That's a fact, and why bitcoin can never be a currency - it is structurally flawed.  Right now the interest in it is because the market price has gone up - either FOMO or maybe Greater Fool Theory at play.

 

At present Bitcoin is classed mostly as a store of value with height yield not a day to day currency but as more and more institutions are investing/buying in , it will by definition get less volatile and stability will come only then will the Satoshis become more relevant as a day to day currency. People still today don't realize they cant start saving Bitcoin with small amounts of investment weekly ,monthly etc.

Volatility is generally acceptable if its in a upward trajectory. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, donnacha said:

Other coins are not Bitcoin. Forks of Bitcoin are not Bitcoin.

A satoshi is just a division of an existing Bitcoin, in the same way that a satang is a division of an existing Baht. No new Bitcoins are created.

In the coming years, most people will count their Bitcoin in Satoshis, with one Satoshi being worth a millionth of a Bitcoin. Very few individuals will own an entire Bitcoin, in the same way that only one human in 4 million is a billionaire, but nation states, banks, and large companies will hold entire Bitcoins as part of their reserves.

Fiat currencies work the other way around. In the past, an individual dollar could buy more than it does today. Just a few decades ago, it was a mark of distinction to be known as a millionaire but, today, practically everyone on this forum (apart from the English teachers) is a millionaire if you include the total value of their properties, investments, and pensions.

Currencies whose supply can be expanded without limit lose value. Currencies whose supply has a hard limit gain value.

Although we disagree about the soundness of Bitcoin's fundamentals, I fully agree with your post.

One comment > You wrote: Currencies whose supply can be expanded without limit lose value. Currencies whose supply has a hard limit gain value.

Re that last statement > In the cas.e of Bitcoin that is only correct when demand for the coin is higher than the 'supply' (meaning Bitcoin-holders willing to sell some or all of their Bitcoin at the current price). The combination of

- large organizations buying up Bitcoins;

- the public becoming increasingly aware that the current financial system is 'not sound' (e.g. all the billions of fiat-money being printed to deal with the covid-crisis), and looking for alternatives;

- much easier now to buy Bitcoin, so even a non-techie can now buy Bitcoiins;

makes it a 'no-brainer' that the Bitcoin-price will keep rising.

The main concern would be that national governments could make Bitcoin-trading illegal, but with large organizations now stepping into it, that risk is getting smaller.

Whether the 'sky is the limit' for the Bitcoin-price remains to be seen, but fully agree that there is still plenty of rising potential.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Misty said:

Price stability is a requirement for economies to work. That's a fact, and why bitcoin can never be a currency - it is structurally flawed.  Right now the interest in it is because the market price has gone up - either FOMO or maybe Greater Fool Theory at play.

I actually was of same conviction until the covid-crisis hit us, all the craziness associated with how governments handled that and the public accepting and even embracing it, made me change my mind.

There seems to be a much larger reservoir of Greater Fools available than I once thought, and many of the non-foolish that do understand that Bitcoin is not based on sound fundamentals do now take an opportunistic stance (Fear of Missing out is also a strong driver there).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Sharp said:

At present Bitcoin is classed mostly as a store of value with height yield not a day to day currency but as more and more institutions are investing/buying in , it will by definition get less volatile and stability will come only then will the Satoshis become more relevant as a day to day currency. People still today don't realize they cant start saving Bitcoin with small amounts of investment weekly ,monthly etc.

Volatility is generally acceptable if its in a upward trajectory. 

Sorry, but some logic flaws here.  Something with limited, and eventually fixed, supply, will never be stable.  Deflation is built into the bitcoin structure - and why it is flawed.  Deflation - even a little- is toxic to any economy.  Deflation actually results in a currency being used less and less - why pay for something today in bitcoin, when you think it will cost significantly less in the future? 

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

I actually was of same conviction until the covid-crisis hit us, all the craziness associated with how governments handled that and the public accepting and even embracing it, made me change my mind.

There seems to be a much larger reservoir of Greater Fools available than I once thought, and many of the non-foolish that do understand that Bitcoin is not based on sound fundamentals do now take an opportunistic stance (Fear of Missing out is also a strong driver there).

 

Greater Fool Theory and FOMO are both related to speculative trading. The current speculation situation could persist for a long period.  Not all participating are fools, some are simply exploiting the fools.  But make no mistake - there's nothing "fundamental" about bitcoin no matter what blue sky it trades at, and it cannot be a currency. 

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Misty said:

Sorry, but some logic flaws here.  Something with limited, and eventually fixed, supply, will never be stable.  Deflation is built into the bitcoin structure - and why it is flawed.  Deflation - even a little- is toxic to any economy.  Deflation actually results in a currency being used less and less - why pay for something today in bitcoin, when you think it will cost significantly less in the future? 

Bitcoin isnt deflationary asset since its total supply doesn't decrease every year but i guess we have differing views on my logic.????

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.





×
×
  • Create New...