Thailand records its first case of South African strain of COVID-19

[Suua]

Another post from the same thread.......

 

There are 1318 hospitals in Thailand. 

Thailands death rate is 7.068 per 1000 Of population. Approx 500,000 people die each year anyway. 
If there were 20,000 or even 50,000 additional deaths, would it be noticed when decided amongst alI the hospitals 
??? 

Of course, not everyone dies - for arguments sake. say 50% of people die in a hospital Thats 250.000 across 1600 
hospitals: 

Would an extra 3 deaths per month be noticeable 

Looking at the numbers vs the argument that if there were more covid-19 it would be noticeable, I don't think it 
would. The vast majority of cases are asymptomatic anyway and thus not noticeable if there is little testing and 
spread amongst the hospitals an additional handful of deaths per month is also not really notable. 

Of course there are flaws in the above logic with regards to population clusters etc, however the point is made to 
highlight the relatively small numbers and the fact that it would be easy not to notice higher numbers. 

Edited February 15, 2021 by Suua

[Bkk Brian]

41 minutes ago, Suua said:

Correct, I have the post by 'Dr.turner' a former regular on this forum.....I'll try and dig it out. 

The link to it is here https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046

 

 

[Fex Bluse]

4 hours ago, overherebc said:

I go for Wuhuflu.

Or KungFlu

[metisdead]

Some off topic deflection posts and replies about the origination of the Spanish Flu have been removed. 

[Fex Bluse]

44 minutes ago, Percy P said:

But did it actually start in China.Who not sure.

We can never be certain. Same same we cannot know for sure if water is wet or the sky is up. It's all up to our perception. Perception is reality. 

[shortstop]

8 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

I just love how nobody is able to call the virus the China virus but everyone is so eager to attribute the strains to specific countries. 

 

I'm calling the China Virus. 

Of course the virus came from China. 

 

But as  the original strain there is no need to label it as the China Virus.  Some politicians in order to deflect attention from their country's poor pandemic response gleefully blame China.  Since I don't want to be mistaken as a supporter of these politicians, I prefer to use the medical term Covid-19.

 

 

Edited February 15, 2021 by shortstop

[rabas]

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The link to it is here https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046

This BBC article estimates 2% excess death in Thailand but shows no graph.

The NYT article I posted shows no excess deaths (< 0) and gives a graph.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

What is the difference? 

 

You cannot just average excess deaths over the past few years. you must also compare the yearly variation, which can be significant, certainly more than 2%. The 2% is not significant. Yearly deaths also naturally climb from year to year because of population increase, and ageing populations, like Thailand. 2% pretty much means nothing. This is likely where DrTuner was off in his estimate. I was there.

 

For reference on yearly variations.

 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/thoughts-on-estimating-excess-mortality-from-covid-19/

 

[Alidiver]

You don't need bodies in the street. 

Road deaths make make Covid insignificant. 

With only just over one million tests in Thailand and without free hospitals No one knows. I'm sure that there is herd immunity from the previous seven different outbreak of SARs since H1N1 in 2009.

Edited February 15, 2021 by Alidiver
Typo

[rabas]

8 minutes ago, shortstop said:

Of course the virus came from China. 

 

But as  the original strain there is no need to label it as the China Virus.  Some politicians in order to deflect attention from their country's poor pandemic response gleefully blame China.  Since I don't want to mistaken as a supporter of these politicians, I prefer to use the medical term Covid-19.

There was a Wuhan strain according to the Chinese. They observed a slow 'S' strain that spread through China just before Chinese New Year and a more aggressive 'L' strain the arose in Wuhan causing all the havoc.

 

That they call the Wuhan strain.

[DavisH]

5 hours ago, SwampyThai said:

We live in a small farming village, 3 deaths due to turbucloses in the last 4 weeks ????????The temple has been rather busy recently.

Well, tuberculosis is caused by a bacteria. Glad the Thai doctors tested and showed it wasn't covid then. 

[Bkk Brian]

6 minutes ago, rabas said:

This BBC article estimates 2% excess death in Thailand but shows no graph.

The NYT article I posted shows no excess deaths (< 0) and gives a graph.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

What is the difference? 

 

You cannot just average excess deaths over the past few years. you must also compare the yearly variation, which can be significant, certainly more than 2%. The 2% is not significant. Yearly deaths also naturally climb from year to year because of population increase, and ageing populations, like Thailand. 2% pretty much means nothing. This is likely where DrTuner was off in his estimate. I was there.

 

For reference on yearly variations.

 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/thoughts-on-estimating-excess-mortality-from-covid-19/

 

You have to click the read more button ????

[DavisH]

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

The numbers on unknown viral pneumonia deaths stopped being published when they reached 3600 early last year. 

false

[DavisH]

1 hour ago, possum1931 said:

"They're doing a great job here."  Is that the unelected "PM" and his soldiers you are referring to? Are you not aware of who is partly responsible for this wave of the Chinese virus by letting the illegal Burmese workers in to Thailand without quarantine?

The PM was elected. Stop with the BS. We are NOT under a military regime, no matter what the moaning drunk falangs think. 

[DavisH]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

You have to click the read more button ????

The dotted line is also an average of, I think , the 5 previous years. If all data were plotted, the 'excess deaths' would be indistinguishable from past data. 

[rabas]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

You have to click the read more button ????

 

Kindly read my careful explanation why 2% is statistically insignificant. It does not mean much.

 

It's the least you can do after quoting my post!

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

3 minutes ago, DavisH said:

false

So what was the total of unknown viral pneumonia deaths last year and where are they published?If you please.

[AlQaholic]

40 minutes ago, Suua said:

Another post from the same thread.......

 

There are 1318 hospitals in Thailand. 

Thailands death rate is 7.068 per 1000 Of population. Approx 500,000 people die each year anyway. 
If there were 20,000 or even 50,000 additional deaths, would it be noticed when decided amongst alI the hospitals 
??? 

Of course, not everyone dies - for arguments sake. say 50% of people die in a hospital Thats 250.000 across 1600 
hospitals: 

Would an extra 3 deaths per month be noticeable 

Looking at the numbers vs the argument that if there were more covid-19 it would be noticeable, I don't think it 
would. The vast majority of cases are asymptomatic anyway and thus not noticeable if there is little testing and 
spread amongst the hospitals an additional handful of deaths per month is also not really notable. 

Of course there are flaws in the above logic with regards to population clusters etc, however the point is made to 
highlight the relatively small numbers and the fact that it would be easy not to notice higher numbers. 

I think your logic makes sense. Only problem is, the cases would be concentrated around spreader events, so hospitals in a particular area would have noticeable increases in hospitalizations and deaths. Maybe because everyone actually wears masks in Thailand and hand sanitizes frequently, the spread is more subdued, hence not noticed by the larger public?

Our family has masks and hand sanitizers everywhere, in the house, car, office, pockets.

Edited February 15, 2021 by AlQaholic

[DavisH]

9 minutes ago, Alidiver said:

You don't need bodies in the street. 

Road deaths make make Covid insignificant. 

With only just over one million tests in Thailand and without free hospitals No one knows. I'm sure that there is herd immunity from the previous seven different outbreak of SARs since H1N1 in 2009.

Prevousl coronavirus ooutbreaks can indeed increase t-cell counts and confer some immunity in the population. This may explain the high percent of asymptomatic carriers here. Covid could have been in Samut Sakorn for 2 months (since the large ourbreak in Myanmar) before the symptomatic case was found.

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Kindly read my careful explanation why 2% is statistically insignificant. It does not mean much.

 

It's the least you can do after quoting my post!

 

 

I did read it, I quoted your entire post what more do you want me to do! I also added the graph that you had not found.

 

However you say its statistically insignificant? I differ in opinion and find it remarkably significant, I also think the BBC did.

[NoshowJones]

Just now, DavisH said:

The PM was elected. Stop with the BS. We are NOT under a military regime, no matter what the moaning drunk falangs think. 

Who elected him then? It certainly wasn't the Thai people.  A "PM" who was educated at a Military Academy?? and you say we are not under a military regime?? Who's with the BS now?? and by the way Sunshine, I have not had an alcoholic drink in my life.

[Pmbkk]

6 hours ago, SwampyThai said:

Nope not correct, HIV crossed from chimps to humans in the 1920s in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo

 

There just happened to be a guy from San Francisco looking for a bit of R&R there at the time  ????

[Suua]

1 minute ago, DavisH said:

Prevousl coronavirus ooutbreaks can indeed increase t-cell counts and confer some immunity in the population. This may explain the high percent of asymptomatic carriers here. Covid could have been in Samut Sakorn for 2 months (since the large ourbreak in Myanmar) before the symptomatic case was found.

Quite possibly.....the problem from this 'bury your head in the sand' approach of no testing, no isolating, means you're allowing the virus to mutate unchecked which could lead to something much more sinister. 

It needs to be found and removed from circulation asap....period. 

[AlQaholic]

47 minutes ago, rabas said:

This BBC article estimates 2% excess death in Thailand but shows no graph.

The NYT article I posted shows no excess deaths (< 0) and gives a graph.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

What is the difference? 

 

You cannot just average excess deaths over the past few years. you must also compare the yearly variation, which can be significant, certainly more than 2%. The 2% is not significant. Yearly deaths also naturally climb from year to year because of population increase, and ageing populations, like Thailand. 2% pretty much means nothing. This is likely where DrTuner was off in his estimate. I was there.

 

For reference on yearly variations.

 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/thoughts-on-estimating-excess-mortality-from-covid-19/

 

The death rate in Thailand has steadily increased the last 20 years at least, totally unrelated to COVID-19:

https://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=th&v=26

BBC maybe just compared 2018 or 2019 with 2021 or something like that?

Update: if we take the death rate from 2017 at 8.0 and compare with 8.31 in 2020, which is following the steady increase curve since 2000, we get roughly the BBC figure of excess deaths of about 23,000, shoddy journalism.

Edited February 15, 2021 by AlQaholic

[FritsSikkink]

9 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

I just love how nobody is able to call the virus the China virus but everyone is so eager to attribute the strains to specific countries. 

 

I'm calling the China Virus. 

We know you have a problem with China.

[NanLaew]

1 hour ago, Medelline said:

First case and death  of hiv /aids was recorded in America, America being America quickly to puss to clean themselves  and blame everything to the defenceless one  at the end of the day its all spread all over the world because nowobe wanted to be blamed instead of containing it it all spread to the third world and its still spreading right now if Americans wanted to fight and find the cure quickly they could have only wanted to prove its power 

 

Ummm... "A comma for two hundred Alex."

[steevjee]

7 hours ago, Ian C HH said:

So what IS the answer to the lack of deaths and empty hospitals IYHO? 
A sincere question because it’s baffled me for a long time. I don’t believe you can hide deaths and overflowing hospitals  in today’s transparent media without a Google gagging onset?

I'm interested to know how indeed you are privy to know how many deaths have occurred in Thai hospitals since Covid first appeared?

I guarantee that you are not and how hard would it be for a Military Government to hold a gun to the heads of those who might talk?

[reckless]

9 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

I just love how nobody is able to call the virus the China virus but everyone is so eager to attribute the strains to specific countries. 

 

I'm calling the China Virus. 

I trust then that you can’t take offence when Angela Merkel calls the UK variant the British virus 

[PGSan]

5 hours ago, overherebc said:

I go for Wuhuflu.

Or boohoofloo?

[PGSan]

28 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

We know you have a problem with China.

Putting it very mildly! 

[PGSan]

31 minutes ago, AlQaholic said:

death rate . .  . at 8.0

Is that rate the number of deaths per 100,000 of population per year?  Thanks for  answering.